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公主徹夜未眠(Nessun Dorma) 與 恐懼的總和
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http://blog.udn.com/yugene8/3294167


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公主徹夜未眠(Nessun Dorma)

2009/09/11 05:08

散爺大哉問

晚輩領酒謬答, 祈散爺指正:

重閱定國是詔, 以國書格局觀之, 雖有昧規模氣度, 誤診沉疴於先, 未能一展新願景於後, 以致未收風行草偃之效; 然戊戌變法仍有三顆定石,足以穩住盤勢:

1.清廷之一敗再敗, 國人皆知非變法不足以圖強, 士林支持, 百姓期待

2.當時外國勢力, 大多樂觀其成

3.光緒雖瘖弱, 但道德無可訾議之處, 親政天經地義

戊戌之敗, 在於康梁之躁與光緒之請鬼拿藥單

以上述三點反思:

1.年餘來, 黃芳彥遠走海外, 贓款無一元追回, 金改與諸重大弊案之辦與不辦間, 司馬昭之心, 路人皆知, 士林早已齒冷; 庶民百姓惟憂溫飽, 然失業率與物價一再破紀錄, 未究根柢只能以不斷擴大舉債, 以債養債掩耳盜鈴, 事關百姓生活之: 健保, 勞保, 交通, ....弊案不斷, 猶以操控媒體文過飾非為能事, 人民最詬病的法務,勞工, 財政, 兩岸....旗下大小諸官, 仍師心自用

2. 多次聽一位唸政治國關, 專長是蘇聯研究的"學者"談國際關係, 他很喜歡用筆在紙上畫三個大圈表示美中台的三邊關係; 我認為他錯了, 代表台的那個圈他一直畫得太大, 而且認為自己是player的心態與紀錄, 恐怕早已讓兩強失去了耐心與最重要的信任

其實台灣早因為一些"聰明人",把自己的籌碼快玩光了;

不才的想法: "Honesty is the Best Policy",處於全球政經高度不穩定的現在, 對所有的資訊透明, 所有的政策誠實, 對國際社會沒有陰謀只有陽謀的作法, 恐怕是比較有智慧的

3. 散爺的資料彌足珍貴, 八月期間, 老美突然公佈新聞自由與人權指數嚴重衰退的"評比", 我想殊非偶然; 邀訪達賴的所有細節,未必可以永遠隻手遮天, 至於想玩的人到底有多少家底與籌碼,這點兩強比我們知道的應該多得多, 有沒有失去耐心? 他們應該比我們清楚; 有人想燒炭自殺, 全家人未必願意陪著死, 我認為本月27日, 應該可以做下結論

 

開大門﹐走大路
誠實的溝通﹐實在的做事。「真正的偉大是單純的;真正的智慧是坦誠的;真正的力量是謙和的」。「媒體政治學」那一套猴戲﹐是玩不久的。

唉....從年前這話一直反覆的說, 好像完全沒用?

不才魯鈍

散爺教我,

這, 是怎麼一回事?

The Sum of All Fears Executions (恐懼的總和)

逍遙散客(yugene8) 於 2009-09-11 14:23 回覆:

如何「振興財經」和「在美中較勁的夾縫中左右逢源」,是台灣燃在眉睫的兩大急迫課題。

觀察馬英九一手主導的吳內閣名單,明顯曝露缺乏財經新秀,及熟悉外交實務的人才。其因素,不論是人才嚴重斷層,或是人才拒絕接受馬英九延攬,都是朝野不得不放下私利,去嚴肅思考,共謀對策的中華民國重大危機。

天佑中華民國!天佑台灣人民!千萬別讓溫斯頓.邱吉爾的名言“或許你可將最勇敢的水手,無畏的飛行員,或大膽的士兵齊聚一堂——但你得到些什麼呢?他們心中恐懼的總和”,印證在台灣。

  

 



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有一種指標叫「落後指標

千金難買早知道。這在人生過程、婚姻與兩性、投資與經濟.....乃至於政局推演的過程中,「你達達的馬蹄聲,是我美麗的錯誤」,於是乎,在無可挽救與防微杜漸之先,「先進指標」顯得更重要而寶貴。

等了七年,突然之間,「看見台灣」蔚為風潮。

可是早在七年之前,在國民黨黨內就有一個提案,針對九二一大地震後的國土復育與災後復健,提出了一個通盤的計畫,檢討陳水扁時期所有的水利、國土規劃、河海工程、乃至於農工產銷體制資訊化的黨內提案,而且迅速得到黨內先進的聯署與支持。(知道國民黨的「民主化」程度,就會知道邁過聯署門檻是多麼困難)

