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國際股市與國際經濟[之一]>why外資大買日股 ?
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國際股市與國際經濟[之一]>why外資大買日股 ?
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1348504&tpno=1&no=3446&cate_no=0
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備註：
因為全球太多人想要知道我把前文乙篇 傳給了誰
>> Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1327310&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
所以聯合報將本網棧右上方的尋找功能取消
造成許多不便 也包括我本人在內
職是之故
我目前將各欄首文編入
>>cathy20048 所著各文總目錄
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=2349898&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
日後還會進行分類與子目錄的建立
以及關鍵字 乃至簡介說明
一時之間還作不完
不方便在所難免
==============================
以下新聞配合下址日經225的半年走勢圖來看
印象會比較清楚
圖中紅線是200日均線 相當於年線
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EN225&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=,e200&a=vm&c=
評述在結尾處
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2005.08.19 中國時報
日股「黎明將至」 外資大買
林秀津/綜合外電報導
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110507+112005081900288,00.html
曾讓許多投資人柔腸寸斷的日本股市
近期透露出「黎明將至」的訊號。
許多看好日本經濟前景的外資近來大手筆買超，
分析師紛紛表示近期日股的漲勢預示中長期多頭走勢即將展開，
也有人大膽預言日股年底將站上一萬三千點。
在外資力捧下，週四日經指數在亞洲股市普遍下跌中表現一枝獨秀，
上揚○．三％，指數已逼近四年最高。
日本十五家民間調查機構
週三彙整二○○五年度及二○○六年度日本經濟預測指出，
扣除掉物價變動之後，
二○○五年度的國內生產毛額（GDP）實質成長率平均為一．九％。
這些調查機構預測今年設備投資、個人消費將趨堅挺，
並有十三家機構向上修正五月時所做的預測值。
在油價不斷攀升可能侵蝕企業獲利的疑慮下，
週四亞洲股市普遍下跌，
香港、台灣、南韓、澳洲等地股市
分別出現介於○．五％到一．八％之間的跌幅。
但在亞股普遍走跌聲中，近來氣勢頗旺的日股
卻仍逆勢上漲三四點，指數收在一二三○七．三七點。
除了本地投資人外，近期推升日股持續上揚的關鍵力量來自外資。
根據日本政府公布的最新數據，
上週外資對日股買超七千二百一十九億日圓，
為三月中旬以來最高單週買超金額，
該週同時也是外資連續第九週買超日股。
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為何外資敢這麼大手筆買進日股?
使得日股漲勢驚人?
就是因為日股的獲利率經過衡量之後
外資發覺日股物美價廉
而衡量的基準在哪裡呢?
理由就是[Relative EPS]的觀念
個人予以推廣到全世界
請詳見
>>If you do not invest any, just ignore this.
>> 7/21 盤中分析 相信有許多人看不懂今天的盤勢
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1317233&tpno=0&raid=1338855&no=3446&t=t&cate_no=0#rep1338855
本文於 修改第 1 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[之八]>批評諾貝爾經濟學獎得主羅伯特·恩格爾29日演說:股市波動與國家財富
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讓我們來這樣想
股市波動何以知道?
就是歷史軌跡嘛!
在怎樣的情況下
歷史軌跡成了[不足為訓]?
新的典範建立之後
舊的玩法自然破功
套一句今年諾貝爾經濟學得主謝林所說的:
[政策(謀算)被料到 則歸於無效]
新舊因此交替
現下已經是新的典範建立
舊有的玩法將祇是一個效力逐日而減的[干擾素]
我在前文
>>[貨幣政策無用論]諸文
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1331187&tpno=2&no=3446&cate_no=0
將謝林歸於第三代凱因斯經濟學派學者
如今一切證明全球經濟趨勢
已經按照我所說的來進行新的佈署:
這當中最明顯的就是上個月下旬
寫給住在德國的猶太人開始
使得台股自十一月起
歐系外資天天買超
其實個人已經寫給全球了
further attachment to> If you do not invest any, just ignore this.
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1327310&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
一個新的股市投資運動已經是風起雲湧
換言之
新的典範[Relative EPS Equation]已經橫掃世界
影響力遍佈全球
而為何還有這種舊典範試圖翻本?
乃因使用舊典範在撈錢的美國熱錢深知
只要新典範[Relative EPS Equation]繼續橫掃下去
全球經濟將不復炒作
美國經濟也會因為如此
套句某聯準會成員的話:
美國會變成第三世界國家!
不過這是有點誇張啦
大陸的胡錦濤政權會救美國的
不管美國是怎樣謀算中國 機關算盡
大陸都會幫美國的
所以胡錦濤政權是不是在出賣中國?
是不是在出賣全世界利益?
是不是認賊作父?
不用幾年我們就可以知道了
總之
今天新典範[Relative EPS Equation]業已建立了
康德所謂的[哥白尼視野]
威力已見
倘若是新典範[Relative EPS Equation]徹底擊垮
下面所附的這則新聞中的諾貝爾學者 其理論
也許就是cathy20048來領諾貝爾獎的時候
當相對論可以縮小到 E=mc2 這麼小的公式當中
經濟學也可以是[Relative EPS Equation]那樣簡單
=================================
2005.11.21 中國時報
諾貝爾經濟學獎得主羅伯特·恩格爾29日演說:股市波動與國家財富
陳一姍/台北報導
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110507+112005112100194,00.html
諾貝爾經濟學獎史上第三位計量經濟學得主羅伯特·恩格爾（Robert F. Engle），二十九日應中國時報與寶來證券集團之邀，來台以「股市波動與國家財富」為題發表專題演說，並與企業界進行對談。
恩格爾將於十一月二十九日下午兩點到四點，於福華文教會館發表演說。座談會由中國時報系總經理黃肇松主持，除了演講，恩格爾也將與台灣金融研訓院院長薛琦、寶來集團總裁白文正、國際經濟合作協會理事長辜濂松、遠東集團董事長徐旭東等進行對談，歡迎有興趣的讀者參加。
2003年恩格爾和英國經濟學家克萊夫·格蘭傑，一同奪下諾貝爾經濟學獎桂冠。這是繼首屆1969年和2000年之後，計量經濟學第三度獲獎。現年62歲的羅伯特·恩格爾，是美國紐約大學斯特恩商學院金融服務管理教授。他的貢獻在於建立描述經濟時間序列資料時變波動性的關鍵概念：自回歸條件異方差(ARCH)，並發展一系列波動性模型及統計分析方法。瑞典皇家科學院稱他不僅是研究員們學習的光輝典範，而且也是金融分析家的楷模，他不僅為研究員們提供了不可或缺的工具，還為分析家們在資產定價、資產配置和風險評估方面找到了捷徑。
作為近近20年來金融計量領域的重要開拓者，他對金融市場分析長期持有濃厚的興趣，在金融計量經濟學的興趣涉及金融市場微觀結構、權益資產、利率、匯率和期權等。 在恩格爾看來，隨著電子化交易的發展，未來的金融計量經濟學可以使金融市場的做市商、 經紀人和交易者，借助於統計分析，自動地根據特定市場環境和目標做出最優的策略。
本文於 修改第 3 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[之七]>前FED主席&美林高盛首席經濟學家都在求Greenspan不要升息 難囉!
