2023旅遊大趨勢—氣候變遷將重塑旅遊業新貌Climate change to re-shape tourism

翻譯：張顧獻、賴鵬智

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/oct/13/network-travel-and-transport

Tuesday 13 October 2009 12.48 BST

根據一份「旅遊業的未來」報告指出，在接下來的14年內，高能源成本、水資源匱乏、人口老化及恐怖主義很可能會戲劇性地改變旅遊業的版圖。
High energy costs, water scarcity, an ageing population and terrorism are likely to dramatically change the tourism landscape over the next 14 years, according to a report on the future of tourism.

由英國永續發展智庫「未來論壇」（Forum for the Future）所撰寫的「2023旅遊大趨勢」（Tourism 2023）指出，氣候變遷會徹底改變旅遊景點，而不斷膨脹的亞洲人口將會戲劇性的轉移旅遊交通動線，並使得許多現有的全球轉運樞紐空轉（因為過剩）。
Tourism 2023, a "what-if?" report from sustainability think tank Forum for the Future, suggests that climate change could drastically change the destinations that people are willing to visit, and that a ballooning population in Asia will lead to a dramatic shift in tourism traffic patterns that could cause congestion problems at a number of global transport hubs.

報告提到：「由於氣候變遷及與日俱增的人口壓力等因素，我們可以預期，當需求與供給無法齊頭並進時，許多地方獲取主要資源如糧食、建材及能源等的成本將攀升。」
"Against this backdrop of a changing climate and increasing pressures from growing populations, we can expect the cost of key resources such as food, building materials and energy to rise in many places as demand grows and supplies fail to keep pace," the report said.

這份報告將2023年的旅遊業趨勢分成四個象限，所有情況均指出，旅遊業將面對主要由氣候變遷衝擊及新興潔淨科技所帶來的改變。
It posits four possible scenarios for the state of the tourism market in 2023, all of which suggest the industry will face major changes as a result of climate change impacts and emerging clean technologies.

「繁榮興盛篇」（Boom and burst）描述新科技將使綠色旅遊更容易實踐，而老化人口也會在其他地方（譯按：對英國人而言）度過醫療假期以進行便宜的手術。
"Boom and burst" describes a world in which new technologies make green travel easier, and where an ageing population takes medical holidays for cheap operations elsewhere.

相對的，「憂心忡忡篇」（divided disquiet）則指出不穩定的政治局勢將使許多國際景點不受大眾青睞，而以世界末日作為主要訴求的遊程卻異軍突起，因為會有大量的遊客爭相遊賞即將消逝的自然美景（譯按：如大堡礁、九寨溝、冰河）。
In contrast, "divided disquiet" suggests that political instability will have made many world destinations unpalatable, except for doomsday tourism, where people flock to see rapidly disappearing natural resources.

最後，在「價格與富人專屬篇」（price and privilege）預見上漲的燃料及能源成本會使許多人覺得長途旅行相當昂貴；而在「節能減碳篇」（carbon clampdown）指出立法措施 (如個人碳額度)加上更多有關氣候變遷風險的環境教育，也會導致國際旅遊的需求逐漸萎縮。
Finally, the report warns that a "price and privilege" scenario could see rising fuel and energy costs make long-distance travel too expensive for most people, while a "carbon clampdown" where legislative measures such as personal carbon credits combine with greater education on the risks associated with climate change could similarly lead to reduced demand for international travel.

此報告發表同時，也誕生新的旅遊業聯盟，成員均為業界龍頭，如英國旅行業同業公會（Trade association ABTA-Association of British Travel Agents）、英國航空公司（British Airways）、英國嘉年華遊輪集團（Carnival UK）、英國合作旅行社（The Co-operative Travel）、英國旅遊基金會（The Travel Foundation）、英國Thomas Cook旅遊集團（譯按：英國最大旅行社）以及英國TUI旅遊集團（TUI Travel），這個聯盟希望在2023年以前，可以發展出更具永續性的旅遊方法。
The publication of the report was accompanied by the launch of a new coalition of leading industry players, including trade association ABTA, British Airways, Carnival UK, The Co-operative Travel, The Travel Foundation, Thomas Cook and TUI Travel, which will aim to develop more sustainable tourism practices by 2023.

ABTA的執行長Mark Tanzer說：「重要的是，如果想保有成功且可以獲利的未來，對於像旅遊業這樣的跨國產業而言，將是一大挑戰。藉由共同努力，我們可以想出創新又可行的解決方案，並符合商業效益。」
"It is vital that the travel and tourism industry meets the challenges that an international industry faces if we want to have a successful and profitable future," said Mark Tanzer, ABTA chief executive. "By working together we can come up with practical and innovative solutions to these challenges, which make sound commercial sense."

預期這個團體將致力於推動低碳景點與旅遊方式、減少需掩埋的廢棄物、加強將商業利潤回饋給在地社區，以及提升度假區的用水效率。
The group is expected to focus on measures for promoting low carbon destinations and travel options, reducing landfill waste, better returning economic benefits back to local communities, and improving resort water efficiency.

2023旅遊大趨勢（Tourism 2023）英文全文PDF檔位址：http://www.forumforthefuture.org.uk/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf