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提供所蒐集相關資訊 以期對電子產業有更確切的了解
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TI's Chips Will Make 2012's Tablets Real-Time 3-D Supercomputers Texas Instruments has just outed a chip well ahead of its 2012 availability date, but it's such a hot ticket item it's worth knowing about--because it may enable your tablet PCs of next year to surpass your laptops of this year, with whizbang features like real-time 3-D video. The OMAP 5 chip packs two ARM Cortex A15 cores inside (a tech we've covered before) running at up to 2GHz. So right from the start it'll outperform the single-core 1GHz chips inside the current crop of tablet PCs--including the Cortex A8-based iPad--as well being twice as fast as upcoming A9-based tablets, which may include the iPad 2. Cleverly, there are also two Cortex M4 processors aboard the sliver of silicon, ready to take on the humdrum tasks that your typical tablet PC (or possibly smartphone) needs to work, stuff like background data management that as a user you don't need to know about...although you'll surely appreciate the speed boost this will give when it frees up the main processors to do more important tasks. But enough about the tech. What'll it let your 2012/2013 tablets do? Pretty much everything, and possibly more, that your laptop does right now. Key features include the ability to support up to four cameras at the same time--a ridiculous trick, you may think, until you realize this translates into the ability to portray real-time 3-D video feeds at up to full-HD resolution, real-time conversion of 2-D video into 3-D output, as well as recording real-time 3-D video. This could take tablet-based or mobile video conferencing into the third dimension in a truly mind-popping way (to say nothing about the possibilities for Chatroulette in 3-D)... TI also notes the chip enables "24-megapixel imaging" which would (shoved into a big smartphone or pocket tablet, along with the right lens technology) deal a serious death-blow to the compact digital camera market. There's also mention of "PC-like Internet browsing," which we take to be a reference to the speed and complexity of mobile browser experiences, because tablet web browsing is already pretty impressive. And as well as the obvious tricks like super-powerful 3-D gaming (with up to five times as much complexity as existing peer CPUs can manage), TI mentions that the chip is swift enough to power "3-D graphics enabled user interfaces" without sapping too much power. In other words, your UI for your tablet PC could actually be a 3-D experience too, tapping into the gesture-driven "natural user interface" ideas that Microsoft was pushing recently. Can we say "Minority Report UI on your tablet"? Yes, I think we could. If you think about all the real-time voice translation, text translation (as an evolution of the existing WordLens app) and other tricks this kind of mobile CPU power could enable, matching the kind of "augmented humanity" thinking that Google's Eric Schmidt was talking about just the other day, then TI is giving us a clear signal that the next year's crop of Android, Windows, and Apple tablets will literally blow your mind.
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Stephen Elop
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There is a pertinent story about a man who was working on an oil platform in the North Sea. He woke up one night from a loud explosion, which suddenly set his entire oil platform on fire. In mere moments, he was surrounded by flames. Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the platform’s edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters. As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a “burning platform”, and he needed to make a choice. He decided to jump. It was unexpected. In ordinary circumstances, the man would never consider plunging into icy waters. But these were not ordinary times – his platform was on fire. The man survived the fall and the waters. After he was rescued, he noted that a “burning platform” caused a radical change in his behaviour. We too, are standing on a “burning platform”, and we must decide how we are going to change our behaviour. Over the past few months, I’ve shared with you what I’ve heard from our shareholders, operators, developers, suppliers and from you. Today, I’m going to share what I’ve learned and what I have come to believe. I have learned that we are standing on a burning platform. And, we have more than one explosion – we have multiple points of scorching heat that are fuelling a blazing fire around us. For example, there is intense heat coming from our competitors, more rapidly than we ever expected. Apple disrupted the market by redefining the smartphone and attracting developers to a closed, but very powerful ecosystem. In 2008, Apple’s market share in the $300+ price range was 25 per cent; by 2010 it escalated to 61 per cent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory with a 78 per cent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range. And then, there is Android. In about two years, Android created a platform that attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers. Android came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and quickly they are going downstream to phones under ?100. Google has become a gravitational force, drawing much of the industry’s innovation to its core. Let’s not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one-third of the phones sold globally – taking share from us in emerging markets. While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind. The first iPhone shipped in 2007, and we still don’t have a product that is close to their experience. Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes. Unbelievable. We have some brilliant sources of innovation inside Nokia, but we are not bringing it to market fast enough. We thought MeeGo would be a platform for winning high-end smartphones. However, at this rate, by the end of 2011, we might have only one MeeGo product in the market. At the midrange, we have Symbian. It has proven to be non-competitive in leading markets like North America. Additionally, Symbian is proving to be an increasingly difficult environment in which to develop to meet the continuously expanding consumer requirements, leading to slowness in product development and also creating a disadvantage when we seek to take advantage of new hardware platforms. As a result, if we continue like before, we will get further and further behind, while our competitors advance further and further ahead. At the lower-end price range, Chinese OEMs are cranking out a device much faster than, as one Nokia employee said only partially in jest, “the time that it takes us to polish a PowerPoint presentation.” They are fast, they are cheap, and they are challenging us. And the truly perplexing aspect is that we’re not even fighting with the right weapons. We are still too often trying to approach each price range on a device-to-device