http://news.yam.com/afp/international/200803/20080330002731.html
分析家：棄核僵局似肇因北韓軍方強硬派作梗
法新社╱劉學源 2008-03-30 21:20
（法新社華盛頓二十九日電）美國專家表示，影響力龐大的北韓軍方強硬派，可能正在抗拒一項由美國主導、說服共黨北韓揚棄核武的協議。美國專家指稱，北韓若揚棄核武，軍方所受衝擊最大。北韓於二十八日試射多枚短程飛彈，發出它可能會停止依多邊協議將核子設施去功能化的警訊。
最近走訪平壤歸來的美國參院資深助理魯斯，於提呈參院外交委員會的報告中指出，北韓軍方可能會破壞「以援助換取棄核方案」，金正日領導的北韓政府先前在美國、中國、南北韓、日本及俄羅斯召開的六方會談中達成前述協議。
擔任重量級共和黨籍參議員魯嘉專業幕僚的魯斯，在報告中質疑說，「北韓軍方是否正在抗拒外交部與美國等其他五國進行實質交往的努力？」，他繼而指出，「金正日精心安排讓北韓內部相互競爭勢力取得均衡，對北韓軍方強硬派而言或許已超出限度。」
根據法新社取得的報告副本，魯斯在報告中表示，「申報和揚棄軍備中的主力，對於視核武為終極嚇阻武力的那批人而言勢必很難接受。」
魯斯上個月走訪北韓，評估平壤當局為何不願全面申報其核武計畫以及疑似擴散核武技術的理由。
根據六方會談達成的協議，北韓原本該於去年十二月底前完成申報，前述協議目前僅促使北韓關閉其寧邊核子設施以及接近完成去功能化作業。
北韓曾於去年十一月提出一份清單，但美國表示，該清單未全面交代北韓疑似從事的鈾濃縮計畫以及涉嫌擴散核武技術予敘利亞情事。
不願具名的一位北韓問題美國專家表示，「魯斯的觀察一針見血。」
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080329/pl_afp/nkoreanuclearweaponsus_080329174140
NKorean military hardliners seen behind nuclear deal deadlock
by P. Parameswaran
Sat Mar 29, 1:41 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Hardliners in North Korea's powerful military may be resisting a US-led deal for the hardline communist state to disband its nuclear weapons program, according to US experts.
The military, the experts said, will be the most impacted by any surrender of atomic arms by North Korea, which on Friday fired a volley of missiles with a warning it might stop disabling its nuclear arsenal as part of an agreed multilateral deal.
Keith Luse, a senior US Senate official, suggested in a report on his return from a recent trip to Pyongyang that the North Korean military could possibly unravel the aid-for-disarmament deal which the administration of Kim Jong-il reached with the United States, China, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia.
In his report to the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Luse asked, "Is the North Korean military resisting MFA (ministry of foreign affairs) efforts to substantively engage with the US and the other five countries?"
He then replied, "Chairman Kim's best efforts to orchestrate a balance among competing interests within the North, may be a 'stretch too far' for North Korean military hardliners.
"Declaring and discarding the jewel of their arsenal will be difficult for those viewing it as the ultimate deterrent," Luse said in the report, a copy of which was obtained by AFP.
Luse, a senior professional staff of ranking Republican Senator Richard Lugar, was in North Korea last month to determine, among other questions, why Pyongyang was reluctant to provide a full declaration of its nuclear programs and weapons as well as its alleged proliferation activities.
North Korea was to have submitted the declaration by the end of December under the deal, which so far had led to the shutdown and near disabling of a key plutonium-producing reactor in Yongbyon.
Pyongyang submitted a list last November but the United States says it has not accounted fully for a suspected uranium enrichment program and allegations of nuclear proliferation to Syria.
"Luse's observations are right on," said an American expert on North Korea, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"It is generally thought that Kim Jong-il is on the side of the angels so to speak, the engagers, but he can't ramp things on the throats of the military as the military rice bowl is the most endangered by this action, by getting rid of the nuclear weapons," the expert said.
The assessments by Luse and the Korea expert preceded those of Christopher Hill, the chief US envoy to the six-party talks on the nuclear deal, who this week referred to some "people" in North Korea who were against ending the pursuit of nuclear weapons.
"I think it is fair to say that there are people in North Korea who really are not with the program here, really rather continue to be producing this plutonium for whatever reason," he said.
"North Korea is a country that has a very vertically oriented governing structure to be sure ... but at the same time it is place for politics," Hill said.
Kim's administration had informed Washington on a number of occasions that it wanted to get the nuclear deal done before President George W. Bush left office in January 2009.
But after failing to give the full declaration of its nuclear arsenal, the reclusive state raised the stakes Friday by test-firing several missiles and warning it may slow down disabling its atomic facilities.
The White House criticized the missile tests as "not constructive" and urged Pyongyang to focus instead on dismantling its nuclear facilities.
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