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一則中國媒體低調，西方頭條的新聞: 中東群眾紛紛掀起大規模反腐敗反獨裁示威
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28 January 2011 Last updated at 18:09 GMT Egypt protests: Curfew in cities as army deployed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ Egypt has extended its curfew to all cities as anti-government demonstrators in Cairo besiege key buildings, including the foreign ministry and the state broadcaster. The headquarters of the governing NDP party has been set ablaze. President Hosni Mubarak, facing the biggest challenge to his authority of his 31 years in power, has ordered the army onto the streets of Cairo. He is due to make a statement, his first since protests began on Tuesday. Across the country, tens of thousands of protesters turned out after Friday prayers and clashed with police. The curfew is now in effect, but live television pictures from Cairo continue to show large crowds on the streets. BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab, in Cairo, says despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and television and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people, he says. http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-01/28/c_121034517_2.htm 综合外国媒体报道，埃及爆发的大规模反政府抗议活动当地时间1月27日进入第三天，已造成至少6人死亡、数百人被抓捕。在这一敏感时期，有消息称埃及83岁总统穆巴拉克的儿子贾迈勒已悄然逃亡英国，不过埃及官方否认了这一说法。 更大规模示威在即？ 深受不久前突尼斯骚乱推翻政府的影响，埃及数万民众25日走上首都开罗的街头，抗议穆巴拉克长达30年的统治。示威活动很快演变成了大规模的警民冲突，警方动用橡皮子弹、催泪瓦斯及水炮等试图驱散示威者，后者则用石块和燃烧瓶等进行还击。 26日，示威者在开罗市中心点燃了汽车轮胎，在埃及东北部港市苏伊士，示威者还焚烧了一座政府大楼。他们还计划在27日发起更大规模的抗议活动，一名组织者在社交网站“脸谱”上留言说：“埃及的穆斯林和基督教信徒们将联合起来，共同反抗腐败和失业。”招集参加者的帖子发出以后，数小时内便有2.4万多名网友留言表示支持。 在前两天的冲突中已有至少5名示威者和1名警察不幸丧生，另有约250人受伤，其中包括85名警察。埃及内政部公布的消息称，截至26日埃及全国各地共有500人被捕，不过一个独立的律师协会则表示，被捕者的数量应该在1200人以上。 巴拉迪欲返回埃及 目前居住在奥地利首都维也纳的埃及改革派代表、下届总统大选的热门人物穆罕默德 巴拉迪26日在接受采访时表示，他希望尽快返回埃及加入这场声势浩大的抗议活动。 巴拉迪说：“我一定要返回开罗并走到大街上去，因为事实上我已别无选择。大量市民走上街头原本是希望事情能够变好而不是变坏，但可惜的是，政府至今似乎还没有弄清楚人们上街的原因。” 巴拉迪曾于1997至2009年间担任国际原子能机构（IAEA）总干事，并于2005年获得了诺贝尔和平奖，他在埃及内外都颇具声望，有分析人士认为，巴拉迪返回埃及后很可能会成为这场抗议活动的核心组织者和领导者。 总统儿子或已外逃 一家总部位于美国的阿拉伯语新闻网站26日爆料称，穆巴拉克的儿子贾迈勒已乘坐私人飞机前往英国首都伦敦，同行的还有贾迈勒的妻子和女儿。 报道还说，现年48岁的贾迈勒已经被穆巴拉克指定为接班人，他在逃亡时携带了将近100件行李，至于里面究竟装有何种重要物品则不得而知。 对此消息，埃及驻美国大使馆发言人卡里姆 哈格各进行了坚决否认，他说目前穆巴拉克和他的全部家人都在埃及国内，有关他们家中有人已经逃往他国的报道都是“毫无根据的”。 国际社会表达关注 美国白宫26日以总统奥巴马的名义发表了一份书面声明，在表示支持的同时呼吁埃及政府进行“顺应民意的改革”。 声明说：“埃及政府目前面临一个重要机会，它应该顺应人民的意愿，在政治、经济和社会等各方面进行改革，以提高他们的生活质量并实现埃及的长久繁荣。为了达到这些目标，美国政府决定和埃及政府及人民共同努力。” 英国外交大臣威廉 黑格也发表声明，敦促穆巴拉克向示威者“做出妥协”。 巴林国王哈马德给穆巴拉克打电话表达支持，他还呼吁阿拉伯国家的领导人们尽快举行会议，“采取一种着眼于阿拉伯国家未来和进步的战略措施，以便更好的维护阿拉伯人民的利益、安全和稳定”。
