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國際股市與國際經濟[之一]>why外資大買日股 ?
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瀏覽24,705 ｜回應47｜推薦0 |
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國際股市與國際經濟[之一]>why外資大買日股 ?
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1348504&tpno=1&no=3446&cate_no=0
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備註：
因為全球太多人想要知道我把前文乙篇 傳給了誰
>> Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1327310&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
所以聯合報將本網棧右上方的尋找功能取消
造成許多不便 也包括我本人在內
職是之故
我目前將各欄首文編入
>>cathy20048 所著各文總目錄
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=2349898&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
日後還會進行分類與子目錄的建立
以及關鍵字 乃至簡介說明
一時之間還作不完
不方便在所難免
==============================
以下新聞配合下址日經225的半年走勢圖來看
印象會比較清楚
圖中紅線是200日均線 相當於年線
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EN225&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=,e200&a=vm&c=
評述在結尾處
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2005.08.19 中國時報
日股「黎明將至」 外資大買
林秀津/綜合外電報導
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,110507+112005081900288,00.html
曾讓許多投資人柔腸寸斷的日本股市
近期透露出「黎明將至」的訊號。
許多看好日本經濟前景的外資近來大手筆買超，
分析師紛紛表示近期日股的漲勢預示中長期多頭走勢即將展開，
也有人大膽預言日股年底將站上一萬三千點。
在外資力捧下，週四日經指數在亞洲股市普遍下跌中表現一枝獨秀，
上揚○．三％，指數已逼近四年最高。
日本十五家民間調查機構
週三彙整二○○五年度及二○○六年度日本經濟預測指出，
扣除掉物價變動之後，
二○○五年度的國內生產毛額（GDP）實質成長率平均為一．九％。
這些調查機構預測今年設備投資、個人消費將趨堅挺，
並有十三家機構向上修正五月時所做的預測值。
在油價不斷攀升可能侵蝕企業獲利的疑慮下，
週四亞洲股市普遍下跌，
香港、台灣、南韓、澳洲等地股市
分別出現介於○．五％到一．八％之間的跌幅。
但在亞股普遍走跌聲中，近來氣勢頗旺的日股
卻仍逆勢上漲三四點，指數收在一二三○七．三七點。
除了本地投資人外，近期推升日股持續上揚的關鍵力量來自外資。
根據日本政府公布的最新數據，
上週外資對日股買超七千二百一十九億日圓，
為三月中旬以來最高單週買超金額，
該週同時也是外資連續第九週買超日股。
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為何外資敢這麼大手筆買進日股?
使得日股漲勢驚人?
就是因為日股的獲利率經過衡量之後
外資發覺日股物美價廉
而衡量的基準在哪裡呢?
理由就是[Relative EPS]的觀念
個人予以推廣到全世界
請詳見
>>If you do not invest any, just ignore this.
>> 7/21 盤中分析 相信有許多人看不懂今天的盤勢
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1317233&tpno=0&raid=1338855&no=3446&t=t&cate_no=0#rep1338855
本文於 修改第 1 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[28] 美國央行(聯準會)是否降息?
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國際股市與國際經濟[28] 美國央行(聯準會)是否降息?
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1348504&tpno=0&raid=2389264&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep2389264
美國央行(聯準會)是否降息?
我不知道 Bernanke 是否可以抵禦得住政治壓力
但就實際面而言
美國沒有降息的必要
在此我特別要強調[降息對通膨的暗示效果]
(a dominant suggestion to inflation)
以下我摘錄了三則新聞
一是說 Bernanke 不同於 Greenspan 的滑頭
這則新聞在我看來是比較中肯的
就短期(Bernanke 的生命期間)而言
Bernanke 將面對許多來自炒作股市的資產階級的橫加污蔑
儘管這段時間 Bernanke 表現出大義凜然的正直態度
但我並不知道 Bernanke 是否繼續抵擋的住
即使 Bernanke 繼續抵擋的住
也會面臨政治壓力而有下台的危機
所幸下一任總統 Hilary Clinton 也是正直之輩
或許可以讓 Bernanke 繼續堅持穩定的貨幣政策
所以就長期而言 Bernanke 將名留青史
二是炒股的美國資本家加重國際策略和投資集團 (ISI)董事長
海曼（Edward Hyman Hyman）的權威
來遂行其對聯準會的壓力
生意經 不用談
三是美第二季GDP 向上修正至4％
這才是重點 美國景氣真的上揚了
故而若降息的結果
就是我上文所言[降息對通膨的暗示效果]
會造成美國一般老百姓生活難過的通膨
固然昨(8/30) 的請領失業補助增加
但是那是屬於短期的 fictional unemployment
目前因我前文的影響
Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.
全世界的大企業都在精簡人事
以節流方式讓 EPS 能夠維持高檔
如此才能夠使股價維持在高檔 造成[敵意併購]者的壓力
反過來說
所有中小企業與股票未上市的大企業都在增募新血
情況甚至到令人詫異的地步
前幾天有則新聞
美國中西部已經缺工缺到找不到人
人事主管必須遠赴(((一千多哩之外各州)))去募集!
一方面是上市大企業的精簡人事
一方面是中小企業都在增募新血
這種吊詭的情形要如何解釋呢?
這樣說吧!
上市大企業其實都是程度不同的控股公司
金融性質往往強過本業經營
真正作為本業的生產部門多半移交中小企業代工(OEM, ODM)
固而當我的前文造成炒作金融商品 特指股票
無法獲得昔日的豐厚利潤時
精簡人事所做的只是節流
至於開源
那麼唯有強化本業經營 多加僱用勞動要素了
更早的一則新聞指出大陸將會在未來幾三四年内
面對勞工短缺的大問題
印度則稍久 但也只是六七年内就會發生的事
我當初看了這兩則新聞非常高興
因為唯有中國印度這兩個人口最多的國家都出現勞工短缺的大問題
非洲的苦難才有可能結束
就以目前而言
非洲正一日千里 飛快地脫貧
說到這裡
各位可以瞭解為何大陸總理溫家寶
為何引劉禹錫的詩句 以詩中[病樹][沉舟]
為曾大川造就舉世富足 自己卻三餐不繼的可嘆
感到遺憾萬分了吧!