basis. The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we’re going to have to decide how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem. This is one of the decisions we need to make. In the meantime, we’ve lost market share, we’ve lost mind share and we’ve lost time. On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s informed that they will put our A long-term and A-1 short-term ratings on negative credit watch. This is a similar rating action to the one that Moody’s took last week. Basically it means that during the next few weeks they will make an analysis of Nokia, and decide on a possible credit rating downgrade. Why are these credit agencies contemplating these changes? Because they are concerned about our competitiveness. Consumer preference for Nokia declined worldwide. In the UK, our brand preference has slipped to 20 per cent, which is 8 per cent lower than last year. That means only one out of five people in the UK prefer Nokia to other brands. It’s also down in the other markets, which are traditionally our strongholds: Russia, Germany, Indonesia, UAE, and on and on and on. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved? This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven’t been delivering innovation fast enough. We’re not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning. We are working on a path forward – a path to rebuild our market leadership. When we share the new strategy on February 11, it will be a huge effort to transform our company. But I believe that together, we can face the challenges ahead of us. Together, we can choose to define our future. The burning platform, upon which the man found himself, caused the man to shift his behaviour, and take a bold and brave step into an uncertain future. He was able to tell his story. Now, we have a great opportunity to do the same. Stephen
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Global Tablet Shipments to Rise by Factor of 12 by 2015
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Global shipments of tablets—a segment consisting of media tablets like Apple Inc.’s iPad as well as PC-type tablets—are set to rise to 242.3 million units in 2015, up by a factor of more than 12 from 2010, new IHS iSuppli research indicates. Media tablet shipments will grow to more than 202 million units in 2015, up from 17.4 million in 2010. Shipments of PC-type tablets—i.e., tablets that have full PC functionality implemented via PC operating systems—will climb to 39.3 million units in 2015, up from 2.3 million in 2010. Total shipments of tablets will amount to 242.3 million units in 2015, up from the newly finalized IHS iSuppli estimate of 19.7 million in 2010. . “The remarkable expansion of the tablet market from 2010 to 2015 will be driven by three successive waves of growth,” said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research at IHS. “The first wave, which is hitting in 2010 and 2011, was created by the arrival of the iPad and the ensuing tsunami of demand for the device. The second wave, arriving in 2011 and 2012, will be propelled by a deluge of iPad competitors, particularly Android-based models. The third wave, which will turn up in 2013, will consist of a flood of models based on the Windows operating system that will expand the reach of tablets into traditional computer markets.” While the iPad will lead annual tablet shipments through 2012, the increasing strength of media-tablet rivals combined with the advent of PC-type platforms will cause Apple to lose its majority of total unit shipments starting in 2013. Wave Hello to iPad Prior to the introduction of the iPad in 2010, the tablet market represented a sleepy niche of the mobile PC market, with small volumes, negligible growth, and sales limited to small group of users in professional markets. Shipments of these PC-type tablets amounted to less than 2 million units in 2009. The arrival of the iPad changed all that, helping tablet sales surge by a factor of 10 in 2010. The iPad’s huge head start both in unit share and ecosystem development will allow it to maintain its market dominance in 2011 and throughout most of 2012 despite the influx of competitors. Android Ahoy New model introductions in 2011 and 2012 will continue to boost iPad volumes and allow Apple to maintain a premium for its newest models. However, Apple will face increasing price competition from competing media tablets, many of them incorporating the Android operating system. Some of those tablets will enter the market with features more comparable—or in some cases, superior—to the current version of the iPad. Furthermore, Google is spearheading an effort to speed development of tablet-oriented content for Android-based devices. “At least three of the major Android tablets released at the Consumer Electronics Show in January featured built-in support for a 4G wireless communications technology: long-term evolution (LTE),” said Francis Sideco, principal analyst, wireless communications at IHS. “With iPad only supporting 3G for now, it will be interesting to see the outcome of the battle pitting the allure of technology—i.e. LTE—against the appeal of usability—i.e. the iPad’s benchmark user friendliness.” Aside from the LTE differentiator, Google also is spearheading an effort to speed development of tablet-oriented content and the user interface for Android based devices. The Rising Tide of PC Tablets By 2013, the iPad will decline to less than 50 percent of overall tablet shipments, as it faces the double jeopardy of increasing competition from Android-based tablets combined with the rise of devices using PC operating systems, possibly including some from Apple. “The year 2013 will mark a critical juncture, as the tablet market turns into a battleground between media tablets using mobile operating systems, and PC-type tablets employing the Windows operating system,” Alexander said. “Add to this mix the competition from ever-improving smart phones, and the mobile device market will get very interesting.” Microsoft likely will introduce a tablet-oriented version of its Windows operating system in late 2012 or in 2013 that not only will be better suited to touch-screen applications, but also will allow for content-creation tasks. The expected expansion of the current consumption-oriented media tablets to incorporate more creation applications is placing growing pressure on traditional low-end mobile PCs, and the existing Windows solutions are struggling to gain traction in the tablet market. “Microsoft and the PC makers will engage in a vicious battle to fight off the ongoing share grab from media tablets, even as many of these vendors offer media tablet solutions of their own,” Alexander said. “Expect to see a blend of slates, convertibles and dual- and potentially tri-screen solutions as alternatives to the media tablet onslaught.” The wide variety of solutions—and intense battle among operating systems and types of platforms—will continue to fuel the expansion of the tablet market in 2014 and 2015.