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28 February 2011 Last updated at 15:09 GMT  Following the fall of the presidents of Egypt and Tunisia, unrest has spread in the Middle East A veteran Vietnamese activist has been arrested after calling for a Middle East-style uprising in the country. Nguyen Dan Que, 69, was later released but faces further questioning after an alleged internet appeal for the overthrow of the communist government. Mr Que was detained in Ho Chi Minh City on Saturday. The democracy advocate has spent a total of 20 years in jail. Following the fall of the presidents of Egypt and Tunisia, unrest has been spreading throughout the Middle East. Analysts say the popular uprisings have also unnerved authoritarian governments further afield. Mr Que urged young Vietnamese to follow the lead of the Arab world, reports said. During a raid on his home, police allegedly seized thousands of anti-government documents, including an "appeal to all people" which called on the public to rise up against the government, the Tuoi Tre newspaper said. The family of Mr Que confirmed he had been released but told the BBC he had been asked to attend daily "interrogation sessions". Mr Que has been in and out of jail since 1978, after calling for a multi-party political system. He was last detained in 2003, after writing a series of internet articles criticising government curbs on journalists. He was sentenced to 30 months in jail for "abusing democratic rights to infringe upon the interests of the state", and was released in 2005 under an amnesty. In 1990 he was sentenced to 20 years in prison for his involvement in a political reform movement - but was granted amnesty in 1998 on the understanding he would resettle in the US - but he stayed in Vietnam.