----------------------------------------------------------
後記\
Bernanke 除了就產業面的考慮之外
其實他還面對美國國內資本市場的國際個性
降息代表資本獲利的減少
外國資本就會另尋出路
用腳投票 造成美國的資本存量下降
當這樣的事給一般美國百姓知道的話
這種恐慌的政治效應
諒誰也吃不消
所以最好是把利率擺著不動
==================================
工商時報2007.08.31
柏南克跳脫葛老施政框架
【李鐏龍/綜合外電報導】
美國聯準會（Fed）主席柏南克處理他上任後第一次金融危機的手法，特別是迄仍未調降最具指標性的聯邦基金利率，顯示他已經跳脫前任者葛林史班的施政框架，也意味投資人可能得調整他們該如何預期柏氏主導下的聯準會運作模式。柏氏周五將在於懷俄明州風景勝地傑克遜洞穴（Jackson Hole）舉行的聯準會年度論壇會議上發表演說，是否進一步透露出他與葛老不同調，備受關注。
外界解讀，柏南克試圖打破聯準會每逢金融危機必會出手援救的窠臼，市場的降息預期心理隨之下降。加上最近一周首度申請失業救濟的人數不降反升，增加九千人，美股周四早盤走低。
華爾街日報周四報導，柏氏若如市場預期，終究還是調降聯邦基金利率，則代表他和葛老間之間的反差沒有那麼大。而除了周五外，柏氏九月十一日將在德國柏林發表談話，距離聯準會下次例行決策會議僅有一周，因此內容也將成為注目焦點。
美國紐約州參議員休姆（Charles Schumer）周三公布柏南克寫給他的信函，信中柏氏重申將盡力救援美國經濟，雖了無新意，但交易商認為還是促成美股大漲，道瓊工指彈升一．九％，顯示市場期待「葛規柏隨」。
葛老任內兩度遭遇重大金融危機，分別是一九八七年的美股崩跌，及一九九八年導致美國長期資本管理 公司近乎破產的信用緊縮。前者葛老係透過公開市場操作，導引聯邦基金利率劇降，後者他則三度調降聯邦基利各一碼，才都安然過關。
兩項任務分開操作
後者與當前美國次貸風暴引發的信用緊縮情況極為相似，但柏氏除挹注流動性外，僅以調降重貼現率兩碼因應，聯邦基金利率不動如山，由而被解讀為他已跳脫葛老框架。
聯準會傳統上有兩大任務：維持金融穩定，控制通膨並防範陷入衰退。葛老時，視這兩項任務幾乎密不可分，因此以調降指標短率一箭雙鵰。柏氏則將這兩項任務分開操作，因此調降重貼現率，旨在讓信用市場恢復正常運作，並非以刺激成長為主。
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工商時報2007.08.31
被譽為27年來最佳經濟學家 海曼：聯準會將降息到４％
【蕭美惠/綜合外電報導】
彭博社周四報導，國際策略和投資集團 (ISI)董事長海曼（Edward Hyman Hyman）指出，美國經濟成長減緩將壓制通膨，聯準會可能會展開連番降息，調降指標利率至四％。
截至二○○六年六月，聯準會已連續升息兩年。美國房市歷經十六年來最嚴重景氣低迷正削弱經濟增長。ISI調查房地產業發現，情況「頗為糟糕」，海曼說， 「是我們歷來遇過最差的評等之一。」
海曼在紐約受訪時指出，「Fed決策官員將開始逐步降息，每次決策會議都會降息○．二五個百分點。我認為此舉將有助經濟增長，避免陷入衰退。」
被「機構投資人」雜誌評為二十七年來最佳經濟學家殊榮的海曼預期，「明年經濟好轉」，股市與債券殖利率看漲。他又說，成長趨緩將讓聯準會暫時不再擔心通膨。
全球信貸市場急凍，聯準會八月十七日降低貼現率。交易員認定，聯準會在九月十八日會議上會降低目前為五．二五％的聯邦基金利率。
海曼說，隨著貨幣政策放寬，「歷史告訴我股市應該一路走高。」他又說，聯準會以往的升息，在引導經濟走緩及壓制通膨上「漂亮出擊」。「世人得給予肯定，我若幫聯準會打分數，會給它Ａ。」海曼指出，經濟反映降息需要一段時間，他預估下半年成長年率最低將降至一％或一．五％，明年可望回升。他指出，「我不認為經濟將陷入衰退。」不過，以史為鑑，他指出，房市低迷不振恐再持續三年之久，次級房貸問題將揮之不去。
他說，情況會惡化。降息初期難以完全舒緩次級房貸危機的衝擊。就業成長可能進一步下降，提供另一個引導聯準會降息及持續放鬆銀根的「指標」。
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工商時報2007.08.31
美第二季GDP 向上修正至4％
【劉聖芬/綜合外電報導】
由於企業支出與出口比原先預期得好，美國官方於周四將第二季國內生產毛額(GDP)成長年率向上修正至四．○％，雖是自去年第一季以來的最高成長率，但經濟學家擔心此成長動力恐後繼無力。
美國商務部將第二季GDP成長年率，從一個月前預估的三．四％，向上修正至四．○％。此數字符合華爾街的預期，且大符超越第一季GDP僅成長○．六％的疲弱表現。
然而，美國次級房貸市場的違約率攀升所引發的信用緊縮危機，造成全球金融市場動盪，促使經濟學家調降其對未來幾季美國經濟成長率的預測。
就第二季的經濟數據而言，看不出有通貨膨脹升高的壓力。扣除食品與能源項目的個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數於第二季小幅升高一．三％，不但低於原先預期的升高一．四％，還遠低於第一季的二．四％升幅，而且還是該指數自二○○三年第二季揚升一．三％以來的最低升幅。
根據商務部的數據，美國企業獲利於第二季提高，稅後獲利繼第一季增加一．五％後，於第二季增加五．四％至一．一五四兆美元。若與去年同期相較，第二季企業獲利成長三．五％。
商務部並指出，美國企業於第二季增加庫存五十四億美元，為該季GDP成長率貢獻○．二一個百分點。商務部原先預估第二季庫存增加三十六億美元，為GDP貢獻○．一五個百分點。而第一季的企業庫存增加一億美元。
在出口方面，美國第二季出口金額成長七．六％，而非原先預估的六．四％；進口金額減少三．二％而非二．六％。
美國企業增加支出情形也較先前預期為佳。第二季企業增加增加一一．一％，而非原先預期的增加八．一％。企業支出於第一季僅增加二．一％。
本文於 修改第 5 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[27] AP: Federal Minimum Wage Rising This Week
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國際股市與國際經濟[27] AP: Federal Minimum Wage Rising This Week
由於我前文 以前勞委會主委李應元為收件人的一封公開信
使得時薪制員工領到95元
我所推動的低薪者加薪運動
其經濟學的基礎就是 MPC (窮人的邊際消費傾向較高)
如此一來 經濟才能夠得到支撐 不虞垮掉
固然 若干混蛋的資產階級
有意跟進油價 全面漲價
但是我去高雄台北兩地看了市況
絕大多數的商家都在觀望 鮮少有調整價錢
這會使得誰調價 誰的業績就會大幅滑落
所以就以計程車而言
許多駕駛其實是反對加成 理由是:
現在都攬不到客人了 何況加成?
所以供給與需求曲線的彈性問題已經跑出來了
以上這已經偏離主題
我只是要說
低薪者加薪之同時
必須嚴密監控物價
尤其是包含油價與食品等民生消費品的價格
這部份行政院失職
物價督導會報在哪裡?
行政院不會去做這檔子事
理由是民主的代價
要籌措選舉經費
只得讓大小金主撈
這是資產階級民主的宿命
以下這則美聯社新聞才是正題
也就是寫給李應元的那封信 廣為散發之後的迴響
MPC 讓美國決定調高低收入者的薪水
我很高興我能夠幫助美國的窮人
這是任何一個修大乗菩薩行的行者
都會[同體大悲]之處
我要藉此告訴所有佛教信眾
[不離大眾]不是與雜眾廝混
[不離大眾]是以我這樣的方式 救渡眾生 做無量施
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AP
Federal Minimum Wage Rising This Week
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070721/minimum_wage.html?.v=4
Saturday July 21, 4:21 pm ET
By Jesse J. Holland, AP Labor Writer
Upcoming Minimum Wage Increase Will Give Boost to Some of Nation's Poorest Workers
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fast-food waitress Fawn Townsend of Raleigh, N.C., knows exactly what she is going to do if her salary goes up with Tuesday's increase in the federal minimum wage: start saving for a car so she can find a second job to make ends meet.
ADVERTISEMENT
"My goal personally is to get a vehicle so I can independently go back and forth to work and maybe pick up extra work so I can have that extra income, because minimum wage is not cutting it," said Townsend, who is 24 and single.
"Being a single person, you can't pay all your bills with one minimum wage job."