七年了,如果國土復育大調查在馬執政之初就付諸實施,即便還在計畫階段與勘查階段,還會有八八水災時的窘境嗎?  還會有危橋與豐丘明隧道、汐止段土石崩塌、后豐大橋.....逐步壓垮馬政府執政信心的一連串事件嗎?  復育土地,土地也會友善的給予回報;五千億投入DRAM付諸東流,但花在土地的每一分錢,都不會浪費,復育計劃帶動的高報酬就業與在地消費,也遠比消費券帶來的消費緊縮,與22k與無薪假帶來的就業市場惡化更具前瞻性。

可惜,這麼多人連署的提案,被黨工束之高閣。

國民黨的強項在哪? 是那些颱風天還在「巡田水」、手工調水閘、半夜查流量、查偷排、冒死查水空污、排解搶水農民當「公道伯」的基層黨員與代表身上;他們與民休葺、知道甚麼才是民間疾苦,他們深知民瘼之所在;他們會在冬雨冷澈心扉的時候,跟著基層執法人員抓山老鼠、抓盜採沙石、調整水閘門半圈或四分之一圈,挽救農漁民一年的辛苦..... 這些務實的工程師,不少擁有工程碩博士的資歷,過去五年來被打成「地方派系」、牛鬼蛇神,這幾年下來,心冷了,人家不玩了,「七合一」,還叫得動這些老兵嗎?

「看見台灣」給了台灣人重新發現台灣、關懷我們的家的契機。但是「看見台灣」看不見的還有消失的海岸線、大片已經沉入海中的國土、被財團與代工業毒化竭澤而漁的土壤、被政客與財團聯手以法律剝削的山林與圈地運動。在在都需要被「看見」並積極處理。


因為沒有「領先指標」、我們只能窮於應付「落後指標」,因為沒有規劃與工程師的格局,我們只能看消防隊疲於四處搶救「輪流失火」。因為看得不夠遠,我們只能應付眼前。


還是期待執政黨把握最後的機會,開始務本篤實。也期待媒體從傳聲統的角色轉換為web2.0的對話模式。

但是,等了那麼久,已經很難有太多的期待。或許該期待明年大選新一代政治人物或在藍綠以外的公民組織能夠承擔起政治家的恢宏規格來動手做事。

也或許,我們只能繼續等待。

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明天過後台灣版很精彩可期咧~
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6月7日就在明天囉

台軍演習遭美偵察艦監測達10小時官員稱太不正常

http://gb.cri.cn/42071/2013/05/17/6351s4118691.htm

國軍秀戰力! 首度證實雷霆2000進駐馬祖

幫伯樂腦子是又進水了嗎? 要搞賭場賺大陸賭客的錢、又要ECFA投保協定擴大金融服務業

不敢保衛南海保護漁民,卻在這個時候把二次大戰蘇聯人發明的老武器卡秋謝送去馬祖

X! 還秀戰力咧! 笑死他爸爸我了

這是要怎樣?  很給他看不懂耶 

嗯嗯.....連偶都開始覺得明天兩個大尾的(David Loman)要談甚麼、要處理甚麼、結論是甚麼,大概有眉目了~

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公主確實該徹夜難眠了
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6月7日, G2 即將在Sunnylands,CA 舉行峰會了

敘利亞、北非問題、北方四島爭議,俄羅斯已表明強硬的態度、伊朗與歐盟問題懸而難解.... QE已經破功復甦遙遙無期...

G2兩大要喊籌碼對賭或合作當莊家解決擺在眼前的世紀難題,誰會是最容易被交換的條件籌碼?

各位的遠見; 滿清惡習國內宣傳彈壓言論一級棒,但大國的國家利益與國民情感豈是可以被玩弄操控的?

說不定轉瞬之間, 情勢由左右逢源突變成兩強夾殺也未可知吧?

唉....公主確實該徹夜難眠了

 Paul Potts  --Nessun Dorma

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不是潑"學者專家"冷水
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問題是~~ 靠得住嗎?

不要捅破「九二共識」這扇紙窗

http://udn.com/NEWS/OPINION/OPI1/5774112.shtml

危機好像一步一步逼近喔


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依您看....
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美中角力 台灣有可能不靠老美嗎?

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哦....我不得不同意你
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政府現在真的知道中小企業的雇主有多辛苦嗎?

政府每次搞甚麼福利都是要人民去買單,雇主的負擔一年比一年重,好處都給財團,他們又把工作機會都給外勞..... 誰創造就業機會啊,是中小企業耶,....真是笨蛋!