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【美联社华盛顿2月25日电】一份美国秘密外交文件透露，在美国将利比亚从支持恐怖主义国家名单上删除3年后，利比亚领导人穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲曾提出帮助美国在非洲开展反恐行动。 根据维基揭秘网本周公布的一份备忘录，卡扎菲是在2009年5月与美国非洲司令部司令威廉·沃德将军会晤时提出上述提议的。但备忘录上没有说沃德将军有否对这位利比亚领导人的提议作出回应。 2003年，卡扎菲自愿结束利比亚的核武器计划。3年后，小布什政府将利比亚从美国的支持恐怖主义国家名单上删除，向两国恢复外交关系迈出一步。 美国国务院的这份信息将卡扎菲描述成一名精明、自私的独裁者。他在寻求阻碍美国在非洲设立军事基地和开展军事行动的同时，努力与美国建立更加密切的关系。卡扎菲一度警告美国不要相信阿拉伯领导人，并表示如果美国提出要求的话，他将在中东地区发挥某种没有阐明的作用。 卡扎菲还提到了中国在非洲的影响力与日俱增的问题，并预言北京将胜过华盛顿，因为中国不干涉别国内政。
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西方的中东政策支柱正在瓦解
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中國渾水摸魚的時候到了？ 丹尼尔·科尔斯基与本·犹大：西方的中东政策支柱正在瓦解 （2011-02-19）http://www.zaobao.com/yl/tx110219_001.shtml ● 丹尼尔·科尔斯基与本·犹大 拿破仑在两个世纪前抵达埃及时，预示了现代中东的开始。奥斯曼帝国（Ottoman Empire）灭亡已近90年，殖民主义统治结束已经50年，从伊拉克战争开始计算也已经有8年了。现在，发生在开罗的革命性抗议活动显示，另一场变革可能正在发生。 西方国家在中东地区发挥影响的三大支柱：强大的军事存在、密切的商业关系及一系列依赖美元的国家——正在瓦解。因此，今后几周和几个月出现的中东，可能会让西方国家更难以施加其影响力。 西方在中东军力的转弱 第一个支柱军事存在可以追溯到第一次世界大战后法国和英国对部分奥斯曼帝国的占领，并在冷战时期美国与苏联建立它们在这个地区的军事联系时获得加强。1955年，西方国家甚至强大到能够将土耳其、伊拉克、伊朗和巴基斯坦拉在一起签署了所谓的巴格达条约（Baghdad Pact），结成了一个西亚的“北约”。 1973年爆发的“赎罪日战争”（Yom Kippur War），清楚说明了西方和苏联在该地区的军事影响力。当叙利亚的米格战机（MIG）与以色列的“天鹰”式战机（Skyhawk）在戈兰高地上空激战之时，埃及军队的捷克斯洛伐克造130毫米火箭炮也开火了。但美国和苏联的影响不仅仅局限在战场上，它们在该地区国家的高层军事指挥系统中也发挥了重要作用。更近期，西方在波斯湾地区的军事设施，确保了冷战盟国的石油供应，防止伊拉克复兴党人和霍梅尼的伊朗夺取珍贵的油井或封锁出口通道。 但这个军事支柱一直被削弱。1980年在伊朗拯救美国人质的“鹰爪行动”（Operation Eagle Claw）的失败，便是一个早期的迹象。黎巴嫩真主党在1983年袭击美国驻贝鲁特海军陆战队营地，引发美国突然从黎巴嫩撤军，是这个支柱上的另一道裂纹。自2003年入侵伊拉克以来，美国已经将驻沙特阿拉伯的军队撤出，并发现其常规军事力量不一定能够转化为对当地的影响力。 中东国家的东向政策 商业关系这第二支柱也同样已经被削弱。美国曾经是海湾国家的重要贸易伙伴，但现在情况已经改变了。2009年，沙特将其2009年生产的原油的57％出口到远东，只有14％输往美国。为了对这根本的转变作出反应，阿卜杜拉国王自2005年开始便奉行“向东看”的政策，与远东国家的贸易额超过了600亿美元。 这种东向政策的结果，是中国超越美国，成为卡塔尔和阿联酋更大的贸易伙伴。卡塔尔几乎四分之一的贸易是与中国进行的，与美国的贸易额相比之下只占略超5％。同样的，阿联酋与中国、印度和韩国的贸易额占贸易总额的37％。对许多中东国家而言，中国的要求现在与美国的利益同等重要。 最后，美国在该地区不再拥有一系列相对稳定的代理人。美国认为它给予埃及、以色列和约旦的大规模援助，可以确保它们的稳定和在事关美国利益的课题上的合作。这种做法发挥了30年的作用，但如今这种关系正在减弱。 中东正形成新的地缘政治结构 过去10年间，西方影响力下降的速度似乎加快了。沙特在2003年就明确表示，他们不能再容许境内的美国军事设施。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡在其第一和第二任期内，在以色列和巴勒斯坦和平进程的问题上都拒绝按美国的意旨行事。此外，尽管境内有庞大的美军基地，卡塔尔仍与叙利亚和伊朗保持密切关系。 屋漏偏逢连夜雨，现在埃及又出现了起义。穆巴拉克曾是西方中东政策的基石：他对美国的潜在敌人毫不妥协；在与以色列的和平谈判中他肯定会出现；在对伊朗的立场上他也可以增加美国的实力。现在，美国与埃及的盟国关系正受到威胁，美国对整个中东的政策也是如此。 当西方中东政策的三大支柱正在瓦解时，与太平洋的贸易及不再效忠于一个强国的情况，让一个新的中东正在形成。北非的革命、土耳其的自信、伊朗的不妥协和伊拉克的大失败，正在塑造中东的地缘政治结构。西方国家会发现，最后出现的战略局势将是不容易应对的。 作者Daniel Korski是欧洲对外关系委员会高级政策研究员，Ben Judah则是委员会研究员。 英文原题：The West's Middle East Pillars of Sand 版权所有: Project Syndicate，2011.