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前FED主席&美林高盛首席經濟學家都在求Greenspan不要升息> 不升息? 難囉!
美聯社這篇新聞特別指本日聯準會考慮要不要升息
其實此次不升息
以後也得升息
因為cathy20048說
不升息就準備over-inflation
理由在
>>[If you do not invest any, just ignore this.]
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/reply.jsp?no=3446&aid=1348504
>>[貨幣政策無用論]系列各文
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1331187&tpno=1&no=3446&cate_no=0
Greenspan餘生得要浩嘆遭遇cathy20048
因為cathy20048的[relative EPS equation]
使得所有貨幣理論都要成為廢紙了
使得全世界的央行成為冷衙門了
使得美國即將成為第三世界國家了
看得懂這篇文章的美國人
請轉告Greenspan告訴他
這就是後現代的[Butterfly Effect]
> ///, ///
> \ /, / >.
> \ /, _/ /.
> \_ /_/ /.
> \__/_ <<
> /<<<<<< \_\_
> /,)^>>_._ \
> (/ \\ /\\\
> // ````
> ==============((`=========
BusinessWeek Online
Fathoming the Fed's Next Moves
Monday September 19, 8:05 am ET
By Rich Miller
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/050919/nf200509194520_db035.html?.v=1
Ever since Hurricane Katrina tore through the Gulf region three weeks ago,
financial markets have been fixated on a single question about
the Federal Reserve.
Will the destruction prompt Fed policymakers
to pause in their 16-month-old campaign of interest rate hikes?
With Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his central bank colleagues
due to meet Tuesday, Sept. 20, to map monetary strategy,
a growing number of analysts expect
the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee
to plow ahead with another quarter percentage point rate
increase in the Fed funds rate, to 3.75%.
Included in that group:
former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer,
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS - News)
Chief Economist Bill Dudley,
and Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - News)
Chief Economist David Rosenberg,
each of whom had previously expected the Fed
to take a break from raising rates.
But all the focus on what the Fed will -- or won't --
do on Tuesday misses the main point.
The key question
isn't whether Greenspan & Co. raise rates on Tuesday.
Even those few analysts who still expect the Fed
to hold off from taking action admit that
any pause in the hikes is likely to be temporary.
What's critical is how far the central bank
will ultimately jack up rates.
And to figure that out,
it's more important to pay attention to what
the Fed has to say about the economy and monetary policy
than what it actually does with rates on Tuesday.
Here are some things to watch for:
Description of the Economy:
Given the havoc wrought by Katrina,
a major rewrite of this section of the Fed's statement is likely.
Fed officials reckon that
the economy can weather the hurricane's hit
without tumbling into a recession.
But they admit that the storm will cut into second-half growth,
perhaps slowing it by a half to three-quarters of a percentage point.
Economic growth through next year should be stronger,
thanks to the tens of billions of dollars that
the federal government will spend on reconstruction.
The inflation outlook is also murky.
The steep rise in gasoline and other energy prices in the wake of Katrina
will sharply boost inflation in the short run.
But whether that proves transitory or results
in a permanently higher level of inflation
depends on a host of factors, including
the stance of monetary policy, the amount of slack in the economy,
and how consumers and companies respond to the energy shock.
Keys to look for include
the Fed's descriptions of inflationary pressures and expectations.
If it continues to characterize price pressures as "elevated" --
and judging by what officials have said in public and private,
Fed officials will -- it's a sign that
the central bank isn't ready to stop raising rates.
As for inflation expectations, the Fed has called them "well contained."
Any alteration in that assessment -- which is far less likely,
in the view of most Wall Street analysts --
would also point to higher rates, perhaps sharply higher.
Balance-of-Risks Statement:
Ever since May, 2004, the Fed has effectively said
the risks to both economic growth and inflation are about in balance.
It has, though, tinkered with the wording over that time.
In its current iteration,
the statement says such risks are roughly equal,
contingent on "appropriate monetary policy."
Some officials admit that
this robs the phrase of most of its meaning.
After all, why would the Fed
knowingly follow an inappropriate monetary policy?
These officials prefer to junk that wording completely.
Given all the uncertainties in the post-Katrina outlook,
the arguments in favor of deep-sixing the balance-of-risks assessment
could take on added weight.
Monetary Policy Guidance:
As the Fed has raised rates steadily over the last 16 months,
it has continued to describe monetary policy as "accommodative"
and repeated Greenspan's belief that
such accommodation could be removed at a "measured" pace.
That has come to mean --
at least in the eyes of many in the markets --
that the Fed is all but committed to raising rates
a quarter-point each time it meets.
Fed officials insist that isn't so and
could take advantage of the uncertain economic outlook
to dispense with the reference to "measured" rate hikes.
That would give them added flexibility
in carrying out monetary policy in the future.
If the economy starts to look weak,
they could skip raising rates at some future meeting.
If inflation appears to be a significant problem,
they could step up the pace of rate increases
to a half percentage point
without having to worry about blindsiding the markets.
The Fed's description of its monetary policy stance
is particularly important.
If it continues to characterize policy as accommodative, that means
short-term rates have further to rise.
The betting among most analysts
is that's what the central bank will do.
But if the Fed drops that characterization -- or modifies it,
for example,
by describing policy as "somewhat accommodative" --
this could be a sign that
the central bank is nearing the end of its rate-hiking campaign.