 

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真的是恐懼的總和
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現在我的同學同事每一位都一樣

都不太知到馬政府到底想要做甚麼?還是做甚麼都不跟人家商量

我爸爸那一輩的老闆級的野後悔投錯票了,救失業給了超大企業很多22k補助,反而讓中小企業愈來愈難生存

ECFA的利益跟觀光一樣,都盡到了少數人的口袋裡....社會真的愈來愈不公平了!

真的是恐懼的總和....現在每個人都不太確定未來會怎樣

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Taiwan and China to start substantive talk on ECFA this month.
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Taiwan and China to start substantive talk on ECFA this month.

Taiwan and China are scheduled to enter substantive discussion on the so-called early-harvest list, or priority items for mutual market opening, during the second talk on cross-Taiwan Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in Taipei earlier this month.

Despite inevitable give and take, both sides are expected to iron out their differences and reach agreement eventually, especially in view of the good-will gesture made by Chinese leaders recently, particularly on the thorniest issue regarding import of Chinese agricultural products into Taiwan.

In response to an inquiry from a Taiwanese people during a web video conference last Saturday (Feb. 27), Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao remarked that China is willing to 'give benefits to Taiwanese farmers' during the ECFA talk. The remark echoed an earlier pledge made by Chinese President Hu Jintao, in a tour of Fujian Province during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, for taking into account fully the interest of Taiwan people, especially Taiwanese farmers, during the ECFA talk.

However, although Taiwan may be able to keep majority of the existing import ban on 865 Chinese agricultural products in place, it may have to open up market to many of 1,377 Chinese industrial products, now forbidden to enter Taiwan, such as steel and glass products, as China has reiterated the principle of trade normalization for the talk.

In addition, China has expressed the intention of putting on the early harvest list Chinese products with larger export volume to Taiwan but subject to over 3% tariff, so as to maximize the benefit of market opening for China.

On the other hand, items requested by Taiwan for inclusion into the list are products with heavier reliance on the Chinese market and urgent need for tariff cut in the wake of the implementation of the 'ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) plus one' agreement, such as petrochemical products, mid- and upstream textiles, machinery and parts, autos, and LCD

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我覺得昨天馬英九在ECFA的嘴臉像是陳水扁上身
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難怪李敖會說:

馬只是會說英語的陳水扁

他是當代作家中為一的先知先覺者

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Taiwan
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Taiwan's Ma Ying-jeou in a Bad Patch Print E-mail
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Written by Our Correspondent   
Friday, 02 April 2010
Image
Ma Ying Jeou
A trade pact with China roils the electoral waters


Over the nearly two years since Ma Ying-jeou was sworn in as Taiwan's president, his popularity has seesawed from a high of 58 percent when he was elected to a low of around 20 percent when his government was perceived as arrogant and incompetent in the wake of Typhoon Morakot, then recovered strongly on the government's performance after the global financial crisis. Now it has plummeted again, with just 23.8 percent of the electorate approving of his performance.

Ma's popularity now is at risk over the ECFA – the Economic Cooperation and Framework Agreement with China, a preferential trade agreement being discussed in Taipei and one that voters widely believe will sacrifice the island's autonomy to Beijing. Although the ECFA is similar to pacts signed between China and Hong Kong and China and Mexico, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party has made it a crusade against unification.

Chinese products, they say, will flood Taiwan's markets, many of them tainted and poisonous. Mainland workers will usurp jobs. Highly educated youth will leave for Shanghai. Those who stay won't find jobs because mainlanders straight out of Beijing's elite graduate schools will not only be shifty but also more diligent. Farmers, workers, fishermen all are bound to face a harsh future due to unfair competitors from the other side of the Taiwan Strait, they say. More and more Taiwanese men marry mainland women, and their children won't cherish a Taiwanese identity.

The 59-year-old Ma came into office as Taiwan's rising star. Born in Hong Kong, he earned a law degree first from National Taiwan University in 1972, then a master's at law from New York University Law School, and a doctorate from Harvard Law School, then working as an associate on Wall Street before eventually returning to Taiwan. His American education and approach to governing appeared to present a clean break from the country's previous deeply scandal-tainted politics, especially those of his own predecessors in the Kuomintang.

He became president in May 2008, and at that time to many Taiwanese from across the political spectrum, he was not only the most promising choice but also the world's best-looking leader. The disgraceful end of Ma's predecessor's career also helped Ma to be regarded as Mr. Clean. By the time Ma came to power, former president Chen Shui-bian had been the target of repeated corruption claims and indeed in September 2009 Chen was sentenced to life imprisonment for embezzlement, money laundering and bribery.