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2011年MWC不可錯過的七大觀察重點
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行動通訊產業界的年度盛事── 2011年Mobile World Congress (MWC)即將於下週(2月14~17日)在西班牙巴塞隆納登場;主辦單位預估,屆時將有來自世界200個國家、超過5萬名參觀者蒞臨現場。
該展會向來反映變化快速的全球行動通訊市場趨勢,並將有一系列最新通訊裝置與技術亮相;無論你是否有機會前去湊湊熱鬧,以下是EETimes美國版資深編輯Junko Yoshida與Dylan McGrath所列出的、MWC 2011不可錯過的幾個觀察重點:
150美元的平價智慧型手機
2011年最紅的智慧型手機可能不再是 iPhone ,而是售價在150美元左右的平價機種;對此通訊應用DSP核心供應商Ceva執行長Gideon Wertheizer表示,該價位是智慧型手機的新「甜蜜點(sweet spot)」,有不少客戶正在尋找整合基頻與應用處理器的單晶片解決方案,以取代成本較高的雙元件方案。
市場研究機構Linley Group首席分析師Linley Gwennap也預期,今年智慧型手機的最大成長動力,將來自新興市場對平價機種的需求;手機廠商若要製作出材料成本在50~100美元的產品,就會需要整合應用處理器與基頻的單晶片方案。而預期在今年的MWC,各家晶片廠商如Broadcom、Marvell、Qualcomm、ST-Ericsson等,都會推出低成本的整合式智慧型手機晶片解決方案。
但Forward Concepts分析師Will Strauss 卻對150美元的平價智慧型手機存疑,他認為這類手機方案可在展會上看到,但能在多快的時間內上市還不一定。他也認為,若平價智慧型手機問世,將使得智慧型手機與功能型手機之間的界線變得模糊,但那些會配備觸控螢幕的平價智慧型手機在功能性上會與高階機種有差距:「它們不會像iPhone那麼聰明。」
另一家市場研究機構Juniper Research曾預測,隨著廠商競爭日益激烈與低成本晶片方案的問世,到了2015年,入門款智慧型手機的價格甚至可能低至150到80美元,而這類手機的年出貨量屆時將達到1.85億支。
終於出頭天的NFC手機
市場期待已久的NFC手機終於可望上市。Linley Group的Gwennap認為,NFC方案已經在許多應用領域起飛,特別是採購點(point-of-purchase)的熱絡交易;他指出,目前市面上其實已經有少數幾款支援NFC的手機,但有數家相關晶片供應商的客戶要到明年才會推出產品。
無論如何,套用IMS Research的結論,NFC終於要「出頭天」了;該機構指出,受到包括Samsung、Nokia、Google與Apple等大廠的支持,延遲許久的NFC手機商業化量產終於啟動,2011年出貨量預估可超越4,000萬支。
眾所矚目的LTE
通訊晶片業者Anadigics 執行長Mario Rivas預期,今年的MWC展場上將會有「真正的」LTE裝置亮相;LTE在去年的MWC上就是熱門話題,但當時仍處於「相信我,這一定能成」的紙上談兵階段。
Ceva執行長Wertheizer預測,不同於去年的陽春型LTE基地台解決方案(很多都是在3G基地台上隨便加個LTE卡),今年展場上的LTE基地台會像樣得多。這主要是因為許多晶片廠商都推出了可支援單一系統同時處理LTE與3G的第二代晶片,包括TI、Freescale與Mindspeed。
在終端LTE設備方面,則預期將有許多USB隨身碟形式的LTE網卡,供應商包括Samsung與LG;但這些裝置所採用的晶片是為原廠客製化設計的方案,而非現成產品。至於整合LTE的手機,Wertheizer則認為,由於功耗問題,這類機種的廣泛問世恐要等到2015年之後。
潛力十足的femtocell
市場對毫微微蜂巢式基地台(femtocell)的諸多疑惑,終於因為LTE而被釐清;對此femtocell 方案供應商Picochip企業行銷總監表示,通訊服務業者若要讓LTE充分發揮潛力,提供以高速度傳遞更多的資料,就會需要小型的細胞基地台(cell),因為LTE本質上就是以諸多小型細胞基地台所組成。
Ceva的 Wertheizer也看好femotocell市場隨著更多LTE網路佈建而興盛,特別是在Broadcom收購Percello之後,家用femotocell閘道器所扮演的角色也更加清晰;他指出,Broadcom是將Percello的工程團隊併入DSL部門,而非無線晶片部門,這代表該公司打算把femtocell整合到例如DSL閘道器之中。
猶原到處都是的平板裝置
在上個月美國拉斯維加斯的國際消費性電子展(CES)上,多媒體平板裝置(tablet)已經是隨處可見,有超過上百款產品亮相;而分析師們預期,在MWC展場上會出現更多平板裝置產品。不過Forward Concepts的Strauss強調,有鑑於MWC的參觀者是以通訊產業界的商務人士為主,不同於CES的參觀者是以電子產品愛好者居多,因此MWC所展出的平板裝置可能會是偏向未來概念的產品。
在MWC上看平板裝置,重點會變成是那些產品採用誰家的數據機晶片,或是內建哪一種處理器。Linley Group的 Gwennap預期,將會看到平板裝置應用的四核心ARM處理器,包括Nvidia的Tegra 3,以及Freescale已在CES發表的四核心i.MX系列處理器;這些晶片將出現在明年上市的平板裝置中。
不容小覷的中國影響力
在MWC上也會看到,中國在全球行動通訊產業的影響力越見深遠。Ceva的Wertheizer表示,中國移動(China Mobile)是一家不可忽視的廠商,隨著中國自訂TD-SCDMA標準走向其他新興市場包括印度與印尼,該公司的業務版圖也日益擴大。
去年秋天,中國移動的TD-SCDMA手機標案讓眾家國際大廠如Nokia、Sony Ericsson、Motorola與Samsung鎩羽而歸,由於其採購價低於150美元,因此得標廠商幾乎都是中國本土的手機供應商,採用由展訊(Spreadtrum)、聯芯(Leadcore)與ST-Ericsson的TD-SCDMA晶片組。
除了嚴苛的TD-SCDMA標準,中國移動還有其他幾個讓供應商難以親近之處,一是該公司採用的作業系統自成一格(是Linux但又不是Android),二是該公司的所有手機產品都整合電視功能(採用中國自有CMMB標準)。
這絕對不是美國的行動通訊業者會自找的麻煩;但中國移動也是手機標準的主導者,如果供應商想要跨足TD-SCDMA市場,不得不聽它發號施令。
對西方世界的偏袒?