Tuesday's meeting
promises to be the most interesting in quite some time.
If investors are to understand its true import,
they'll have to pay attention to
both what the Fed does -- and what it says.
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國際股市與國際經濟[之六]>經濟政策研究中心及國際貨幣研究中心聯合報告>藉此呈告人民銀行周小川總裁
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「在美國國內的廉價信用之外，供應容易的全球信用，
也已經讓美國政府及美國有屋階級難以自拔。
當這些資金轉移投資目標時，其撤離將會帶來痛苦的。」
是的
這是cathy20048的理論威力[the Relative EPS Equation]
>>If you do not invest any, just ignore this.
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/reply.jsp?no=3446&aid=1348504
日本與台灣這兩個投資美國最多的第二名與第三名
都已經逐步撤離美國國庫券的投資
剩下的就是一直賣交情給美國的大陸了
大陸央行總裁周小川閣下
您還要把中國的國有資產如此眼睜睜地
等到其投資效益日益惡化嗎?
不過
就另外一個層面而言
個人已經幫助中國順利解決幾件事情
一是嚴厲打擊熱錢倒把
與新任香港特首曾蔭權對抗熱錢有功
個人理論足令熱錢瓦解乃致消亡
中國乃至全世界都應該感謝個人
其次
也由於是項理論
使得下文所述[通貨緊縮及成長率降低的風險]
不會發生於亞洲或是大陸
見前文
>>[貨幣政策無用論]系列各文
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1331187&tpno=1&no=3446&cate_no=0
再者
個人理論也替中國解決最大的敵國外患__美國
透過個人個理論
[the Relative EPS Equation]以及[貨幣政策無用論]
cathy20048即將以經濟手段搞倒世界第一強國
美國即將歩入至少長達30年的大衰退
以凱因斯以及其高弟Samuelson的理論
打敗芝加哥貨幣學派
算是為凱因斯報了一箭之仇
不過有關於此
還要多包括個人另一項理論
[解決油價繼續攀高的超大方策]系列諸文
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1169662&tpno=2&raid=1208568&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep1208568
有關即此
個人留意到此一方策業已為中南海所接納
而正在逐步展開與俄羅斯
與伊朗等中東各國的電力開發計畫
很高興中國有最英明的領導階層
能夠明白個人一己的苦心孤詣
個人一心一意就是要讓中國
可以順利度過這段高度關鍵的三十年
順利站穩東亞第一強國地位
以求在本世紀中葉
重新成為世界第一強國
須知
中國失去世界第一強國地位
不是在乾隆年間
而是在明成祖到明神宗這段時間
也就是距今五六百年前
================================
2005.09.17 工商時報
美貿赤激增 勿歸咎亞洲
李鐏龍/綜合外電報導
根據金融時報週五在報導中指出，
一群深具影響力的經濟學家週五發表研究報告，
呼籲美國政治人物不應再將
美國貿易赤字的激增，歸咎於亞洲國家，
並(指出美國)要求亞洲貨幣升值，如人民幣，
因為這不必然就能解決問題，
但卻會為亞洲帶來通貨緊縮及成長率降低的風險。
這份由歐洲兩大領導智庫
經濟政策研究中心及國際貨幣研究中心，聯合完成的報告，
將在下週登場的國際貨幣基金（IMF）及世界銀行年會前夕發表，
反應出經濟學家對於全球經濟失衡，愈來愈感到憂心忡忡。
報告指出，在一九九七年到二○○四年之間，
美國的經常帳逆差增加五二九○億美元，
但其中只有七％來自中國。
同期間，石油出口國、俄羅斯及中東的經常帳順差部位
共增加一六○○億美元，相當於美國逆差增加部位的三分之一。
這份報告將全球貿易前所未見的失衡狀況，
歸因於亞洲、石油出口國及美國的儲蓄與投資不能協調，
而非僅係亞洲國家刻意壓低貨幣幣值以擴增貿易順差，
或是全球儲蓄過剩所造成的。
報告並警告說，
亞洲貨幣普遍化的貶值，不必然就能解決問題，
反而會為亞洲帶來通貨緊縮及成長率降低的風險。
執筆的經濟學家建議採取一種協同的做法，
其中美國應增加儲蓄及削減預算赤字，
亞洲國家則應放寬國內物價的彈性及並善用外匯存底，
如追求高過目前所投資美國安全資產的報酬率。
執筆經濟學家其中之一的普薩德（AvinashPersaud）表示，
就算亞洲高水準的儲蓄確為全球失衡的肇因，
但美國本身對外國人提供的廉價信用，也已依賴成癮，
「在美國國內的廉價信用之外，供應容易的全球信用，
也已經讓美國政府及美國有屋階級難以自拔。
當這些資金轉移投資目標時，其撤離將會帶來痛苦的。」
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國際股市與國際經濟[之五]>儘管有風災重建激勵 美國房市依然日益趨緊 即將有經濟硬著陸 [精擷美聯社英文新聞]
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Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said that
"the housing boom will inevitably simmer down"
with prices slowing and possibly even falling.
The issue of how much of a slowdown will occur
...
will depend to large extent on
the course of interest rates in coming months.
"...," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
"But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting,
then the downturn in housing could be more severe."
The devastation from Hurricane Katrina
could turn out to help the housing industry,
mainly through falling interest rates.
註: 否則變成是上句:
"then the downturn in housing could be more severe."
But if rising energy prices
spread into more widespread inflation pressures
and the Fed feels it needs to
raise interest rates more quickly, then
analysts said
housing could be in for a rougher landing.
Some see a slowdown in home sales as beneficial
"If the frenzied buying levels off,
the market will become more balanced between supply and demand"
and help to ease price pressures,
said Lawrence Yun, senior economist
at the National Association of Realtors.
這意味的是美國房市過熱
而且是原先就顯示出不正常的過熱
以下是全文
該新聞最下方的幾個建議可以研究研究
此處僅摘錄最後一個建議:
OTHER IDEAS:
People who find they are still priced out of a particular area
might consider moving to a smaller house or farther out.
For people 62 or older and in need of cash,
they might consider taking out a reverse mortgage
that would allow them to borrow against the equity in their home
and never repay the loan as long as they live in the house.
