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哈瑪斯組織在著名的「贖罪日戰爭」50周年時，攻入加薩周邊以色列鄉鎮。以軍還擊；造成雙方重大傷亡(請見本欄第二篇文章)。
哈瑪斯組織發言人陳述了一系列發動這次戰爭的「理由」。但我認為他故意不提另一個重要動機：美國出面拉攏沙、以兩國關係正常化。如果以色列的報復性攻擊導致巴勒斯坦人民大規模的傷亡；這個戰爭可能迫使沙烏地阿拉伯不得不暫時叫停沙、以之間的協商。勢必增加中東局勢的變數。
另一個值得繼續觀察的因素是：該報導中提到的，這次攻擊的「規劃與協調」不是游擊式或恐怖攻擊式，而近於「戰爭」形式。我相信在「規劃」階段有專業軍事人員介入；換句話說，伊朗軍方的影子呼之欲出。這當然會延伸到沙、伊兩國關係惡化，中國可能需要再度出面做和事佬。
另一個值得繼續觀察的面向是：美國政壇的反應(請見本欄第三篇文章)。
我曾說過：
「美國今天的實力已經不可能面面俱到。由於『備多力分』的現實和『不可兩面作戰』的鐵律，在認定必須保護地區的優先順位上，美國干涉主義陣營可以分成：歐洲派、亞洲派、和中東派(或以色列派)。」
如果中東局勢高度不穩，或這次以、巴戰爭無限期延長，美國勢必重新調整她的全球軍事佈署。這個發展不但會影響俄、烏戰爭，也會左右台海情勢。
後記：
我寫這篇評論時，只看到第三篇報導的標題，來不及讀它的內容。剛剛讀完，發現我就「破壞沙、以和談」和「伊朗軍方介入」的看法，和美國前國安官員毛洛艾先生相合。不得不自我感覺良好一番；1:57 p.m.。
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哈瑪斯領袖辛沃陣亡 –------- R. Bergman/A. Boxerman
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Hamas Leader Killed in Gaza Fighting, Israeli Military Says
The Israeli military confirmed that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was killed on Wednesday. His body was identified by the Israeli authorities, the military said.
Ronen Bergman/Aaron Boxerman, 10/17/24
The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that Yahya Sinwar, the powerful and elusive militant leader who has been the No. 1 target for Israel since the beginning of the war, had been killed in battle.
Mr. Sinwar was viewed as the architect of the brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel that set off the 13-month war that has plunged the Gaza Strip into a humanitarian crisis and began a wider conflict that now includes the fighting in Lebanon.
After a firefight in Gaza on Wednesday with Hamas forces, Israeli soldiers retrieved a body that appeared to be that of Mr. Sinwar. A sample of his DNA was tested to confirm his identity, according to an Israeli official with knowledge of the matter. The police in Israel said they had also used Mr. Sinwar’s dental records and fingerprints, both of which were on file, for identification purposes. There was no immediate response from Hamas.
Since launching the assault on Hamas in Gaza last October in retaliation for Hamas’s cross-border raids, in which about 1,200 people were killed and more than 200 abducted, Israeli officials have repeatedly said that their goal was nothing less than the destruction of the militant group.
But no target loomed larger for Israel than Mr. Sinwar himself. Over his past year in hiding in the devastated enclave, he was believed to still be closely overseeing Hamas military operations.
Mr. Sinwar’s death raises hopes for an end to a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of Gazans and plunged many more into a humanitarian crisis.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel stopped short of declaring total victory against Hamas in a statement, and vowed to get the remaining hostages in Gaza released. He made an offer to the those holding hostages, promising to let them “leave and live” if they set aside their weapons and returned the captives.
His death might encourage Hamas to agree to Israeli demands, and might also offer Israel a military success that could lead the Netanyahu government to ease its negotiating stance. Hamas and the Israeli government have remained far apart on key issues during months of negotiations over a truce.
Here’s what else to know:
* Identifying the body: Israeli officials matched Mr. Sinwar’s dental information and fingerprints with records on file, the Israeli police said in a statement. The matches provided “definitive identification” of the Hamas leader, the police said.
* Reaction in Israel: For the families of the dozens of hostages remaining in Gaza, the death of Mr. Sinwar brought both a moment of satisfaction and deep trepidation for the fate of the captives.