MWC向來會偏心地將展會焦點集中在西方世界嗎?一家來自丹麥的顧問公司Strand Consult在新發布的年度展前報告中抱怨,今年的MWC顯然太集中在各約3億的美國以及歐洲行動通訊客戶,而較忽略世界其他國家總計有43億人口、一樣每天手機不離身的行通通訊用戶。
Strand指出,雖然所謂的第三世界明顯有比較多的行動通訊用戶,但2011年MWC所邀請的演講者大多數來自西歐與美國;根據統計,目前美國在全球行動通訊市場的佔有率僅有7%,但媒體相關報導大約有八成五都是提美國。而美國市場與歐洲部分市場以及非洲、亞洲比較,競爭情況實在是微不足道。
但對MWC聚焦西方世界的假設也是可以解釋的,至少在某些方面;智慧型手機的強勁成長,以及高利潤裝置(如平板裝置)/服務的潛在成長商機,其動力還是來自已開發國家。新興市場的行動通訊使用者也許更多,不過那些地區仍有大多數人口甚至連一般的功能性手機都遙不可及。
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再來幾個對2011年半導體產業前景的預測
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2011年已經過了快一個月,各家市場分析機構對產業前景的預測報告仍陸續出爐,以下是 Arete Research 所列出的 2011年預測: 1. IC市場大亂鬥 消費性電子、手機與PC三大領域出現重疊性衝突,半導體產業界也將掀起策略性戰役,甚至可能出現前所未有的結構性改變;可能的情況有: ˙Qualcomm、Broadco、Marvell與ST-Ericsson將群起搶攻原本是聯發科(Mediatek)的灰色手機市場,拉攏生產低價智慧型手機的客戶。 ˙晶片製造商的Android產品交貨期,在18個月內由4天延長到20天。 ˙隨著28奈米製程量產,GHz等級處理器價格將在2011年跌到10美元以下。 ˙CSR與Synaptics可能在今年成為被併購的對象──CSR的藍牙與GPS專長,會使其成為Intel與Marvell等廠商有興趣的目標,而後兩家公司都試圖擴展無線產品版圖,而且CSR與Broadcon之間的法律問題已經解決。Synaptics則是因為其專長的觸控面板模組技術當紅,身價也不高,因此可能成為具吸引力的收購標的。 ˙Intel與ARM兩大陣營的晶片供應商或晶圓代工廠,可能會產生不少侵權糾紛。 2. DRAM市場很難過 記憶體市場今年的主流趨勢,會是原本居次的 NAND快閃記憶體領域表現將超越DRAM,並取代成為該市場的主角。Arete Research估計,DRAM市場2011年將衰退26%,但NAND市場反而將取得28%的成長,營收規模由220億美元擴張至290億美元。 該機構並預測,DRAM價格在 2010年第四季下跌30%之後,將於 2011年前兩季再分別出現29%與12%的跌幅。從需求端來看,主要的問題在於記憶體買家的應用支出已經由傳統PC轉向智慧型手機與平板裝置;PC市場的成長表現仍將是今年影響DRAM市場的最關鍵因素。 而此趨勢顯然也對記憶體廠商的資本支出計畫產生重大影響,2011年DRAM廠商資本支出規模減少了40%,但 NAND快閃記憶體業者資本支出則成長了85%,這是歷史上首度出現DRAM資本支出被NAND超越的情形。 不過儘管NAND快閃記憶體業者大舉投資,但今年應該不會出現供過於求現象,因為三大供應商的新廠(Toshiba、IMFS與Samsung)要到2012年上半年才會全線量產,因此到2012年中,該市場不至於出現供應過剩。 3. 半導體設備產業前景好轉 半導體資本設備業前景已出現改善跡象,雖然DRAM產業水深火熱,但晶圓代工廠商資本支出規模創紀錄,以及邏輯晶片業者加速投資,可望帶動晶圓廠前段設備(WFE)市場在2011年成長8%,達到320億美元規模。 因此短期內可望看到半導體設備訂單狀況出現好轉;先前Arete Research預測,半導體設備供應商訂單可能會在2011年前兩季分別下滑5~10%,但現在由於一連串邏輯晶片業者資本支出計畫的宣佈,前兩季的半導體設備業訂單狀況可望縮小跌幅至5%或出現5%的成長。 4. 終端市場表現平淡 雖然Intel對PC與伺服器市場抱持樂觀態度,但Arete Research仍維持對該市場今年度出貨成長率10%的預測,並認為PC應用半導體市場2011年營收可能僅有5%的成長表現。來自新興市場的資料中心、企業用PC需求,將抵銷已開發市場的政府與消費性PC需求。而資料中心會是 2011年成長最快速的市場。 智慧型手機(與平板裝置)風潮,將使無線晶片市場表現在 2011年超越其他邏輯半導體市場,但是激烈的價格競爭會限制該市場的成長率僅達到10%左右水準;根據Arete Research預測,平板裝置市場今年出貨量約有5,600萬台(平均售價估計400美元),總銷售金額規模約220億美元。 在電視市場部分,Samsung與LG在2011年都沒有達到預期銷售目標,主要是因為LED背光電視的價格高出一般CCFL背光液晶電視30~50%,無法吸引消費者。Arete Research預測,電視市場的買氣會在2011上半年緩慢好轉,同時LED晶片庫存會回歸正常水位,以及LED背光電視新機種也陸續上市。該機構估計LED背光液晶電視出貨量,今年將出現三倍成長,達到1.02億台規模。 5. LED市場熱絡 隨著LED背光陸續進駐低階液晶電視機型,可望推動今年 LED 市場進一步成長;LED晶片平均銷售價格因為來自筆記型電腦/電視背光模組需求的減緩,在2010年第四季下滑了10~15%,Arete Research估計,LED晶片將在2011年上半年再下滑30%,而且還可能再經歷另一波下滑才會趨於穩定。但是LED出貨量今年應可由原先預測的9,500萬顆,提升至1.02億顆。 6. MOCVD設備供應過剩 Arete Research估計,2010年LED生產用的MOCVD設備出貨量為245台,市場呈現供過於求局面;該類設備訂單主要來自中國。而雖然MOCVD設備2011年出貨量估計有730台,但是到2012年可能減至638台。 據傳中國官方將取消對LED廠商購置MOCVD機台的補貼,但目前尚未證實;Arete Research認為,中國本土的LED產業投資熱潮在2011上半年不會消退,但是由於當地缺乏專業人才,自製LED晶片品質也不佳,因此短時間內可能會面臨現實考驗。
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CES觀察報告:平板裝置為電子產業帶來的三大變化
