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川普觀察：爛人爛事錄 -- 開欄文
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2025/02/12 16:31 瀏覽893 ｜回應14｜推薦2 |
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《中國整鍋端》小評
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2025/03/12 14:40 推薦1 |
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本欄上一篇貼文作者布魯門陶(卜大年)博士算是少壯派的「中國通」。這篇文章很有些意思。
1) 作者是美國前景研究協會的資深研究員；該協會是保守派的重量級智庫。布魯門陶博士不但沒有加入川普的啦啦隊，反而想藉恐嚇後者來勸他改絃更張。可見代誌大條了。
2) 布魯門陶博士把習總說得像個「地緣政治」天才；相形之下，無意間把川痞的低能放大了。
不過，痞、瘋歸痞、瘋，川某倒也不是被嚇大的；他可是靠著唬人發家(請見本欄2025/03/03貼文)。看來，布魯門陶博士的建議不落個忠言逆耳，也形同對牛彈琴；甚至於把川某激怒，做出：「老子就是不信這個邪！」的決定，硬是要一條路走到黑。
川某徹底搞臭美國信用的後果(該欄開欄文第2節)，路人皆知，無需多所著墨。但就俄、烏戰局而言，我的看法略有不同。
我曾指出：對歐洲國家來說，俄國鯨吞烏克蘭是一個「存在危機」；請見：危機1--該欄20254/03/03、危機2--該欄2024/12/06(《小評》第2-1)小節)、危機3--該欄2024/06/01等。俗話說：「兔子急了也會咬人」，何況只是在「扮豬」的眾多歐洲二流國家。
從這一欄的各篇報導和分析可以看出：
1) 美國的軍援和其它方式的支持，並不是決定俄、烏戰局的主要因素，更不是唯一因素。
2) 到目前為止，歐洲國家擺出了「背水一戰」的姿態。我相信：即使沒有美國支持，烏克蘭雖然沒有勝算，但應該能夠再苦撐個兩、三年，拖到普丁先混不下去。
從而，川痞曲尊舔普丁的屁股並不會導致世局豬羊變色。
美國的一眾領袖、官員、學者、名嘴等等，不知道，或裝做不知道，或沒有勇氣面對以下這個「現實」：
美國已經不再是全球霸主；美國總統坐在白宮內說三道四、指手畫腳、或發個X簡訊決定不了國際政治的走向。
美國阿呆榜上所列舉官員、學者、名嘴的荒謬在於：
他/她們認為(自欺欺人？)川普說話就跟板上釘釘一樣。
布魯門陶博士的無知則在於：
他以為全球都圍著川普打轉；川普說不開伙，全世界的人都挨餓。
本文於 2025/03/12 18:56 修改第 3 次
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中國整鍋端 - D. Blumenthal
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2025/03/11 09:49 推薦1 |
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布魯門陶(卜大年)博士算是中生代的「中國通」。這篇文章很有些意思。稍後我會略做評論。
How China Could ‘Win’ the War in Ukraine and Dominate Asia
Dan Blumenthal, 03/10/25
A fracturing of the United States-NATO alliance and a Russia-favorable resolution of the war in Ukraine would represent a significant strategic victory for Xi Jinping, the apotheosis of an alliance sealed by Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Beijing Olympics in 2022.
But their 2024 pledge of a “new era” between the two powers is about more than the support that is helping Russia sustain its war in Ukraine; fundamentally, it is about diminishing the American dominance that prevailed after World War II and ushering in a new global writ, authored and underpinned by Chinese power. “The world is going through changes unseen in a hundred years,” Xi told Putin at the BRICS summit. And, he might have added, we are delighted.