* Hamas leadership: Mr. Sinwar’s death deals a significant blow to the militant organization’s leadership. These are some of the remaining leaders of the militant group.
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最新中東停火方案 – 紐約時報
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是結束殺戮的時候了！
Biden Endorses Israeli Road Map for a Cease-Fire in Gaza
05/31/024, Updated -06/01/24
The proposal, sent to Hamas through negotiators, would begin with a temporary six-week cease-fire that would pave the way for negotiations to eventually end the war and rebuild Gaza.
President Biden at the White House on Friday outlining a new three-phase proposal from the Israeli government that ideally would lead to a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.
Declaring Hamas no longer capable of carrying out a major terrorist attack on Israel, President Biden said on Friday that it was time for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and endorsed a new plan he said Israel had offered to win the release of hostages and end the fighting.
“It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Mr. Biden said, speaking from the State Dining Room at the White House. He also gave a stark description of Hamas’s diminished capabilities after more than seven months of Israeli attacks, saying that “at this point, Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7.”
“This is truly a decisive moment,” Mr. Biden said. “Israel has made their proposal. Hamas says it wants a cease-fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.”
With that statement, Mr. Biden appeared to be revealing his true agenda: making public elements of the proposal in an effort to pressure both Hamas and Israel to break out of a monthslong deadlock that has resulted in the killing of thousands of Palestinians.
American officials have described Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, as interested only in his own survival and that of his family and inner circle, as they presumably operate from tunnels deep under southern Gaza. But officials have also said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has little incentive to move to a real cease-fire, because of the widespread belief in Israel that as soon as the surviving hostages are returned, and a last cease-fire begins, he will most likely lose his fragile hold on power.
Mr. Biden’s remarks came at a pivotal moment in his re-election campaign, a day after his rival, former President Donald J. Trump, was convicted of 34 felony charges. At the same time, he has been facing growing pressure at home over the bloodshed in Gaza, which has led to eruptions on college campuses and on the streets of American cities, and alienated many of his own supporters.
Mr. Biden described the three-phase Israeli plan as a “comprehensive new proposal” that amounted to a road map to an “enduring cease-fire.” But at several moments in the past few months, Mr. Netanyahu has directly contradicted Mr. Biden. And so far Hamas has never accepted a comprehensive proposal, declaring in its public statements that fighting must end before major hostage releases or any agreement with Israel.
Hints of differences came almost as soon as Mr. Biden finished speaking. Following his speech, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said the Israeli government was “united in the desire to bring home our hostages as soon as possible.”
But it added that Mr. Netanyahu had stipulated to Israeli negotiators that they could not reach a deal that would end the war before all their goals were achieved, including the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capacities in Gaza.
“The exact outline that Israel has offered — including the conditional progression from stage to stage — enables Israel to maintain that principle,” Mr. Netanyahu’s office said.
Hamas reacted positively to Mr. Biden’s speech in a statement on social media, saying that it was willing to deal “constructively” with any cease-fire proposal based on a permanent truce, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes and a “serious prisoner exchange.”
Many of the hard-liners in Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition did not immediately respond to Mr. Biden’s address because of the Jewish Sabbath, which began before his remarks. Mr. Netanyahu’s nationalist allies, like Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, have said they could leave the government if an agreement ended the war before Hamas’s complete destruction.
“I know there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely,” Mr. Biden said, adding that some in Mr. Netanyahu’s government have made clear they want to “occupy Gaza.”
“They want to keep fighting for years, and the hostages are not a priority to them,” Mr. Biden said in what appeared to be a direct message to the far-right members of Mr. Netanyahu’s cabinet. “I’ve urged leadership of Israel to stand behind this deal.”
Mr. Biden has faced questions over how long he was willing to support Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, and particularly its most recent attacks in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The bloodshed in Gaza has left more than 36,000 people dead.
Israel’s national security adviser said this week that he expected the war to continue through at least the end of the year.
Global pressure to scale down the military operation increased after the International Court of Justice, an arm of the United Nations, ruled last week that Israel must halt its military offensive in Rafah. The court, however, has no means of enforcing the order.