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多媒體平板裝置(media tablets)無疑是 2011年國際消費性電子展(CES)期間最熱門的話題;但實際上,今年CES的焦點並不只是平板裝置本身,而是一系列平板裝置所帶來的變化──由蘋果(Apple) iPad 領頭──正為整個電子產業開啟一個龐大的新商機。 變化一:眾人焦點突然從Google TV跳到iPad 產業界對 Google TV 商機的躍躍欲試,一下子被那些想把電視內容帶到家庭中每個螢幕的、越來越強烈的企圖所取代,平板裝置正是帶來這種巨大轉變的關鍵。 Cisco Systems資深產品經理Kip Compton表示,製造商為電視加入連網功能的努力(例如Google TV),與服務業者目前試圖將視訊內容推到家中每個螢幕(包括平板裝置、手機、PC與電視機)的行動(例如Comcast的線上視訊服務Xfinity)是相對立的。 讓電視能連上網際網路,是消費性電子廠商推動了多年的構想;但由於Google TV軟體改版的延遲,連網電視產業看來並不那麼容易實現。更糟的是,雖然有專為電視機量身打造的新使用者介面與Google的搜尋功能,對於那些已經習慣傳統電視機操作介面的消費者來說,吸引力並不是很大。 而現在,蘋果搶先Google一步解決了以上困境。隨著iPad等平板裝置的崛起,消費者可以輕鬆地透過這樣的裝置觀賞搜尋自YouTube的視訊短片,同時還坐在客廳沙發上看自家的大螢幕電視。更重要的是,Comcast等業者已經開始推廣線上視訊服務,不需要同時安裝他們的有線電視服務或是機上盒。 很多供應商都已經看到為電視機、PC、平板裝置、行動裝置提供視訊服務的商機,只需要透過一個通用的IP網路平台;包括Cisco的Videoscape。Comcast也在去年11月首度推出iPad專用的Xfinity應用程式,能為使用者提供電視節目表,以及當做可相容數位錄影機(DVR)的遙控器使用。 總而言之,平板裝置讓網路視訊服務業者能搶盡Google TV的鋒頭;隨著線上視訊服務需求成長,消費者看來會花更多時間透過平板裝置觀賞視訊(以及上網瀏覽),而把電視機冷落在一旁。 變化二:無線視訊再度成為熱門話題 平板裝置也讓產業界重新燃起對無線視訊的興趣;那些推動WiGig (60GHz)、Wireless HD (60GHz)技術的晶片廠商,以及Quantenna Communications (4x4 MIMO 802.11n)、Amimon (5GHz的WHDI),都開始加緊與平板裝置、smartbook與PC等產品開發商洽談合作關係。 這無非是因為從現在開始,視訊正被傳遞到消費者家中各種尺寸的螢幕,也讓無線播放/分享這些內容的技術需求日益成長。過去眾家無線視訊技術開發商極力為自家技術推銷各種使用者情境,例如在電視機與數位錄影機之間的無線連結,以及能將PC上的網路視訊傳送到客廳大螢幕電視播放的、多房間的無線連結技術。 Quantena與Amimon 亦是積極搶攻此領域商機的兩家廠商;前者是期望以電信業者等級(carrier-grade)的4x4 MIMO 802.11n晶片組,滿足傳遞多重HD視訊流至家中電視機、各種顯示器的需求。Amimon則是為各種裝置提供WHDI解決方案。 變化三:平板裝置為企業用電腦市場帶來永久性改變 市調公司Accenture最近針對企業資訊長(CIO)展開了一項調查,詢問是否會以平板裝置來替代公司用的筆記型電腦或是桌上型電腦;雖然這項調查結果尚未出爐,但不可避免的,對各企業用戶來說,像是 Android平板裝置安全性是否足夠等問題也會接踵而來。無論如何,Accenture主管Mitchell Cline表示:「我們認為企業用戶會逐漸接受這些新裝置。」 根據Accenture表示,2010年是個人科技支出(平均1,100美元)首度超越企業平均每員工科技投資金額;消費性市場的技術更新速度比企業市場高出許多,因此後者勢必會受到影響。而目前行動裝置作業系統市場上已經看到百家爭鳴的情況, 2011年也將會是PC市場「Wintel」模式開始崩潰的一年。 隨著平板裝置的興起,PC廠商需要開始思考,該如何將已經發生在家庭的運算典範轉型,移植到辦公室環境;而且這並不是接下來幾年需要考量的投資項目,而是馬上就會發生的。
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APAC to lead tablet revenues by 2014
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The Asia-Pacific region will dominate global tablet revenues by 2014, predicted an analyst firm, which called the growth of the device category "unprecedented". In a Wednesday forecast report on the worldwide tablet industry, Yankee Group noted that global tablet revenues are expected to increase from US$16 billion in 2010 to US$46 billion in 2014. Yankee Group analyst Dmitriy Molchanov described the growth of tablets as "unprecedented", adding that tablet sales are rising faster than that of HDTVs, handheld gaming consoles or MP3 players. The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China, will account for 58 percent of the global market revenues three years from now, said the firm. According to the report, the region's rise will overshadow current market leader, North America, which will see its share drop from 37 percent in 2010 to 17 percent by 2014. The same report noted that in the United States, tablet sales will reach 30 million units by 2015 compared to last year's 8 million units, representing a compound annual growth rate of 31 percent during the five-year period. The average selling price of tablets in the United States, added Yankee Group, will also halve to US$237 by 2015 due to reference models, open source operating systems and economies of scale in touch-screen manufacturing. In a previous report, analyst firm ABI Research noted that white box tablets--devices whose brands have yet to become as famous the Apple iPad or the Samsung Galaxy Tab--is thriving in Asia. The company also singled out China as one of the market leaders in this low-cost tablet segment.
