So let's take a moment, dust off our thinking caps, and imagine why Frank Hsieh will defeat Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008 Presidential election on the Beautiful Isle.
當我們先不理KMT片面民意調查及傳統的思維時, 為何謝還可以贏得這個美麗之島的總統大選 ? 我分析如下 :
Experience -- Ma has never run in a contested election against a competent opponent who had a chance to beat him. His only "election" victories came in Taipei, where a Blue wig on a stick is certain to win, and the landslide election to KMT chairman. He was appointed head of the RDEC, and appointed Minister of Justice. Hsieh, by contrast, was elected legislator and Taipei city councillor. He won a tough race in Kaohsiung. More importantly, Hsieh has lost two elections, the 1996 Presidential election, where he was the Veep candidate, and the 2006 Taipei mayoral election. The experience of loss is as important as victory in teaching candidates what it takes to win. And Hsieh has already competed at this level. Moreover, Hsieh has contested elections in both the north and the south. Ma has never been elected outside Taipei. Take a look at their respective backgrounds:
從北到南的選戰歷練是勝選的關鍵, 而這一點是馬無法與謝相抗衡的 :
Ma: failed the bar
Hsieh: human rights lawyer
馬 : 沒有俱備任何法律實務經驗
謝 : 擔任過人權律師
Ma: Minster of Justice
馬 : 法務部長
謝 : 行政院院長
Ma: no deliberative background
Hsieh: Taipei City Councilor
馬 : 沒有類似的經驗作背景
謝 : 台北市市議員
Ma: no deliberative background
馬 : 沒有類似的經驗作背景
謝 : 立法委員
Ma: Mayor of Taipei
Hsieh: Mayor of Kaohsiung
馬 : 台北市長
謝 : 高雄市長
Ma: Chairman, KMT
Hsieh: Chairman, DPP
馬 : KMT 主席
謝 : DPP 主席
Ma: head, RDEC
Hsieh: no similar experience
Ma: no prior national election experience
Hsieh: Veep candidate, 1996
Ma: no media experience
Hsieh:Talk show host, TVBS
Ma: servant of authoritarian regime
Hsieh: opponent of authoritarian regime
The result? Hsieh has that fire in the belly. Ma....has nice hair.
結論是？ 謝是滿腔熱血 ！ 馬則是比謝頭髮多了一點罷了 ！
Economy -- Oh yeah. It's rolling right now. Stock market at 7 year highs. Unemployment falling gently over the long term. Exports at record levels and likely to continue as the China market continues to boom. The income equality issue isn't going to be solved any time soon, but if unemployment trends continue, Ma is facing a serious problem running on the economy. Ma's pick of Siew as Vice President was a tactical error -- it essentially locks him into running on the economy (Siew is a technocrat with broad respect but no broad appeal). Ma should have announced he would make Siew his econ czar if elected, and then picked someone young and interesting to be his Veep.
As the advocate of complete opening to China, Ma's policy runs into one of the underlying pillars of support for the DPP's cautious China policy. Chen Shui-bian, speaking on the issue of admitting Chinese students here, observed:
"Don't be naive and think that it is simply a cross-strait educational exchange. Once you allow a small crack in the system, a giant gash will soon follow. Opening Taiwan to Chinese students and professors will only have an adverse effect on job opportunities for local citizens," the president stressed.
陳總統強調： 千萬不要以為兩岸的學術及教育交流有哪麼的簡單，一旦開放對岸的教授及學生來台，那整個的台灣師資及工作機會將面臨衝擊 ！
Every Taiwanese knows that across the Strait are hordes of unemployed Chinese who have no families here and can work for half of what a Taiwanese can. The working class already sees its wages falling in real terms, and knows that foreign labor is here to keep their own wages down. When people feel threatened economically, they tend to vote nationalistically. And voting "nationalist" in Taiwan means casting a pro-Taiwan vote.
Electioneering -- The DPP knows how to run and win elections. They got Chen Shui-bian to victory in 2000 and 2004, when everyone said it was impossible to do so. Feiren pointed out to me the other day that Hsieh has a cadre of volunteers who were out electioneering on the last night before the Taipei mayoral election, even though he had no chance of winning. Ma has nothing like that. It is true that the DPP's local level networks are not as extensive as those of the KMT, but the KMT also does not appear to know how to translate its presence at the local level into victory at the national level.