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19 February 2011 Last updated at 04:57 GMT Bahrain protests: US watches with one eye on Iran  Protesters buried their dead in Bahrain on Friday Continue reading the main story If the popular uprising in Egypt gave Washington a real headache, the brutal crackdown on protesters in Bahrain involves even more complicated calculations for the Obama administration. The US has condemned the use of violence against protesters in Manama but it has chosen its words very carefully so far. On Thursday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "Bahrain is a friend and an ally and has been for many years and while all governments have a responsibility to provide citizens with security and stability, we call [for] restraint.'' President Barack Obama on Friday again spoke of universal rights, including the right to freedom of assembly, but American national interests hang in the balance, perhaps even more so than with Egypt. Hosni Mubarak had been a US ally for the last 30 years, a moderate president of a country with a peace treaty with Israel and a key partner in the peace process. But with the loud, overwhelming demand from the streets of Cairo for Mr Mubarak's departure, it became untenable to continue supporting him while professing to support those universal rights, so Washington took a gamble. It came to the conclusion it could let go of a president who had failed to implement reforms because the Egyptian army, underwritten by the US, would probably maintain the country on a moderate path that would be mostly acceptable to Washington and, by extension, Israel, at least in the short term. But when the US looks at Bahrain, it sees Iran and the picture blurs. Tehran and Washington have been foes since 1979 and Sunni kingdoms like Bahrain, but also its bigger neighbour Saudi Arabia, a vital US ally, are a crucial counterweight to Iran's growing influence in the region. Tight-lipped in Washington Bahrain is home to the US Navy's 5th fleet and is a key pillar for US regional military infrastructure. Iran's nuclear programme is a key concern for the US, for Israel and also for the Sunni monarchies. Tehran's regional influence has been growing and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has seized on events in Egypt as an Islamic awakening and the end of American hegemony in the region. Bahrain itself, with its large Shia population, has its own specific fears of Iran. In 1981, the Iranian-backed Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain attempted a coup in the country. Bahrain is linked by a causeway to Saudi Arabia, specifically its Shia-dominated and oil-rich Eastern province. Bahrain's Shia have long been discriminated against in the country and they say their protests have nothing to do with Iran and everything with wanting to be accepted as full Bahraini citizens. They accuse the authorities of waving the spectre of Iran to stop the West from supporting them. It may well be working for now. When hundreds of thousands of people took the streets in Egypt, many American officials, briefly forgetful of the complications this presented for their foreign policy, were glued to their television sets and some sounded ever so slightly excited at the sight of people power in action in the Arab world on such a scale. There is none of that enthusiasm about the unfolding events in Manama. The violence of the security forces has shocked many and the sectarian undertones, real or imagined, mean everybody is more careful about the positions they take in public. American officials have been very tight-lipped about their conversations with Arab rulers, only emphasising in public the need for real reform, repeatedly. It is an attempt by Washington to try to avoid having to choose again between an Arab leader and his people.
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15 February 2011 Last updated at 17:24 GMT Can Egypt's military meet people's demands?  Can the military maintain the people's trust for long? Continue reading the main story With the toppling of President Hosni Mubarak, Egyptians are turning to their new rulers, the military, for answers to political, social and economic problems. The BBC News website's Middle East editor Tarik Kafala reports from Cairo. Egypt's capital Cairo is a city under military rule. While life is getting back to normal and Tahrir Square has been cleared, there are tanks everywhere. In places the soldiers appear to be there for show - to reassure as much as anything else, and to be photographed with smiling citizens. Elsewhere, outside the state radio and television building and around Hosni Mubarak's former residence in the outskirts of the city, the soldiers mean business. They are heavily-armed, ranged behind coils of razor wide, tanks and armoured vehicles parked to form an impenetrable wall barrier. Anger at corruption On Monday, hundreds of blue collar workers gathered at the state TV building hoping to get as much attention as possible for their demands for better pay and working conditions. Mechanics and bus drivers waved pay slips, a record of what they see as their scandalously low pay. On printed sheets and banners, specific demands were made: Better pay, fairer contracts, and the sacking of named bosses who they said had personally benefited from the privatisations of public services. A figure of 1,200 Egyptian pounds (£126; $205) appeared on several banners - the minimum monthly wage that labour organisations have been campaigning for. It is about twice the average wage of a skilled Egyptian state employee. When asked how the transport department was suddenly expected to double the pay of thousands of workers, one protester said simply that the army should take over the department. Tamer Fathy, of the Centre for Trade Union and Workers Services, sees demands that are essentially economic or social as being inseparable from the wider demands for political rights. "People are calling for better pay. But behind it is a real anger at corruption, the deals made and bribes paid. The strikers are protesting at this above all." Search for the disappeared Activists for Democracy, a coalition that represents protesters, human rights groups and civil society groups, has crystallised what it says are the demands of the revolutionaries that saw off the 30 years of Mubarak rule. These include an interim government, a new constitution and parliament, an end to emergency law and democratic elections within six months. Some of these have been met, others may be in the near future.  