Many lawmakers, along with advocates for low-wage workers, are celebrating the first increase in the federal minimum wage in a decade. Yet many acknowledge that raising it from $5.15 an hour to $5.85 will provide only meager help for some of the lowest paid workers.
About 1.7 million people made $5.15 or less in 2006, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"The reality for a minimum wage worker is that every penny makes a difference because low-wage workers make the choice between putting food on the table and paying for electricity or buying clothes for their children," said Beth Shulman, former vice president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union.
"Saying that, it's clear going up to $5.85 is not enough to really make sure that people really can afford the things that all families need," said Shulman, author of "The Betrayal of Work: How Low-Wage Jobs Fail 30 Million Americans."
Minimum wage workers will get an additional 70-cent boost each summer for the next two years, ending in 2009 at $7.25 an hour. That comes to just above $15,000 yearly before taxes for a 52-week work year.
Now, someone in such a job and earning $5.85 an hour would bring home $12,168 a year before taxes. The federal poverty level for singles is $10,210, couples is $13,690 and $17,170 for families of three.
"In the wealthiest country in the history of the world, it is an outrage that anyone who works full time would still wind up in poverty," said Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee. "Everyone who puts in an honest day's work should receive a fair day's pay."
Poverty and the minimum wage are becoming a major issue in the Democratic presidential race. John Edwards and Barack Obama are emphasizing raising the minimum wage during their tours of impoverished areas.
Edwards, who said he wants to eliminate poverty within a generation, favors raising the minimum wage to $9.50. Obama is advocating a "living wage" that would go up as inflation rises and he has promised to eliminate the phrase "working poor."
More than two dozen states and the District of Columbia already have minimum wages higher than the federal one. Even in those states, an increase in the federal minimum wage probably will have a ripple effect, increasing the salaries of Townsend and others.
North Carolina raised its minimum wage from $5.15 to $6.15 in January.
"It's a long overdue first step," said Cindia Cameron, the national organizing director of 9to5, the National Association of Working Women. Minimum wage workers typically are young, single and female and are often black or Hispanic.
Even then when the full increase is enacted, minimum wage workers will be just scraping by. "It's not enough money to meet your basic needs, I'm talking about your rent, your gas, and gas to get back and forth to work," said Sonya Murphy, head organizer of the Mississippi Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or ACORN.
But at the same time, employers who pay many of these low-wage workers say increasing the minimum wage only means they have to raise the prices of the products, cut back on employees' hours or let some workers go.
"When you go into the grocery story now, you may be checking your own groceries, you may be bagging your own groceries," said Jill Jenkins, chief economist for the Employment Policies Institute. "All of these things are because of mandated wage hikes. When you have to pay more, employers begin to find other options to keep costs down."
According to the National Restaurant Association, the last minimum wage increase cost the restaurant industry more than 146,000 jobs and restaurant owners put off plans to hire an additional 106,000 employees.
At $7.25 an hour, the most likely response from restaurants will be "increases in menu prices, elimination of some positions and reduction of staff hours to try and offset some of the increased labor costs," said Brendan Flanagan, the association's vice president of federal relations.
Others say the effect on the economy will be negligible.
A PNC Economic Outlook survey done in April showed three out of four small- and middle-market business owners said raising the minimum wage would have little or no impact on their businesses. "In a tighter labor market, they already raised wages to be competitive," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group.
Labor Department background on the minimum wage: http://tinyurl.com/wyoe
Characteristics of minimum wage workers: http://tinyurl.com/2p7sgc
本文於 修改第 2 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[26] 給陳鳳馨的備忘 有關價格割喉戰
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國際股市與國際經濟[26] 給陳鳳馨的備忘 有關價格割喉戰
我在前文三則分別提到如下之內容:
一是
國際股市與國際經濟[22]> GM Profit Falls 90 Percent From Year-Ago. Why?
我指出
由於我的前文
Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.
造成全球的上市上櫃公司
無法再以炒作股票掩蓋其經營不善 獲利不佳
因為我的前文造成任何公司想要追高殺低
都會面臨市場無情的修理
市場之所以知道虛實
乃因前文中的[Relative EPS Equation]所提供的價值判斷
二是在更早之前的一則新聞>沃爾瑪削價戰 引爆大屠殺
國際股市與國際經濟[21]> 證諸前文 concerning 新聞沃爾瑪削價戰 引爆大屠殺
沃爾瑪就已經看出
既然無法從炒作股票中賺錢
那麼唯有大力經營本業
只有進行削價戰 引爆同業間的大屠殺
讓同業經營不下去而被趕出市場
三是
經濟與股市之13\ 鄭重且全力反對【經濟日報／社論】所謂[再懇請新院長懸崖勒馬](二)
文中引一則美聯社當日新聞 我評論如下:
>美國零售業龍頭 Target 營收增加 18%
>但是毛利率幾乎沒有成長
>這意味的是美國零售業價格戰
>業已進入割喉戰的慘烈
>所以銷售大增卻不見毛利增加
>這是比台灣零售業只有[增幅]減少的情況劇烈許多
>若干台灣零售業還想哄抬物價
>真是搞不清楚狀況
如今本日又有下列三則美聯社新聞指出
美國最大的百貨公司 SEARS百貨 以及
美國最大的家用量販店 HOME DEPOT
紛紛傳出獲利警訊
這都是無法炒作股票之後
想以提高售價而被同業降價修理的結果
因為美國零售業龍頭 Target 等美國零售業
早就開始進行[價格割喉戰]
我傍晚外出購物時
已經注意到若干商品的價格
已經從上述第三篇寫作時的價格開始下跌
例如2000CC的茶飲從42-48元降價到29-32元
一家新開張的蒸餃店
蒸餃一籠從60-65元降價到45-50元 還送酸辣湯!
25元的乾麵賣19元 真是有夠拼!
若干想要藉油價上漲來漲價的店家
花點時間去探探價格吧!
這裡加一句話給陳鳳馨
相對於台塑石油的獲利
中油的虧損 是兩方面的
一是它是國營企業 有政策壓力 有政治勒索要面對
二是如妳所說 本身員工鬼混納涼 中飽私囊
造成經營成本 DOWN 不下來
妳只說其中一項 可能不算很公平的
儘管我對於中油也沒啥好感
但是我對台塑 不負擔社會責任 且 油品品質不佳 更沒好感
要不是我的前文讓王永慶狠狠地賠了半輩子所賺來的錢
否則諒妳也不知道王永慶從台塑企業凹了多少錢走
又拿了多少錢給政客搞台獨
光是給廖永來一夥用以趕走拜耳
我的估計就不只五十億 (聽人說超過200億元)
妳最好不要逼我說
你們台客都是一樣的貨色
=============================================
AP
Sears Lowers Earnings Guidance
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070710/sears_outlook.html?.v=7
Tuesday July 10, 11:15 am ET
By Ashley M. Heher, AP Business Writer
Sears Lowers Earnings Guidance on Languid Summer Sales Figures
CHICAGO (AP) -- Sears Holdings Corp.'s second-quarter earnings will likely fall well below Wall Street expectations due to more disappointing sales of home appliances and other products at both Sears and Kmart, the department store operator said Tuesday. Its shares tumbled more than 7 percent.
It would be the second earnings miss in a row for the company led by Chairman Eddie Lampert, a hedge-fund guru who acquired Kmart in 2003 and Sears, Roebuck and Co. in 2005.
For the quarter ending Aug. 4, executives at the nation's third-largest retailer said Sears expects to post earnings between $160 million and $200 million, or between $1.06 and $1.32 per share. That includes an 8-cent per share gain from bankruptcy-related settlements and investing activities.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected second-quarter earnings of $2.12 per share for the Hoffman Estates-based company.