Thinking Beyond the Ukraine War: The Impact on Asia and Beyond
Putin’s 2022 march on Ukraine was a signal Xi was quick to exploit: a “once in a century” opportunity, he believed, to hasten the inevitable decline of the West and build a new world order helmed by Beijing. Xi embraced the Russian dictator’s upending of the post-World War II order, helping to sustain Moscow’s onslaught with critical dual-use inputs, such as microelectronics, precision machine tools, spare parts, titanium and magnesium alloys, and chemical inputs for munitions production and components essential for weapons manufacturing. China has also buttressed Russia’s economy in the face of international sanctions, purchasing energy and increasing trade to record levels.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s formidable informational and propaganda arms promote Russian narratives that blame the United States and NATO for the war. For these reasons, NATO has identified China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war efforts, without whose support the war could not continue.
Though on its face, the Xi-Putin alliance appears transactional and opportunistic, there are deeper shared goals that should sound alarm bells in Europe and the United States. A swift end to American support for Ukraine, hastening the war’s end on terms favorable to Russia, will be the payoff for Xi’s big bet on Putin. Just as Ukraine’s Western supporters have argued forcefully that a victory for Kyiv will be a warning shot across Beijing’s bow – a sign that there are profound risks in attacking, for example, Taiwan – the converse is also true.
In supporting Russian aggression, China will have helped validate arguments that NATO is a force in decline and that the era dominated by the US alliance system is in eclipse. The door, Xi will crow, has opened to a reshaping of borders and alliances through territorial conquest.
The Taiwan Nightmare
If China’s tactical investment in Russia becomes a strategic victory for America’s most powerful adversaries, a new geostrategic chapter will open. Chinese propaganda arms will work overtime to persuade Taiwan, the Philippines, and other key Asian territories in Beijing’s gunsights that the United States is an unreliable partner.
Others who enjoy a US security commitment – an actual treaty in the case of Japan – will face an onslaught of pressure to weaken their tie with the US.
China will quickly test the strength of the American commitment, escalating provocations like Chinese warships off Australia’s coast or in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and surrounding waters. Xi will ask America’s friends whether they wish to become the next Ukraine—bloodied and ultimately abandoned.
Nor will the repercussions for the United States and US interests end there. European leaders who were slowly hardening their position on China’s menace will be focused on managing a triumphant Putin and deterring further Russian aggression in the Baltics. Their focus on Beijing will falter, and Xi will encourage separate arrangements, offering enticements to Germany to hedge its transatlantic bets.
The odds of a two or even three-front war will increase most alarmingly. Should Beijing decide to escalate its comprehensive coercion campaign in Asia and start a full-scale war, China will undoubtedly call in the debt Russia owes it by urging Moscow to make moves on Baltic states already in Putin’s sights.
To darken matters even further, North Korea, to whom Russia is also indebted, will almost certainly prod Moscow to destabilize Eastern Europe should Pyongyang decide to open another war front on the Korean peninsula.
How Trump Can Stop A ‘Doomsday’ Scenario for Asia
These doomsday scenarios can still be forestalled if the Trump administration persuades the Kremlin that its interests are in a peaceful outcome to Putin’s war on Ukraine. Before the Oval Office blowout, Trump had made security and economic assurances to Kyiv. Suppose Trump indeed manages to scare Europe into spending adequately on its defense while properly arming Ukraine such that peace can be enforced and war in Eastern Europe can be deterred.
In that case, he will substantially improve America’s security position in Eurasia. If US assistance to Ukraine resumes – paid for however Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump arrange – the United States will restore the deterrence leeching away in recent years.
If financial concerns are central to the Trump calculus, there are $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets in Europe. Confiscating those funds would send a clear signal to Beijing, not about future opportunities but about the profound risk of trying to upend the current global order.
No matter what, there is a zero-sum game afoot: Should Moscow prevail, the reins will be off Beijing, and the challenges to the United States will escalate dramatically. Conversely, if Trump can secure just peace, there will be recalculations in Beijing. It seems obvious which is the better choice for the United States.
