19 May 2011 Last updated at 16:55 GMT

Barack Obama: New chapter in American diplomacy

US President Barack Obama says a "new chapter in American diplomacy" has been turned after the Arab Spring uprisings.

In a speech at the State Department, Mr Obama said the future of the US was bound to the Middle East by forces of economics, security, history and fate.

"It will be the policy of the US to promote reform, and to support transitions to democracy," he said.

Analysts say the speech is Mr Obama's first comprehensive response to revolts sweeping the Arab world.

Mr Obama said the top US priority across North Africa and the Middle East was to promote reform, and oppose the use of violence and oppression.

"We face a historic opportunity. We have a chance to show that America values the dignity of a street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of the dictator," he said.

"As Americans have been seared by hostage taking, violent rhetoric, and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of our citizens - a failure to change our approach [in the Middle East] threatens a deepening spiral of division between the United States and Muslim communities," Mr Obama added.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away”

End Quote Barack Obama US President

The US president also defended new sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"President Assad now has a choice - he can lead that transition or get out of the way. The Syrian government must stop shooting demonstrators and allow peaceful protests," Mr Obama said.

He announced aid packages to Egypt and Tunisia - countries that are embracing democratic reforms.

He also touched on the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

"Ultimately, it is up to Israelis and Palestinians to take action. No peace can be imposed upon them, nor can endless delay make the problem go away," Mr Obama said.

"But what America and the international community can do is state frankly what everyone knows: a lasting peace will involve two states for two peoples.

'Carrot and stick'

President Obama delivered the long-awaited speech at the state department in Washington.

The BBC's Kim Ghattas, in Washington, says that following the death of al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden, President Obama wants a new start with the Muslim world, although polls show opinions of the US are low.

Mr Obama said that Bin Laden, who was killed by special forces this month, was a mass murderer, not a martyr, whose ideas were being rejected even before he was killed.

"Bin Laden and his murderous vision won some adherents. But even before his death, al Qaeda was losing its struggle for relevance, as the overwhelming majority of people saw that the slaughter of innocents did not answer their cries for a better life," Mr Obama said.

"By the time we found bin Laden, al Qaeda's agenda had come to be seen by the vast majority of the region as a dead end, and the people of the Middle East and North Africa had taken their future into their own hands."

Unprecedented change

Egypt and Tunisia - where popular revolts overthrew long-standing rulers - also figured largely in the address.

Mr Obama was expected to write off part of Egypt's huge debt to the US to boost job-creation efforts. He was also expected to unveil an economic incentive package aimed at Tunisia.

Mr Obama's address comes during a time when the Middle East is undergoing unprecedented change.

The push for democracy began with the overthrowing of Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in January. Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak was later toppled in Egypt, with demonstrators in Libya currently working to overthrow dictator Moammar Gaddafi.

Similar uprisings are also taking hold in Bahrain, Yemen and Syria.

On Wednesday, the White House imposed sanctions on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

A US state department official said it was time for the Syrian president "to lead a political transition or to leave".

It was the first time Washington had personally penalised the Syrian leader over the actions of his security forces. More than 850 people have died since the uprising began in March.

Mr Obama is set to meet visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday.

Analysts say Mr Obama's speech is an attempt to convince his US audience that the fate of countries in the Middle East and North Africa is worth the money and effort even during difficult economic times at home.

To his wider audience, Mr Obama wants to underline that Washington stands behind those seeking greater human rights.

The BBC's North American editor Mark Mardell says Mr Obama faces the challenge of trying to set out a coherent US strategy for the region.

This is because Washington's reaction has varied wildly from place to place - from military action against Libya to a ticking off for Bahrain.

Al-Qaeda seems not to be playing much of a part in the battle for Libya

In the short term, al-Qaeda has proved slow to respond and is struggling to make any impact, its ideology of violence undermined, experts believe.

But out of the current chaos and instability in the region, they warn, it could still be able to find new opportunities.

"Ayman Al-Zawahiri (al-Qaeda's number two) has been trying to overthrow Egyptian regimes for the last 30 years by violence, and a group of middle-class activists armed with cell phones managed to achieve it in under one month," argues Nigel Inkster, a former deputy head of Britain's intelligence service, now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"This is hardly a resounding endorsement for the jihadist business model."

The rise of popular protest has certainly undermined the notion that jihadist terror is the only alternative to current regimes, and the only way to confront them.