Sears shares sank $12.48, or 7.3 percent, to $158.93 in morning trading Tuesday.
"We are disappointed with our recent performance," Chief Executive Aylwin Lewis said in a statement. "Although we believe our business has suffered from many of the same factors that have led other retailers to announce disappointing results and lowered expectations, our recent performance underscores our ongoing need to become more relevant to consumers while improving our discipline around expense management."
With Lampert at the helm, many investors have regarded Sears as a hedge fund masquerading as a department store, and anxiously awaited word from Lampert about a possible expansion that could turn around the company's fortunes. Sears' profits and stock price have fared well in the past two years but revenues are sinking.
"While investors have sought to value Sears as something other than a retailer, its recent results demonstrate that it is not immune to the current challenging sales environment impacting retailers with big-ticket home exposure," Goldman Sachs analyst Adrianne Shapira wrote in a research note.
During a nine-week period that ended July 7, same-store sales at Kmart's U.S. locations fell 3.9 percent while same-store sales fell 4 percent at Sears.
There were slight increases in women's apparel and footwear sales at Sears stores, but that wasn't enough to offset worse-than-expected declines felt across most other categories.
Same-store sales figures are an important retail industry metric of stores open at least one year.
"It looks like it's going to be a pretty rough quarter, particularly with the home appliance category," said Morningstar analyst Kim Picciola. "There are a lot of retailers vying for the same share of consumers' wallets and it doesn't seem as though they're changing their competitive position in the market place. They're continuing to lag to tough competitors like Wal-Mart and Target."
Separately, Sears said it approved the purchase of up to $1 billion of its common shares, in addition to the $121 million worth of shares that remain available for repurchase under the company 's current buyback program. Since late 2005, Sears has repurchased nearly 14 million shares at a total cost of $1.9 billion.
http://www.searsholdings.com
AP
Home Depot Warns of Earnings Decline
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070710/home_depot_outlook.html?.v=13
Tuesday July 10, 10:02 am ET
By Harry R. Weber, AP Business Writer
Home Depot Warns Earnings Will Decline This Year More Than Previously Expected
ATLANTA (AP) -- The Home Depot Inc., the world's largest home improvement store chain, warned Tuesday that its earnings will decline this year more than previously expected because of weak conditions in the housing market and the sale of its wholesale distribution business.
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The Atlanta-based company said it now expects its earnings per share to decline by 15 percent to 18 percent for fiscal 2007. In May, the company had projected an earnings per share decline of 9 percent for the year.
The earlier guidance included an estimated 18 cents of earnings per share contribution from the company's HD Supply unit for the last six months of the fiscal year.
Last month, Home Depot said it was selling the unit to a group of private equity firms for $10.3 billion. Home Depot said Tuesday it was updating its guidance to reflect the unit as a discontinued operation.
The company said it expects total retail sales to be down 1 percent to 2 percent for the year and sales at stores open at least a year to be down in the mid-single digit range.
"We look at the overall market and say there's still correction that lies ahead of us," Chief Executive Frank Blake, referring to the housing market, told investors hours after Home Depot gave the lowered guidance. "But again, we're pretty far along in the correction process."
At the same time, Blake said Home Depot sees "continued headwinds through 2007 and probably some into 2008 as well."
Blake said Home Depot still faces operational challenges. He noted Home Depot has been underperforming compared with others in its market. He said Home Depot is working to improve customer service, in part by giving employees financial incentives for doing good work.
The revised fiscal 2007 earnings per share targets reflect 52 weeks and do not include the impact of the 53rd week. The company will have 53 weeks of operating results in its fiscal 2007 financial results. Home Depot projects that the 53rd week will add approximately 3 cents to its consolidated earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2007.
The company said its updated earnings per share guidance does not include the gain on the sale of HD Supply.
Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said the company remains "confident that over the long term, we will deliver productivity improvements and enhance returns on invested capital as the investments take hold."
Also Tuesday, Home Depot said it was launching a tender offer for 250 million shares of its common stock at a price range of $39 to $44 per share. The tender offer is scheduled to expire on Aug. 16. Home Depot shares have been trading recently at around $40 a share.
Last month, the company announced a stock repurchase program in which its board had authorized the company to buy back up to $22.5 billion of Home Depot stock. The tender offer is part of that plan. At the midpoint of the tender offer's price range, the 250 million shares represent less than half of the value of the total stock repurchase authorization. Home Depot has said it wants to complete the stock buyback plan as quickly as possible. Tome said Tuesday that Home Depot is using a phased approach to its stock repurchase program.
Home Depot, which has more than 2,000 stores in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China, said Tuesday it will open approximately 108 new stores in fiscal 2007.
Home Depot shares rose 21 cents to $40.44 in morning trading Tuesday.
The Home Depot Inc.: http://www.homedepot.com
AP
Stocks Decline After Retailer Outlooks
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070710/wall_street.html?.v=23
Tuesday July 10, 11:16 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer
Stocks Fall on Disappointing Forecasts From Home Depot and Sears, Ahead of Bernanke Speech
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks retreated Tuesday as Wall Street, nervously awaiting a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, reacted to troubling forecasts from the retailers Home Depot and Sears.
Bernanke is expected to speak on inflation at 1 p.m. EDT in Cambridge, Mass., and any indication that the Fed chairman believes price pressures are rising could heighten worries about a possible interest rate hike and give the stock market a jolt.
Meanwhile, as the U.S. dollar tumbled to a new low against the euro and investors fled to the relative safety of Treasury bonds, the second-quarter earnings season got off to a rocky start. Early Tuesday, Home Depot Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. offered disappointing financial outlooks that raised concerns about the housing market dampening consumer spending.
The outlooks -- which followed Monday's news that aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.'s second-quarter sales missed forecasts and that printer maker Lexmark International Inc. slashed its second-quarter earnings forecast -- dispirited investors who had been counting on corporate America's performance giving a boost to the stock market, which has been stuttering in recent weeks.
"I don't think it's been a great day-and-a-half of earnings reporting," Stephen Carl, principal and head of equity trading at The Williams Capital Group. He added that the market could turn on what Bernanke has to say: "If there's any type of inflationary posture, that's going to exacerbate everything."
In late morning trading, the Dow fell 67.96, or 0.50 percent, to 13,582.01.
Broader stock indicators also dropped. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 10.22, or 0.67 percent, to 1,521.63, while the Nasdaq composite index was off 14.44, or 0.54 percent, at 2,655.58.
Bond prices soared, pushing down the 10-year Treasury note's yield to 5.07 percent from 5.16 percent late Monday. The decline in yields failed to boost stocks, largely because the decrease was caused by worries about the housing market rather than confidence that inflation is easing. In recent weeks, falling yields have buoyed the stock market; high yields can slow down dealmaking and make stocks look like a less attractive investment.
The dollar dropped to a new low versus the euro Tuesday and a 26-year low against the British pound. The U.S. currency also slipped against the yen.
Home improvement retailer Home Depot said this year's earnings will slip more than expected due in part to the sluggish housing market, while Sears issued second-quarter guidance that fell below forecasts because of weak sales of appliances and other products.
The financial and retail sectors saw significant losses, after the dreary housing forecast elevated jitters about subprime lending and consumer spending. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., American Express Co. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. were the big losers among the 30 Dow companies.
Investors found little relief in the Commerce Department's report that May wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent, more than in April and slightly higher than expected.
Sears plunged $12.76, or 7.4 percent, to $158.65 after issuing its guidance. Home Depot rose 44 cents to $40.67, and Alcoa rose 2 cents to $42.38.