Dan Blumenthal is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on East Asian security issues and Sino-American relations. Mr. Blumenthal has served in and advised the US government on China issues for more than a decade. Before joining AEI, Mr. Blumenthal served as senior director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the US Department of Defense. He served as a commissioner on the congressionally mandated US-China Economic and Security Review Commission from 2006 to 2012, and he was vice chairman of the commission in 2007. He also served on the Academic Advisory Board of the congressional US-China Working Group.
本文於 2025/03/11 09:50 修改第 1 次
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川普國會報告分析 ---- David Knowles
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2025/03/06 17:25 推薦1 |
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另請參考：
‘It Was 90-Plus Minutes of Bad Moments’: 9 Opinion Writers on Trump’s Address to Congress。
5 takeaways from Trump's record-setting speech to Congress。
5 takeaways from Trump's record-setting speech to Congress
The president again pressed for the U.S. to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.
David Knowles, Editor, 03/05/25
President Trump delivered his first joint address of his second term to a sharply divided Congress on Tuesday, using a combative speech to boast about a slew of executive orders he has signed in a bid to reshape the federal government and to lay out the legislative priorities he hopes to pass with aid of the Republicans who applauded his every line.
“Six weeks ago, I stood beneath the dome of this Capitol and proclaimed the dawn of the golden age of America,” Trump said in what turned out to be the longest joint session speech in U.S. history by any president. “From that moment on, it has been nothing but swift and unrelenting action to usher in the greatest and most successful era in the history of our country. We have accomplished more in 43 days than most administrations accomplished in four years, eight years — and we are just getting started.”
Here are five key takeaways from Tuesday’s speech.
Boasting of executive orders and praise for Elon Musk
Trump sought to frame the first months of his second as historic and efficient.
“Over the past six weeks, I have signed nearly 100 executive orders and taken more than 400 executive actions to restore common sense, safety, optimism and wealth all across our wonderful land,” Trump said.
Those have included a freeze on all U.S. foreign aid, the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris climate accord, the rescinding of electric vehicle incentives passed under former President Joe Biden as part of the Inflation Reduction Act and the implementation of sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.
Trump said a major goal of his administration was “ending the flagrant waste of taxpayer dollars.”
“To that end, I have created the brand new Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, perhaps you’ve heard of it, which is headed by Elon Musk, who is in the gallery tonight,” he added.
Musk’s role may be news to a federal judge hearing cases regarding the mass firings of government workers who demanded to know who was in charge of DOGE and were told that person was Amy Gleason, who previously worked at the U.S. Digital Service.
Trump proceeded to reel off a list of "appalling waste” Musk and his team had identified, though none of that could be immediately verified and past claims of uncovering fraud have turned out to be overstated.
No details on how to lower the price of eggs
Despite a campaign pledge to bring grocery prices down “on day one” of his administration, the price of eggs has continued to rise dramatically under his presidency due primarily to the slaughter of millions of chickens to stem the spread of bird flu.
"Joe Biden especially let the price of eggs get out of control. The egg price is out of control, and we’re working hard to get it back down,” Trump said. “[Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins], do a good job on that. You inherited a total mess from the previous administration.”
The agency that Rollins runs estimates that egg prices could rise by more than 40% in 2025.
Rep. Al Green removed from House chamber after interrupting Trump
While Trump repeatedly went after those Democrats who attended his speech, saying there was nothing he could do to make them happy, notable moments of protest emerged.
Rep. Al Green, a Democrat from Texas, stood early in the speech and heckled the president. That led to a rebuke from House Speaker Mike Johnson, but Green continued to shout Trump down.
“You have no mandate!” he yelled.
Johnson then instructed the House sergeant at arms to remove him from the chamber as Trump’s Republican backers chanted “USA! USA!”
Some Democrats held signs up during Trump’s remarks, some with the word “Lies” printed on them, others read “Save Medicare,” and many members of the party saw fit to exit the speech before it was finished.
