說一下台灣，馬英九的633競選支票兌現無期，市場上對房價及利率持悲觀態度，但問題是，經濟已經走緩，美元一如過去回復強勢，那麼台灣還有多少升息空間？因此利率不是重點，央行總裁彭淮南在這方面應該會節制。房價走空的趨勢不變，在利率凍漲的情形下，房價的適度向下修正反而有助於市場健康。
Market shows inflation expectations at five-year low
Bond traders 'aren't rushing for protection' amid drop in growth, commodities
By
Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:37 p.m. EDT Sept. 5, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A global economic slowdown finally seems
to be trumping inflation expectations, judging from trading signals
given off by the bond market.
One of the key indications of the market's inflation expectations is
the spread between yields on 10-year Treasury notes
and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, known as TIPS.
This gap represents the rate of inflation that
investors in the $515 billion market expect over the life of the debt.
TIPS pay investors a coupon plus the rate of inflation as measured by
the government's consumer price index, effectively eliminating any
erosion in the return on fixed-income securities caused by price
inflation.
"With commodity prices
falling, people are putting two and two together, said William
O'Donnell, U.S. bond strategist at UBS Securities. "The weaker global
growth and weaker commodity prices in lockstep is a toxic combination
for inflation. People are not rushing for inflation protection."
The gap
between regular 10-year Treasurys and TIPS yields has fallen to 1.93%,
a level not seen since 2003. The drop in commodity prices, chiefly oil,
is being interpreted as easing pressure on virtually all other kinds of
prices.
The gap between regular 10-year Treasurys and TIPS
yields has fallen to 1.93%, a level not seen since 2003. The drop in
commodity prices, chiefly oil, is being interpreted as easing pressure
on virtually all other kinds of prices.
That's a big drop for the so-called breakeven rate from 2.57% in July,
just before crude-oil futures hit an all-time high above $147 a barrel.
The benchmark crude contract fell below $106 a barrel at one point on
Friday.
See Futures Movers.
"Inflation pressures have been taken off, along with the decline in
commodity prices," said Alex Li, interest-rate strategist at Credit
Suisse. "If energy prices are dropping, there's no need for companies
to pass that along to consumers."
Along these lines,
signs of further economic weakness around the world suggest oil prices
may even go as low as $87 a barrel in the next three to six months,
according to UBS.
And in a key survey
this week, businesses not engaged in manufacturing say that price
increases for inputs slowed in August. The prices paid component of the
Institute for Supply Management's services index, released Thursday,
declined to 72.9 from 80.8.
See related story.
Hardly deflation
Still, the differences between the current environment and 2003 may
point to the current breakeven rate being too low, noted Michael Pond,
Treasury and inflation-linked strategist at Barclays Capital, one of
the largest dealers of TIPS.
The last time the
breakeven rate was this low, the actual inflation rate as measured by
the Labor Department's consumer price index was significantly lower. In
the year through July 2003, roughly when the TIPS breakeven was this
low, actual CPI was 2.1%.
The index has jumped 5.6% in the 12 months through this July, the most recent data available.
See full CPI story.
Also back in 2003, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, then a Fed
governor, and predecessor Alan Greenspan were more worried about
deflation in the economy and were intent on creating a floor for the
inflation rate to prevent that by lowering interest rates, Pond said.
"If inflation falls
below what the market is pricing in for the next few years, I would
expect an aggressive response from the Fed to push inflation back up to
avoid the risk of deflation," via lowering interest rates, Pond said.
"It's possible that inflation comes in where the market is priced, but
it's not likely and there is clear upside risk."
The Fed's role
For now, interest-rate futures traders have eliminated bets the Fed
will increase its target lending rate from 2% as a deteriorating
employment market drags down economic growth.
As recently as
Thursday, the December futures contract showed a one-in-four chance of
a rate hike, to 2.25%. Earlier this year, the futures market showed
expectations of several increases from the current 2% target rate to
curb inflation.
Plenty of investors say
the breakeven has gone too low and are looking for a buying opportunity
in TIPS, Pond said. A lot of the recent TIPS selling activity has come
from managers reducing positions in commodities, therefore possibly
undoing hedges in TIPS.
"Over the next couple
months, we expect TIPS to perform well versus nominal Treasurys," Pond
said. He said some investors are sure inflation won't go as low as the
current breakeven rate and they want protection against rising prices.
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