=====================================================
AP
Housing Slowdown Could Spell Trouble
Monday September 5, 5:42 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050905/housing_boom_bust.html?.v=6
Slowdown in Red-Hot Housing Market
Could Spell Trouble for Vulnerable Homeowners
WASHINGTON (AP) --
The nation's red-hot housing market may finally be nearing its peak,
meaning the end of double-digit annual percentage price
gains for homeowners
and potential trouble for more recent purchasers who stretched to buy.
That's the assessment of economists, who
concede they have been forecasting a cooldown in housing
for some time only to be confounded
as sales and prices continued to boom.
Sales have certainly been sizzling this year,
putting the country on track for a fifth straight year of record
purchases of new and existing homes.
Home prices have been surging as well.
The government reported last week that
prices jumped by 13.4 percent in the April-June quarter this year,
compared with the same period a year ago,
the biggest increase in 25 years.
That is more than double the average annual price
gains of 6 percent recorded over the past three decades.
But scattered among the statistics are some signs of a slowdown.
In July, sales of existing homes fell by 2.6 percent
even though the nationwide median price rose to a record $218,000.
Homes in some areas
are staying on the market longer before they sell
and the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that
its index of demand for home mortgages
now stands 11 percent below a June peak.
And none other than Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said that
"the housing boom will inevitably simmer down"
with prices slowing and possibly even falling.
The issue of how much of a slowdown will occur
and whether home prices will fall or just not rise at double-digit rates
will depend to large extent on
the course of interest rates in coming months.
"I think what we have in store
is a slow deflating of the housing bubble,
not a bursting of the bubble,"
said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
"But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then
the downturn in housing could be more severe."
The devastation from Hurricane Katrina
could turn out to help the housing industry,
mainly through falling interest rates.
Investors pushed rates lower this week in anticipation that Katrina
and the resulting surge in energy prices
will act as a drag on economic growth and
could persuade the Federal Reserve to
pause in its 14-month campaign to push rates higher.
As a result, rates on 30-year mortgages dipped to 5.71 percent,
down from a high this year of 6.04 percent set in late March.
David Seiders, chief economist
for the National Association of Home Builders, said
rebuilding from Katrina's devastation
probably will not have much impact on the overall housing market
since residential building permits for all of Louisiana and Mississippi
last year amounted to just 1.8 percent of the national total.
But analysts are forecasting that housing sales
will begin to decline from record levels
by the end of this year and into 2006.
The slowing sales pace is expected to end the super-sized price
gains many parts of the country have experienced.
Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp.
in Cleveland, said he believes 53 metropolitan areas,
representing 31 percent of the country's housing market,
were "extremely overvalued and
confront a high risk of a future price correction."
And what might that price correction look like?
DeKaser said over the past 20 years,
64 cities have seen home price declines of 10 percent or more
over a period of two years.
But all of those declines occurred along with a weak overall economy,
something not present now.
But if rising energy prices
spread into more widespread inflation pressures
and the Fed feels it needs to
raise interest rates more quickly, then
analysts said
housing could be in for a rougher landing.
Those most vulnerable in such a situation
would be homeowners who took advantage of
the growing popularity of various types of new mortgage products
such as interest-only loans.
They allow buyers to pay only interest initially
while charging a lower interest rate
that remains fixed for a certain period,
often the first three years of the loan.
The problem comes when the introductory period ends.
Then holders of these loans are faced with a double-payment shock.
The interest rate they must pay is likely to rise
and they will have to make not only interest payments but also
begin paying back the principal.
Homeowners with already stretched finances
may find themselves unable to make the new monthly payments,
forcing them either to sell their homes or default on their mortgages.
Either development would dump more supply into a slowing market
and thus further depress prices.
But many analysts don't believe that
doomsday scenario will come into play to any significant extent
unless the economy seriously weakens.
They note that
even with the growing popularity of interest-only loans
and various other types of mortgages that feature low down payments,
the number of loans going into delinquency has been falling.
Some see a slowdown in home sales as beneficial
"If the frenzied buying levels off,
the market will become more balanced between supply and demand"
and help to ease price pressures,
said Lawrence Yun, senior economist
at the National Association of Realtors.
"This will certainly not be like the stock market bust of 2000.
We are just going from a rapid pace to a more healthy pace,"
he said.
With home prices in the stratosphere,
many buyers have been forced into more exotic types of mortgages
to be able to afford to buy a home.
Here is some advice from housing experts on what
people should consider in the current environment.
BUY OR NOT:
Some people have hesitated to purchase a home,
especially in the hottest sales areas,
for fear they could buy at the top
only to see home prices start to decline.
Analysts say it is very hard to time the market.
If you need to buy because you are being relocated
and you plan to be in the new home for several years,
the advice is to go ahead and buy.
The chances are that
even if home prices do fall for a year or two,
they will begin rising
and you will recoup your investment when you sell.
REFINANCE:
For people who now have adjustable rate mortgages,
the advice is to consider refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage.
Mortgage rates have been at the lowest levels
in more than four decades for an extended period of time.
The blow to the economy from Hurricane Katrina
and surging energy prices may keep rates low for a while longer.
But the expectation is that rates will eventually start rising again
and could be above 7 percent by the end of 2006.
Moving to a fixed rate would protect against
seeing a sharp jump in a low introductory rate.
If the adjustable rate mortgage is also an interest-only mortgage,
there will be a second payment shock
when the homeowner has to start paying interest
and the principal of the loan.
INVESTORS:
People who have been playing the hot real estate market
by buying homes only to turn around and resell them at a profit
should reconsider that approach.
That strategy could prove dangerous
if, as expected, home sales retreat from their current record highs
and prices stop rising at double-digit rates.
OTHER IDEAS:
People who find they are still priced out of a particular area
might consider moving to a smaller house or farther out.
For people 62 or older and in need of cash,
they might consider taking out a reverse mortgage
that would allow them to borrow against the equity in their home
and never repay the loan as long as they live in the house.