“In just half an hour, he spewed ignorance on everything from diversity, immigration and trans kids to DOGE cuts and the cost of eggs,” Rep. LaMonica McIver of New Jersey said in a statement after walking out on the speech.
Eyeing Greenland and Panama
Trump continued to press his plan to expand U.S. territorial holdings.
“The Panama Canal was built by Americans for Americans, not for others, but others could use it. But it was built at tremendous cost of American blood and treasure. Thirty-eight thousand workers died building the Panama Canal,” Trump said, adding, “We’re taking it back.”
“We have Marco Rubio in charge. Good luck, Marco,” he continued. The canal is currently managed and operated by the Panamanian-government-owned Panama Canal Authority.
Trump then moved on to his next already-spoken-for conquest: Greenland.
“I also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security and we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it.”
Despite the fact that Greenland is a territory of Denmark whose prime minister has repeatedly stated that the island is not for sale, Trump assured his audience otherwise.
“I think we’re going to get it — one way or the other we’re going to get it,” he said.
Ukraine peace deal not dead?
Despite a contentious White House meeting last week with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that resulted in accusations that Trump had sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said Tuesday that a deal to end the war was still possible.
“Earlier today I received an important letter from President Zelensky of Ukraine,” Trump said. “The letter reads, ‘Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians,’”
“I appreciate that he sent this letter,” Trump said, adding that his administration had been conducting simultaneous negotiations with Russia and has received strong signals that they are ready for peace.
本文於 2025/03/06 17:26 修改第 1 次
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美國阿呆榜
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2025/03/06 11:35 推薦2 |
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川普參眾兩院聯席會議報告 – M. D. Shear等
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2025/03/05 14:06 推薦2 |
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Live Updates: Trump Asserts Term Off to ‘Swift and Unrelenting’ Start in Speech to Congress
Speaking to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump highlighted the many actions his administration has taken in the past six weeks, including drastic cuts to the federal work force and the eradication of diversity initiatives.
Michael D. Shear and Luke Broadwater, 03/04/25
Also：Haiyun Jiang/Kenny Holston/Doug Mills/ Eric Lee for The New York Times
Highlights：
On the Economy
On Democrats
On Ukraine
Elon Musk
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
On Prosecutions
Representative Rashida Tlaib
Representative Al Green
Green Is Removed From Chamber
On the English Languag
On the Panama Canal and Greenland
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Melania Trump
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene
Supreme Court Justices
President Trump faced heckling from Democrats on Tuesday as he declared that “America is back,” delivering an address to Congress in which he boasted about his efforts to reshape the government and taunted his adversaries with references to his political and legal triumphs.
In the longest ever presidential address to Congress, Mr. Trump appeared to cool tensions from a blowup last week with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, reading aloud a message of gratitude that Mr. Zelensky had posted on social media earlier in the day. Mr. Trump said that he appreciated the message, and that he had also received “strong signals” from Russia that it was eager for peace with Ukraine.
“Wouldn’t that be beautiful? Wouldn’t that be beautiful?” Mr. Trump said.
Democrats barely applauded during Mr. Trump’s visit to the chamber, while Republicans enthusiastically cheered. From the speech’s first moments, when Al Green, a Democratic lawmaker from Texas, repeatedly yelled, “You don’t have a mandate,” and refused to sit down, the deep divisions in Congress and the country were on display.
“The people sitting right here will not clap, will not stand, and certainly will not cheer for these astronomical achievements,” Mr. Trump said, referring to Democrats in the chamber. “They won’t do it no matter what.”
In an extraordinary move, Speaker Mike Johnson ordered Mr. Green removed from the chamber. There have been other outbursts during presidential speeches in recent years, including by Republican Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia during the Biden administration and Joe Wilson of South Carolina during the Obama administration. Both remained in the chamber after interrupting the president.
Just days after threatening to abandon a European ally at war and hours after kicking off a trade war that rattled global economies, Mr. Trump offered no new policy proposals and repeatedly denigrated former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and mocked Democrats for their inability to stand in the way of his agenda.