Friday’s remarks were Mr. Biden’s first public comments about the war since an Israeli strike and subsequent fire on Sunday killed at least 45 people, including children, and wounded 249 in an encampment for the displaced, according to Gazan health officials. A visual analysis by The New York Times found that Israel used U.S.-made bombs in the strike, forcing the White House to face difficult questions over American responsibility for rising death toll.
Mr. Biden said on Friday that he saw the “terrible images” from the deadly fire.
“The Palestinian people have endured sheer hell in this war,” Mr. Biden said after describing the pain of those whose relatives were “slaughtered by Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7” and the “anguish” of Israeli families waiting for hostages to be released.
Mr. Biden also said too many innocent people had been killed in Gaza, “including thousands of children,” and addressed the many Americans who are infuriated over the way his administration has handled the conflict.
“I know this is a subject on which people in this country feel deep passionate convictions,” Mr. Biden added. “So do I. This has been one of the hardest, most complicated problems in the world. There’s nothing easy about this.”
In describing the four-and-a-half page Israeli proposal, Mr. Biden said it would be broken into three phases. The first would begin with a roughly six-week cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas of Gaza and a release of elderly and female hostages held by Hamas, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian detainees. Mr. Biden said there were still details that still needed to be negotiated to move on to the next phase — apparently including how many Palestinians would be released in return for each freed Israeli hostage.
In the second phase, as described by a senior administration official who briefed reporters after Mr. Biden spoke, all the remaining Israeli hostages would be released, including male soldiers. All hostilities would end, and, the official said, all Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza. In the past, Mr. Netanyahu has publicly rejected a complete withdrawal, maintaining that would result in a resurgent Hamas, once again in control of the territory.
It is unclear, from the description given to reporters in the briefing, who would govern the territory, though in the past the United States has said that would most likely be the Palestinian Authority, which has struggled to run the West Bank.
In the third phase, the remains of hostages who have died would be exchanged, rubble cleared and a three- to five-year reconstruction period would begin, backed by the United States, Europe and international institutions. But that plan sounded almost aspirational, given the level of destruction and the near-famine conditions.
Mr. Biden, however, portrayed this road map as reasonable — if the terrorist group goes along. “As long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary cease-fire will become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, a cessation of hostilities permanently,” Mr. Biden said.
American officials said they believed that following the meeting in Paris last weekend between William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, and David Barnea, the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency, Israel made significant concessions on the hostage talks. Those included reducing the number of live hostages they required to be released in the early phase.
Still, a person briefed on the matter said the negotiations were “on pause” while Israel conducts its operation in Rafah.
Mr. Biden has also been involved in the hostage talks, even though he has not traveled for any of the negotiating sessions. Mr. Biden’s role, officials said, has been most notable in the pressure he has put on Mr. Netanyahu to continue to negotiate and reduce Israeli demands.
But on Friday, Mr. Biden was clearly focusing his pressure on Hamas, arguing that taking this offer was their best shot at ending the war and moving toward a cease-fire.
“Everybody who wants peace now must raise their voices,” Mr. Biden said, adding that the public should let Hamas leaders “know they should take this deal. Work to make it real, make it lasting and forge a better future out of the tragic terror attack and war.”
Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting from Jerusalem, and Julian E. Barnes from Washington.
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《2023以巴戰爭分析》小評
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0. 前言
2023開打的以巴戰爭到現在，以、哈兩軍以及巴勒斯坦老百姓傷亡慘重。國際強權毫無斡旋能力；更不要說干預制止。過去一些名嘴、援嘴、學者津津樂道的「人道原則」、「美式和平」、和「自由主義主導下的國際秩序」等等，不但其「羊頭性」明明白白的公之於世，根本上可說已經完全破產。
弗里德門博士這篇文章分析這次以巴戰爭的本質(本欄上一篇)；頗有卓見。
1. 原文譯述
他的分析有五個重點：
1) 以色列軍方/情報局不可能在事先不知道哈瑪斯的攻擊計畫；只是以色列政府沒有把它當一會事。
2) 哈瑪斯10/07發動攻擊的目的不在打敗以色列；而在破壞阿拉伯國家向以色列「靠近」。
3) 在上述第2)點外，哈瑪斯立馬在以下兩個政治面取得勝利：
3)a 讓以色列政府進退維谷；
3)b 贏得世界輿論同情；此處弗里德門博士強調「戰爭的『政治本質』」。
4) 戰爭有多重型態；對於小國來說，優勢軍力不是唯一取勝之道。
5)a 政治領袖不可高估自己的實力；
5)b 也不可低估操縱敵人心理的效果。
此外，原文倒數第二段最後這兩句話可以給社會運動者加油打氣：
“Someone once asked: How many military divisions does opinion have? The answer is none, but it can shape the world and is thus vital to a small country like Israel.”
因為，輿論不只對小國政府有壓力，它的確能「影響世局」。
2. 小評
1) 如「前言」中提及：美國政府，尤其拜登，是這次戰爭的輸家。且不說來勢洶洶的川普，以色列政府/軍隊的草菅人命讓拜登淪為過街老鼠。面對連任危機，白宮連一個小小的以色列都搞不定，擺不平；還談什麼「圍堵」中國。
2) 戰爭是玩政治的手段之一(該文第1節)；只要有「眾人」就有「政治」；只要有「政治」，就免不了有陰險狡詐的小人使用「戰爭」這個撇步(該文2.1-2)小節)。何況還有等著發戰爭財的奸商，以及她/他們豢養的援嘴與智庫學者群在旁搖旗吶喊唯恐天下不亂。
3) 雖然如此，「戰爭」畢竟殘酷和有著巨大的破壞力。以人類的智慧，即使不能完全免除「戰爭」發生，至少設計出降低它發生率的機制應該是可能的。此處請參看《《從人類學看人類自相殘殺史》簡介》一欄的兩篇文章。
本文於 修改第 7 次
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2023以巴戰爭分析 -- George Friedman
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請參看本欄下一篇《小評》。
Understanding the Israel-Hamas War
George Friedman, 03/05/24
Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. The group understood that the attack would all but necessitate a shift in Israel’s national security strategy, but it likely believed that weakening the alliance that was coalescing around it – comprising Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – made the risk worth it. Hamas further understood that it lacked the military capacity to defeat the Israeli military, so ahead of the attacks, it sought support from the Arab world. It’s difficult to believe Hamas could have done this without Israel finding out, so it’s likely that Israel did find out and dismissed its goal as impossible to achieve.
In a sense, Israel was correct. No Arab or Islamic country or movement was prepared to ally militarily with Hamas. The group thought that while a direct, combined attack on Israel would not succeed, it was still possible to force Israel into an untenable position. We now know that this was the line of thinking because Hamas did indeed attack Israel and, in doing so, isolated it from other potential allies. This decision shows Oct. 7 was more complex and, to an extent, more successful than initially thought.
The attack surprised Israeli intelligence, which had failed to understand Hamas’ thinking. Oct. 7 was designed not to break the Israeli military but to create a situation in which Israel could neither decline combat nor bring decisive force to bear because it did not want to endanger the lives of the hostages Hamas was holding. The taking of hostages was meant to drive Israel into a sense of rage and impotence and to sow seeds of doubt in Israeli intelligence.
It’s possible that Hamas expected other Arab forces, particularly Hezbollah, to join the fray. When that didn’t happen, Hamas went to Plan B. If reinforcements weren’t coming, then it wanted to focus Israel on a target that did not have decisive value but was essential to attack and would incur political costs. Thus Hamas activated forces in northern Gaza and introduced reinforcements knowing that the cost would be high. Israel had no choice. With the hostage situation unresolved, a massive attack in northern Gaza would mean that rather than weakening, Hamas was widening its presence. Wars are political affairs, and the Israeli Cabinet had to decide to attack from the air to calm the situation and mollify (緩和，安撫) the growing hostility to the government. Israel hoped that airstrikes and special operations would break Hamas. But Hamas was fighting urban warfare on its own terrain – a terrain where disengagement and sudden counterattacks were practical choices.
I suspect that Hamas knew – or at least more sophisticated movements in the Arab world advised them – that a massive Israeli response in northern Gaza that brought the world’s attention to the Palestinian casualties could bring enough pressure on Israel to force an outcome favorable to Hamas. Israel tried to counter the narrative by pointing to the hostages taken by Hamas, but Israeli public relations campaigns have been poor, to say the least. (Israel has historically been good in this regard but failed to grasp that the decisions being made and broadcast about Hamas were vastly outperforming their own efforts.)
