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> 茂矽很爛嗎? 比較比較 你可能會很吃驚! [金融績優股] IV
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瀏覽3,262 ｜回應23｜推薦0 |
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本處所謂
>>績優股(電子股)>庫藏%數與外資持有%數
為 <摩根概念> <台灣50> 三類的綜合
其與茂矽的比較
原始資料來自
---------------------------------------
12/21分析>績優股(金融股)>庫藏%數與外資持有%數
cathy20048 2004/12/21 09:52
https://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1106246&tpno=0&no=3446
---------------------------------------
此處增訂
去年第三季EPS 與 本日收盤
下表為原始表
隨於本文之後的其他比較
都來自下表
===================================
金融股____________外資_2004年__1/10
__編號___庫藏股___持有_第3季___收盤
__名稱_____[%]____[%]_EPS(元)__[元]
2801彰銀___22.66__5.45__0.07__21.3
2808北商銀_29.05__9.24__0.37__24.4
2880華南金_11.35__3.32__0.44__26.4
2881富邦金_16.33_30.06__0.53__32.5
2882國泰金__7.80_11.58__0.93__64.0
2883開發金__2.14__4.90__0.09__14.85
2886兆豐金__0.00_12.79__0.51__21.3
2887台新金__0.17_30.72__0.67__29.1
2890建華金__0.71_33.63__0.23__18.3
2891中信金__5.89_52.18__0.85__37.0
------------------------------------------------
2342茂矽___21.95_22.77__0.40__2.43
================================================
EPS資料來源:
http://yamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/GetReport.asp?select_table=html\bqis\R_&stockid=2408&name1=D5&index1=2
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EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XIV > (EPS=7.00~7.99
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本文接續前文之分析:
EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XIII > (EPS=6.00~6.99)
cathy20048 2005/02/01 10:21
===================================
[@]|EPS at the range of NT$ 7.00~7.99;
___|peak at NT$ 170; mean at NT$ 138.46
__3|_______________________________________________________________________
__2|___________________________________________.___________________________
__1|___________________._._______.___.._____......___._____________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
值得留意的是
本文(EPS=7.00~7.99)的中數 NT$ 138.46
與前文(EPS=6.00~6.99)的中數 NT$ 136.82
非常接近
這是因為市場以往[用猜的]之所以然
當我們去試圖整理出
y=ax+b的EPS與股價的回歸方程式
這個問題就會消弭
以後的情形是
>>>>>>>>>>>>[EPS在7元之上]與[EPS在7元之下]會有明顯價位區隔
就以前文所述之電子股的情形而言:
--------------------------
當EPS在6-7元時
合理股價應該在 80-110元之間
故而
(80+110)/2=95[元]是基準價---------------------|95[元]是基準價
...___________________________________________|
更正>歷年EPS看[電子績優股] 經營前景 [XIII]-1__|
cathy20048 2005/01/20 11:29_________|
--------------------------____________________|===>有明顯差距的
當EPS在5-6元時________________________________|
合理股價應該在70-110元之間____________________|
故而 (70+100)/2=85[元]是基準價----------------|85[元]是基準價
...
