Chinese holdings of U.S. federal debt hit a new record high toward the end of 2013. We should probably be grateful.
At the end of November (the latest data available), China held $1,317,000,000,000 in U.S. Treasury securities. If all those zeroes make your head swim, that’s about $1.32 trillion, which exceeds the prior record, from 2011. China has been the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt since 2008, when it overtook Japan, which is now No. 2.
Chinese holdings of U.S. debt strike some people as a national-security vulnerability, but that’s largely a myth fed by fear-mongering xenophobes. For one thing, the debt held by China only amounts to about 7.6% of the entire $17.2 trillion in U.S. debt. About two-thirds of the national debt is held in the United States, with roughly 45% of that held by government trust funds and other federal agencies, much of it taxpayer money slated to be spent on Social Security and other entitlements. Overall, Uncle Sam’s portfolio of creditors is pretty well diversified.
Borrowing from all sources, including China, also helps Washington pay for more programs than Americans finance on their own through taxes. A trenchant irony of China’s lending to the United States is it helps pay for aircraft carriers, fighter jets, missiles and other military hardware that would menace China if there were ever a standoff between the two nations.
"One big pot of cash"
Funds from China also help pay for Medicare, highways, education grants, prisons, food stamps and most other things the federal government spends money on. A few programs — most notably, Social Security — have a dedicated source of funding. Medicare is partly funded that way, but money for some parts of the popular healthcare program for seniors comes from the Treasury Department’s general fund. For the most part, money from taxes and borrowing goes into the same pool at the Treasury, with no distinctions on how dollars from different sources are spent. “Whether the payments are derived from debt or taxes, it’s all one big pot of cash,” says Deborah Lucas, a finance professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.
China’s holdings of U.S. debt may actually be a bigger worry for China than for America. “When people ask ‘how bad would it be for the United States if China withdrew its money,’ the answer is, 'how bad would it be for China if the United States went bankrupt?'” says Richard Kogan of the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “China has a big stake in the solvency of the United States. They want us to pay all their principal and interest and keep buying the stuff they make.”
There’s little or no evidence, in fact, that China’s foreign-debt holdings have ever been used for political purposes. China mostly invests its reserves the way any nation seeking financial stability would.
The vast scale of borrowing by the U.S. government is a different story altogether and a legitimate worry. Washington has made halting progress on its debt recently, with the annual deficit dropping from $1.1 trillion in 2012 to $680 billion in 2013. That should fall to about $560 billion this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, and perhaps lower if the economy exceeds expectations and tax revenues rise.
There’s still no plan, however, for addressing federal budget gaps that are expected to explode starting around 2020, as spending on retiring baby boomers skyrockets. With luck, China will still have a lot of money to invest by then — and remain in an accommodating mood.
外匯
中國如何幫助支付醫療保險,美國航母
中國持有的美國聯邦債務創下新的紀錄高朝2013年年底。我們也許應該感謝。
截至十一月(可獲得的最新數據)的年底,中國在美國國債持有$ 1,317,000,000,000 。如果所有這些零讓你的頭游泳,那是大約13200億美元,這超過了以往的記錄,從2011年。自2008年以來,當它超過日本,這是現在2號中國一直是美國國債最大的海外持有者。
中國增持美債打擊一些人作為一個國家安全漏洞,但是這主要是由恐懼散播排外餵一個神話。一方面,中國持有的債務僅相當於約7.6 %的整個172000億美元在美國國債。大約三分之二的國家債務是在美國舉行,那政府信託基金和其他聯邦機構,大部分是納稅人的錢預計在社會保障及其他權利要花費共持有大約45 % 。總體而言,債權人山姆大叔的組合是相當不錯的多元化。
從所有來源,包括中國的借貸,也有利於華盛頓的薪酬更多的節目比美國人資助自己通過稅收。中國的貸款給美國的一個犀利的諷刺是它幫助支付航空母艦,戰鬥機,導彈等軍事硬件,將威脅著中國是否有過這兩個國家之間的對峙。
“一個大鍋飯的現金”
來自中國的資金也幫助支付醫療保險,公路,教育補助金,監獄,食品券和大多數其他的東西,聯邦政府花費金錢。有幾個節目 - 最顯著,社會保障 - 有資金專用來源。醫療保障部分資金的方式,但對於老年人流行的保健計劃的某些部分資金來自財政部的一般基金。在大多數情況下,稅收和借貸資金進入同一個池中的報務,對美元從不同的來源如何度過沒有區別。 “無論是支付債務或稅款派生,它的現金都是一個大鍋, ”德博拉·盧卡斯,在管理麻省理工學院斯隆商學院的金融學教授說。
中國持有的美國國債可能實際上是中國的一個更大的擔心不是為美國。 “當人們問”怎麼不好會是對美國,如果中國撤回了錢, '答案是, '怎麼不好會是對中國,如果美國破產了? “說:”中心的財政預算案的理查德·高根和政策優先。 “中國有一個很大的賭注,在美國的償債能力。他們要我們支付他們的全部本金及利息,並繼續購買他們所做的東西。 “
有很少或沒有證據,事實上,中國的外債持有量曾經被用於政治目的。中國主要是投資其外匯儲備的方式任何國家尋求經濟穩定會。
借貸規模浩大由美國政府是一個完全不同的故事和一個合法的擔心。華盛頓最近作出了其債務停止進展,從1.1萬億美元2012在2013年的年度赤字下降至6.80十億。這應該在今年下降到約5.6十億,根據國會預算辦公室,也許下如果經濟超出預期和稅收上升。
還是有沒有計劃,但是,對於解決預期爆炸開始到2020年左右,因為花費在退休的嬰兒潮一代一飛沖天的聯邦預算缺口。幸運的是,中國仍然有大量的錢,然後投資 - 並保持在一個寬鬆的心情。