Revolution won - but can the new leaders meet demands for better pay? But other demands, such as the release of political prisoners and the prosecution of police involved in recent abuses surrounding the protests, may be harder to meet. Ghada Shahbandar, a board member at the Egyptian Organisation of Human rights, says her group is trying to locate people who have disappeared during the recent protests. Her group is approaching the military, the interior ministry and the prime minister's office, in the hope of co-operation. She too expects the military rulers will deliver. "These are exceptional times. We will have to deal with the military temporarily to guarantee the political and social rights we are demanding. "Until we have evidence otherwise, we assume that that the army's involvement in politics will be temporary and we have to go along with the current situation." 'Waiting period' This trust, however weary, may be unrealistic. The Egyptian military was the backbone of the regime of Hosni Mubarak, it has its own economic interests and may not be the unified and disciplined institution that it seems from the outside. "We're in a waiting period, waiting for military communiques seven eight and nine," says Max Rodenbeck, the Economist's chief Middle East writer and a long-tern Cairo resident. "There are a number of mini-revolts under way in the many key government ministries, and we can expect a series of slow purges in government institutions, perhaps over years," he says. "One of the many worries is that the military is so isolated from society, that it has been for so long a world unto itself. This was very useful when it had to step in to take control of the situation in a crisis. But does it have the management and communications skills and network to manage this situation?" The immediate test is over the labour protests which have led to the closure of the post office and huge transport problems. The most recent military communique gently called on people to go back to work in the national interest. But the authorities may soon find themselves having to having to declare and enforce a moratorium on strikes.
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24 January 2011 Last updated at 20:21 GMT Iranian opposition activists hanged for protest footage  Iranian dissidents in Germany protested over the executions in Iran Iranian authorities have hanged two men convicted of taking part in protests following the disputed presidential election in 2009. Iranian prosecutors said Jafar Kazemi and Mohammad Ali Hajaghaei had taken photos and footage of the protests and distributed them on the internet. They were also found guilty of chanting slogans promoting the exiled People's Mujahideen of Iran (PMOI). A PMOI leader in France, Maryam Rajavi, described the executions as barbaric. The People's Mujahideen of Iran is an exiled opposition group which has campaigned against clerical rule in Iran and, before that, the Iranian monarchy. It is seen by Tehran as a terrorist cell in the pocket of Western security services but is also on Washington's list of proscribed organisations because of its history of violent attacks. After the presidential election in 2009, the internet - and specifically social networking sites - became a crucial means of mobilising hundreds of thousands of Iranians who disputed the results to protest. Hundreds of people were arrested after the protests and although most have been released, more than 80 people have been jailed for up to 15 years, and at least four other people convicted of involvement in the demonstrations are reported to be on death row.
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14 February 2011 Last updated at 13:27 GMT Iran opposition: Will Arab uprisings spread?  Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi was placed under house arrest As Iranian opposition groups threaten to rally in Tehran in support of the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, the BBC's Mohsen Asgari asks whether the Middle East political contagion could spread to Iran - the first non-Arab country. Iranian opposition leaders have issued a call for a peaceful rally in support of the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings to be held later today in Azadi Square - Tehran's counterpart of Cairo's now-famous Tahrir Square. "In order to show solidarity with the popular movements in the region and specifically the freedom-seeking movement by the Tunisian and Egyptian people against their autocratic governments, we hereby request a permit to call for a rally," Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi wrote in a letter to Iran's interior ministry last week. As widely expected, the authorities refused the permit. Instead, they put both men under house arrest and detained about a dozen of their key advisers. However, some opposition groups have vowed to defy the ban and to stage their rally in Tehran despite threats from officials that any protesters will be punished. 'Day of rage' In recent days, there has been much talk of Egypt's political contagion wending its way through the Arab world and into Iran - the first non-Arab country to be caught up in the revolutionary fever. "If Egypt and Tunisia can do it, why can't we?" you hear in hushed conversations at street corners, marketplaces and cafes across the capital. "If officials do not give permission for this demonstration, it will be a clear sign that they fear the people's true beliefs”
