http://www.dsti.net/Information/News/55830
波音和空客公司2010年前景展望
2010-01-06
[據英國《飛行國際》2010年1月4日報導] 2009年民機市場的發展處於停滯狀態，空客和波音的淨訂單從2008年的1400架陡降1000架。當前世界經濟表露復蘇跡象，但民機製造商在2010年可能看不到市場回暖的希望。不過一兩個重大訂單還是有可能簽訂的，比如阿聯酋航空和聯合航空這樣的公司大規模採購。
下周空客將透露它在2009年是否達到了300架訂單的銷售目標。截至到11月底，空客銷售了225架飛機，如果按往年那樣出現年末的銷售小高潮，這個全年目標就可以達到。波音2009年的銷售業績被大量的787訂單取消所抹平，使淨訂單減少到100架左右。隨著首飛的成功，今年波音將鞏固現存的787儲備訂單，並努力達到修正的進度，保證交付不會進一步延遲。兩家製造商都沒發佈詳細的2010年生產指南，不過去年產量達到了創紀錄的970多架，今年將很難維持這個水準。
為了在經濟低迷時保護持續生產的能力，民機製造商認為2009年的交付籌資是個重大的難題。實際上這個缺口沒有一些分析家們預測得多。波音資本集團（BCC）的資料顯示，空客、波音、龐巴迪、巴航四家製造商為2009年交付所需的680億美元籌資中，自身只需解決25億美元而不是200億美元。BCC估計2010年民機製造商將需要提供相當水準的財政支援，儘管全部的交付籌資需求由於生產速率減少將下降8%至620億美元。
在金融海嘯影響較小地區的航空公司，比如海灣航空、Fly迪拜航空、卡塔爾航空，可以將進度提前，接收其他航空公司飛機。這使得製造商可以維持生產而不用生產無人接收的飛機，不過在2010年民航業是否還能這麼幹還是未知數。
在民機項目上，空客和波音今年的計畫都是滿滿。波音的列表是推進787的試飛計畫，並讓747-8上天。這兩架飛機在今年末都應實現首付。
與此同時，空客的A350XWB開發將看到成果，首架飛機的大部件將從歐洲和美國的工廠彙集到圖盧茲，準備2011年初開始的總裝。更快完成的將是A330-200F的首飛，並在夏天開始交付。空客還要解決A380的生產問題，它承認裝配工藝和定制過程還是要花費太長的時間。預計公司將在圖盧茲和漢堡實施更多的變化。
在產品開發方面，空客和波音在2010年可能有一些關鍵性的決策，而這都聯繫到發動機。兩家公司都想開發當前單通道飛機的換髮型號，裝備CFM國際、普•惠和羅•羅公司正在開發的下一代渦扇發動機。隨著發動機製造商們落實它們自己的計畫，開發計畫可能在今後12個月內明確。空客和波音的任何舉動都會對龐巴迪C系列簽訂新訂單造成壓力，目前它只得到了漢莎/瑞士航空和租賃商LCI公司的訂單。
波音似乎在用777對抗A350方面遇到了壓力，要決定如何使它更有效。波音正在審查各種方案，比如翻新的、更換機翼的、全新的飛機，但這些可能都要跟新發動機結合起來，它可能來自目前777發動機的唯一供應商GE公司。 (中國航空工業發展研究中心 劉亞威)
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/01/04/336577/forecasts-2010-the-airframers.html
Forecasts 2010: The airframers
By Max Kingsley-Jones
DATE:04/01/10
SOURCE:Flight International
The succession of boom years that faltered in 2008 came to a full stop in 2009, with Airbus and Boeing's net orders tumbling by 1,000 units from the 1,400 of the previous year.
With the world's economy only just showing signs of a recovery, the airframers' fortunes are unlikely to see a turnaround in 2010. But one or two major orders can still be expected as the likes of Emirates and United Airlines go shopping in "the sales" for some sporty deals.
"Most of the important economic and airline industry indicators are likely to be relatively flat in 2010, arguing for another slow year for orders," says Teal Group vice-president analysis Richard Aboulafia.
"Of course, with 7,000 on backlog, the industry shouldn't care about orders. The fact that it does shows that the current 7,000 don't mean much, and that, paradoxically, the goal of orders is seriously flawed. We need traffic and profits. And 2010 looks like a very slow recovery."
Next week Airbus will reveal whether it reached the sales target it set back in January 2009 of 300 gross orders for the year. By the end of the 11th month, the airframer's sales had reached 225, so that the full-year goal was just about within reach if it was able to get its usual flurry of deals signed off by year-end.
Boeing's 2009 fortunes in the order stakes were stymied by the high number of cancellations for the 787, which dragged down its net sales to around the 100-aircraft mark. This year it will be looking to shore up the remainder of the Dreamliner's backlog and underline its ability to meet its revised schedule with a successful flight-test programme without further delivery slips.