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富比世：油價大泡沫 一年內破滅>>須知二戰至今 還打過韓戰越戰 那時的原油儲備還沒有現在高
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這個說法倒不是假的
理由是美國原油儲備已經是二次大戰以來最高了
須知二戰至今
還打過韓戰越戰
那時的原油儲備還沒有現在高
可以知道炒油是虛的
在我看來是布希家族等石油大亨
藉機拉高出貨
=============================
富比世：油價大泡沫 一年內破滅
http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FINS3/2873035.shtml
■ 編譯范振光／法新社雪梨三十日電
美國出版業大亨富比世卅日預測，
目前的原油天價是市場炒出來的大泡沫，一年內必定破滅。
富比世說，「北美的避險基金幾乎都炒原油期貨。
所以我大膽預測，十二個月內，原油會跌到每桶卅五到四十美元的價位」，
二○○○年科技股崩盤屆時比起來只算「小兒科」。
富比世在他旗下集團主辦的全球企業領袖會議中指出，
油價從三年前的廿五到卅美元飆到現在的價位，
通貨膨脹和中國大陸、印度需求增加只占一小部分因素，其他純屬炒作，
他不認為油價會飆到一百美元。
【2005/08/31 聯合報】
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Greenspan 回家養老吧! 79歲啦! 戀棧什麼呢?
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2005.08.27 工商時報
葛老18年功與過 經濟學家大家談
林秀津/綜合外電報導
距離美國聯準會葛林史班明年一月退休的時間還有五個月，
但他十八年任內的功過成敗已經成為經濟學家討論的焦點。
本週五和週六在美國舉行的一場研討會中，
葛林史班不僅親自出席發表演說，他本人也將成為研討會討論的主題之一。
此外，被外界視為最有可能接任葛林史班職位的三位接班人選
也都會出席這場盛會。
葛老在週五演說中警告，
貿易保護主義抬頭與預算赤字膨脹，已對美國經濟長期前景構成威脅。
堪薩斯聯邦準備銀行本週五、週六將在懷俄明州Jackson Hole
舉行一年一度的經濟研討會。該研討會從一九七八年開始舉辦，
每年都會邀請許多重量級經濟學家和各國央行官員
就一些重大經濟議題進行探討。而今年會議的一大主題就是葛林史班。
在這場標題為「葛林史班時代：經驗傳承、邁向未來」研討會中，
將有五份研究報告發表，其中兩份報告的主題
都是探討葛林史班在過去十八年任期的決策。
這兩份研究報告之一的發表人前聯準會副主席布蘭得表示，
葛林史班明年一月就要退休，可是他不會留下
任何告訴繼位者如何研判經濟情勢、擬定貨幣政策的「操作手冊」，
這次的研討會就是希望開始為葛老留下這樣的歷史紀錄。
除了葛林史班本人外，預定出席這場會議的來賓還包括
歐洲央行總裁特里榭、前美國財政部長魯賓和美國知名貨幣學者。
最引人矚目的是，
哈佛大學教授費得斯坦、
哥倫比亞商學院院長赫伯德 和
白宮經濟顧問理事會主席柏南克等三位葛林史班接班人選
也都會出席這場會議。
但另一位被視為可能後來居上的黑馬人選林賽將不會出席。
葛林史班任內美國經歷有史以來延續最長的經濟擴張時期，
而且他也在九一一事件、亞洲金融風暴等危機時期
以冷靜的決策帶領美國經濟度過這些挑戰。
但葛林史班最受批評者質疑的是，由於Fed未在第一時間緊縮貨幣，
才會導致九○年代美國形成資產泡沫，
以至於本世紀開始泡沫破滅造成經濟重大衝擊。
葛林史班的功過尚待時間證明，
但就在他即將退休之際，美國經濟正面臨一些不可輕視的經濟風險，
例如高油價、房市泡沫和長期利率偏低。
聯準會從去年六月開始升息，
至今十度升息的行動似乎還無法完全移除這些風險。
"It's when times are tough, unusual, when
there is no manual you can pick up to tell you what to do
and you have to figure it out on the fly.
AP
Crisis Management Is Greenspan's Specialty
Saturday August 27, 2:38 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Crisis Management
a Hallmark of Alan Greenspan's Tenure at the Federal Reserve
JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) --
One of the first things Alan Greenspan did
when he took leadership of the Federal Reserve
was put together a plan to follow in the event of a market emergency.
Just two months into the job, he needed it.
The stock market dropped 508 points on Oct. 19, 1987,
the biggest one-day loss since the Great Depression,
sending shock waves through financial markets at home and abroad.
Greenspan quickly reassured Wall Street and Main Street that
the central bank would supply all the credit necessary
to keep the nation's financial system functioning.
To this day, Fed watchers give Greenspan high marks
for his successful handling of "Black Monday"
and say it highlights one of his finest skills.
"Crisis management
has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage,"
said Lyle Gramley, a former member of the Fed board.
Greenspan has been tested through other trying economic times,
including a worldwide financial crisis
prompted by Asian currency woes in 1997;
two recessions, one in 1990-1991 and another in 2001;
the bursting of the stock market bubble in 2000 that
wiped out trillions of dollars in investor wealth;
and the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
With Greenspan, 79, expected to retire early next year,
economists and other Fed watchers are debating
what defined the Greenspan era at the central bank
and what his legacy will be.
That was a centerpiece topic of discussion
at a two-day conference on economic policy s
ponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
in this resort community.
"While there are some negatives in the record,
when the score is toted up,
we think he has a legitimate claim
to being the greatest central banker who ever lived.
His performance as chairman of the Fed has been impressive,"
Princeton University professors Alan Blinder and Ricardo Reis
wrote in a paper they presented at the conference.
Blinder served with Greenspan on the Federal Reserve Board.
The Fed determines interest rate policies that
affect any person or business that borrows money.
By virtue of his position and ability to influence the economy,
Greenspan is seen by many
as the second most powerful person in the country.
On his watch,
the U.S. economy grew from March 1991 to March 2001,
the longest continuous expansion in history.
The two recessions during his tenure were mild.
"Greenspan has made spectacular calls
about how the economy works,"
said R. Glenn Hubbard,
professor at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business.
He is frequently mentioned as a possible successor to Greenspan.
Former Fed officials say that during normal economic times
Greenspan can shape monetary policy with textbook like precision.
But where he really excels, they say,
is in times of crisis or unusual economic circumstances,
where his flexibility, preparedness, attention
to detail and judgment serves him well.
"It's when times are tough, unusual, when
there is no manual you can pick up to tell you what to do
and you have to figure it out on the fly.
That's when the test comes.