Enmity -- Ma is disliked by the KMT Party Machine politicians like Speaker of the Legislature Wang Jyn-ping and Chairman for Life Lien Chan. In the chairmanship election two years ago none of the party elites supported Ma. He is also disliked by the Taiwanese legislators in the KMT, the so-called "southern legislators," who are grumbling that he is displacing them in party power circles and in the legislature. Many of those legislators have farm and irrigation association backgrounds, others in shady local industries and clan and patronage networks. This was the crowd that Ma attacked when he was justice minister. They might support him, for he has shown little inclination in recent years to take on the Party Machine. But then again, they might fear he will turn on them once in office.
Earnings -- KMT is much wealthier than the DPP, no question. But the DPP has apparently been raking it in recently:
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is nearly 80 times richer -- in total asset terms -- than the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), figures from the Ministry of the Interior show.
The KMT has assets worth more than NT$27 billion (US$821 million), while the DPP's assets amount to nearly NT$339 million.
In a rare peek at hard numbers from political parties' financial statements, some surprising information about the top parties appeared on the ministry's Web site yesterday (www.moi.gov.tw/home/home.asp).
Although it is no secret that the KMT possesses copious assets -- much of which its critics allege it plundered after Taiwan ceased to be a Japanese colony -- it might surprise some to know that the DPP's income for last year was more than double that of the KMT.
The DPP earned NT$661 million while the KMT pulled in a little more than NT$301 million.
In terms of net assets, the KMT boasts 100 times more asset value, or roughly NT$25.5 billion, to the DPP's nearly NT$253 million, the records show.
But the KMT is also saddled with more debt, nearly NT$1.6 billion as of last year, compared with the DPP's nearly NT$86 million.
當然雙方陣營對於黨產的計算及運用，一般而言國民黨的黨產收刮日治時代的地產及財物加上這幾年來的隱藏財產遠遠大於民進黨，所以只要ＤＰＰ再度執政可能將全面改觀！（文中的統計數目羅賓不翻譯，因為這只是玩數目字遊戲罷了 ！ ）
Is the smart money betting on the DPP? Hard to say, but I'm inclined to think so.
這一點還很難說 ！不過換做是我的話，我願意賭民進黨將會是贏家 ！
Ethnicity -- In the western press it is conventionally claimed that Ma and Hsieh are both moderates who can appeal to centrist voters. The western moderate voter here is a myth -- the center in Taiwan is composed of two types of voters: apathetic Greens who don't turn out if not thrilled by the candidate, and voters who have given up on politics and do not vote. In other word, the centrist voters are pro-independence. Western observers are often puzzled as to why political leaders in Taiwan do not move toward the middle when they make political moves. This is because, by default, the DPP is already at the middle -- the centrist voter is Green, and because the middle -- that's the place between Blue and Green! -- consists of people who don't vote (so why move toward them?). This is why Ma, when trying to move toward the center and pick up some of those Light Green votes, has made feeble gestures, killed by the KMT core, to include independence as an option for the KMT. In other words, Ma is constrained by his political values from appealing to the "center" since, as polls show, the Taiwan identity is growing here. The most Ma can do is get absolutely everyone Blue out to vote. In a nation where voters tend to vote their political identities, this is a disadvantage.
其實所謂的中間選民就是： 深綠沉默的一群人+ 廣大對於政治絲毫不感興趣人的組合 ！
The election will of course be tight, but all in all, I think Hsieh has an excellent change to win.
That could change, of course. The indictments against both are wild cards, though it unthinkable that the largely pro-Blue prosecutorial and judicial system will actually convict Ma. Ma's indictment will be thrown out, I suspect. Another huge intangible is Chinese money, which I fear will be entering Taiwan in large amounts for this election. But still, if both sides give it their best shot, I look forward to watching President Hsieh sworn in 2008.
我比較懷疑的是 ： 中國的大量資金是否已經悄悄地進入台灣準備影響這一次選舉 ！
不過還是要提醒DPP 千萬要注意KMT及軍方的最後反撲 ! (可能會流血政變 ! )