馬英九的核能危機

Chernobyl Decay and Deformed

26 Apr. 1986 車諾堡災變餘生

無疑的，日本媒體在這次311災變中的表現，遠不如台灣媒體。

除了溫馨肥皂劇的安慰劑功能以外，在監督政府與官僚施政、協助外界取得救援物資人力資訊、善盡國際義務讓資訊透明...等等責任上全部「失格」。

民族性永遠小於人性；安慰劑的藥效一過，菅直人內閣與日本媒體的功能將不可避免的面臨有史以來最大的政治風暴。來自日本人民、與全世界輿論對核安失控的嚴厲的批判；屆時，再多的自我催眠式的輿論「內控」都沒有用。

台灣與日本同處於多地震多風災的地區，但是台灣媒體與人民迅速明快的在「八掌溪事件」與「八八風災」中「理盲濫情」的速審速決；我們不必妄自菲薄；台灣民眾與台灣媒體的民主素養確實優於日本。別忘了，原旨派民主的教義就是人民無情：英國人對付邱吉爾如是、兩千五百年前的希臘城邦對付雅典與斯巴達的英雄們亦如是。

截至目前為止，日本政府對災情的掌握能力明顯不足，媒體則完全失職，甚至福島危機的各項輻射數據、災情，大多都是由外國媒體所披露。民族性不能超越人性，日本人民再怎麼內斂自持，面對「日本戰後最大的危機」、甚至極可能是亡國滅種危機處理的無能與失控，我們實在不必期待日本人民會繼續有「超越人性」的不正常表現，張超英先生在宮前町九十番地對日本人的民族性有精闢的評述；日本人「一起闖紅燈就不怕」，福島災損控管與救災效率如果不見提升，我們將不難看到「日本人一起闖紅燈就不怕」的種種現象；這也將對台灣東亞問題研究的學者與媒體的實力與良心，提出最大的反證。

國際原子能總署（IAEA）二十一日在其維也納總部公布了IAEA輻射監測小組對福島第一核電廠周邊區域土壤和大氣輻射量的檢測數據。該數據顯示，距離福島第一核電廠約二十公里的福島縣浪江町附近測得的輻射量為每小時一百六十一微西弗，約為正常值的一千六百倍。此後的核輻射汙染數據不斷的飆高。依照車諾堡核災變後的紀錄，實質上災變範圍與強度遠超過車諾堡的福島事變，將造成遠比車諾堡更悲慘的核輻射病變。陸陸續續災變的真相與死亡、病變、新生兒畸型、....逐一浮現後，將帶給台灣在內全地球公民更大的心理震撼。

這也意味著：2012年台灣政情的發展，在擁核反核二元化以後的發展與民新趨勢將至為明顯，實質的、大規模的核病變也許不會在台灣發生，但是對台灣某些不習於傾聽民意、體察潮流、甚至常以反智態度責怪人民「理盲濫情」的政治人物與團體來說，隨著日本災變的資訊陸續流出後對全球民眾帶來的震撼，這個政治效應凌遲處死的過程，將堪稱是台灣式的「核病變」。

李登輝在3月27日對非核議題表示，「要怎麼『非』？」

眾所周知，核子安全問題裡有兩個大項目：一是商業運轉的核子反應機組管理問題、一是核子武器與相關原料與技術管制的問題。

「遂讓豎子成名」，個人批判民進黨超過十年，辛辣與無賴程度當然遠超過對國民黨黨內的建言，但是很遺憾的，個人居然從來沒有被民進黨或綠營人士「言論管制」過。這樣「提攜後進」的手，畢竟還是來自國民黨內。

因此，不舛疏漏，對於李登輝「要怎麼『非』？」的背後動機做一番粗陋的背景分析之外。也試圖在維護台灣人民利益、兩岸重大、長遠、且迫切的共同利益的大前提之下，提出一些「要怎麼『非』？」的具體做法與方案，祈各位先進批評指教。