Israel is now caught in a war in northern Gaza with a rigid Cabinet that won’t accept a strategic retreat and a media ecosystem criticizing its approach. Hamas had been seen as responsible for the war; now it’s Israel.
At this point, Israel’s military options are limited, thanks in no small part to the shift in public opinion in its most important ally, the United States. The possibility of a successful assault on Hamas is dwindling, and even Israeli citizens are demonstrating for a deal to be made for the remaining Israeli hostages. Someone once asked: How many military divisions does opinion have? The answer is none, but it can shape the world and is thus vital to a small country like Israel.
When I look at all this, I think that Hamas by accident struck at Israel’s political and military structure and that Israel has still not understood that there are different kinds of war, any one of which can defeat you. It would also seem to me that Israel made a fundamental mistake: Its military, while competent and technologically savvy, has convinced the country that it is a bigger power than it is in reality. Technology is fine, but war is driven by subtle and careful leaders who do not overestimate their power or underestimate the power of manipulating the enemy’s mind. An important lesson for us all.
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美國政壇對以、巴戰爭的反應 -- Lara Seligman
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'Clearly a number of failures': Lawmakers asking what went wrong following Hamas' surprise attack
Lara Seligman, 10/08/23
U.S. lawmakers and former national security officials are already pointing to a possible massive intelligence failure by the Israelis following Hamas' surprise attack in Israel on Saturday and are seeking more information from the Biden administration.
Among other things, members of Congress want to know how Hamas was able to penetrate Israel's sophisticated network of air defenses, sending hundreds of rockets from Gaza into Israel. The lawmakers are focused on Israel and are avoiding blaming the U.S. intelligence community, at least for now.
President Joe Biden's team briefed House and Senate intelligence committee staffers on the unfolding situation in Israel on Saturday morning, according to two congressional aides, who had knowledge of the briefings and were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive talks. Members of the committees have asked for a briefing as soon as they return to Washington on Tuesday.
"That something of this size could be pulled off, I can tell you that that is not done without a lot of observable signals," said Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. "It was kind of shocking in its size and ambition."
Himes cautioned that he wants to "withhold judgment" until he gets all the facts. Still, while Israeli intelligence is "about as good as it gets," the attack "raises lots of questions about who knew what," he said.
On the other side of the aisle, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), a former Green Beret and member of the House Intelligence Committee, said there were "clearly a number of failures."
"I don't see how this got past their [human intelligence] network. There was clearly a [signals intelligence] issue," Waltz said. "Was there a complacency on the Israelis' part? ... I don't know how they would have coordinated all of that without some type of secure communications is what my mind keeps going to."
Former national security officials also expressed shock that Israeli intelligence officials did not detect the attacks ahead of time.
Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official and CIA officer, called the attacks an “intelligence failure,” noting that there were likely indications of “a buildup of munitions and the preparation of the assault force,” as well as cyber activity.
While he placed blame for the failure primarily on Israeli officials, he said U.S. intelligence also should have picked up on some of the indicators. The U.S. does not provide air defense coverage for Israel, but the two countries share intelligence.
“They should have picked up something of this scale,” Mulroy said.
The complexity of the operation indicates a nation-state such as Iran was likely behind it, he said, noting that one reason may have been to scuttle U.S.-brokered talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
“If Iran was behind it and is orchestrating this in any sense, they have multiple proxies around Israel, and could escalate by initiating attacks from multiple directions, including Syria,” Mulroy said.
One former Israeli security official told POLITICO the unprecedented attack was a “catastrophic” failure that was allowed to happen by “disarray” in the Israeli armed forces and intelligence services.
“It’s a failure in terms of intelligence, operationally,” said Chuck Freilich, the country’s former deputy national security adviser. “It’s clear we were caught totally unprepared by this. The divisional headquarters responsible for Gaza was occupied, they’re in disarray, and so the whole response has been delayed.”
Himes also said Iran was likely involved in orchestrating the attack.
"We are absolutely going to support Israel in every way we can, and this is going to end very badly for Hamas," Himes said. "If Iran had a hand in this, it will end badly for Iran."