Neither manufacturer has issued detailed 2010 production guidance, but after output hit a record 970-plus units last year few would expect that level to be sustained in 2010.
"Production needed to come down a year ago," says Aboulafia. "The glut of narrowbodies is particularly worrying."
In defence of their ability to keep producing despite the economic turmoil, the airframers cite the "myth" that 2009 delivery financing would be a major issue. In reality the gap did not materialise on the scale forecast by some analysts. After talk of shortfalls as high as $20 billion, Boeing Capital (BCC) data shows that the manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer) had to find just $2.5 billion of the $68 billion needed for 2009 deliveries.
Much of the shortfall was made up by the government-run export credit agencies, which provided $21 billion - up 68% on the $12.5 billion in 2008.
Aboulafia says that while it is "fun for a while" for the airframers to use government-backed finance to support what he believes is overproduction, "with traffic not likely to make much of a recovery in 2010, build rates will start to come down in the second half of the year".
BCC estimates that in 2010 the airframers will have to provide a similar level of financial support, although it expects that the overall delivery funding requirement will fall 8% to $62 billion due to reduced production rates.
Aboulafia believes that the two airframers should cut output by 10-15% this year, which would push the total deliveries to below 850 units. "But this industry is the ultimate lagging economic indicator. Production won't bottom out until 2011, or perhaps even 2012."
BCC's head of capital markets development, Kostya Zolotusky, argues that the airframers are maintaining high production in the face of the global slump because "the aircraft are needed", due to three fundamental dynamic changes.
He says: "The global balance of demand is broader; there is a greater diversity of airline business models than before - low cost leasing is a relevant counter-balance to the lack of demand from legacy carriers - and we are moving into a higher plateau of oil prices which necessitates a greater replacement requirement."
DELIVERY-SLOT SWAPS
This broadening of the "balance of demand" made 2009 the year of "delivery-slot swaps". Airlines in regions less affected by the slump - for example Gulf carriers Gulf Air, FlyDubai and Qatar Airways - were able to advance their schedules by taking over other airlines' airframes as they approached the end of the production line. This helped keep production up without the usual glut of white tails, but whether the airline industry will have the same appetite for this in 2010 remains to be seen.
In terms of civil programmes, Airbus and Boeing have fairly full "to-do" lists this year. Top of the US airframer's list is to push the 787 through flight-testing without further hitches, and to get the 747-8 in the air. Both aircraft are due for first deliveries by year-end - for now at least.
Meanwhile, Toulouse will start to see the fruits of its A350 XWB development effort as major sections of the first aircraft should start to come together at plants across Europe and the USA ahead of final assembly beginning early in 2011.
A more immediate priority is to complete flight-testing of the A330-200F and begin deliveries to Etihad Airways in the summer.
Sorting out A380 production is also a pressing requirement, as Airbus admits that the process of assembling and customising the super jumbo continues to take too long. Expect the airframer to implement more changes in Toulouse and Hamburg, sooner rather than later.
In terms of product development, there could be some key decisions taken by Airbus and Boeing in 2010, and all linked to engines. Both airframers look increasingly likely to develop re-engined versions of the current single-aisle products powered by one or more of the next generation turbofans in development by CFM International, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce. Potential developments could crystallise over the next 12 months as the engine makers firm up their own plans.
Any moves from the big two will increase the pressure on Bombardier to sign up more airlines for its CSeries small airliner, having so far only secured a deal from Lufthansa/Swiss and lessor LCI.
"It badly needs a second notable customer," says Aboulafia. "Despite the grim times, there's a good chance of someone signing up in 2010, but if Airbus and Boeing turn aggressive about re-engining their products in 2010, all bets are off on the CSeries."
Embraer is also evaluating a move into the CSeries space, but it too wants more clarity from the engine makers - and a better steer on the likely moves from Airbus and Boeing - before it commits. If this does happen in 2010, expect to see Embraer in the thick of it.
At the other end of the spectrum, Boeing seems to be coming under pressure to decide what it does about the adapting its successful 777 twinjet to be more effective against the A350. The airframer is examining various options from a refresh, a re-wing and an all-new aircraft, but the likelihood is that whatever it goes for will hinge on the availability of a new engine - probably from existing exclusive supplier GE.
Russia and China are gearing up to be right in the mix of the next generation single-aisle market, with both having all-new airliners in development that will be powered by next-generation powerplants from P&W and CFM respectively. More clarity should emerge on these programmes during 2010.
REGIONAL ARRIVALS
Down among the regionals, there should be a raft of new arrivals in 2010, the most notable of which will be the two brand-new airliners from Russia and China that are due to make their debuts - the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and Comac ARJ21. Both types had originally been due to enter service in 2009, but should now begin earning money this year.
Bombardier meanwhile will finally introduce what should be the last iteration of its big selling regional jet, the 100-seat CRJ1000, but will it prove to be as stretch too far?
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