“Six weeks ago, I stood beneath the dome of this Capitol and proclaimed the dawn of the Golden Age of America,” Mr. Trump said, repeatedly appearing to veer from his prepared remarks. “From that moment on, it has been nothing but swift and unrelenting action to usher in the greatest and most successful era in the history of our country.”
The president did not dwell on foreign policy, though he again expressed his concern about Chinese control of the Panama Canal and his desire to take over Greenland. He announced that the United States had apprehended a terrorist who organized the bombing of the Abbey Gate during the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
Mr. Trump spent much of the speech telling the stories of Americans he invited to watch his address in the gallery, including the victims of violent immigrants and a boy with cancer who dreamed of becoming a police officer. Mr. Trump announced that the 13-year-old boy had been made an honorary Secret Service agent.
Throughout, he appeared to obsess over his political rivals. At one point, he motioned to Democrats, saying the system of justice in the country had been taken over by “radical left lunatics.” In response, progressive members of the party held up panels that said “False” and “That’s a lie.”
A number of Democrats staged a small protest, standing up and turning their backs toward Mr. Trump in T-shirts that said “resist” on the back. Instead of risking being removed by the sergeant-at-arms, the group quietly walked off the House floor.
Mr. Trump accused Democrats of ignoring the “common sense revolution” that he and his administration had begun to implement. He addressed his opponents in the audience with contempt, gloating about his election victory, mocked them for his ability to evade prosecutions and called Mr. Biden the worst president in American history.
At one point, the president compared the treatment he received on the internet to the victims of revenge porn, saying “nobody gets treated worse than I do online.”
Mr. Trump claimed falsely that he had inherited an “economic catastrophe” from Mr. Biden. In fact, the United States had the strongest economy in the world when Mr. Trump took over, but it has been showing signs of strain in recent weeks from federal funding cuts and tariffs enacted by Mr. Trump.
The president also focused on what he claimed was fraud in the federal bureaucracy discovered by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency. For several minutes, Mr. Trump listed off foreign aid and diversity programs that his government had eliminated, mocking them as unnecessary.
“Eight million to promote L.G.B.T.Q.+ in the African nation of Lesotho, which nobody has ever heard of,” the president said.
House Republican leaders have advised their members to stop holding in-person town halls amid a torrent of large-scale protests targeting some of the budget cuts Mr. Musk is overseeing. Even so, a number of Republican lawmakers jumped to their feet and cheered as the president referred to Mr. Musk, who was sitting in the gallery.
As he has in past speeches, Mr. Trump repeated false and exaggerated claims throughout the speech, prompting reactions from the Democrats in the chamber.
“That’s not true,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said quietly, shaking her head as Mr. Trump ticked through debunked claims about the impossible ages of people collecting Social Security. Republicans, in contrast, cracked up and one yelled out “Joe Biden” when Trump asserted that someone on Social Security was older than 300.
Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan delivered the Democratic rebuttal from the town of Wyandotte, a place that she said both she and Mr. Trump won in November. She began by saying that Americans wanted “change” but adding that there were two ways to go about it, one responsible and one reckless, and that Mr. Trump had chosen the second way.
Mr. Trump, the senator said, said he had authorized an “unprecedented giveaway to his billionaire friends,” and risked steering the country into a recession. She warned that he could endanger Social Security, invoking Mr. Musk’s description of the program as a “Ponzi scheme,” and urged Americans to remain engaged in the face of Mr. Trump’s divisive agenda.