Waltz blamed the Biden administration for what he characterized as its weak Iran policy for enabling Tehran to continue supplying Hamas and Hezbollah with weapons. The two groups were allowed to build up a massive stockpile of unguided rockets that could overwhelm Israel's Iron Dome air defenses, he said.
"The entity that is fully funding and resourcing it is Iran," Waltz said. "All roads go back to the failures of this administration's Iran policy. Iran is 100 percent calling the shots."
A spokesperson for the National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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以巴戰爭最新報導 – 美聯社
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Hamas surprise attack out of Gaza stuns Israel and leaves hundreds dead in fighting, retaliation
JOSEF FEDERMAN and ISSAM ADWAN, 10/08/23
JERUSALEM (AP) — Backed by a barrage of rockets, Hamas militants stormed from the blockaded Gaza Strip into nearby Israeli towns, killing dozens and abducting others in an unprecedented surprise attack during a major Jewish holiday Saturday. A stunned Israel launched airstrikes in Gaza, with its prime minister saying the country is now at war with Hamas and vowing to inflict an “unprecedented price.”
In an assault of startling breadth, Hamas gunmen rolled into as many as 22 locations outside the Gaza Strip, including towns and other communities as far as 15 miles (24 kilometers) from the Gaza border. In some places they gunned down civilians and soldiers as Israel’s military scrambled to muster a response.
Gunbattles continued well after nightfall, and militants held hostages in standoffs in two towns. Militants occupied a police station in a third town, where Israeli forces struggled until Sunday morning to finally reclaim the building.
Israeli media, citing rescue service officials, said at least 250 people were killed and 1,500 wounded, making it the deadliest attack in Israel in decades. At least 232 people in the Gaza Strip were killed and 1,700 wounded in Israeli strikes, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. Hamas fighters took an unknown number of civilians and soldiers captive into Gaza.
The conflict threatened to escalate with Israel’s vows of retaliation. Previous conflicts between Israel and Gaza’s Hamas rulers brought widespread death and destruction in Gaza and days of rocket fire on Israeli towns. The situation is potentially more volatile now, with Israel’s far-right government stung by the security breach and with Palestinians in despair over a never-ending occupation in the West Bank and suffocating blockade of Gaza.
In a televised address Saturday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who earlier declared Israel to be at war, said the military will use all of its strength to destroy Hamas’ capabilities. But he warned, “This war will take time. It will be difficult.”
“All the places that Hamas hides in, operates from, we will turn them into ruins,” he added. “Get out of there now,” he told Gaza residents, who have no way to leave the tiny, overcrowded Mediterranean territory of 2.3 million people.
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza intensified after nightfall, flattening residential buildings in giant explosions, including a 14-story tower that held dozens of apartments as well as Hamas offices in central Gaza City. Israeli forces fired a warning just before.
Around 3 a.m., a loudspeaker atop a mosque in Gaza City blared a stark warning to residents of nearby apartment buildings: Evacuate immediately. Just minutes later, an Israeli airstrike reduced one nearby five-story building to ashes.
After one Israeli strike, a Hamas rocket barrage hit four cities, including Tel Aviv and a nearby suburb. Throughout the day, Hamas fired more than 3,500 rockets, the Israeli military said.
The strength, sophistication and timing of the Saturday morning attack shocked Israelis. Hamas fighters used explosives to break through the border fence enclosing Gaza, then crossed with motorcycles, pickup trucks, paragliders and speed boats on the coast.
In some towns, civilians’ bodies lay where they had encountered advancing gunmen. At least nine people gunned down at a bus shelter in the town of Sderot were laid out on stretchers on the street, their bags still on the curb nearby. One woman, screaming, embraced the body of a family member sprawled under a sheet next to a toppled motorcycle.
In amateur video, hundreds of terrified young people who had been dancing at a rave fled for their lives after Hamas militants entered the area and began firing at them. Israeli media said dozens of people were killed.
Among the dead was Col. Jonathan Steinberg, a senior officer who commanded the Israeli military’s Nahal Brigade, a prominent infantry unit.
