http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4459062&c=AIR&s=TOP
USAF Chief Scientist Looking To Change Game
By michael hoffman
Published: 18 Jan 2010 13:01
The U.S. Air Force's chief scientist is doing his best Merlin, gazing into his crystal ball to see what technologies will run the Air Force in 2030.
What J.A. Dahm sees are cruise missiles that fly 4,000 mph and unmanned aircraft the size of bugs with wings that flap.
"We are not trying to do a complete environmental scan of all technologies. That's really just too much and not valuable," said Dahm, a professor of aerospace engineering who is taking a leave of absence from the University of Michigan. "We are trying to find just those massively disproportionately valuable technologies that could really have game-changing capabilities."
Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz ordered the study by Dahm's office so the Air Force can put money into the technologies it will need in 20 years. Service officials will receive briefs on "Technology Horizons" in February.
Dahm considers the timing of the study perfect for two reasons: a look-ahead hasn't been done since 1995, and planning is crucial as budgets shrink.
"It is exactly the time you need greater clarity on what technologies are going to be valuable so that you invest in the ones that are really going to provide payoff," he said.
Rather than focus on specific systems, Dahm and his staff members have looked for themes that they expect technology to follow. For example, Dahm expects to see a gradual shift from "manned to unmanned, larger systems to smaller systems," "controlled to increasingly more autonomous" and "exquisite to composable systems."
The themes that Dahm's office has pinpointed:
■ Composable systems: In the past, weapons systems have been what Dahm calls "exquisite," or built for one purpose. Now, with the emphasis on spending less, the Air Force should instead develop technology that allows different systems to collaborate and create different capabilities, he said.
Dahm compared a composable system to the way Dell sells computers - a buyer signs on to the Dell Web site, designs his laptop and has it delivered in days. He wants ground commanders to have a similar capability. A commander recognizes a need - for example, an ISR satellite - and the Air Force could launch "a 75 or 80 percent solution" in weeks, not years.
■ Unmanned aircraft: Unmanned technology will move toward more autonomy and smaller systems - many no bigger than a dragonfly. Those Micro Air Vehicles, or MAVs, aren't far off, either.
"You'd be shocked how close we are," Dahm said. "We have flapping-wing systems 10 centimeters in size that will fly all throughout this building wherever you want it to go. … We can build those systems today."
The Air Force Research Laboratory issued a report last year that puts an MAV in the air by 2015.
Dahm and the laboratory's scientists expect the MAVs to be used mostly in cities because of their size and the agility that the flapping-wing technology gives them.
■ Hypersonic speed: A plane or a missile traveling at Mach 6, or about 4,000 mph, isn't far-fetched - or far off.
In mid-February, the service will put its 20-plus years of work on super-fast engines to the test when the Boeing X-51 demonstration aircraft makes its first hypersonic test flight fueled by jet propellant. The WaveRider made its first flight Dec. 9, firmly tucked under the wing of a B-52H Stratofortress. Hydrogen powered the X-43, the first aircraft that tested a hypersonic engine.
Unlike hydrogen, jet propellant keeps the engine cool as well as lit - key to keeping an aircraft in the air at such high speeds. When the X-43 flew, it was aloft only a few seconds or it would have melted. The X-51 will fly for five minutes because engineers found a way to allow the jet propellant molecules to crack, which will cool the engine and keep the engine fire stable longer.
"Imagine a match," he said. "When you blow on that match, it goes out. Now imagine blowing at Mach 6 on that match and keeping it lit."
Cruise missiles will get hypersonic engines first, followed by "hypersonic flight vehicles primarily for ISR applications" and space delivery vehicles, Dahm predicted. He didn't specify exactly when, though.
■ Manpower: Technological advances, according to Dahm, can be as down to earth as changing how many airmen must deploy to a Combined Air Operations Center.
In the next 20 years, the Air Force will automate many of the jobs airmen now fill.
"Ever think about CAOC operations where there are a tremendous number of people performing huge numbers of missions or pieces of missions to support the mission inside the CAOC? A lot of that could be automated today," he said.
Not only will automation reduce the size of the force, it will also cut down on the time it takes to make a decision in theater.
"We'll see a target and now we have a whole bunch of steps we have to go through, much of it inside the CAOC ... to reach a decision point on whether we want to strike or not," Dahm said. "But a lot of that can be automated today, and it reduces the number of manpower that has to sit in the CAOC, and all the logistics and other costs that come with that."
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