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Android內建NFC 手機付款應用見月明
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智慧型手機的蓬勃發展,讓各式各樣的應用得以在手機上實現。而眾所期盼的行動付款應用,在Google將NFC功能內建於Android 2.3版作業平台後,也快速引爆市場商機,並吸引生態系統內的相關業者傾力展開布局,讓智慧型手機變身電子錢包的夢想越來越近。 在長達4年多的推廣後,手機行動付款應用終於將開枝散葉。尤其在Google於最新一代Android平台中原生支援近距離無線通訊(NFC)功能,與北美三大行動電話營運商將合資建立行動付款服務系統,以及諾基亞(Nokia)等手機製造商全力支持下,手機內建NFC行動付款功能那已成為2011年智慧型手機發展的熱門趨勢。 NFC是基於磁場感應的短距離無線連結技術,為無線射頻辨識系統(RFID)技術的延伸,最初係由飛利浦(Philips)(即現今恩智浦(NXP)半導體)與索尼(Sony)所聯合開發,目的是為了讓兩個電子裝置在近距離內可以用直覺、簡單且安全方式相互通訊並傳遞資料。 NFC技術的應用範圍相當廣泛,除適用於行動交易付款外,也可作為資料擷取的快速管道,例如將手機靠近廣告看板上的NFC標籤,即可獲得產品詳細規格或優惠資訊;抑或是將兩個內建NFC晶片的裝置相靠近,以實現點對點資料傳輸,可用於音樂下載、電子名片交換等應用。此外,NFC還可扮演促成者(Enabler)的角色,意即讓兩個電子裝置可透過NFC快速建立連結,省略以往透過藍牙(Bluetooth)或無線區域網路(Wi-Fi)建立連結時所需的複雜設定步驟。 為進一步推廣NFC技術,索尼與恩智浦更於2004年聯合諾基亞,共同組成非營利的NFC論壇(NFC Forum),推動相關標準化的工作,至今全球已有超過一百三十家業者加入,並已完成十五項重要規格制定,同時也已獲得國際標準組織(ISO)、國際電工委員會(IEC)、歐洲電信標準協會(ETSI)和歐洲標準資訊與通訊系統協會(ECMA)所認可。 然而,NFC技術的應用前景雖備受看好,但目前大多數應用僅局限在票券、交通運輸等垂直領域,如手機付款等消費性應用,則囿於相關服務的基礎建設未臻完備,除日本地區較為成熟外,其餘市場遲遲未能大量普及。直到近期智慧型手機蓬勃發展與雲端運算環境成形,加上Google、諾基亞和電信營運商積極促成,才讓NFC行動付款的應用再露曙光。 挾Google奧援 NFC導入三星Nexus S Google甫於2010年12月初發布的Android 2.3版作業平台,原生支援NFC功能即是重要的轉捩點。 恩智浦於日前宣布與Google共同開發用於NFC的完全開放式軟體堆疊(Software Stack)已獲得認證,並整合至代號薑餅(Gingerbread)的最新版Android 2.3中。此外,恩智浦的NFC控制器將整合至Google與三星(Samsung)合作的最新款智慧型手機Nexus S。 恩智浦大中華區智慧識別事業部業務發展總監Ciaran Fisher表示,Android 2.3平台的軟、硬體已通過認證,未來將可協助製造商加快NFC產品上市時程。 恩智浦大中華區智慧識別事業部業務發展總監Ciaran Fisher(圖1)表示,在獲得Google青睞後,恩智浦NFC已成功跨足智慧型手機版圖。他強調,智慧型手機內建NFC需求正在快速引爆,2011年,諾基亞已計畫在智慧型手機搭載NFC;黑莓機(BlackBerry)亦會內建NFC;至於Google與三星則已合作將NFC導入Nexus S。而除恩智浦和Google連袂開發用於NFC的完全開放式軟體堆疊外,未來雙方策略聯盟的進展將會有更多消息陸續發布。 初期,Android 2.3智慧型手機透過自然碰觸,內建的NFC晶片可輕易的與各種附件進行配對,達成點對點資料交換,亦可與已大量安裝的讀取器及標籤等基礎設施進行連結。Fisher說明,透過提供Android開發人員開放式的NFC系統,製造商可再開發出更豐富、進階的NFC應用程式,讓終端消費者更深入體驗NFC功能的特色。 繼2002年制定出首個NFC標準,至今恩智浦已推出第六代NFC規格,Fisher指出,第六代NFC傳輸速率已大幅提升,因應不同使用模式可支援傳輸速率達104k~848kbit/s,已可符合點對點資料交換市場對於傳輸資訊的速率要求。 手機內建NFC起飛 2012年出貨破億支 在Google、諾基亞力拱與各大電信業者群起響應下,手機行動付款應用已成為2011年智慧型手機功能的新亮點,並推升NFC晶片需求。 iSuppli預估,未來4年,全球內建NFC功能的手機出貨量將迅速增長,並於2012年突破一億支大關,而2014年更將超過兩億支規模,占全球手機出貨量一成以上的比重。 2008~2014年全球內建NFC手機出貨量分析 iSuppli總監暨通訊與消費性電子首席分析師Jagdish Rebello表示,隨著Google在Android作業系統中整合NFC功能,以及諾基亞決定在明年度發表的所有智慧型手機中內建NFC後,由NFC技術所實現的行動付款應用革命可望於2011年正式鳴槍起跑。預估2010年全球內建NFC晶片的手機出貨量約達五千二百六十萬支,占整體手機出貨量僅4.1%的比例;然而至2014年,則可望爆增至二億二千零十萬支,占比也將攀升至13%。 除Google與諾基亞的推波助瀾外,經過長達兩年多的討論,美國三大行動電話營運商--AT&T Wireless、威瑞森(Verizon)和T-Mobile,日前也已宣布組成ISIS合資公司,共同發展基於NFC技術的行動付款系統。儘管初期是和美國巴克萊卡(Barclaycard)和發現金融服務公司(Discover Financial Services)合作,但仍將開放給任何願意使用該平台的發卡銀行一起合作。ISIS希望在未來18個月內,能看到由三家電信業者所銷售的NFC手機上市,並在2013年完成全國性的NFC生態系統建置。 Rebello指出,隨著全球各地的NFC試行計畫陸續展開,以及手機電信商、財務機構和銀行等主要利益關係者開始支持NFC技術,如何建立一個可讓每個生態系統環節看到服務價值的商業模式已是當務之急,而2012年將是決定NFC發展成敗的關鍵轉捩點。 