And, when in 2008 the world financial crisis hit, Ma Ying-jeou's cabinet reacted quickly and positively. The government issued consumer shopping vouchers, with each eligible Taiwanese receiving NT$3,600 (US$113) to attempt to revive the domestic economy. This went well with the public.

But Ma abruptly stopped being everybody's darling in the days after August 8, 2009. Typhoon Morakot devastated southern Taiwan, the traditional stronghold of the DPP. The cabinet reacted too slowly and in the eyes of many inappropriately. Ma traveled to destroyed villages, but instead of comforting the survivors, he blamed them for not having consented to evacuation. This was hard to swallow for people whose relatives had been killed a mere 48 hours earlier. Taiwanese and international media were on the spot, Ma's behavior was perceived as arrogant, and his approval ratings, braced by the reaction to the economic crisis, fell from 52 percent to 29 percent in a matter of days.

The mainland's economy got through the global crisis almost undamaged, a factor that has not only been noticed in the west but also in Taiwan. Suddenly many Taiwanese's perception of China changed, since the US, EU and the rich Asian democracies looked for rescue from China and not like in the old days the other way around. Although domestic year-on-year GDP growth for 2009 was a negative 4.06 percent, the economy troughed in the first quarter by minus 10.16 percent and has been recovering since. Domestic consumption regained its strength thanks to the government's intervention and a healthy stock market. In 2010, GDP should be a more normal 4.10-4.50 percent, with consumers largely mollified by the government's action.

Thus the time appeared ripe for Beijing and Taipei to start negotiations on the ECFA, and the first round of talks were held in Beijing in January. As expected, the Taiwanese opposition fiercely opposed the historic approach between the CCP and the KMT-ruled Taiwan. In the same month, Ma again lost a good portion of his political capital earned during the financial crisis.

Unexpectedly to the Taiwanese public, the government also announced it was about to loosen restrictions on the import of certain types of US beef. As in other Asian countries, the imported had been halted over fears of mad cow disease.

When South Korea reopened to US beef in 2008, it came after weeks of massive protests that almost overthrew the government. Ma Ying-jeou was heavily criticized for having failed to consult the legislature and the public before lifting the ban. It came to demonstrations in Taipei, the topic was reported on by the media for weeks yet it didn't reach the South Korean scale.

Since Ma's government must have been aware of what happened in Korea, the decision to risk his standing with the Taiwanese public could have been a political maneuver: in times of ongoing ECFA negotiations the demonstrations gave Beijing the signal that the Taiwanese are still likely to hit the streets if there are developments they don't approve of. Beijing has good reason to fear TV-footage of demonstrations going on in ‘Greater China,' regardless whether they happen on the mainland, in Hong Kong or in Taipei. Ma Ying-jeou's approval ratings dropped, yet through this sacrifice he kept an overly pushy China at bay.

At present, Ma's approval ratings are almost as low as in the weeks after Morakot hit. Recent events on the domestic political stage haven't helped. Earlier this month Department of Health Minister Yaung Chih-liang announced his surprise resignation over a disagreement with Premier Wu Den-yih concerning national health insurance, publicly blasting the government for what he called short-term policy making only for the sake of winning the next elections.

This was not the only Cabinet member that left since shortly after Justice Minister Wang Ching-feng resigned after failing to win support for her opposition to the death penalty.

On March 31 the second round of ECFA talks will open in Taipei. Beijing is likely to watch Ma's public standing closely, as are Taiwanese businessmen who operate on the mainland. A domestically weak Ma Ying-jeou is the last thing they need, since the signing of agreements will become much more difficult. Many also worry that as soon as Beijing senses that with a Taiwan under Ma Ying-jeou developments don't go the way as it has been anticipated, the Chinese side will leave the path of reconciliation. The thought of what might come then sends chills down the spine of people not only to both sides of the Taiwan Straits but also in Tokyo and Washington.

Taiwan's next presidential elections are to be held in 2012. That's a long way ahead. Since Taiwan is a vibrant democracy, things can change overnight, and it's far from certain that Ma's approval ratings won't bounce back. Given that the stakes are so high, it's in the interest of both the Taiwanese business community and China that they go up again. To make things go smoothly for Ma, the Chinese government could easily resort to economic aid in a form as subtle as in 2009, when it awarded orders to Taiwanese companies to supply a large scale program that brought cheap household electronics to China's provinces. Money makes the world go around and the Chinese government, which least wants to see a failing Ma, holds US$2.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2380&Itemid=386

 

 



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