Although Nato's military commander talked of "flickers" of al-Qaeda in Libya, European officials say they see no signs of a significant presence for the organisation.

And while some Islamists, often former members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, are involved, they are seen as focused on confronting Colonel Muammar Gaddafi at home and not being subscribers to al-Qaeda's wider ambitions.

Mr Benotman also says he has seen jihadists whom he knows in Libya change the way they behave and talk in the past two months.

"The way they start to make statements or to understand the conflicts is unbelievable, beyond my imagination. The only explanation I can offer is because they have been affected - whether they like it or not - by the wave of democracy."

Al-Qaeda has struggled to respond to a rapidly changing situation and, like many, has appeared bewildered by the pace of change.

The latest issue of Inspire, its slickly produced magazine, argues that what it calls "the tsunami of change" will provide it with more freedom in which to operate.

And there are concerns that in some places, al-Qaeda will be able to exploit the chaos.

"Yemen in particular has the potential to evolve into a state with greater ungoverned space than already exists and that will have quite significant adverse security implications," argues Mr Inkster.

In the last year and a half, Yemen has risen to the top of the worry list for Western counter-terrorist officials.

The al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) franchise would be primarily only a regional threat to Yemen itself and Saudi Arabia were it not for the presence of a small, tight-knit group of individuals, including Anwar Al-Awlaki. This group is able to reach young, Western audiences using new media, as well as a number of expert bomb-makers who were able to manufacture the devices used on a plane to Detroit and in printer cartridges on cargo flights (which were of a level of sophistication not seen before).

While the US has worked closely with the government of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, he was not always the most effective partner in confronting AQAP, not least because he had to deal with all the other internal challenges the regime faced.

The key national security and counter-terrorist units that were being trained by the Americans were run by relatives of the president and have now been pivoted to help try and preserve his rule - a development which leaves the struggle against AQAP almost entirely sidelined for the moment and which also risks increasing anti-US sentiment.

The US now appears to have backed away from President Saleh, but it also knows that the chances of any future government being more willing and more able to assist in counter-terrorism than his administration are low.

Western intelligence officials are studying closely how durable the infrastructure they have built up will be, given a change of ruling elite (where some of those manoeuvring for power have a history of being closer to jihadists).

Authoritarian regimes in Egypt, Yemen, and to a much lesser extent Libya, had been partners with Western intelligence in the fight against al-Qaeda.

While some analysts hope that the transfer of power to new elites will allow old relationships to be replicated, Mr Benotman believes that the departure of these governments should open the way for a more sustainable relationship to be built on countering not just terrorism but extremism based on democratic values.

His worry for the longer term is that the failure for real, democratic change to come about, and instead for one set of elites simply to be replaced by others, will open a new avenue for al-Qaeda to exploit.

"This will be a huge opportunity for al-Qaeda to say: 'This is what we've been trying to let you know. It is useless. You've achieved nothing - just changed faces,'" he argues.

"If this is going to be the scenario, then the youth - which is the vast majority and the driving force behind the uprisings - will be more vulnerable to the al-Qaeda message."

In other words, even if al-Qaeda currently appears on the backfoot it may still be able to find new ideological and physical spaces in which to renew itself and continue its struggle.

文甚長，請各位長官自行參閱

陳向陽:總體評估還有一個，我覺得這仍然是階段性的一個變化，它還是一個階段，仍然還是在我們的“機遇期”面。我們講還是20年機遇期，今年進入機遇期“後半程”，前一半已經過了，接下來的一半已經開始，當然我們還要延長這個機遇期，2010年周邊安全是我們整個機遇期的一個階段性的變化。它的深層次的背景是我們的周邊格局在重組，我們自己的力量，鄰國的力量，還有美國的力量，總體上，這三方的力量都在快速地調整。在這麼一個背景下發生的中國與鄰國之間力量對比的變化，主要鄰國像日本跟中國、印度跟中國、東南亞國家跟中國，還有美國跟中國的力量對比發生了新變化，可以說是“彼消我長”，就是在這一過程中，才發生了2010年中國周邊的一系列的事件。...

