http://news.yam.com/cna/international/200807/20080719660275.html
美四學者撰文強調布希應信守對台軍售承諾
中央社╱中央社 2008-07-19 22:19
（中央社記者林琳紐約十九日專電）包括曾任美國國防部中國科科長卜大年在內的四位曾在布希政府任職的美國智庫學者今天在「華爾街日報」發表評論，強調美國總統布希應該信守提供武器給台灣以維護安全的承諾。
評論指出，二零零一年布希總統甫上任時做出一項有膽識且有原則的決定，將提供台灣多項軍事配備以維安全。但是，到了二零零八年即將卸任之前，布希看來已食言。
太平洋美軍司令吉亭上將十六日證實，布希政府已凍結對台軍售。他也透露，北京向他明確表示非常關切對台軍售的問題。
包括美國企業研究所的卜大年、普林斯頓大學教授佛里特貝克、卡內基國際和平基金會資深研究員狄利斯以及阿米塔吉國際公司合夥人薛瑞福四位學者強調，凍結對台軍售的決定不只是錯誤，而且危險。
評論指出，中華人民共和國在急速擴充軍備，而它的武力擴張也包括針對台灣部署的武器─數百枚短程導向飛彈、無數的新型戰鬥轟炸機及各型攻擊性的潛艇。
布希政府原本根據台灣關係法建議一項提高台灣防衛能力的軍售項目，雖然台北與華府的軍事專家對於這些項目有不同意見，提出這項軍售充分展現美國長久以來協助台灣防衛的承諾，也是讓台灣能更堅強地防止中國可能進犯的重要因素。提供這項軍售也符合布希總統承諾的：美國將不計一切來防衛台灣。
評論指出，除了軍售之外，布希也改變了台灣安全協防的關係，例如容許台灣要求其他的武器系統。台灣希望購買F-16戰機來取代老舊的機群。
評論指出，很不幸的，台灣方面也因為國內政治問題，導致對於美國提出的軍售無法快速進行。目前布希政府看來已經不願意繼續這項交易。
布希政府為何會改變方向？評論指出，布希政府認為台灣前總統陳水扁是一位魯莽的挑釁者，執意將台灣推向獨立，甚至不考慮戰爭的風險。一些布希政府的官員擔心出售武器給台灣只會讓他氣焰更盛，所以他們對於台北方面在這項問題上的持續混亂及難以決定，反而私下竊喜。
評論指出，不論這樣的考慮是否合理，現在都不合適了。二零零八年五月台灣人民選出的新總統馬英九就職，他致力於改善兩岸關係，避免陳水扁的聳動高調。不過，馬總統也堅持要加強台灣自衛能力。
四位學者認為，自從二零零一年的恐怖份子攻擊事件之後，布希政府一直希望避免和北京對立，同時在許多問題上也希望得到北京的支持，尤其是在解除北韓核武方面。雖然中國能有多大幫助仍是可討論的問題，布希政府的亞洲政策在許多方面都愈來愈以不冒犯北京為重要考量。
他們強調，不計代價只要不冒犯中國的政策並不符合美國在台灣海峽的利益。首先，從實力的角度來看，它損害到馬總統與北京交涉的能力，如果台灣人民期望統一，甚至損及兩岸的和平統一。
學者們認為，不讓台灣擁有至少能因應中國大幅武力擴張的能力，也增加了美國部隊在萬一台海爆發衝突而他們必須干預時的負擔。
對於布希政府提到對台軍售會破壞兩岸關係及美國與中國的關係，學者們認為是言過其實。北京在七年前就認定華盛頓會出售所承諾提供的武器給台灣。北京空軍增加了數百架戰機，根本沒有軍事上的理由可以抱怨美國出售六十六架F-16戰機給台灣。這些武器的項目中，沒有任何一項會大幅提高台灣軍事攻擊的能力。
評論指出，台灣方面軍購的預算在今年年底就將失效，而美國國會認可軍售案的程序也需要相當的時間，所以美國政府應有立即的行動。
學者們強調，這項軍售案不只關係到一個美國的民主友人的防衛，也關係到馬英九政府的可信度。它也關係到美國在亞太地區保護其自身長期利益及布希保衛自由的決定。
如果美國不能有適當行動，會立下一個危險的前例。這將顯示，自中國開放以來，美國政府第一次為了討好北京而規避其協助台灣的義務。
學者們指出，現在正是美國改變政策的時候，應該信守原則並且務實。
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121642123138566537.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Bush Should Keep His Word on Taiwan
By DAN BLUMENTHAL, AARON FRIEDBERG, RANDALL SCHRIVER and ASHLEY J. TELLIS
July 19, 2008; Page A9
In 2001, President Bush made a bold and principled decision to offer Taiwan a range of military equipment for its security. In 2008, as he prepares to leave office, the president seems to have reneged on that commitment.