歷年EPS看[電子績優股] 經營前景 [XIII]
cathy20048 2005/01/20 10:58
-----------------------------------
比較峰值的高度(T)時
當本文中
(EPS=7.00~7.99); T=__2
而前文
(EPS=6.00~6.99); T=__1
(EPS=5.00~5.99); T=__3
(EPS=4.00~4.99); T=__5
(EPS=3.00~3.99); T=_15
(EPS=2.00~2.99); T=_24
(EPS=1.00~1.99); T=_25
結果 在本文中
(EPS=7.00~7.99)的次數[T]
高過了(EPS=6.00~6.99)
這在統計上
是認為樣本數不夠多的理由
(只有13個出相點)
才會形成這種次數高度
沒有遞減的情形
當母體樣本越多
奶瓶奶嘴形狀的鐘型分配
越是呈現平滑曲線
就經濟學的圖形概念來說
也是如此
==================================
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
= 1800/13 = 138.46(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在7.00~7.99元時
合理股價應在138.46元上下浮動60元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
___|_____________________________________________________________________
7.8|________________________________________e___e________________________
7.7|_____________________________e_______________________________________
7.6|_________________________________________e_______e___________________
___|_____________________________________________________________________
7.4|___________________e_e____________________ee_________________________
___|_____________________________________________________________________
7.2|__________________________________e__________________________________
7.1|___________________________________________e_e_______________________
7.0|__________________________e______e___________e_______________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_40_________1_______40
:
_50_________1_______50
:
_90_________1_______90
:
110_________1______110
115_________1______115
:
145_________1______145
150_________1______150
160_________1______160
170_________2______340
180_________1______180
190_________1______190
:
230_________1______230
__________________________
___________13_____1800
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EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XIII > (EPS=6.00~6.99)
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本文接續前文之分析
EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XII > (EPS=5.00~5.99)
cathy20048 2005/01/31 22:02
===================================
[@]|EPS at the range of NT$ 5.00~5.99;
___|NO peak; mean at NT$ 136.82
__2|_______________________________________________________________________
__1|___________________.__._.____.____.__.._.______._____________._________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
比較峰值的高度(T)時
當本文中
(EPS=6.00~6.99); T=__1
而前文
(EPS=5.00~5.99); T=__3
(EPS=4.00~4.99); T=__5
(EPS=3.00~3.99); T=_15
(EPS=2.00~2.99); T=_24
(EPS=1.00~1.99); T=_25
====================================
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
=1505/11 = 136.82(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在6.00~6.99元時
合理股價應在136.82元上下浮動50元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
EPS為 6.6元, 6.8元,6.9元者無資料
___|_____________________________________________________________________
6.7|___________________________________________e___e_____________________
___|_____________________________________________________________________
6.5|__________________________________e__________________________________
6.4|___________________e_________________________________________________
6.3|______________________________________e______________________________
6.2|_____________________________________e__e____________________________
6.1|________________________e____________________________________e_______
6.0|______________________e______e_______________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_40_________1_______40
:
_55_________1_______55
:
_65_________1_______65
:
_90_________1_______90
:
115_________1______115
:
130_________1______130
135_________1______130
:
145_________1______145
:
170_________1______170
:
210_________1______220
:
350_________1______350
__________________________
___________11_____1505
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>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XII > (EPS=5.00~5.99)
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本文接續前文之分析
>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
cathy20048 2005/01/31 13:32
===================================
[C]|EPS at the range of NT$ 5.00~5.99;
___|peak 1 at NT$ 45; peak 2 at NT$ 60; mean at NT$ 95.60
__4|_______________________________________________________________________
__3|_____________________._._______________________________________________
__2|____________________.._.________._.._._________________________________
__1|_______________.____.._.__...._.._.._._________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
在本組距內明顯出現雙峰
一在60以下
一在105以上
在60~105之間的出相數反而比較少
如是我云
這是以前市場[用猜的]
所以沒有趨近的數字
當市場開始用統計學的觀念來看的時候
即個人在此所用的觀念
這樣的情形就會改變
日後任何股票
當EPS在5.00~5.99這個組距的時候
就會開始趨近於95.60元的基準價位
理由是
大家有個依據來決定這個組距的價位
就算證期會不理會個人的呼籲
不去敦請統計學會來做這樣的分析
各家投信投顧業者
也會要求旗下的統計專家作此一分析
儘管各家投信投顧業者
依據不同的資料來做統計分析
譬如
有的投信投顧業者可能依據
所有的上市公司年報EPS來計算
也有可能別的業者
依據更大的樣本母體
而把上櫃公司也算入
更有可能還有業者
把時間點推到台灣剛剛有股市交易起算
還有可能全部以季報來算
還有以更小的組距
如0.5元來算 0.1元來算
等等等等 不一而足
可是結果卻會殊途同歸
而會決定出EPS為5.00~5.99元時
適當股價為100元上下
這就是統計學的奇妙
法國人的大發明
-----------------------------------
比較峰值的高度(T)時
當本文中
(EPS=5.00~5.99); T=__3
而前文
(EPS=4.00~4.99); T=__5
(EPS=3.00~3.99); T=_15
(EPS=2.00~2.99); T=_24
(EPS=1.00~1.99); T=_25
峰值的高度(T)一直在遞減
也就是
從[縱切面]的角度視之
這也會形成一個鐘型分配 [奶嘴形狀]
只要EPS為負值算出的話
就會更明顯
這從三維[3-dimension]的統計顯像軟體中可以看出
一般來說
統計 企管或工學出身的人
比較能夠體會我在說什麼
另外就是
從之前的組距的[高狹峰]
漸漸變成目前的[低廣峰]
而出相次數也在隨之減少中
例如本組距的出相數[number of outcomes]
只有區區25個
==================================
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
= 2390/25 = 95.60(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在5.00~5.99元時
合理股價應在95.60元上下浮動40元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
5.9|_____________________________________e_______________________________
5.8|_______________________e__________e__________________________________
5.7|___________________________e___ee_e__e_______________________________
5.6|____________________e__e_______________e_____________________________
5.5|____________________e________________________________________________
5.4|________________________________e__e_________________________________
5.3|_______________e_____e__________________________e____________________
5.2|____________________________e______e____________e____________________
5.1|_____________________e____e__________________________________________
5.0|_____________________e_e_____e_______________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_20_________1_______20
:
_45_________2_______90
_50_________3______150
:
_60_________3______180
:
_75_________1_______75
_80_________1_______80
_85_________1_______85
_90_________1_______90
:
100_________1______100
105_________2______210
:
115_________2______230
120_________2______240
:
130_________2______260
:
140_________1______140
:
220_________2______440
__________________________
___________25_____2390
-----------------------------------------
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二次更正>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
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上文中又發現錯誤:
>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
cathy20048 2005/01/31 13:32
=================================================
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_14_________1_______14
:
_30_________1_______30
_35_________3______105
_40_________5______200
_45_________4______180
_50_________4______200
_55_________2______110
_60_________5______300
_65_________2______130
_70_________4______280
_75_________4______300
_80_________3______240
_85_________3______225
_90_________1_______90
:
105_________1______105
110_________2______220
:
130_________2______260
135_________1______135
:
145_________1______145
150_________2______300
:
170_________1______170
__________________________
__________[52]____3739
==========>前文算錯為[50]次
故而應該改為
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
= 3739/[52] = [71.90](元)
連帶使得
[C]|EPS at the range of NT$ 4.00~4.99;
___|peak 1 at NT$ 40; peak 2 at NT$ 60; mean at NT$ [74.78]<===算錯
__6|_______________________________________________________________________
...
非常抱歉
特此聲明
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更正>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] XI > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
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在前文當中
>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
圖形上有個小缺點
當價位為150元時
次數為兩次
下圖以"@"代表之
__6|_______________________________________________________________________
__5|___________________.___._______________________________________________
__4|___________________..._._..____________________________________________
__3|__________________...._._....__________________________________________
__2|__________________...........____.___.___@_____________________________
__1|_____________.___.............__..___.._.._.___________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
這是因為下表所記載的:
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
[節錄]...
145_________1______145
150_________2______300=========>次數為"2"
...