Not all of Tuesday's guidance was disappointing: Pepsi Bottling Group Inc., one of the world's largest distributors of Pepsi drinks, raised its outlook for full-year earnings, and its stock rose $1.81, or 5.3 percent, to $36.24.
Dow component General Motors Co. and its rival Ford Motor Co. also gained after a JPMorgan analyst upgraded the shares of both automakers. GM rose 82 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $37.59, and Ford rose 13 cents to $9.21.
Crude oil futures climbed 64 cents to $72.83 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold prices rose.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 3 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 428.5 million shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 8.41, or 0.99 percent, to 844.83.
In Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.05 percent; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.3 percent to a sixth straight record close; and China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent.
In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 1.06 percent, Germany's DAX index was down 1.46 percent, and France's CAC-40 was down 1.52 percent.
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
本文於 修改第 2 次
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[25] To Professor Paul Samuelson of MIT about the so-called "over-consumation"
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[25] To Professor Paul Samuelson of MIT about the so-called "over-consumation"
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1348504&tpno=0&raid=2279562&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep2279562
Dear Sir,
In a piece of news in this column, attached in the [23rd], you named an economic situation as "over-consumation". I beg to be different if you read the following news in Mandarin, which says a miserable situation in India, the forever debt.
As a believer of the doctrines of the great Lord Keynes, I will say that one of the key idea of the Doctrines is to be 'OF Industry' and 'OFF Finance'. So the financial bollowing is ought to be refered as a form of inflation instead of the named 'over-consumation'. It is a constraint, not a possible frontier of benefice. That is all the matter.
A simular case in understanding this, I will say that the over-15%ed VAT in Germany is an overwhelmingly understandable one which kills the economic vatality in a comparative view for sure. But somehow, the influence of VAT is ought to be focused on MPC in short-term, while the financial bollowing in long-term.
faithfully yours,
cathy20048
==============================
自殺：弱勢群體的最後抗議
http://editorland.chinatimes.com/sheena/archive/2007/06/25/4139.html
張慧英
每朵烏雲都鑲著銀邊，但，每道陽光下，往往也藏著黑暗。
當金磚四國的成功廣受注目，外資搶進、國際熱錢也紛紛湧入時，這些國家固然受惠於經濟起飛，但民眾卻未必能雨露均霑。
拜網路科技之賜，印度十餘年來宛如插上了翅膀，翩然有一飛沖天之勢。但事實上，在龐大的11億人口中，有多達八億人一天的生活費不到二美元，他們沒有能力搭上科技和全球化的翅膀，把自己從一代傳一代的貧困無知中拉拔起來，卻可以從媒體影視中，看到金字塔頂端的人如何享受，相對剝奪感因此更加深刻，加上外國公司紛紛搶進印度，科技人才和外包人員當紅，工資愈來愈高，導致物價、教育與醫療費用都跟著漲。印度社會原本就嚴重的貧富差距，為之更加擴大，弱勢者的挫折感與絕望感也隨之更為刺骨。
最明顯的是農民自殺問題。印度的農村佔了全國三分之二的勞動力，這些底層庶民的生活就是印度的主流生活態貌，而每年農村總有數千人選擇自殺，原因通常是經濟問題。
印度有句形容農民的話，講得萬分悲哀：「生於債，活於債，死於債。」（Born in debt, live in debt, die in debt.）莊稼人看天吃飯，日子本來就苦，三不五時再來個歉收災害，往往就無米下鍋。銀行不肯放款給這些窮光蛋，他們只好找鄉間的私人錢莊借錢。錢莊利息當然要得兇，可以高到20%，擔保品當然就是農民的田地。但因為利息太高，債款迅速膨脹，經常很快就超過債務人的償還能力。換句話說，許多人從借錢的第一天開始，就失去了自己的土地，成了錢莊的農奴。
龐大的經濟壓力，無望的未來，沈重的家庭擔子，讓很多人最後選擇自殺。更糟的是，就算借款人死了，錢莊也不允許家人拋棄債務，父債必須子還，債務會繼續掛在下一代頭上，甚至不乏一出生就負債累累的狀況。在債務中出生，在貧窮中長大，再怎麼辛苦耕作也沒有擺脫債務的一天，最後還是在債台高築中死去。這樣的人生，你不能怪他想提前畢業。
印度年輕女性的自殺率也高得驚人，居全球第一位。1991年每10萬人自殺率是9.2人，2004年一項針對10到19歲女性自殺率的統計，是每 10萬人有148人（英國是2.1人），而且女高於男，男性自殺率是每10萬人有58人。這相當不尋常，因為全球自殺率統計是男性約為女性的三倍。可見在極度重男輕女的印度，女性承受了非常沈重的壓力。
無獨有偶，中國大陸也有類似的情形。最近《華盛頓郵報》報導指出，大陸女性自殺率比男性多25%，而且農村自殺率是城市的三倍。其中又以農村年輕女性自殺最為普遍，她們平均只受過五年小學教育，月收入才13美元，42%的家庭面臨經濟壓力，38%遭到家暴，以致於自殺年齡逐漸下降。
自殺者固然有其身心因素，但弱勢者明顯偏高的自殺率，卻是社會資源分配失衡的確鑿罪證。然而，當萬千弱勢者以自我了斷，集體向體制作出最後一聲沈痛的控訴時，有權力為他們做點事的人，卻總是充耳不聞。
引用：http://editorland.chinatimes.com/sheena/archive/2007/06/25/4139.html
本文於 修改第 1 次
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(24) Suggestion to the Chinese Central Bank:To maintain the price of crude oil
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(24) Suggestion to the Chinese Central Bank:
To maintain the price of crude oil
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?no=3446&aid=1348504&raid=2264240#rep2264240
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Vorwort
As we all know, one of the jobs that a central bank does is to maintain the inflation which reflects itself in the indexes of CPI and PPI as well as the prices of raw materials and crude oil. The price of the latest is, somehow, the most important one which made the world ecomomy down to dirt. So it is my suggestion to the Chinese Central Bank: To maintain the prices of raw materials and crude oil in futures market. Which I wrote in this letter to you in Mandarin for your reference.
This letter is also an appeal to the world that you should command your domestic central banks to prevent the malicious demand crude oil manipulated mainly by the Arabs and the Jews along with the Bush Family of Texas, United States.
There are plenty of crede oil without being excavated. We have enough of it before the solar and nuclear power systems in their ever-ready convienence. What we should halt is the son-of-bitch international capitalistic games of money. Demand your central bank to do their job as mentioned to stop the exploitation!
For your knowledgement, Chinese Central Bank has newly established an investment company to handle the excess quantity of the green backs for the prevention of irrational pricing of crude oil with the ready cash of 300 billion and the instant cash of one trillion US dollars due to this letter. China is very serious about this. It was 10 dollars two years ago, but it is around 70 dollars now whereby? Does the quantity of consumation mount to 7 times high? No, definitely not! It is all because of the manipulation of those fuckers!