The shadowy leader of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Deif, said the assault was in response to the 16-year blockade of Gaza, Israeli raids inside West Bank cities over the past year, violence at Al Aqsa — the disputed Jerusalem holy site sacred to Jews as the Temple Mount — increasing attacks by settlers on Palestinians and the growth of settlements.
“Enough is enough,” Deif, who does not appear in public, said in the recorded message. He said the attack was only the start of what he called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm” and called on Palestinians from east Jerusalem to northern Israel to join the fight.
The Hamas incursion on Simchat Torah, a normally joyous day when Jews complete the annual cycle of reading the Torah scroll, revived painful memories of the 1973 Mideast war practically 50 years to the day, in which Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, aiming to take back Israeli-occupied territories.
Comparisons to one of the most traumatic moments in Israeli history sharpened criticism of Netanyahu and his far-right allies, who had campaigned on more aggressive action against threats from Gaza. Political commentators lambasted the government and military over its failure to anticipate what appeared to be a Hamas attack unseen in its level of planning and coordination.
Asked by reporters how Hamas had managed to catch the army off guard, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, an Israeli army spokesman, replied, “That’s a good question.”
The abduction of Israeli civilians and soldiers also raised a particularly thorny issue for Israel, which has a history of making heavily lopsided exchanges to bring captive Israelis home. Israel is holding thousands of Palestinians in its prisons. Hecht confirmed that “substantial” number of Israelis were abducted Saturday.
Associated Press photos showed an elderly Israeli woman being brought into Gaza on a golf cart by Hamas gunmen and another woman squeezed between two fighters on a motorcycle. AP journalists saw four people taken from the kibbutz of Kfar Azza, including two women.
In Gaza, a black jeep pulled to a stop and, when the rear door opened, a young Israeli woman stumbled out, bleeding from the head and with her hands tied behind her back. A man waving a gun in the air grabbed her by the hair and pushed her into the vehicle’s back seat. Israeli TV reported that workers from Thailand and the Philippines were also among the captives.
Netanyahu vowed that Hamas “will pay an unprecedented price.” A major question now was whether Israel will launch a ground assault into Gaza, a move that in the past has brought intensified casualties.
Israel’s military was bringing four divisions of troops as well as tanks to the Gaza border, joining 31 battalions already in the area, the spokesman Hagari said. And the Israeli military later released an Arabic-language video warning Gazans to leave their homes in targeted areas of the dense coastal enclave.
In Gaza, much of the population was thrown into darkness after nightfall as electrical supplies from Israel — which supplies almost all the territories’ power — were cut off. Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that Israel would stop supplying electricity, fuel and goods to Gaza.
Hamas said it had planned for a potentially long fight. “We are prepared for all options, including all-out war,” the deputy head of the Hamas political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, told Al-Jazeera TV. “We are ready to do whatever is necessary for the dignity and freedom of our people.”
U.S. President Joe Biden said from the White House that he had spoken with Netanyahu to say the United States “stands with the people of Israel in the face of these terrorist assaults. Israel has the right to defend itself and its people, full stop.”
Saudi Arabia, which has been in talks with the U.S. about normalizing relations with Israel, called on both sides to exercise restraint. The kingdom said it had repeatedly warned about the danger of “the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation (and) the Palestinian people being deprived of their legitimate rights.”
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group congratulated Hamas, praising the attack as a response to “Israeli crimes.” The group said its command in Lebanon was in contact with Hamas about the operation.
The attack comes at a time of historic division within Israel over Netanyahu’s proposal to overhaul the judiciary. Mass protests over the plan have sent hundreds of thousands of Israeli demonstrators into the streets and prompted hundreds of military reservists to avoid volunteer duty — turmoil that has raised fears over the military’s battlefield readiness.
It also comes at a time of mounting tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, with the peace process effectively dead for years. Over the past year, Israel’s far-right government has ramped up settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, Israeli settler violence has displaced hundreds of Palestinians there and tensions have flared around a flashpoint Jerusalem holy site.
Palestinians demonstrated in towns and cities around the West Bank on Saturday night. Palestinian health officials said Israeli fire killed five there, but gave few details.
Adwan reported from Rafah, Gaza Strip. Associated Press writers Wafaa Shurafa in Gaza City and Isabel DeBre and Julia Frankel in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
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