End Quote Ardeshir Arjomand Adviser to Mir Hossein Mousavi Even Iranian internet sites have been buzzing with reports of the 14 February "Iranian day of rage", which takes its name and inspiration from the Egyptian uprisings which toppled President Hosni Mubarak after almost 30 years in power. A Facebook page set up by young Iranian activists called 25Bahman - a month in the Iranian calendar - has invited all "freedom-loving" people to join in the peaceful rally on Monday. The page has gathered more than 55,000 supporters. Meanwhile, security has been stepped up in the capital: anti-riot police have once again appeared on the streets of Tehran and police are blocking all roads leading to Azadi (Freedom) Square. There have also been widespread problems connecting to the internet in recent days, and reports of much slower internet speeds. Officials have denied that any such problems exist, and dismissed claims of an internet clampdown. A dilemma The possibility of homegrown protests pose a clear dilemma for the Iranian authorities, who have publicly backed the events in Cairo as an "Islamic awakening" similar to Iran's 1979 revolution. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - who has led Iran as either president or supreme leader for as long as Hosni Mubarak has been the man in charge in Cairo - has personally hailed the "Islamic" uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.  Dozens were killed during protests after President Ahmadinejad's 2009 re-election Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, the country's main Islamic opposition group, has dismissed the characterisation, and the White House has instead likened Egypt's uprising to Iran's 2009 rebellion against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election. The dilemma is summed up by a Mousavi supporter on the protest's Facebook page. "If [the authorities] let the opposition rally in favour of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, they cannot guarantee that people will go home again. And if they don't give permission, they will prove that they are supporters of Mubarak and [deposed Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine] Ben Ali." Ardeshir Arjomand, an adviser to Mr Mousavi, says the "day of rage" is a test for the leaders of the Islamic Republic. "If officials do not give permission for this demonstration, it will be a clear sign that they fear the people's true beliefs," he said. Many observers in Iran say the Arab uprisings have breathed new life into the Iranian opposition. The once-powerful movement that drew millions onto the streets after President Ahmadinejad's 2009 re-election, which they say was rigged, has all but disappeared. Dozens of protesters were killed, and thousands arrested in the immediate aftermath of the street protests. Others were put on trial and sentenced to long jail terms. But it is unclear whether the Iranian people are ready to put aside their fear of the regime and take to the streets once more. "[Opposition leaders] Mousavi and Karroubi are asking authorities to let Iranians show their support for the fight against tyranny. This is exactly what Ayatollah Khamenei praised a couple of days ago," says Ali, a young English teacher. He says he would like to go, then reconsiders. "If I can be sure I won't be killed afterwards."
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11 February 2011 Last updated at 20:34 GMT By Roger Hardy Middle East analyst, Woodrow Wilson Center  Egyptian protesters celebrated the news of President Mubarak's resignation with fireworks, dancing, drumming and text messaging How wrong we were. When the unrest began in Tunisia, most experts (myself included) said the country's long-time strongman, President Ben Ali, would crush it and survive. When he abruptly fled the country and unrest spread to Egypt, most experts (myself included) said Egypt was not Tunisia and that the country's long-time strongman, Hosni Mubarak, would crush it and survive. The last few weeks have turned every expectation on its head and led even the most seasoned observers to wonder where the region is heading. So here are some thoughts, from a chastened observer, about the likely fall-out. First, President Mubarak's resignation and his departure from Cairo do not mean that the Egyptian crisis is moving towards an early resolution. On the contrary, Mr Mubarak has simply dumped his dilemmas into the lap of the military top brass. Whether they can do a better job of dealing with them than he did - and whether the military can even retain its own cohesion - are far from certain.  The success of 'people power' in Egypt has significance for the wider region Second, the success of 'people power' in Egypt is far more significant for Arabs everywhere than its success in Tunisia. Egypt is the biggest and most powerful Arab state. Mr Mubarak had ruled it for three decades. The Egyptian example has already electrified public opinion throughout a region where a similar set of ills - autocracy, corruption, unemployment, the dignity deficit - prevail. Autocrats whose security services are smaller and weaker than Egypt's are more vulnerable to the chill wind of popular anger. Those with the money to buy off dissent are already trying to do so. Poorer states, such as Jordan and Yemen, will have to borrow in order to do so. Third, the impact of the crisis on regional economies - in such obvious areas as oil prices, tourism, the ability to attract foreign investment - has already been severe. Fourth, the fall of Mubarak will affect a host of regional issues - the Arab-Israeli peace process, the growing influence of Iran, the battle against Muslim extremism - in ways that are hard, if not impossible, to predict. Fears of Islamic revolutions everywhere are misplaced. Most of the current dissent seems driven by nationalist rather than religious sentiment. In Egypt and elsewhere, the Islamists are jumping on a bandwagon others have set in motion.  There has been criticism of the US response to Egypt's crisis At the same time, fears that the crisis tilts the regional balance of power in favour of Iran are, for similar reasons, premature. Iran is watching these tumultuous events, not driving them. Lessons for the West Finally, Western governments are left with policy dilemmas for which there are, in the short run, no solutions. The Obama administration's handling of the Egypt crisis has been inept. The European Union has scarcely fared much better. But even if their response had been sure-footed, the underlying conundrum would have been the same. The West has, for decades, made stability a higher priority than democracy and human rights. Some urgent re-thinking is now under way, as policymakers scramble to learn the right lessons. The other painful lesson for Western powers is how little influence they have, even in countries to which they give generous aid. Money does not buy you love. Nor, when the chips are down, does it enable you to save a close ally from the wrath of the people. Roger Hardy is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington DC.