Greenspan distinguishes himself in exceptional times.
He is a hall of famer," said Laurence Meyer,
who served with Greenspan on the Fed.
One of those distinguishing times was during the late 1990s,
Meyer and others said.
Greenspan believed a key ingredient to the economy's health --
productivity -- was accelerating,
even when official statistics said otherwise.
The Fed chief's belief meant he could
give the economy more room to run and thus
keep interest rates low without worrying about triggering inflation.
The economy boomed,
bearing out Greenspan's assertion about productivity.
Greenspan's "scrutiny of details in the data,
is of course, legendary.
But his flexibility, his unwillingness to get stuck in
a doctrinal straitjacket that becomes dysfunctional,
may be his greatest strength,"
Blinder and Reis wrote.
One of the few criticisms of Greenspan's tenure is
the Fed's handling of monetary policy
during the high-flying stock market of the late 1990s.
Critics contend the Fed should have started to raise interest rates
earlier and more aggressively than it did
to deflate the stock price bubble.
The bubble started to pop in 2000 and in March 2001
the economy slipped into a mild recession.
Greenspan has said repeatedly that
if the Fed tried to burst the stock bubble,
interest rates would have had to be ratcheted up so high that
the result would have been a more severe recession.
The Fed also had other forces to contend with
at the time of the stock market boom:
the Asian currency crisis began to unfold in 1997
and eventually spread to other parts of the globe.
That set the stage for the Fed to cut rates in 1998
to prevent the turmoil from hurting the U.S. economy.
Some Fed watchers also knock Greenspan a bit
for talking about all kinds of things --
energy, education, taxes, Social Security --
outside the realm of monetary policy
while expecting Congress and the White House
not to interfere with the Fed's interest-rate decisions.
Critics worry that Fed chiefs wading into politically charged debates
could eventually threaten the board's independence.
Still, Greenspan's "saxophone played more right notes than wrong"
at the Fed,
Carnegie-Mellon University professor Allan Meltzer said.
An aspiring musician in his younger days,
Greenspan played in a dance band.
The famously opaque Greenspan is given credit
for moving the Fed toward greater openness,
though it's still one of the most mysterious Washington institutions.
A breakthrough came in 1994 when the board began to state
when it was changing a key interest rate.
Before that, Fed watchers had to monitor the markets
to divine whether the central bank changed interest rates.
Eventually, the Fed began to release statements
after each of its eight regularly scheduled meetings a year
and did so even when rates held steady.
And, this year the Fed started speeding up the release of minutes
from those meetings.
=========================================
AP
Fed Member Promotes Diversification
Saturday August 27, 10:28 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Member Donald Kohn Says
Diversification Has Helped U.S. Economy in Troubled Times
JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) --
Greater diversification in the financial sector over the years
has helped the United States weather troubled economic times,
a Federal Reserve Board member said Saturday.
Banks and other financial institutions
have become better at diversifying risks,
giving borrowers a greater variety of lenders to tap for funds,
board member Donald Kohn said.
These developments have made the nation's financial system
more resilient and flexible and thus
better able to withstand financial shocks,
he said in remarks to an economic conference sponsored
by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
"As a consequence of greater diversification of risks and of sources of funds,
problems in the financial sector are less likely
to intensify shocks hitting the economy and financial market,"
Kohn said.
When the stock market bubble began to burst in 2000,
wiping out trillions of dollars in paper wealth,
and the 2001 recession followed,
credit wasn't cut off and borrowers had alternative sources of funds,
Kohn said.
Still, investors both on Wall Street and Main Street
should never become so complacent that
they discount possible risks, he said.
And, he added, they shouldn't depend on the Federal Reserve
to come to their rescue during troubled times.
"People may well perceive the economy as more stable than it is
or central banks with greater power than we have to smooth the economy
or to foresee our own actions," Kohn said.
Fed policy-makers also can remind people of risks that may be lurking,
he said.
"Clearly, reminders to the public
of the inherent uncertainty in economic developments
and policy responses
are appropriate and should have some effect," he said.
Kohn's name has come up as a possible successor
to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan,
who is expected to step down on Jan. 31.
============================================
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050827/greenspan.html?.v=6
AP
Greenspan Confident About His Successor
Saturday August 27, 3:33 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Greenspan Expresses Confidence About His Successor,
Renews Warning About Hot Housing Market
JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) --
Alan Greenspan,
whose 18-year run at the Federal Reserve closes next year,
expressed confidence his successor
as chairman of the central bank
can handle any economic challenge.
He also renewed a warning on Saturday
about the sizzling housing market,
saying home prices may fall, slowing consumer spending,
a chief ingredient for the economy's good health.
Greenspan's remarks wrapped up a two-day conference,
sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,
on the "Greenspan Era."
The 79-year-old Fed chief expects to step down in five months,
giving President Bush time to consider potential nominees.
Looking ahead, Greenspan predicted the Fed
"will almost surely face as many uncertainties over the next 18 years
as it has over the past 18."
Technology continues to bring rapid change and uncertainty
to the marketplace, he said.
The aging U.S. population and long-term federal budget deficits,
if left unchecked, are concerns.
"Surely difficult challenges lie ahead for the Fed,
some undoubtedly of our own making,
and others that will be thrust on us by market or other forces,"
Greenspan said.
Whatever may come, he said
he had "little doubt that my successors, and theirs,
will continue to sustain the leadership of the American financial system
in an ever-widening global economy."
Drawing frequent mentions for Greenspan's job are:
--Martin Feldstein.
An economics professor at Harvard University and
president of the National Bureau of Economic Research,
he advised Bush when the Texas governor ran for president in 2000.
--R. Glenn Hubbard.
Dean of Columbia University's graduate school of business and
an economics professor,
he was Bush's chief economic adviser from 2001 to 2003.
--Ben Bernanke:
A former Fed board member,
he recently became Bush's top economist.
Also discussed for a post-Greenspan era are
Donald Kohn,
a member of the Fed board;
Roger Ferguson,
vice chairman of the Fed board;
John Taylor,
an economics professor at Stanford University; and
Larry Lindsey,
former economic adviser to Bush and ex-member of the Fed.
All but Lindsey attended the economic conference, which
served as a goodbye salute to Greenspan.
"It was a toast, not a roast,"
Laurence Meyer, a former Fed member who served with Greenspan,
said in an interview.