第三點，對美國的“重返”及其影響不要過高地估計。美國有重返亞洲的衝動，也可以說欲望，或者說意圖。但這只是主觀層面的，而客觀上，它還仍然有很多的牽制因素，伊拉克戰爭並沒有了結，還很不乾淨，伊拉克政府還很不穩定，還有阿富汗戰爭，雖然它提出了時間表，從2011到2014，但還沒那麼簡單；然後還有反恐的問題，尤其是美國經濟的問題，財政赤字、政府債台高築。這個東西對它來說是比較深層次和長期的制約，使得它難以順利地推進它“重返”的計劃，有很多因素還在制約著它，所以我覺得對美國重返亞洲還是應該理性、冷靜地看待，而不要太高地估計它，認為它是完全沖著我們來是、對我們完全不利等等。

 美國怎樣重返亞洲

　　然後，美國重返亞洲我覺得有一點值得注意，就是它的方式方法值得我們研究，甚至是借鑒或思考的，就是它的“巧實力”。尤其是你看它有幾個特點：一個，利用矛盾，分而治之。這一套是很靈的，因為它首先是利用矛盾，其次還可以製造矛盾，然後插手矛盾，從中漁利，這是它的方式方法之一；方式方法之二，就是它的軍事優勢。美國現在經濟不行了，捉襟見肘，為甚麼軍事還很強，當然這有深層次原因，由於美元霸權，由於中國還在被迫給它“買單”、購買美元資產，或者其他甚麼原因，相關因素很多，但是美國充分利用了它的軍事優勢。另外我們講兩場戰爭也好，伊拉克戰爭阿富汗戰爭，美國的霸權受到很大的削弱，包括金融危機的衝擊，但是削弱主要是在經濟層面的，而不是戰略層面、軍事層面的。你看伊拉克戰爭現在死了四千多人，阿富汗戰爭就更少了，就是美國的有生力量基本上沒有削弱，雖然它現在軍事調遣，雖然是疲於奔命，但它的有生力量沒有受到根本性或致命性的削弱，它完全還有這個能力。所以它現在是充分利用這個軍事優勢，尤其是航母，施行“航母外交”；美國的方式方法之三，就是利用它的海洋優勢重返亞洲，就是“以海制華”。我們講中國崛起，在海洋上還是比較薄弱的，雖然我們也是在加速發展。然而美國只想在第一島鏈、第二島鏈把中國牢牢鎖定住。所以它充分利用這個海洋優勢，大打海洋牌，從黃海、延坪島、天安艦、到東海的釣魚島，到南海的南沙、麻六甲海峽等等，都是利用海洋霸權。這是短時期內難以撼動的，這也是我們長期面臨的一個嚴峻挑戰。

張潔:目前，亞洲正在形成一種以美國為首的“雁型安全模式”。在這種模式中，美國為領頭雁，第二梯隊是美日、美韓同盟。尤其美日同盟被置於首要位置，是美國在亞太地區接觸的“基石”。美韓同盟也明顯強化。借勢朝鮮半島的爭端，美、日、韓又進一步磋商三邊軍事同盟。第三梯隊是美國與澳大利亞、泰國和菲律賓等盟國的關係。第四梯隊是美國與越南、印尼、印度不同程度加強雙邊軍事關係。

國安會前秘書長竟然和中共想到一處了...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2011-03/30/c_121249991_2.htm

新华网北京３月３０日电（记者钱彤）国家主席胡锦涛３０日下午在人民大会堂会见来华出席国际货币体系改革研讨会的法国总统萨科齐。

    胡锦涛说，过去的一年中法关系取得了新进展。两国领导人就构建中法全面战略伙伴关系达成重要共识，推动中法关系进入了新的发展阶段。今年是中法关系发展的重要一年。双方要保持两国高层和各级别交往势头，加强对话沟通，增进战略互信，尊重和照顾彼此重大关切。双方要深化两国经贸、航空、航天等传统领域的合作，大力拓展新能源、新材料、循环经济等新兴产业的合作，尤其是核安全领域的合作，扩大双向投资，提升合作水平。双方要深入推进人文交流，办好中法语言年系列活动和首批百名法国青年访华活动，推动中法全面战略伙伴关系持续深入发展。

    在谈到利比亚局势时，胡锦涛指出，近一时期，利比亚局势引起国际社会高度关注。中方对此也深表关切。我们认为，安理会就利比亚局势通过决议，目的是制止暴力，保护平民。如果军事行动殃及无辜平民，造成更大人道主义危机，则违背了安理会决议的初衷。

    胡锦涛说，我们一贯主张，每个国家的独立、主权、统一和领土完整都应当受到尊重，不赞成在国际事务中使用武力。历史经验一再证明，武力解决不了问题，只能使问题更加复杂化，对话等和平手段才是最终解决问题的出路。