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资料图片：2月5日晚，在埃及首都开罗市中心的解放广场，民众庆祝执政党民族民主党执行委员会集体辞职。埃及执政党民族民主党执行委员会当天集体辞职，其成员包括总书记谢里夫和穆巴拉克之子贾迈勒。 新华社记者 尹栋逊 摄 (此照片2/11前從未刊發) 新华网北京２月１１日电 埃及副总统苏莱曼１１日通过国家电视台宣布，穆巴拉克已经辞去总统职务，并将权力移交给军方。 苏莱曼说：“在国家目前正在经历的困难时期，穆巴拉克总统决定辞去总统职务。”他说，穆巴拉克已经授权埃及武装部队最高委员会掌管国家事务。 据总部设在阿联酋迪拜的阿拉伯电视台１１日报道，埃及总统穆巴拉克及其家人当天早些时候已离开首都开罗，抵达位于埃及西奈半岛的红海海滨旅游城市沙姆沙伊赫。据目击者说，至少有两架直升机当天从总统府起飞。 埃及武装部队最高委员会１１日发表声明说，支持穆巴拉克关于政权和平过渡的计划，并保证穆巴拉克在电视讲话中提到的各项承诺得到执行。声明说，保证在局势平稳后结束紧急状态法，执行司法机构对议会选举结果的裁决，保证宪法改革和举行自由公正的总统选举。 声明还要求抗议者恢复正常生活秩序，返回工作岗位。 这是埃及军方自１０日以来发表的第二份关于埃及局势的声明。１０日，武装部队最高委员会发表公报说，委员会将进入持续开会状态，研究保护埃及安全和民众诉求的措施。 穆巴拉克１０日晚发表电视讲话时宣布，他根据宪法将部分权力移交给副总统苏莱曼，他本人不会辞去总统职务，并表示要求对宪法部分条款进行修改，涉及总统候选人资格、总统任期等。同时，他在讲话中重申自己不会离开埃及，而是将“死在埃及的土地上”。 自１月２５日以来，埃及要求总统穆巴拉克下台的大规模抗议活动已进入第１８天。１１日，开罗市中心解放广场聚集数万人。埃及总统府和国家电视台附近也聚集了大批抗议者，军方在周围部署多辆坦克，并放置铁丝网，防止示威者冲进大楼。 新华网北京２月１０日电（记者刘华 陈恃雷）外交部发言人马朝旭１０日就埃及局势答记者问时表示，中方主张埃及的事情应由埃及自主决定，不应受到外来干涉。 马朝旭在例行记者会上说，中方一直关注埃及局势的发展。埃及是阿拉伯和非洲大国，埃及的稳定关系整个地区的和平与稳定。 他表示，中方理解并支持埃方为维护社会稳定和恢复正常秩序所作努力，主张埃及的事情应由埃及自主决定，不应受到外来干涉。相信埃方有智慧、有能力找到妥善解决问题的办法，渡过当前困难时期。 马朝旭说，中方珍视中埃传统友谊和战略合作关系，相信两国友好关系将继续健康稳定发展。 <<<< 北京是站在各國統治者一方，甚至沒有提及"埃及人民"。人民共和國似乎畏懼"人民"了。
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