給周小川的最後一堂經濟學
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1320023&tpno=0&raid=2229622&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep2229622
事情是這樣的
五月廿四我寫了一篇文章
引用美聯社的一則當日新聞
大意市指美國零售業者就其財務報表而言
處於激烈的削價競爭
務使對手廠商不支倒閉
我用以指陳台灣零售批發業者
任意哄抬物價 屯積居奇 為不識大勢
該文刊登次日油價大漲 漲破七十大關
我當然知道這是本網站常客
不論是 Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers,
抑或是 Greenspan, Kissinger Foundation,
乃至 OPEC 會員國等等國際炒客之所為
他們認為既然需求如此高
當然可以趁機炒作炒作 敲敲竹槓
半年前我因另一篇文章
把油價從 78 美元分三波走勢 打到 52 美元
造成不少石油炒家虧損多達數千億
其中一個炒家就是台灣的王永慶
他的長子就是親台獨資本家的狗衙門__國台辦所搞出來的台商總會長
我估計王永慶就虧掉了他大半輩子從各處撈來的錢
包括他以五鬼搬運法從台塑企業弄到自己的海外帳戶
此次油價一口氣衝上七十美元以上的價位
使得原本軋單 有鉅額未實現虧損的石油大亨
彷彿打了一劑強心針
不再是如同滑落到六十美元上下 忍痛出脫
現在反而是有可能考慮加碼
一鼓作氣把油價拱上百元價位
為此而有本公開函
目前大陸因為全面發展經濟
亟需石油供應能夠保持廉價
如今油價非但沒有因為河北發現巨量藏油而下跌
反而大幅上揚
可見上述所謂半年前的石油炒家的買單
其大量的口單所累積的每日計息的利息支出 壓力極為沉重
(粗估平均每個大炒家的日息支出 在 200-500 萬美元之譜)
故以此波炒高油價來試圖急於脫手
所以本波的假性需求無乃是迴光返照
恐怕是油價正式且長期下跌的開始
固而我認為可以乘勝追擊 迫使這些炒家進一步地消滅
反之 若不進行此一放空石油期貨的反制之舉
油價更將攀高至整個中國 整個世界都要完蛋的地步
就石油期貨的線型而言
長期合理價位
應該在 28-42 美元區間波動
所以我們如果以目前超額供給的美元外匯來放空石油期貨
應該是可以大有斬獲 到匪夷所思的地步
就以一兆美元作底 而以一千億美元進場
以保證金的方式在 75-80 美元價位
布置一億口空單的部位
單單是空單利息
每天約可以賺進五億到七億美元
至於細節要問期貨商 有關石油期貨目前點值為多少美元
倘使油價因此下跌到40美元以下
也就是說 每口單的收益將高達約四千點
也就是大約 25,000 美元的收益
總數一億口的單量獲利
將使得國家財富在半年後爆增超過二兆美元!
之所以選擇以一兆美元作底
是為了應付所謂的 floating (unrealized risk)
又之所以在 75-80 美元價位進場
乃是考量到市場的心理價位__百元美金價位
這一兆美元足以應付這樣的 floating
而本函之所以採公開信模式
也可以算是 [公開市場操作] 的模式
必然會引起國際空頭加入打壓油價的行列
若本函公布之後 造成油價隨即大跌
以致於標的物消失
個人認為黃金期貨仍是很好的標的物
以目前趨近於歷史水位的九百餘美元的價位
如我所言
值得長期放空(二三年)到價位出現 250-350 美元
空單利息
每天也可以賺進五億到七億美元
故而此一投資單單是以日息而不考慮價差
二三年大約就可以淨賺超過五兆美元!
之所以說本函是[最後一堂經濟學]
乃因你至今一毛錢的學費 顧問費也沒付
我實在是指點到手軟的地步
其次
此事要是再辦不出來
那麼這兩年的人事大調整
我看你就乾脆退休去當老百姓算了
你的前任 前人民銀行行長 朱熔基總理
擺平了東亞金融風暴 救了中國也救了整個東亞
當初步上中央之前
與江澤民主席原本了無淵源
卻受到江主席的器重
你可知道原委?
這樣說吧
我二伯 上海新火車站的起造人
是江澤民主席在上海交通大學的同學
朱熔基總理是因為與我二伯為同鄉 為我二伯一力薦舉
故而江主席才放心用一個陌生人作總理的
所以你說我有沒有資格在國家經濟層面置喙?
算起來我也是個廣義的太子黨
不會比你的背景差
更尤其是我在全世界的經濟上
貢獻之大 足以名留青史 受世間數百年的香火蒸薰
還需要我告訴你 下面這篇文章嗎?
Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1327310&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
如果需要一提
那就是這篇文章最近將改版
將要加入我寫給上海市委書記習近平先生的一封信
我二伯與我對中國的貢獻
我會說 絕對超過 99.9% 的共產黨員對中國的貢獻
而我二伯與我卻都活出共產黨員的典範 過著清貧的日子
我二伯癌症甚至到沒錢買藥 也不貪不取
我也差不多 身上的病痛 也是如此對付
反過來說
你數次以貨幣政策施壓經濟
來表示對我前文的頑抗
難不成這就是你對中國的貢獻嗎?
>周小川：中國股市泡沫令人擔憂 喂!周小川你說那什麼屁話!
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1320023&no=3446&raid=2202820#rep2202820
所以你給我搞清楚
我現在是在給你機會立功
好讓你保住人民銀行行長這個位子
不要又再 給臉不要臉! 什麼玩意兒!
本文於 修改第 3 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[23]>諾貝爾獎得主 MIT 經濟學教授 Paul Samuelson: 要敬美元而遠之 不只是心理因素 更因為美國是一個過度消費社會。
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國際股市與國際經濟[23]>諾貝爾獎得主 MIT 經濟學教授 Paul Samuelson: 要敬美元而遠之 不只是心理因素 更因為美國是一個過度消費社會。
工商時報 2007.05.08
專家唱衰 美元還有得跌
http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,120504+122007050800383,00.html
李鐏龍/綜合外電報導
彭博社周一報導，最近美元兌歐元匯價創下歷史新低、對英鎊也創下二十五年來新低，如果有人認為美元跌勢到此為止，就太不知輕重了。在國際貨幣基金（IMF）前首席經濟學家羅戈夫（Kenneth Rogoff）及Wachovia銀行分析師布瑞森（Jay Bryson）看來，二○○八年底之前，美元匯率至少還有一○％的下檔空間。
布瑞森說：「美元疲弱將是廣泛的，而且可能延續多年。」諾貝爾獎得主、現為麻省理工學院經濟學教授的薩繆森（Paul Samuelson）則說：「主要趨勢是敬美元而遠之，不只是心理因素，更因為美國是一個高度消費社會。」
聯準會（Fed）貿易加權美元指數已跌至十年來低點，美元過去兩年的貶幅為三．四％，近來對歐元創下一．三六八一美元的歷史新低，對英鎊也寫下二．○一三三美元的一九八一年六月來低價。
美元利空，主要來自於美國經濟成長趨疲，聯準會可能必須降息的現實。IMF預測美國今年的經濟成長率，將自二○○一年來首度低於歐元區，及十六年來首度低於日本。其次是IMF的統計顯示，各國央行減碼美元資產，美元占全球外匯存底的比率，在去年末季降低至六四．七％，較前一季減少一．一個百分點。同時，亞洲國家央行可能已開始讓貨幣加快升值腳步。
Wachovia的布瑞森預測，到二○○八年底之前，美元對中國人民幣可能再貶逾九％，累及對歐元可能再下探一五％，羅戈夫則預測美元對歐元還有一○％的下檔空間。
不過由於美元貶值可刺激美國出口成長，縮減美國貿易逆差，因此也不乏分析師預測，二○○八年美元將隨著美國經濟一齊反彈，對歐元可望在年底前回升到一．三○美元。
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國際股市與國際經濟[22]> GM Profit Falls 90 Percent From Year-Ago. Why?
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國際股市與國際經濟[22]> GM Profit Falls 90 Percent From Year-Ago
若還有人搞不清楚 Relative EPS Equation 的威力?