本文於 2025/03/12 07:13 修改第 2 次
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川普協商技術不是一般的爛 -- Chris Truax
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2025/03/03 14:28 推薦1 |
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我同意這篇評論的分析 ；例如，作者在下文倒數第2段指出：
在短短幾個星期內，川普搞砸了美國八十年來所建立的「信用」和「影響力」。
本欄開欄文和上一篇拙作都強調類似看法。如我所說，川普就是個「痞子+瘋子」(開欄文)。
此外，作者相當了解川普的罩門何在。
Why Trump’s strategy of negotiation through intimidation is a losing one
Chris Truax, opinion contributor, 02/28/25
President Trump is actually quite a bad negotiator. To understand the president’s negotiation style, ignore his ghost-written “Art of The Deal” and take a look at a book called “Winning Through Intimidation.” Though it’s largely forgotten now, it was a bestseller when originally published back in 1973.
The book — written by a real estate broker — has a simple message. There are two kinds of people in the business world: the people who get screwed over and the people who do the screwing. The No.1 reason people get taken advantage of is that they get intimidated by the other side.
So, if you want good deals, you should be intimidating. And the best way to do that, according to this book, is by cultivating an intimidating image, being aggressive and taking extreme negotiating positions.
If you had to sum up Trump’s negotiating style in one sentence, this would be it.
The irony is that the book also cautions against being intimidated by other negotiators, a lesson Trump hasn’t learned. Trump is regularly intimidated by those he perceives as more wealthy or more powerful. How else do you explain his public deference to Elon Musk or his fawning over Vladimir Putin?
On top of that, Trump is too emotional and too easily manipulated to be a good negotiator. Even his supporters admit that. For example, JD Vance cautioned Volodymyr Zelensky not to criticize Trump, saying, “The idea that Zelensky is going to change the president’s mind by badmouthing him in public media … everyone who knows the president will tell you that is an atrocious way to deal with this administration.”
Think about that for a moment. Trump is trying to negotiate a deal in one of the biggest, most dangerous conflicts that currently exist on the planet. And Vance, his own vice president, is cautioning everyone to tread carefully, because the president of the United States might go off half-cocked and do something foolish if he gets mad.
That’s not the kind of person you want taking the lead in a high-stakes negotiation — or any negotiation, really.
But Donald Trump’s biggest flaw as a negotiator is that he’s only got one speed. It’s like the old joke about how if you’re a carpenter, every problem is a nail and every solution is a hammer. A good negotiator recognizes that different situations call for different approaches. Trump, however, treats everything like a one-off deal with someone he wants to squeeze as hard as he possibly can.
Trump’s efforts to strong-arm Zelensky into an agreement that would hand the U.S. a 50 percent interest in the Ukrainian economy in exchange for nothing at all is an excellent example of this negotiating style. Trump combined an outrageous opening offer with threats to punish Ukraine if Zelensky didn’t immediately accept his terms. When Zelensky balked, Trump attacked him personally, claiming Ukraine had started the war and that he was an unelected dictator whom everybody in Ukraine hated.
That’s an utterly shameful way to treat an ally and a friend, but neither of those words have a meaning in Trump’s taxonomy. For Trump, there are only people you can bully and people you can’t.
Don’t get me wrong — I’m not criticizing Trump here from a moral perspective but from an economic one. There are situations where you really can get the highest return from being obnoxious and ruthlessly exploiting your negotiating partner. But there are other situations, especially when you will have to deal with that person again, where scorched-earth negotiating imposes huge costs down the line.
That’s the problem with what Trump is trying to do to American allies like Canada. It’s easy to get a great deal out of someone who trusts and relies on you — once. But after you abuse that relationship, they will take steps to make sure they are never in that position again.
The perception that America is a trusted partner whose positions and alliances don’t depend on who won the last election has made us both safer and richer. But by suddenly turning on our allies, Trump is burning through 80 years of carefully built-up American trust and influence in a few weeks. This may get him a couple of “good deals” in the short term, but at what price?
Trump is trying to manage foreign relations the same way he used to do real estate deals. But on the international stage, there are wide-ranging consequences that can’t be reduced to dollars and cents. Trump thinks he can slap a “for sale” sign on everything from Ukraine to Gaza. But some things aren’t about property values. They’re just about values. The shining city on a hill is not just real estate.