======================================
其次 標題的羅馬數字有誤 [ˇ處]
__________________________________ˇ__________________
>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] IX > (EPS=3.00~3.99)
__________________________________ˇ__________________
實際應為 "V" & "IV" 才對
不過這個羅馬數字
本來就是當作[序數]來用
所以只要順著這個編序也就可以了
相信網友能夠體諒這點
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>EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] X > (EPS=4.00~4.99)
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首先更正一個有問題之處:
前文
EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] IX > (EPS=3.00~3.99)
cathy20048 2005/01/31 12:38
-----------------------------------
看得出上表的CDF[峰值]已經降低了
(EPS=1.00~1.99)時
峰值高達25H4()===========>應為[25次]
-----------------------------------
這點可由前文得證:
EPS與股價的對應關係[中數與峰值]II >(EPS=1.00~1.99)
cathy20048 2005/01/30 14:51
===================================
[C]|EPS at the range of NT$ 4.00~4.99;
___|peak 1 at NT$ 40; peak 2 at NT$ 60; mean at NT$ 74.78
__6|_______________________________________________________________________
__5|___________________.___._______________________________________________
__4|___________________..._._..____________________________________________
__3|__________________...._._....__________________________________________
__2|__________________...........____.___._________________________________
__1|_____________.___.............__..___.._.._.___________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
比較峰值的高度(T)時
當本文中
(EPS=4.00~4.99); T=__5
(EPS=3.00~3.99); T=_15
(EPS=2.00~2.99); T=_24
(EPS=1.00~1.99); T=_25
峰值的高度(T)一直在遞減
也就是
從縱切面的角度視之
這也會形成一個鐘型分配
這從三維[3-dimension]的統計顯像軟體中可以看出
一般來說
統計 企管或工學出身的人
比較能夠體會我在說什麼
另外就是
從之前的組距的[高狹峰]
漸漸變成目前的[低廣峰]
而總機率次數也在減少中
==================================
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
= 3739/50 = 74.78(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在4.00~4.99元時
合理股價應在74.78元上下浮動30元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
e= ein =1
z= zwei =2
d= drei =3
v= vier =4
f= fünf =5
s= six =6
4.9|___________________e__e_e_e___________e______________________________
4.8|____________________________e___e_______e____________________________
4.7|____________________e__e_z_______________z_e_________________________
4.6|____________________e__eee________e__________________________________
4.5|_________________e_zee____ed_________________________________________
4.4|__________________e__e_e_________e___e_______________________________
4.3|_____________e____z__e_z__e__________________________________________
4.2|____________________ee___ee__________________________________________
4.1|___________________z__e_____ee____e__e_______________________________
4.0|____________________________e____e___________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_14_________1_______14
:
_30_________1_______30
_35_________3______105
_40_________5______200
_45_________4______180
_50_________4______200
_55_________2______110
_60_________5______300
_65_________2______130
_70_________4______280
_75_________4______300
_80_________3______240
_85_________3______225
_90_________1_______90
:
105_________1______105
110_________2______220
:
130_________2______260
135_________1______135
:
145_________1______145
150_________2______300
:
170_________1______170
__________________________
___________50_____3739
-----------------------------------------
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EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] IX > (EPS=3.00~3.99)
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接續前文分析
===================================
[C]|EPS at the range of NT$ 3.00~3.99;
___|peak at NT$ 35; mean at NT$ 52.10
_15|_________________________________________________________________
_14|__________________.________________________________________________
_13|________________._._._______________________________________________
_12|________________._._._______________________________________________
_11|________________._._._______________________________________________
_10|________________._..._____________________________________________
__9|________________._..._____________________________________________
__8|________________._...____________________________________________
__7|________________._...__________________________________________
__6|________________._...._.._______________________________________
__5|________________._...._..________________________________________
__4|________________._......._.__.______________________________________
__3|_______________............__.______________________________________
__2|_______________............__.._______________________________________
__1|__________.___..................___.___.___..__________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
看得出上表的CDF[峰值]已經降低了
(EPS=1.00~1.99)時
峰值高達25H4()
附帶一提
茂矽的2004年
累積到的第三季EPS
已經達到[1.12元]
再經過減資六成一
2005年的EPS可以達到三元以上
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
=5210/100 =52.10(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在3.00~3.99元時
合理股價應在52.10元上下浮動20元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