On Wednesday, Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, confirmed that the administration has frozen arms sales to the island nation, acknowledging Beijing's displeasure by way of explanation. "The Chinese have made clear to me their concern over any arms sales to Taiwan," he said at a Heritage Foundation forum in Washington. However, the decision to freeze arms sales is mistaken and dangerous.
The People's Republic of China has been expanding its military capabilities at a rapid pace. Included in this impressive buildup are weapons directly intended for use against Taiwan: hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles, scores of new fighter bombers and several types of attack submarines. In accordance with the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the Bush administration originally proposed an arms package designed to improve Taiwan's capacity for self-defense. Included were Patriot 3 missile-defense systems, P3C antisubmarine warfare aircraft, Apache helicopters, Kidd-class destroyers, diesel submarines and a modern command, control and communications system.
While defense experts in Taipei and Washington debated the utility of some of these systems for Taiwan's defense, as a package they constituted a powerful signal of America's long-standing commitment to Taiwan's defense and contained important elements of a stronger Taiwanese deterrent against potential Chinese aggression. The offer made good on Mr. Bush's promise that the U.S. would "do whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan.
In addition to the arms package, Mr. Bush also altered policy to normalize security relations with Taiwan, permitting it to request additional weapons systems as its military identified new requirements. Taiwan subsequently asked for 66 F-16 aircraft to replace its aging fighter fleet.
Unfortunately, Taiwan's domestic politics prevented speedy action on elements of the original U.S. offer. While it purchased the Kidd-class destroyers, the P3C aircraft, some elements of a missile defense system and a new command and control system, much of the American package became hostage to partisan bickering in Taipei. After significant delay, last year Taiwan's legislature finally acted, appropriating the money required to purchase most of the rest of the items offered by the U.S. in 2001.
The Bush administration now appears unwilling to follow through on its side of the bargain.
Why the volte-face? Following its initial offer of assistance, the Bush administration came to regard former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian as a reckless provocateur, determined to push his self-governing island toward formal independence from Beijing despite the risk of war. Fearful that selling Mr. Chen arms would only embolden him, some administration officials were quietly thankful for the continuing turmoil and indecision in Taipei.
Whatever the validity of these concerns, they no longer apply. In May 2008, the Taiwanese people elected opposition leader Ma Ying-jeou to the presidency. Mr. Ma is dedicated to improving cross-straits ties and eschews Mr. Chen's inflammatory rhetoric. But, like his predecessor, he is committed to strengthening Taiwan's self-defense capabilities.
Since Sept. 11, 2001, the Bush administration has been anxious to avoid antagonizing Beijing and eager to win its support on a variety of issues, especially its continuing efforts to denuclearize North Korea. Though the extent to which China has actually been helpful is debatable, the administration has increasingly subordinated many aspects of its Asia policy to the overarching aim of not offending Beijing.
The policy of not offending China, no matter what the costs, does not serve U.S. interests in the Taiwan Straits. First, it undermines Mr. Ma's ability to deal with Beijing from a position of strength, and to that extent it undermines the common objective of peaceful reunification, should the Taiwanese desire it.
Denying Taiwan the minimal capabilities required to cope with China's massive military buildup also increases the burdens on U.S. forces if they should ever intervene in a future cross-straits confrontation.
Moreover, the administration overstates the damage arms sales to Taiwan will do to cross-strait relations and to the overall relationship between the U.S. and China, important as that is. Beijing presumes Washington would move forward with arms it promised to sell to Taiwan some seven years ago. And, after adding several hundred advanced fighters to its own fleet, Beijing has no military reason to complain about the sale of 66 F-16s to Taiwan. None of the elements in the U.S. arms package in any case seriously increases Taiwan's offensive capabilities -- which are inconsequential to begin with.
Meanwhile, time is running out. The funds Taipei has appropriated to buy arms from the U.S. will lapse by the end of the 2008 and become unavailable. The process of Congressional notification necessary to conclude the sale too is lengthy and requires immediate administration action.
The administration should therefore move urgently to supply Taiwan with the capabilities promised in defense against China's growing ballistic missile, air and naval threats. Leaving office without approving these sales would be a strategic failure with far-reaching implications.
At stake is not only the defense of a democratic friend, but the credibility of the Ma government. Also at stake are America's commitment to protect its long-term interests throughout the Asia-Pacific, and Mr. Bush's determination to defend freedom. Failure to act would also set a dangerous precedent. For the first time since its opening to China, the U.S. government would have sidestepped its obligation to assist Taiwan in hopes of appeasing Beijing. Now is the time to change policy and move forward: both principle and pragmatism demand it.
Mr. Blumenthal is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Friedberg is professor of politics at Princeton. Mr. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Schriver is a partner at Armitage International. All served in Asia policy positions under George W. Bush.
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