胡锦涛说，我们注意到，最近一些国家和地区组织为解决利比亚危机提出了不乏建设性的主张和建议，我们认为应积极回应这些主张和建议，给和平以机会，这符合各方共同利益。中方支持一切有利于缓解当前利比亚紧张局势的政治努力，呼吁有关各方立即停火，寻求和平解决问题，避免更多平民伤亡，使利比亚局势尽快恢复稳定。

    在谈到二十国集团领导人峰会时，胡锦涛表示，中方支持法国举办二十国集团领导人戛纳峰会，愿同法方及其他成员国加强沟通和协调。

    萨科齐说，法国非常重视发展同中国的友好合作关系，法中两国人民的友谊始终不渝。近年来，中国经济稳定发展，国力不断增强，成为世界上不可或缺的重要力量，法方对此感到高兴。２０１０年，胡锦涛主席对法国进行了成功的国事访问。今年对于法中关系十分重要，双方要继续保持两国关系发展良好势头，加强高层互访及各领域交往与合作。法方愿就国际货币体系改革问题同中方保持沟通，期待着胡锦涛主席出席二十国集团领导人戛纳峰会。萨科齐表示，法方也希望通过政治和外交方式解决利比亚危机。

    国务院副总理王岐山、国务委员戴秉国、外交部部长杨洁篪、财政部部长谢旭人、中国人民银行行长周小川、中国驻法国大使孔泉等参加了会见。

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12884518?print=true

By Jonathan Marcus BBC diplomatic correspondent

Amidst all the dramatic headlines about the rebel advances in Libya, two things are clear.

Firstly, that the rebel forces still have a very limited offensive punch; Libyan government units seem to have dissolved in front of them rather than being defeated in battle.

Secondly, the retreat of the Libyan government troops has been prompted by the damage that they have sustained from the air.

We do not know how extensive the air attacks have been but they clearly have dented the morale of Libyan government forces.

So far, according to coalition commanders, the air attacks have been motivated simply by a desire to protect civilians under threat from Libyan government troops - a robust interpretation of UN Security Council Resolution 1973.

But what happens if Libyan government forces decide to make a stand in a built-up area? What if the rebels begin to approach Tripoli itself?

Aiding the rebels?

Continuing air attacks will reach a point where they are no longer ensuring the protection of civilians but aiding the offensive operations of the rebels. Some might argue that point has already come.

Last week, a reader contacted me in response to a piece that I had written on the air campaign saying that some reports suggested that Libyan tanks had been hit from the air while they were heading west, away from Benghazi.

At the time, with Libyan government forces still very much on the front foot, it seemed clear that the coalition military authorities regarded the immediate goal as degrading Col Gaddafi's offensive capabilities across the board.

The logic was simple - what was pulled back from one city could be used to attack another town elsewhere.

But, with the rebels advancing, the picture changes significantly.

Some capitals may want to prosecute the air campaign for as long as possible; hoping that the Col Gaddafi regime will simply collapse from within. Others may believe that enough is enough.

Nato strains

Inevitably, this will cause strains within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato).

The Atlantic alliance is in the process of assuming command of all three missions demanded by the Security Council resolution: the maritime embargo, enforcement of the no-fly zone and the air strikes to protect civilians on the ground.

But in some capitals - Berlin and Ankara for example - there has been an uneasiness from the outset. No wonder then that diplomatic efforts are beginning to focus on how this crisis might end.

A major conference involving the coalition countries and the Arab League is to be held in London on Tuesday. The Italians are already talking about a potential exit route for Col Gaddafi himself.

Will the decision to refer the matter to the International Criminal Court so early in the crisis come back to haunt the coalition, effectively barring the door to Col Gaddafi's escape?

Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is casting himself in the role of mediator to attempt to bring about a ceasefire.

Turkey may have been on the sidelines up to now, but it could be the country to watch as the diplomatic moves unfold.

Turkey is a member of Nato. Ankara is unhappy with the air strikes, believing that a no-fly zone is one thing, striking ground targets in a Muslim country quite another. It is also angered by the leading role France has played since the outset, having been excluded from the Paris summit a little over a week ago.

There is also simmering resentment in Ankara at the long-standing opposition of the Paris government to Turkey's EU ambitions.