e= ein =1
z= zwei =2
d= drei =3
v= vier =4
f= fünf =5
s= six =6
3.9|_________________eee_z__ee_e______e___________________________________
3.8|__________________ezz_e__e___e_______________________________________
3.7|__________________ee_________________________________________________
3.6|__________________ee_e______e________________________________________
3.5|_______________e_e__e_ez_e__________________e________________________
3.4|__________e_______z_eze______________________________________________
3.3|_________________dzdz_e_e______e_____________________________________
3.2|________________edzee__eze___e_e_______e___e_________________________
3.1|_______________e__z_e__ez____ee______________________________________
3.0|______________eee_zefe___ed__e_______________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數__P*T
_11_________1_______11
:
_15_________1_______15
_20_________3_______60
_25________13______325
_30_________2_______60
_35________14______490
_40________10______400
_45________13______585
_50_________6______300
_55_________4______220
_60_________6______360
_65_________6______390
_70_________5______350
_75_________3______225
_80_________1_______80
_85_________1_______85
_90_________4______360
_95_________1_______95
100_________2______200
:
120_________1______120
:
140_________1______140
:
170_________1______170
180_________1______180
__________________________
__________100_____5210
-----------------------------------------
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EPS與股價的對應關係 [中數與峰值] III > (EPS=2.00~2.99)
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===================================
[C]|EPS at the range of NT$ 2.00~2.99;
___|peak at NT$ 30; mean at NT$ 43.11
_24|__________________________________________________________________
_23|_________________.________________________________________________
_22|_________________.________________________________________________
_21|_________________.________________________________________________
_20|_________________.________________________________________________
_19|_________________.________________________________________________
_18|_________________.________________________________________________
_17|_________________.________________________________________________
_16|_________________.________________________________________________
_15|_______________._.________________________________________________
_14|_______________._.________________________________________________
_13|_______________...________________________________________________
_12|_______________...._______________________________________________
_11|_______________...._______________________________________________
_10|_______________...._._____________________________________________
__9|_______________...._._____________________________________________
__8|_______________...._..____________________________________________
__7|_______________...._.._.__________________________________________
__6|_______________......._._.________________________________________
__5|_______________......._...________________________________________
__4|_______________...........________________________________________
__3|______________............________________________________________
__2|______________............._______________________________________
__1|___________................_..__.____._________.__________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
=5259/122 =43.1065=43.11(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在2.00~2.99元時
合理股價應在43.11元上下浮動15元之間
--------------------------------------------------------
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
e= ein =1
z= zwei =2
d= drei =3
v= vier =4
f= fünf =5
s= six =6
2.9|_________________de_____e____________________________________________
2.8|_________________v__ee_z____e________e_______________________________
2.7|____________e____z__zeze__e__________________________________________
2.6|______________eeeezzeze_ze___________________________________________
2.5|______________e_d__zze___e______e____________________________________
2.4|_____________e__eez__d___e___e_______________________________________
2.3|______________eeevz_z__ezz___________________________________________
2.2|_______________dvfdzzeez_e___________________________________________
2.1|_______________vzzz_______e____________________e_____________________
2.0|___________e___eee_____ee____________________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
---------------------------------------
P,價位[元]_T,次數_____P*T
_12_________1_______12
_13_________1_______13
_14_________1_______14
_15_________3_______45
_20________15______300
_25________13______325
_30________23______690
_35________12______420
_40_________6______240
_45________10______450
_50_________8______400
_55_________4______220
_60_________7______420
_65_________5______325
_70_________6______420
_75_________2______150
_80_________0________0
_85_________1_______85
_90_________1_______90
_95_________0________0
100_________0________0