NFC需求看漲 晶片商群起搶攻 顯而易見,在眾多利多消息的激勵下,NFC晶片需求也前景看俏,因而吸引許多晶片商競相逐鹿,除已發展多年的恩智浦外,包括博通(Broadcom)、意法半導體(ST)、德州儀器(TI)、英飛凌(Infineon)、瑞薩電子(Renesas Electronics)與三星電子(Samsung Electronics)也於近期陸續發布相關方案,讓NFC晶片市場頓時陷入百家爭鳴局面(表1)。 其中,又以博通的加入戰局格外引人側目。經常透過購併方式快速搶進新市場商機的博通,2010年6月再度以4,750萬美元的金額買下英國一家專精NFC產品技術開發的矽智財(IP)供應商Innovision,正式切入NFC方案市場。 不同於採用獨立型NFC控制晶片的設計方式,Innovision所開發出的Gem NFC矽智財,可讓手機晶片製造商在現今整合Wi-Fi、調頻無線電(FM Radio)和全球衛星定位系統(GPS)等多功能(Combo)晶片中,再納入NFC功能,大幅降低手機內建NFC技術的成本。 一般而言,手機製造商若採用外掛獨立型晶片的方式來實現NFC功能,成本將增加5美元以上,而利用將NFC矽智財與既有多功能連結晶片整合的作法,則可使每顆晶片成本低於1美元,對NFC手機的普及將有莫大助益。 值得一提的是,由於博通Wi-Fi加藍牙的多功能晶片已獲得蘋果(Apple)iPhone 3GS、iPad和iPod Touch採用,因此市場人士多半認為,博通收購Innovision可謂如虎添翼,一旦未來成功整合NFC功能,勢將對恩智浦的市場地位帶來極大威脅。 另一方面,三星電子也挾其在記憶體技術的優異能力,於2010年12月推出內建嵌入式快閃(Flash)記憶體的NFC晶片,讓裝置設計人員可輕易更新和升級軟體或韌體。不僅如此,拜該公司在低功耗設計的豐富經驗所賜,該款方案不論在運作或待機時均擁有極小的耗電量,即使在電池沒電的情形下,仍舊可以執行運作,預計2011年第一季即可量產出貨。 除NFC晶片外,考量無縫整合與客戶設計效率,三星電子還提供一套軟體協定堆疊和天線設計調整的技術服務,進一步協助開發人員縮短產品上市時程。瑞薩電子則採用獨家的晶圓製程封裝(WPP)的晶圓封裝技術,在其新推出的RF21S微控制器(MCU)方案中,一口氣整合了瑞薩電子的RS-4安全性MCU、NFC控制器及安全性功能,因此能達到封裝厚度僅0.22毫米的超薄外觀規格,並在單一晶片上實現金融交易卡、捷運卡及身分辨識等功能。該公司表示,單晶片的設計組態可省去與外部安全性元件通訊的需求,有助縮短進出捷運系統閘門所需的交易時間。 此外,意法半導體、英飛凌與高通(Qualcomm)近期也在NFC領域頻頻出招,讓市場彌漫著一股山雨欲來的緊張氣息。 迎接行動付款新時代 NFC產品認證上路 與此同時,NFC論壇亦於2010年12月初正式啟動首波產品認證計畫,以確保未來所有NFC應用裝置均能符合NFC論壇的標準規範,同時也將透過每年舉辦的插拔測試大會(PlugFest),進一步提高NFC產品的互通性,為手機行動付款應用的普及再添助力。 NFC論壇主席Koichi Tagawa表示,為提高NFC產品的互通性,自2006年至今,NFC論壇已制定完成並發布十五項重要的標準規格,如今再搭配NFC認證計畫的推出,將使開發者擁有部署全球互通的NFC論壇相容方案的必要資源。未來,除將持續提升各項技術規格外,還將結合相關產業組織的力量,共同建立更完善的生態體系。 目前,NFC認證計畫只開放給NFC論壇會員,首波的認證作業已經展開,主要認證項目包括較低階的數位通訊協定(Digital Protocol)測試,尤其是針對不同形式標籤的運作規範測試;此外,NFC數位協定規格與NFC行為規範(Activity Specification)的測試亦包含在內。而參與該認證計畫的合作夥伴則包括Open Group協會及AT4 wireless、Clear2Pay與Applus+等測試服務商。 凡通過NFC認證計畫的產品上將貼有NFC論壇所認可的「N」形圖案標章,讓消費者在使用時可以清楚識別出,該以產品哪個部位進行接觸以完成NFC應用服務。 至於第二波認證作業則預計於2012年推出,屆時會增加實體層(Physical Layer),以及射頻(RF)、類比(Analog)與點對點(Peer-to-peer)等特定較上層的數位協定測試。 事實上,NFC技術在門禁管理、票券交易與電子護照等垂直市場已被廣泛使用,但在手機行動付款等消費性應用方面,一直以來則囿於產品互通性不佳與缺乏完整生態體系而無法大量普及,只能以封閉系統方式進行有限度的小規模應用。因此,NFC論壇認證計畫的上路,無疑是手機行動付款發展的重要里程碑。
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Intel to break ARM
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ARM’s technology has dominated the mobile processor business. Meanwhile, Intel has a near monopoly on the traditional PC and server markets. Now, ARM and its partners—Marvell, Nvidia and others-want a piece of the traditional, x86-based computer segments. And Intel is looking to make inroads in the mobile, tablet PC and related segments dominated by ARM. The winner? Intel, according to one analyst. But clearly, the chip giant faces some major challenges, as it did not have the ''best of CESs (Consumer Electronic Show), which is remarkable given that the company may very well have launched the most powerful CPU family in decades: Sandy Bridge,'' said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc., in a report. As expected, rival microprocessor firms Intel and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) used the occasion of the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show to officially launch new multicore chips that combine