"More than anything, the new chairman will need to be able to
make decisions on the fly and exercise good judgment,"
something for which Greenspan was hailed, Meyer said.
The housing market, not Fed succession,
was on Greenspan's mind Saturday.
"The housing boom will inevitably simmer down,"
Greenspan said.
"As part of that process,
house turnover will decline from currently historic levels,
while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease."
A day earlier, he cautioned the public against thinking
the value of homes and other investments will only go higher.
"History has not dealt kindly" with that kind of optimism,
he said.
If house prices fell suddenly or if interest rates rose quickly,
it could clobber homeowners and lenders.
Rising prices have helped make many people feel wealthier
and thus more inclined to spend.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly
two-thirds of all economic activity.
Greenspan said
people taking cash out of their homes through refinancing,
selling or other financial arrangements will ease along with
"some of the strength" in consumer spending.
The estimates of how much consumer spending will ease differ widely,
he said.
An end to the housing boom and
a moderation in consumer spending,
however, could have a silver lining, Greenspan said.
It could lead to a boost in the personal savings rate,
now dismally low, and could curb the public's insatiable appetite
for foreign-made goods,
helping to narrow the country's trade deficit, he said.
The broadest measure of trade,
called the current account deficit,
reached a record $668 billion last year.
Looking back at his tenure, Greenspan said
he would miss the lively debates on economic topics
with his Fed colleagues.
Debates on the merits of central banks
to use interest rates to prick perceived price bubbles
in stocks, houses or other financial assets
may intensify in the years ahead,
he said.
"But, given our current state of knowledge,
I find it difficult
to envision central banks successfully targeting asset prices
any time soon,"
Greenspan said.
When Greenspan finished speaking,
he received a standing ovation from the economists, central bankers,
academics and other economic elite.
"It's been a wonderful pleasure ... I wish you all well,"
the Fed chief said.
A message
written by Greenspan's legendary cigar-smoking predecessor,
Paul Volcker, was read aloud.
He said Greenspan had chalked up "quite a record"
and told him,
"There are still mountains to be climbed."
本文於 修改第 3 次
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Greenspan Worries About Economic Health
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從下列新聞我所確定的是
Greenspan已經知道cathy20048所發明的方程式
[the Relative EPS Equation]的厲害了
請見
>>If you do not invest any, just ignore this.
>>7/21 盤中分析 相信有許多人看不懂今天的盤勢
此二文均在
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1317233&tpno=0&raid=1338855&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep1338855
他知道這個方程式的厲害
將把美國
"從現在的第一經濟強國 打成第三世界國家"
(這句話是極有可能接任FED的美國極右保守主義的某某人所說)
任何人 不懂得 不深思 不理會 [the Relative EPS Equation]
就準備走向破產衰亡
[the Relative EPS Equation]是一個陰魂不散的連環套
中國將因此取代美國
走向世界第一強國
而Greenspan對此的理解
個人認為是
來自一個極聰明的耶魯大學教授
泡沫先生席勒對房市的提醒
[附於本文下方]
席勒依據
個人寄給耶魯大學經濟系的[the Relative EPS Equation]
他的判斷是
美國社會大眾一旦普遍得知此方程式
將會出現暴量暴價買進傳產股
理由是
經過[the Relative EPS Equation]的衡量
傳產股相形之下
比起投資銀行定存或是公司債或是國庫券(公債)
要好上幾十倍到幾百倍
因而使得景氣出現急速極度過熱
逼迫FED連續大幅加碼升息以抑制過熱
可是呢
即使調高500%
也將無法有效抑制這一熱潮
可是這樣一來
卻使得依賴低利率買進自用住宅的人們
承受不了一再高漲的房貸高利率
而面臨破產
所以[房市會完蛋]
就是泡沫先生席勒的結論
同時美國國庫券(公債)會面臨沒有人要的窘境
請看此圖:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
值得注意的是這幾天
尤其是當九月FED又要升息
按理說是應該預期上漲
可是十年期國庫券卻是在這幾天屢創新低
連反彈都沒有
這是因為已經有多國政府
正在從美國國庫券這項投資上陸續撤資
主要以歐洲各國為主
前述這個所謂[一再高漲的房貸高利率]
若以一個粗略的數字來說
個人估計房貸將達到目前
信用卡現金卡的18%-20%利率
而屆時信用卡現金卡的利率
個人估計未來將出現在35%-45%的範圍內
這不是危言聳聽
cathy20048說過要教訓台灣央行的
為了要教訓台灣央行
只好讓全世界的央行都跟著倒楣
因為cathy20048
實在想不出來如何只教訓台灣央行
而不會讓全世界的央行跟著倒楣
所以就乾脆一起連坐處分
有關[cathy20048說過要教訓台灣央行]
請見前文(結尾處)
>>應該感謝[反分裂法]的地方是...
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=319343&tpno=1&no=3446&cate_no=0
另外有關下列英文新聞
Greenspan用字稍深
可以參見
英文字典網址:
http://chinese.dictionary.yahoo.com/dict?s=aftermath
======================================
AP
Greenspan Worries About Economic Health
Friday August 26, 10:08 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan Voices Concerns
About Long-Term Health of U.S. Economy
JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) --
Creeping trade protectionism and bloated budget deficits
pose a risk to the United States' long-term economic vitality,
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Friday.
"Developing protectionism regarding trade and
our reluctance to place fiscal policy on a more sustainable path
are threatening what may well be our most valued policy asset:
the increased flexibility of our economy, which
has fostered our extraordinary resilience to shocks,"
the Fed chief said in a speech to an economic conference here,
sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Maintaining economic flexibility is especially important, Greenspan said,
to deal with what he called some of America's current economic imbalances:
the swollen current account trade deficit, which
surged to a record $668 billion last year, and the housing boom.
Greenspan also worried in his speech about what will occur
with the ending of the recent sustained period of low interest rates and
low risks for investors.
"History has not dealt kindly
with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums,"
he said in his prepared remarks.
Greenspan's speech was to a conference
titled "The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future."
The Fed chief, who has steered the world's largest economy
through both smooth and choppy economic waters for 18 years,
plans to step down in just five months.