Most of all, Turkey is fast becoming the key regional player. France may have had a key part in the opening moves of the Libyan crisis. But the Turkish government is positioning itself to play a leading role in the endgame.

Tripoli witness: Fear and uncertainty

Long queues have built up at petrol stations

The uncertainties and fear over what is to come and what is happening at present remain rife in Libya, as the coalition air strikes on military targets continue. One Tripoli resident - who did not want to be identified for security reasons - describes the mood in the capital.

Who ever thought that an oil-rich country like Libya could face fuel shortages?

That is exactly what is happening as I write these words. People - including myself - have been scrambling to fill up the tanks of their cars in anticipation of what appears to be a looming threat of fuel shortage - or even worse - no fuel at all.

It is one of the few reports on state television you can take at face value. It is also physically visible in the long queues at petrol stations across the capital.

My relative and I spent two hours waiting our turn on Thursday, and in the end we succeeded only because the manager is a friend of a friend of a neighbour. As instructed, we reversed into the petrol station from the exit end and shamelessly re-fuelled as others stared us down with visible disdain.

I never thought I would live to see the day where you needed "connections" to get petrol here. My friends in other parts of the city tell me many stations are closed for business, which fuelled even further panic.

A new public talent is on display these days.

Every night in Tripoli, since the coalition air strikes began, people race to the rooftops of their buildings or houses at the first audible sound of anti-aircraft artillery shots or the rumble of an explosion.

A few minutes in, you will start hearing the men whistling, some are close, others from a distance, and - in the otherwise still and silent dead of night - the chorus of whistling echoes across the neighbourhoods and rises up.

No-one really knows what the whistling means - we're left privately assuming that there is an underlying tone of excitement in the choir and not of the type that would impress the regime.

Another new talent being enforced is stone-throwing. I have yet to see it for myself, but my friends excitedly tell me of the scenes they witnessed.

"Some people in Ben Ashour area and in Souk el-Jumaa district have been stoning the pro-Gaddafi, green flag-bearing cars that drivedown their streets; they throw the stones and sprint," they say.

However, it is not just opponents of the regime displaying new talents.

Some would argue that the country's state-owned television channels have recently lifted the "iron curtain" on directors and actors who have long been absent from the scene.

Col Gaddafi has vociferous supporters

They marvel at the footage being displayed claiming there have been civilian casualties in coalition air strikes in Tripoli.

There was one scenario on Wednesday night that seemed particularly suspicious. It showed one woman - with only her back in view shouting and screaming over the debris.

This was accompanied by other short scenes of security officials closing the doors of an ambulance and telling the driver to go. Look closer and you will notice the faintest of smirks edging across the face of one of the emergency personnel.

The scenes on television of the funerals have also come under scrutiny. What stands out the most perhaps is the absence of emotion - usually a key element of any funeral here.

"They are making a mockery out of death... this is like an inferior version of Hollywood. It's Lollywood!" one friend says in disbelief and anger as he watches the screen.

There is still no clear picture on whether there have been any civilian casualties as a result of the coalition strikes; but there certainly hasn't been any talk of any on the streets of Tripoli amongst the people.

Death is very public knowledge here: under normal circumstances, residents are not only told of people who have died in Tripoli - whom they have often never heard of - but even in cities farther afield.

The dozens of civilian casualties being claimed by the government would hardly go unnoticed.

A friend of mine recently released from detention - where he was severely beaten - described the conditions in one prison facility, where he says hundreds of Libyans from Tripoli, Misrata, Zawiya and Zuwara were held.

"They have a tape that replays 24 hours a day in the cells on loud speakers - the audio of Col Gaddafi's first televised speech after the start of the uprising where he says he will 'sterilise' Libya house-by-house, street-by-street," he says.

He goes on to recount how security officers used what he believes were stun guns in one room where they carried out "group torture".

"We were all lined up against the wall and one security officer came in and shocked the detainees as he walked along - it was random, he somehow missed giving me a hit. I was still blindfolded and all I could hear was the sound of an electric shock and the men making a restrained painful sound through clenched teeth and falling to the floor.

"I kept praying in hushed tones. In the cell where I spent the night, there were countless men who told me they had been there for days or weeks, most were wearing pyjamas - which suggested they were dragged from their homes late at night - and many had urinated in their pants."

He saw families: one elderly man and his three grown sons for example, who were brought in because the fourth son had been grabbed during a protest in Tripoli on 22 February. They have not seen him ever since.