microprocessing and graphics processing capabilities on a single die. ''The issue of course for Intel is that CES 2011 is all about Android, tablets, and smartphones, which the Street tends to not associate with Intel. Oh, and that punch-in-the-gut commentary by Microsoft that its next generation Windows O/S will support ARM processors in addition to x86,’’ he said. Microsoft Corp. said that the next version of its Windows operating system will support ARM-based chips, confirming months of speculation that the software giant would broaden support for Windows beyond x86 platforms. ''First, there is no way around this. The fact that consumers can buy a Windows-based notebook a couple years down the road based on an Intel or AMD x86, or a TI or Nvidia ARM SoC is just not good news on its own despite our view that x86 will easily outperform an ARM core,’’ he said. ''On this note, the bottom line is can Intel penetrate the tablet/smartphone market enough to offset ARM encroachment in its mainstream notebook domain? Our view is yes in the mid-term as the company has a good head start: Android tablets/smartphones based on x86 in 2011 will easily sport double-digit performance advantages over ARM solutions running Android inasmuch as that is the metric of choice,’’ he said. ''Also, look for Intel to have a cost advantage veres ARM SoCs (System on a Chip) given the company's 1-2 node process advantage,’’ he added. ''Longer term, Intel has its challenges and 2011 will go a long way in helping to answer if Intel is up to the task.’
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SMIC lands more IDM orders
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Foundry chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) has grabbed more chip orders targeted mainly at China from international IDM companies, according to industry sources. Orders include those for 90nm and 65nm processes. The sources pointed out that more IDMs are working with SMIC in order to bring new products to market more quickly and cost effectively. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), usually their preference for foundry services, are only allowed to operate 8-inch fabs at 0.13-micron and above processes under current laws. SMIC has obtained 15 65nm design tape-outs, the sources indicated. The China-based foundry is also expected to move its 45/40nm node technologies to volume production in the second half of 2011, in a move to bring itself closer to TSMC and UMC, the sources said. In addition, the sources disclosed SMIC is implementing a 5-year project to boost advanced process capacities at its 12-inch fabs. The company is looking to ramp up capacity for 65/55nm processes in 2011, then shift its expansion focus to 45/40nm in 2011-2012, and ultimately migrate to 32/28nm between 2013 and 2014. By the end of 2015, SMIC's total 12-inch capacity will top two million wafers annually allowing it to generate US$5 billion in revenues, according to the sources.
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