Japan nuclear evacuation 'will be long-term

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12930949

Search for the dead Reactor leaks: Aerial view Aid worker's diary Inside the evacuation zone The evacuation of residents near Japan's quake-hit Fukushima nuclear plant will be long-term, officials say. Many of the tens of thousands of people evacuated from the area around the plant are living in temporary shelters. The announcement came as high levels of radiation were detected for the first time in groundwater near one of the facility's six reactors. Meanwhile, a massive search has begun to find the remains of those missing since the devastating tsunami hit. Three weeks after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami, the true number of those who died is still not known. More than 11,500 people are confirmed dead but nearly 16,500 remain unaccounted for. More than 100 Japanese and US military planes and 65 ships are scouring the country's north-eastern coast to locate any remaining bodies. Employing some 24,000 military personnel, the intensive air and sea operation will focus on shores that were largely submerged or remain under water, as well as the mouths of major rivers. Click to playThe BBC's Mark Worthington says a major three-day hunt for tsunami bodies is getting under wayMany coastal areas remain inaccessible to rescuers trying enter by road or foot, blocked by the mangled remains of houses, ships, cars and trains. Because of radiation concerns, the search does not include the 20km (12-mile) evacuation zone around the Fukushima Daiichi plant, where there are believed to be 1,000 bodies. Food contamination More than 70,000 people living within the exclusion zone have been moved to temporary shelters. Another 136,000 people who live within 20-30km of the plant have been encouraged by the authorities to leave or to stay indoors. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the evacuation would be a "long-term" operation. Continue reading the main story Fukushima update (1 April) Reactor 1: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas explosion. Radioactive water detected in reactor and basement, and groundwater Reactor 2: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage suspected. Highly radioactive water detected in reactor and adjoining tunnel Reactor 3: Damage to the core from cooling problems. Building holed by gas blast; containment damage possible. Spent fuel pond partly refilled with water after running low. Radioactive water detected in reactor and basement Reactor 4: Reactor shut down prior to quake. Fires and explosion in spent fuel pond; water level partly restored Reactors 5 & 6: Reactors shut down. Temperature of spent fuel pools now lowered after rising high Q&A: Health effects of radiation Q&A: Fukushima radiation alert In a televised address, Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he was "prepared for a long-term battle" at the plant - one he said that would be won. "At the current stage, we cannot say that the plant has been sufficiently stabilised. But we are preparing for all kinds of situations and I am convinced that the plant can be stabilised. "We cannot say at this stage say by when this will happen, but we are trying our best," he said. The authorities are resisting calls from the UN's atomic agency to expand the exclusion zone around the plant, after it found safe radiation limits had been exceeded at the village of Iitate, 40km away. Highly radioactive water continues to leak at the plant; for the first time it has been found in groundwater 15m below reactor 1. Although it does not appear to have caused an immediate problem, there is a possibility it could eventually affect drinking water if concentrations were high enough. Radioactive material detected in the sea near the plant rose steeply on Thursday, with radioactive iodine levels reaching 4,385 times the limit. Workers are continuing to try to stabilise four reactors by using water to cool fuel rods. They also face the problem of how to deal with highly radioactive run-off water that has accumulated in a tunnel. Kyodo reported that the radiation level in a tunnel outside reactor 2 was more than 10,000 times above normal levels. The plant's operator, Tepco, says low-priority tasks at Fukushima will now have to be postponed, after it emerged there was a shortage of radiation monitors for workers. Video released by nuclear plant operator Tepco shows the damage to the facilityMany of the monitors were destroyed in the tsunami, so Tepco had assigned one per group of workers rather than per individual, Japan's nuclear safety agency said. "The agency warned Tepco yesterday (Thursday) to do the utmost to manage workers' exposure levels," said spokesman Hidehiko Nishiyama. Radioactive material may be leaking from the damaged plant continuously, the country's nuclear and industrial safety agency (Nisa) said. The radiation, which has halted shipments of certain vegetables, dairy produce and other foodstuffs from four nearby prefectures, has been widened to include beef, the health ministry said. However, the government insists that no water or food contamination has reached levels that would be harmful to people's health

这个已经在做了！

不但西方世界在检测来自日本的产品与物流，包括人员，大陆也全面的在监控来自日本的一切。

日本本岛的企业也非常自觉而积极的进行自我检测！

日本国内现在有条件检测放射性的机器与部门现在完全被各个企业的检测申请塞满。

当然，我的看法这种情况不是短期会改变的——核污染改变了预期，也有现实的经济博弈思考在里面——“核污染贸易壁垒”是各国敲打日本的必然应手！

所以，我那个烂文章里认为此次地震显著增加了日本政府的决策困难与日本企业的经营风险。

当然，我们应该强烈要求政府坚持公共安全第一的责任，严格确保进出口贸易的安全！

我覺得真的很有參考價值! 可以請您把他加在主文嗎?

要不然我們討論把妳的大作都擠到後面看不到了真的很可惜

核能安全是一個重要的專業議題。

現在台灣政客卻還在牽拖大陸核電廠，近在自己身邊的卻不去檢討，還在藍綠烏賊戰，讓人覺得真是莫名其妙。

比對德國人與日本人的嚴謹一絲不苟的態度，日本都已經大災難了，台灣官員輕忽的又一切泛政治化的態度真讓人不敢領教

请不仅注意散布方向，同时还需要看其强弱，基本上，强度算是低的。因此，就辐射通过空气风尘扩散来说，处于上风口的台湾和大陆都没有必要过度紧张。

吹啊，吹啊，就到美国了....

24日0时的态势预测：

25日0时的态势预测

再附上一个图，全球地震几率分布及核电站位置图

其中，所谓几率是指未来50年间10%的概率发生地震的风险率，红色表示风险相当高，绿色很低，黑点是核电站的大致位置

如果看图，就应该知道，大陆基本上选址都处于地震发生低几率地区，并且大陆的核电站比福岛核电站普遍先进一代以上，安全系数高于福岛核电站。而台湾，地震概率各位可以自己看图，核电技术也可以自己询问台湾有关专家，不过据我了解，是和日本这次福岛核电站一样，用的是比较老旧的技术（沸水堆）。

台湾媒体，马英九以及吕秀莲等人说大陆核电如何如何，如果发生核泄漏危害更大等等的话，在我看来实在是在转移注意力，与其如此，不如先检讨自己的核电站比较靠谱--核能安全，这不是用来比烂的。