那就看看這則新聞 GM Profit Falls 90 Percent From Year-Ago
==================================
AP
GM Profit Falls 90 Percent From Year-Ago
Thursday May 3, 8:28 am ET
By Tom Krisher, AP Auto Writer
General Motors Profit Falls 90 Percent Compared With a Year Ago
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. reported Thursday its first-quarter profit fell 90 percent compared with a year ago, citing losses in the home lending operations of its former financial arm.
It was the second consecutive quarterly profit for the nation's largest automaker which said it had record vehicle sales worldwide and improvements in its automotive operations in the latest quarter.
ADVERTISEMENT
But the profit of $62 million, or 11 cents a share, for the January-March period was down from $602 million, or $1.06 per share, a year ago.
The company attributed the year-over-year decline to losses in the residential mortgage business of GMAC Financial Services. GM sold a 51 percent stake in GMAC to private equity investors last year, but still owns a 49 percent stake in the business.
"We were able to expand vehicle sales and improve automotive profitability based on the progress in our turnaround initiatives in North America and Europe and our expansion strategy for key growth markets like China, Russia and South America," Rick Wagoner, GM chairman and chief executive, said in a statement.
"We continue to see progress on the automotive bottom line as we implement the strategies laid out two years ago."
While the automaker's North American performance improved, the company still lost an adjusted $85 million on its core operations, GM said.
The company also reported $32 million of special items largely due to restructuring in its Europe and Asia Pacific divisions. Its results a year ago were also inflated by a one-time after-tax gain of $395 million due to the sale of its equity ownership of Suzuki Motors.
Excluding special items, GM's net income was $94 million, or 17 cents per share, compared with net income of $350 million, or 62 cents per share in the first quarter of 2006. Those results fell short of Wall Street expectations.
Fifteen analysts polled by Thomson Financial predicted earnings of 87 cents per share, excluding special items.
GM shares fell 81 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $31.63 in premarket trading.
Chief Financial Officer Fritz Henderson attributed the difference primarily to a $115 million loss from GMAC, its former financial arm. He said analysts didn't try to estimate the GMAC losses, which he said would be much less in the second quarter.
First-quarter revenue was $43.9 billion, down 16 percent from $52.4 billion in the same period a year ago. GM said the decline was almost entirely due to GMAC revenue no longer being included in GM's consolidated results.
Automotive revenue for the quarter was $42.9 billion, down from $43.6 billion in the first quarter of 2006.
But while automotive revenue slipped, the number of cars and trucks GM sold globally rose 3 percent to 2.26 million in the quarter.
GM shares fell 81 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $31.63 in premarket trading.
General Motors Corp.: http://www.gm.com
本文於 修改第 2 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[21]> 證諸前文 concerning 新聞沃爾瑪削價戰 引爆大屠殺
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國際股市與國際經濟[21]> 證諸前文 concerning 新聞:
沃爾瑪削價戰 引爆大屠殺
我在前文 [貨幣政策無用論]之二>貨幣政策敗象已露 指出
...
那就是美國的傳產股各公司
現在不管石油價格而˙拼˙命˙殺˙低˙產品價格求現
市場競爭出現[殺斷喉]現象
將會導致產業中的版塊重組
經營優勢不足的廠家
特指未上市上櫃的中小企業工廠
將會面臨通盤瓦解
這樣的產業大地震
很快就會漂洋過海而來形成大海嘯
所以目前台灣各大小廠家
還敢把油價反映在售價之上
馬上就會招致國際市場的無情打壓
故而要買耐久財的消費者
再等幾個月就會有跳樓大拍賣可期
粗估在這兩個月之內 ...
固然我當時太樂觀
認為只消短短兩個月 (寫於2005/08/10 12:16)
但是同年十月份宏碁的確打出
[筆記電腦 兩萬有找]如是之促銷
不過我還是要承認
我當時之上語指的是
本日新聞沃爾瑪這般大的廠商
所以說我還是過份樂觀了
但這種[領導廠商定價模式]情形一旦開始
馬上就會造成全球大流行
高油價卻物價下跌
凱因斯理論之所敗
然而這可不是芝加哥貨幣經濟學派的功勞
而是我這個[新凱因斯學派]
雖然目前只有我一個人
子曰:[雖千萬人 吾往矣]
我一下子自覺自己好像是逃離北宗魔掌的六祖惠能
不禁潸然淚下
================================
工商時報 2007.04.25
沃爾瑪削價戰 引爆大屠殺
蕭麗君/綜合外電報導
全球零售巨擘沃爾瑪在去年底銷售旺季率先祭出削價策略，把最熱門的消費電子產品─四十二吋平面電視降到一千美元以下，而在此之後的四個月期間，此一策略已造成消費電子業的大屠殺，多家業者不堪虧損而被迫關門。
根據美國商業週刊報導，這場平面電視浴血戰的結果已經揭曉！Circuit City繼二月份結束七十家分店後，三月二十八日又裁員三千四百人，此外在加拿大的八百家分店也岌岌可危。
高檔家庭娛樂廠商 Tweeter Home Entertainment 集團也關閉一五三家分店中的四十九家，並裁撤六五○人。總部位於達拉斯的CompUSA收掉二二九家店的一二六家，至於地區性的零售廠商 Rex Stores 也結束十多家暢貨中心，並要出售九四家分店。這些零售業者被迫縮小規模，是因為在沃爾瑪的巨大陰影下，他們看不到未來有任何轉機。
這場電子零售業的大屠殺，總括一句話，就是「沃爾瑪效果」。對於多數電子競爭對手而言，這場平面電視的慘痛經驗其實就是過去二十多年，沃爾瑪擅用砍價戰術來讓自己成長茁壯的情景重演。曾把地方超市打得招架無力，並以折扣玩具迫使 FAO Schwartz 與 KB Toys 破產的沃爾瑪，這次把戰場設定在消費電子。
除了沃爾瑪降價策略外，另外還有兩因素在去年底平面電視大降價，並進而引發這場惡性殺價競爭中扮演關鍵角色。
首先是像 Sears 與 CompUSA 在觀察到平面電視在過去兩年需求激增後，大幅進行不同品牌產品的囤積。其次是三星、新力、 Panasonic 與 Westinghouse 在去年積極增產，結果導致平面電視反而供過於求。
本文於 修改第 2 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[20]>富比世雜誌總編輯佛布茲: 在過去五年中雖然全球出現混亂不穩和衝突 但全球經濟確實成長超過25% 在歷史上從未有過如此成長
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富比世雜誌總編輯佛布茲:
在過去五年中 雖然全球出現混亂不穩和衝突
但全球經濟確實成長超過百分之二十五
在歷史上從未有過如此成長
理由在這裡與這裡
==================================
今日晚報 2007.03.09
蓋茲有錢不是新聞 去年為人類最有錢的一年
http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,130504+132007030900986,00.html
中央社
富比世今天公布資產在十億美元以上的億萬富翁名單，微軟創辦人之一比爾．蓋茲循例是全世界最有錢的人，不過，蓋茲領先其他企業家的差距已經逐漸縮小。另外，全球經濟欣欣向榮，去年也是人類歷史上最富有的一年。
這是蓋茲連續第十三年名列全球最有錢人的首位，今年他的資產為五百六十億美元；美國投資名人巴斐特資產增加為五百二十億美元，將電腦軟體巨擘蓋茲的領先差距縮小一半，緊追在後；墨西哥電信鉅子海魯資產大幅增加一百九十億美元，穩居第三。
今年上榜的億萬富翁總共達到創紀錄的九百四十六人，較去年增加了一百五十人，富比士將這種大幅增加的趨勢歸因於日用商品銷售暢旺、科技躍進以及美元的相對弱勢。
上榜企業家的資產總值較去年成長百分之三十五，達到驚人的三點五兆美元。
富比世雜誌總編輯佛布茲在宣布億萬富豪名單時指出：「億萬富翁名單反映了全球經濟的活絡，地球上許多人過得比以前都要好」，「欣欣向榮不僅在日用商品上呈現，促進全球經濟欣欣向榮，讓數億人搭上經濟快車的，當然是科技發展」。
他指出：「這是人類歷史上最有錢的一年」。
這是富比世雜誌公布第二十屆全球富豪名單，仍以美國企業家為主，但來自俄羅斯和亞洲的億萬富翁，特別是印度和中國的有錢人，已逐漸增加他們在名單裡的能見度。
以印度鋼鐵王米塔為首的印度億萬富翁，共有三十六人入榜，他們的資產總值達到一千九百一十億美元，接替日本二十年維持亞洲第一富豪國家的地位。
不過，如果中國和香港的富豪合併計算為四十一人，則印度的居首情勢就會改觀，香港和中國最有錢的人分別是李嘉誠（房地產及投資）和張茵（玖龍紙業）。
歐洲的部分，西班牙有十人新上榜，俄羅斯則有十九人新進；其中俄羅斯富豪的平均年齡是四十六歲，比六十二歲的富豪平均年齡輕了十六歲。
俄羅斯石油大亨、英國切爾西職業足球隊老闆艾布拉莫維奇的一百八十七億美元財富，仍然是俄羅斯最有錢的人，他和其他五十二名俄羅斯億萬富豪主要從事石油、鋼鐵、礦業和金屬。
佛布茲表示：「在過去五年中，雖然全球出現混亂不穩和衝突，但全球經濟確實成長超過百分之二十五，在歷史上從未有過如此成長」。
本文於 修改第 2 次
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國際股市與國際經濟[之十九]> 陳鳳馨妳這個小蠢蛋 老師在說 妳倒底有沒有在聽啊!