Greenspan's appearance at the annual Fed conference, which
is attended by other Fed policy-makers, economists, academics
and central bank officials from around the world,
is expected to be his last as Fed chairman.
Looking back over his tenure, Greenspan said that
a key hallmark of his approach to monetary policy-making
has been preparing for a wide spectrum of economic outcomes:
from the most likely to the most unlikely.
The Fed's worry in the summer of 2003
about the remote threat of deflation --
a widespread decline in prices that can severely harm the economy --
prompted the Fed to keep cutting short-term interest rates,
Greenspan noted.
"Given the potentially severe consequences of deflation,
the expected benefits of the unusual policy action
were judged to outweigh its expected costs,"
he said.
=========================================
2005.08.22 工商時報
泡沫先生席勒：美房市熱潮已成另一泡沫
林國賓/綜合外電報導
紐約時報周日報導，素有「泡沫先生」之稱的耶魯大學經濟學家席勒
再度開口示警，直說美國房市已是另一個泡沫，並預告泡沫將以災難收場。
席勒不是別人，他正是當年率先喊出美股股價已達非理性水準，
導致市場崩盤的耶魯大學經濟學家。
一九九六年十二月的某天，席勒受邀出席聯準會的一場午宴，
做東的是聯準會主席葛林史班，
當時鼎鼎大名的華爾街多頭總司令柯恩女士也是座上嘉賓。
席間，坐在葛老右側的席勒以中西部的口音，輕聲的詢問葛林史班說，
Fed主席上次公開向民眾警告股市已出現泡沫不知是何時？
葛老只聽不答，席勒返家時心想他的看法與葛老已愈來愈沒交集。
孰料，三天後席勒在開車途中，
經由廣播聽到葛老公開發表「非理性繁榮」的談話。
如今，距當年他與葛老聚餐已隔九年，
「泡沫先生」再度發出泡沫的警告，這一次不是股市，而是房市。
不論是在演講的場合、接受電視及廣播專訪，
還是在其二○○○年預言書「非理性繁榮」的再版書中，他均提到，
房市熱潮已成為另一個泡沫，同時如以往所有的房市多頭一樣，
註定會以災難收場。
席勒並預告，美國房價到下一代經通膨調整後會下跌四○％，
泡沫的結束也可能在某個時間導致經濟陷入衰退。
此語一出，現年五十九歲、有娃娃臉的席勒，
已成為美國房地產業聞之色變的公敵。
與許多華爾街經濟學家的看法一樣，房地產業的主管都說，
在低利率及人口成長的有利條件帶動下，房價將會持續上揚。
上周一全美房地產經紀協會發布報告指出，
第二季中位數房價走高至二○八五○○美元，較去年同期上漲一四％。
建設公司Toll Brothers執行長托爾卻反駁指出：
「席勒是在預測說高山會沉入海底，他根本是在做秀，自我推銷。」
=======================================
以下是反論
2005.08.22 工商時報
華爾街日報：美房市不可能急速崩盤
林國賓/綜合外電報導
美國房市泡沫近來再度成為各界關注的焦點，
大家比較關心的是，一旦泡沫破滅，房市將以何種型態回檔。
華爾街日報報導指出，房市不太可能出現價格重挫的急速崩盤走勢，
比較可能呈現量縮價跌的緩步回檔。
哈佛大學房市研究聯合中心資深學者亞普加對此表示：
「我認為美國房市將不會出現重大的戲劇性崩盤狀況。」
不像股價，
房市是不可能在幾天內崩盤，投資人是可以立即的殺出手中股票，
但若要出售一間房子，脫手時間往往需要好幾個月。
以過去像加州、新英格蘭及其他地區的房市泡沫破滅為例，
許多屋主在賣不到他們所認為的合理價格時，
他們乾脆退出買賣市場，也不願低價出售手中房產，市場交易量因此急縮，
但價格僅會緩步下跌，整個時程歷時好幾年。
然而，房市多頭一旦結束，對於許多人來說都將造成傷害，
而最可能受到衝擊的人包括：
因失業或調職而必需在房價疲軟時出脫房產的人；
那些有高額房貸、甚少或沒有住宅淨值的人；
以及那些原本寄望住宅淨值大幅上漲，以便彌補退休儲蓄不足的人。
房市多頭這幾年一直是美國經濟的巨大支柱，
不但刺激營建活動、增加數百萬家庭的淨資產，
同時因為房價上漲，美國民眾得以增加借貸進行消費。
Economy.com預測公司首席經濟學家桑迪指出，
過去兩年來美國經濟一共創造四百萬個就業機會，
其中有近四成是房市多頭所貢獻。
經濟學家對房市不景氣對經濟可能造成的衝擊程度看法分歧，
桑迪希望，經濟其他部門的強勁就業成長
能填補房市不景氣所產生的就業缺口，
不過他警告，若房價再持續飆漲一、二年，
未來房市泡沫破滅對經濟構成的風險只會增不會減。
========================================
後記
上述該英文新聞當天 2005/08/19
因為Greenspan語焉不詳
而導致美國股市表現
出現了錯誤的解讀
這意味的是
Greenspan與耶魯大學教授泡沫先生席勒
這樣的才智出眾之輩
畢竟是寥若辰星的極少數
所以市場還會有相當時期的混遯期
大家都搞不清楚
大家都在猜
又因為世界各國股市以美國三大股市馬首是瞻
所以目前來看
只有大陸股市以及日本股市
出現比較睿智的走勢
其他各國包括歐陸各國股市
都還是一副渾沌不明的模樣
當然另一方面
也是因為絕大多數的投資者
都還不知道[the Relative EPS Equation]
所以美國房市在短期間的確還不會出現
耶魯大學教授泡沫先生席勒所謂的
房市泡沫化的危機
但是反過來說
一旦美國大眾普遍了解到這個問題的嚴重性
房市就會出現急殺崩跌
包括世界各國政府與私人資本
都會逃出美國債市
其所產生的影響
先是美國股市莫名其妙大崩盤
再來是美國政府還不起公債
而導致美國政府破產
兵敗山倒
會不會造成全球性的經濟大恐慌
可以拭目以待
個人認為是在這未來十年內出現
影響之大將擴及到本世紀末葉
甚至是兩百年以上
哪天一旦出現
網友就知道誰始作俑者
誰可以笑傲江湖了
本文於 修改第 2 次
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