Chris Truax is an appellate attorney who served as Southern California chair for John McCain’s primary campaign in 2008. 0000000000 0
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本文於 2025/03/03 14:28 修改第 1 次
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《當今的自由世界需要一位「新」領袖》小評
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2025/03/02 12:22 推薦1 |
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從本欄上一篇關於《新領袖》的報導，可見我對「澤倫斯基底氣」第一個「來源」的判斷還算正確(本欄2025/03/01《小評》)。它也旁證我就澤倫斯基「言談行為」第一個「目的」所做推測，至少說得上八九不離十(同上)。
做為歐盟外交政策首席規劃，卡拿絲女士：「當今的自由世界需要一位『新』領袖」的發言，不但完全不符合「外交辭令」的最低規範，她甚至把最基本的國際禮儀也棄若蔽屣；或許她比我更瞧不起這位現任美國總統。歐洲各國領袖雖然沒有群起而攻川普，但他/她們支持澤倫斯基的言談行動，明顯在狠打前者的臉。因此，川普自以為從電視看他佔了口舌上的便宜，在現實生活中他可是丟人丟大發了。不僅如此，「美國總統」這個職位的尊嚴和高度，也在不到一個半月內被川普消費得精光(開欄文第1.2節)。
更諷刺的是：
冷戰1.0期間，美、蘇劍拔弩張，全球對恃；至少兩次導致人類面臨核戰邊緣(1)。三十年後進入當前的冷戰2.0，美、俄領袖居然上了床，更打得火熱、火熱。馬克思下面這段話還真是神來之筆：
「黑格爾在某個地方做了以下評論：『偉大事件和偉大人物可以說都會在歷史舞台上出現兩次』。但他忘了補充一句：『第一次是悲劇形式；第二次則成了鬧劇』」(2)。
附註：
1. 第一次(1962)、第二次(1983)。
2. 原文英譯版："Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce." (The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte；此處是我根據以上英文所做的翻譯。)
本文於 2025/03/03 00:49 修改第 3 次
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當今的自由世界需要一位「新」領袖 - Christian Oliver等
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2025/03/02 07:50 推薦1 |
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請參見本欄上兩篇貼文。
‘Free world needs a new leader’: Europe defends Zelenskyy after Trump attack
France, Germany and Poland all make prompt declarations of support as Europe fears Trump’s alignment with Putin.
Christian Oliver, Giovanna Faggionato, Victor Goury-Laffont and Max Griera, 02/28/25
BRUSSELS ― European leaders on Friday rallied to defend Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after United States President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance subjected him to a tirade of withering and infantilizing abuse in the Oval Office.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said: “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”
In what may prove a significant turning point in the tottering postwar Western alliance between Europe and the United States, the Europeans pushed back against Washington’s increasing alignment with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Trump's browbeating of Zelenskyy.
“There is an aggressor, which is Russia and a people who have suffered aggression, which is Ukraine,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, hitting back at Trump’s attempts to treat the two sides evenly. “You have to respect those who have been fighting since the beginning because they are fighting for their dignity, their independence, for their children, and for the security of Europe.”
Macron also noted that the U.S. had not been the only country to support Kyiv, stressing that it was also backed by European countries, Canada and Japan.
In the Oval Office, Trump told Zelenskyy his refusal to concede to Russia at the negotiating table was “gambling with World War III.”
Later, Macron told Portuguese television: “If someone is playing World War III, his name is Vladimir Putin.”
Major rift
Germany's almost-certain next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, struck a similar tone addressing a tweet directly to "Dear Volodymyr" in which he vowed to stand with Ukraine “in good and in testing times.”
Over the past weeks, Europe has been steeling itself for a major rift with Washington over Trump’s hectoring treatment of Ukraine and its leader.