105_________1______105
130_________1______130
210_________1______210
__________________________
__________122_____5259
-----------------------------------------
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更正>EPS與股價的對應關係[中數與峰值]II >(EPS=1.00~1.99)
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一˙
更正確地說
應該以中數作為[基準值]
故而
當EPS在0.00~0.99元時
績優股的合理股價[基準值]
應在23.62元上下10元之間
當EPS在1.00~1.99元時
績優股的合理股價[基準值]
應在27.83元上下10元之間
附帶一提
茂矽的2004年
累積到的第三季EPS
已經達到[1.12元]
再經過減資
2005年的EPS可以達到三元以上
二˙
前文
===================================
P,價位[元]__T,次數_____P*T
__2__________1__________2
__9__________1__________9
_10__________2_________20
_12__________3_________36
_13__________1_________13
_14_________15________210
_15_________25________375
_20_________25________500
_25_________20________500
_30_________19________570
_35__________7________245
_40__________8________320
_45__________7________315
_50__________4________200
_55__________2________110
_60__________1_________60
_75__________3________225
_80__________2________160
110__________1________110
140__________1________140
________________________________________________
___________148_______4120
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EPS與股價的對應關係[中數與峰值]II >(EPS=1.00~1.99)
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首先要對前文
EPS與股價的對應關係[中數與峰值]
cathy20048 2005/01/30 12:33
作一補充與更正:
一˙進行描點的[次數]來自對下文的圖中的次數統計:
>股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
為了證明次數
本文將附帶次數統計於文末
二˙前文的統計範圍是[0.00~0.99]元 前文寫成0~1元的緣故在此
三˙本文的統計範圍是[1.00~1.99]元
===================================
[B]|EPS at the range of NT$ 1.00~1.99;
___|peak 1 at NT$ 15;peak 2 at NT$ 20; mean at NT$ 27.83
_26|______________________________________________________________
_25|______________..________________________________________________
_24|______________..________________________________________________
_23|______________..________________________________________________
_22|______________..________________________________________________
_21|______________..________________________________________________
_20|______________...________________________________________________
_19|______________....________________________________________________
_18|______________....________________________________________________
_17|______________....________________________________________________
_16|______________....________________________________________________
_15|_____________....._________________________________________________
_14|_____________....._________________________________________________
_13|_____________....._________________________________________________
_12|_____________....._________________________________________________
_11|_____________....._________________________________________________
_10|_____________....._________________________________________________
__9|_____________....._________________________________________________
__8|_____________....._.________________________________________________
__7|_____________........_________________________________________________
__6|_____________........_________________________________________________
__5|_____________........_________________________________________________
__4|_____________........._________________________________________________
__3|___________._.........____.______________________________________________
__2|_________._._..........___..________________________________________
__1|_.______.._.............__.._____._____.___________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
Σ(P*T)/ΣT =>見下表
= 4120/148 = 27.83(元)
可以這麼說
故而當績優股的EPS在0~1元時
合理股價應在20~27.83元之間
[15元則低於0~1元的合理股價20~23.62元]
===================================
P,價位[元]______T,次數__________P*T
2 1 2
9 1 9
10 2 20
12 3 36
13 1 13
14 15 210
15 25 375
20 25 500
25 20 500
30 19 570
35 7 245
40 8 320
45 7 315
50 4 200
55 2 110
60 1 60
75 3 225
80 2 160
110 1 110
140 1 140
________________________________________________
148 4120
股價與EPS的直線回歸方程式 [製表] I====>[部分]
cathy20048 2005/01/28 21:13
e= ein =1
z= zwei =2
d= drei =3
v= vier =4
f= fünf =5
s= six =6
1.9|_______________ezze__e_______________________________________________
1.8|____________e_efdz__z________________________________________________
1.7|______________eezseveee____e_________________________________________
1.6|______________zzeze______________e___________________________________
1.5|_______________dz_ez______e__________________________________________
1.4|______________zzfzdee_e______________________________________________
1.3|______________ezed_________e___________e_____________________________
1.2|____________zeze_e__e_____z__________________________________________
1.1|__e______ee___dvd__ezz_______________________________________________
1.0|__________e___dvee_____e_____________________________________________
___________________________________1_1_1_1_1_111112222222222333333333344556
_____________1____12_3_4_5_6_7_8_9_0_1_2_3_4_567890123456789012345678905050
___012345678901234505050505050505050505050505000000000000000000000000000000
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