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國際股市與國際經濟[之十九]>
陳鳳馨妳這個小蠢蛋 老師在說 妳倒底有沒有在聽啊!
拿這套來與我唱反調?--[歐元美夢碎？歐人懷念國幣]
大約不到兩週前
我以法文寫了以下這篇文章
Viva! L'Alliance de Sino-Russo-India (4) Une lettre brève à l'Alliance de Sino-Russo-India
內容是建議中俄印建立共同貨幣 RICH,
(Russia + India + CHina)
但是實力足以操縱國際媒體的鉅子
(我猜是英國的梅鐸)
立刻叫人寫了某篇新聞稿
與下錄的這篇文章[歐元美夢碎？歐人懷念國幣]同義
用以製造輿論反對我上述之呼籲
可見我上述之呼籲果然是[法語之言 能無從乎]
試想
當此三大國中俄印建立共同貨幣 RICH
東協各國 中東各國 以及離異的前蘇東波各國
甚至於 拉美各國 非洲各國
風向會往何處
自當十分明顯
這個反對意見只是初步
以後英美歐洲還會有種種破壞之舉
就如同前幾個月前
英美歐洲被我視破
想要以外匯對人民幣大幅灌水
迫使人民幣大升特升之後
再擠兌出場 讓人民幣再大幅貶值
我就靜悄悄地寫了下列這篇
喂!周小川 我曾大川再來教你如何解決過高的外匯存底壓力
這些歐美間諜看完這篇之後
立刻轉告其上屬之相關單位
以致於原本已經進場的歐美資金嚇到出場
轉回美元存款 不敢猛烈攻擊
使得人民幣回歸正常交易
之所以說[靜悄悄地寫]
乃因[喂!周小川 我曾大川...]這篇文章並沒有寄往全世界
只有在此發表
藉以測試那些歐美間諜盯稍盯到什麼程度
總之
既然歐美資金從人民幣退場之後
我現在談了共同貨幣 RICH 之後
豈不是又造成人民幣面臨烽火狀況?
不會 不會
反倒是俄國盧布 印度盧比的匯價會因此上昇
因為歐美資金正在試圖從該二國退場
其中一部分造成印度的通膨高達38%
因為外資退場
使得印度當地政商認為印度盧比將要大貶
所以通膨高達38%
故而
我以此招施救印度經濟金融
藉此玩倒那些使計金融攻擊的國際資本家
他們都是按照芝加哥貨幣學派理論
兵不血刃地搞倒任何一國
兵不血刃地搞倒任何一國
兵不血刃地搞倒任何一國
兵不血刃地搞倒任何一國
陳鳳馨妳這個小蠢蛋
老師在說 妳倒底有沒有在聽啊!
===============================
歐元美夢碎？歐人懷念國幣
【聯合晚報／國際新聞組彭淮棟/綜合報導】
http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR3/3734702.shtml
2007.02.21 04:37 pm
歐元2002年1月1日盛大推出，說是單一貨幣將能促進歐洲政治整合，各國經濟成長率將能不斷升高，歐洲從此不受通貨危機威脅，歐元將和美元抗衡。三億歐洲人張臂歡迎，從北大西洋到太平洋，也有數十國和歐元掛鉤。
但整整五年後的今天，歐洲政治統合的希望漸行漸遠，各國經濟成長率未見提高。德國、法國兩個龍頭，以及荷蘭，人民愈來愈懷念國幣，義大利甚至興起反歐元浪潮，政壇已有人呼籲丟掉歐元，恢復國幣，挽救義大利一年不如一年的競爭力。
斯洛維尼亞1月1日成為「歐元區」第13國，但斯洛維尼亞加入歐元區，主要不是為了不太可期的經濟利益，而是象徵這個國家真的揮別共產主義。
開門七件事最能看出人民不滿何在。原有歐盟區12國的人民說，他們國家放棄國幣改行歐元以來，生活成本增加了。啡和啤酒價格走高，最令人火大，能源支出也增加了，尤其無法接受。真是無商不奸，許多店家利用換制造成的混亂，以成本提高為由，在所有物價上加碼。
國幣和歐元之間互兌，零頭小數煩死人，斯洛維尼亞政府為了幫助人民算帳，免費贈送全國76萬戶計算機，但一位蔬菜店老闆說，一定有許多柴米油鹽會漲價。
發行歐元的歐洲中央銀行說，物價上漲都是假相，其實歐元實行五年以來，通膨一直維持只比2%多一點的水平，十分穩定，至於能源成本、房地產價格上升，和歐元了不相干，而且包括高科技在內，許多物價還下降。
再說，歐洲中央銀行公信力夠，使歐元區國家有信心以較低利率發行債券，也就是政府能以較低利息借錢，從而導至長期利率降低，由此又導至短期利率降低，終端受惠的就是消費者。但這是專家才懂的邏輯，拿來向芸芸眾生推銷，很多人鴨子聽雷。
不少專家承認，歐元國享受到什麼好處，真看不出來。倒是英國不用歐元，其經濟成績在歐元存在的七年裡，有五年優於歐元區 (歐元1999年開始作為會計貨幣，2002年開始發行銅板和紙幣)。
難怪許多人對國幣不勝懷念，最新民調顯示，58%德國人寧用馬克，不要歐元，四分之三德國人至今繼續用馬克計算物價。法國最新民調也顯示，52%民眾說，當初放棄法郎「非常笨」。
歐元想使歐洲從經濟統一邁向政治統一，看來路還長著。
【2007/02/21 聯合晚報】
本文於 修改第 4 次
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