While European leaders have been pushing for a comprehensive deal in which the U.S. would offer postwar security guarantees, Trump has resisted such suggestions and has concentrated his efforts on boasting that he can get Ukraine — rather than Russia — to repay America for aid through a deal on critical raw materials.
Leaving little doubt of his preference for Putin over Zelenskyy, Trump slammed the Ukrainian leader as a “dictator” while hailing Russia's leader as trustworthy. Trump has also adopted the Kremlin’s positions that Kyiv should not join NATO and should give up invaded land.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk sent a message to Zelenskyy insisting, “Dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone,” while the office of Sweden's prime minister said: “You are not only fighting for your freedom but also for all of Europe’s.”
The Czech Republic, Spain, Latvia and Lithuania all sent similar messages of support.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted: “Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President@ZelenskyyUa.” In coordinated communication, the presidents of the European Council and Parliament sent out the same message.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever stressed that his country stood behind Ukraine, saying “their fight is our fight,” while Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp underlined support for Ukraine would come in the form of “whatever it takes, for as long as it takes.”
Italy’s hard-right leader Giorgia Meloni, a close Trump ally, called on Europeans not to allow deep divisions to open up with Washington and said Rome would, in the hours ahead, call for an EU-U.S. summit to get diplomacy back on track.
“What is needed is an immediate summit between the United States, European states, and allies to talk frankly about how we intend to deal with the great challenges of today, starting with Ukraine, which together we have defended in recent years,” she said.
As it is, some European leaders will meet among themselves in London on Sunday at the invitation of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Zelenskyy is due to join them. A spokesperson for Starmer said he'd spoken to Zelenskyy and Trump on Friday night.
Starmer “retains unwavering support for Ukraine,” the spokesperson said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán took the opposite approach, thanking Trump for standing “bravely for peace."
“Strong men make peace, weak men make war,” Orbán posted on X.
Rasmus Buchsteiner, Hanne Cokelaere, Max Griera Andreu, Jan Cienski, Hans von der Burchard, Pieter Haeck and Seb Starcevic contributed reporting.
本文於 2025/03/02 07:58 修改第 3 次
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《川普、澤倫斯基打嘴砲》小評
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2025/03/01 19:15 推薦1 |
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澤倫斯基顯然在故意挑戰或激怒川普；這是典型的「破罐子破摔」策略；或者美國人習慣說的：「狗急跳牆」。我認為英國主流媒體對此事的評論未免過於膚淺(請見本欄上一篇)。例如，史學家畢夏普教授在《每日郵報》上撰文認為：「(烏克蘭)只能步履蹣跚的再撐幾個月」(1) ；這是只知其一，不知其二的青蛙見識。在我看來，俄國情況和烏克蘭的相比，頂多不過五十步跟一百二十五步而已。
澤倫斯基的目的(或其策略)有二：
1) 把川普做小；讓歐洲各國領袖了解川普並非「真神」，大家不必唯命是從。
2) 他知道川普不但毫無信用，還會得寸進尺；與其等到退無可退再翻臉(到了那個地步可能為時已晚)，不如現在堅持底線，背水一戰。
澤倫斯基的底氣來自：：
a. 他知道歐洲國家不可能坐視俄國在這場角力中全勝而歸；美國之外，烏克蘭不但還有歐洲國家可以倚仗，一旦戰爭全面爆發，美國遲早被北約其它會員國拖下水。
b. 「沒鞋子穿的人」碰上「穿鞋子的人」總有/裝得出一股輸人不輸陣的氣勢。
川、澤倫斯基口水戰之後，全世界都看得出：只有川普自己覺得他不可一世。這個事件以後，大家不妨等著看川普更多的笑話。
請參看川、澤會議視頻。
附註：
1. “Writing in the Daily Mail, the historian David Bishop says the ‘… would mean Kyiv could only "stagger on for a few months.’"
本文於 2025/03/01 19:15 修改第 1 次
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川普、澤倫斯基打嘴砲 - BBC
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2025/03/01 17:04 推薦1 |
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