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A US soldier from the 1st Battalion, 116th Infantry Regiment, carries his bag as he prepares to pull out from Iraq to Kuwait, at Tallil Air Base near Nassiriya, on 15 August 2010. All US troops must be out of Iraq by the end of next year

The US formally ends its combat operations in Iraq at the end of August, marking a new phase in the seven-year conflict which has cost billions of dollars and many thousands of lives.

The onus of ensuring Iraq's security and rebuilding the devastated country now rests with Iraqi leaders, even though they have yet to form a new government almost six months after an election.

Almost every figure related to the war is disputed, with none more keenly debated than the total number of Iraqi deaths. This is a summary of some of the key numbers and the arguments surrounding them.

CASUALTIES

Over 4,000 US service personnel have been killed in Operation Iraqi Freedom since the invasion started on 19 March 2003.

US military deaths in the operation in Iraq, Centcom

At 26 August 2010 the latest figure from the US Department of Defense stood at 4,421 of which 3,492 were killed in action. Almost 32,000 have been wounded in action.

The UK has lost 179 servicemen and women, of which 136 were killed in action.

Other coalition countries account for 139 deaths according to the icasualties website.

While coalition troop fatalities are reasonably well documented, deaths of Iraqi civilians and combatants are more difficult to track because of a lack of reliable official figures. All counts and estimates of Iraqi deaths are highly disputed.

The organisation Iraq Body Count has been collating civilian deaths using cross-checked media reports and other figures such as morgue records.

Iraqi civilian deaths, by month, according to IBC

According to IBC there have been between 97,461 and 106,348 civilian deaths up to July 2010.

The most bloody period for civilian deaths was the month of invasion, March 2003, in which IBC says 3,977 ordinary Iraqis lost their lives. A further 3,437 were killed in April of that year.

The group says the difference between its higher and lower total figures is caused by discrepancies in reports about how many deaths resulted from an incident and whether they were civilians or combatants.

Other reports and surveys have resulted in a wide range of estimates of Iraqi deaths. The UN-backed Iraqi Family Health Survey estimated 151,000 violent deaths in the period March 2003 - June 2006.

Meanwhile, The Lancet journal in 2006 published an estimate of 654,965 excess Iraqi deaths related to the war of which 601,027 were caused by violence.

Both this and the Family Health Survey include deaths of Iraqi combatants as well as civilians.

An unknown number of civilian contractors have also been killed in Iraq. Icasualties publishes what it describes as a partial list with the figure of 467.

COST

The financial scale of the war is another area in which figures vary widely.

The respected and non-partisan Congressional Research Service estimates that the US will have spent almost $802bn on funding the war by the end of fiscal year 2011, with $747.6bn already appropriated.

US funding of its operation in Iraq 2003 to 2011

However, Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard's Linda Bilmes put the true cost at $3 trillion once additional impacts on the US budget and economy are taken into account.

The UK has funded its part in the conflict from the Treasury Reserve Fund which is extra money on top of the normal Ministry of Defence budget.

Whitehall figures released in June 2010 put the cost of British funding of the Iraq conflict at £9.24bn ($14.32bn), the vast majority of which was for the military but which also included £557m in aid.

A summary of how the war was funded was also presented to the UK's Iraq Inquiry in January 2010.

TROOP LEVELS

troops graphic

US troops led the invasion of Iraq in March 2003, in coalition with the UK and other nations.

The numbers of US "boots on the ground" have mostly fluctuated between 100-150,000 apart from during the period of the "surge" in 2007.

This was President George W Bush's drive to improve security in the country, especially in the capital Baghdad, by sending in 30,000 extra troops.

UK troop levels in Iraq

  • End of May 2003: 18,000
  • End of May 2004: 8,600
  • End of May 2005: 8,500
  • End of May 2006: 7,200
  • End of May 2007: 5,500
  • End of May 2008: 4,100 (in southern Iraq)
  • End of May 2009: 4,100 (in southern Iraq)
  • End of Jan 2010: 150

Source: MoD

Barack Obama made withdrawal from Iraq a key pledge in his presidential election campaign of 2008 and troop numbers have steadily fallen since he took office in January 2009.

On 19 August 2010 the last US combat brigade left the country, leaving behind 50,000 military personnel involved in the transition process, who are due to withdraw by the end of 2011.

British forces peaked at 46,000 during the invasion phase and then fell away year on year to 4,100 in May 2009 when the UK formally withdrew from Iraq.

There are now around 150 British military personnel serving in the country with a further 1,500 assigned to the operation but not in Iraq itself (such as Royal Navy staff in the Gulf).

DISPLACED PEOPLE

Sectarian violence in the conflict began to grow from early 2005. But the destruction of an important Shia shrine in February 2006 saw attacks between Sunni and Shia militias increase dramatically. This caused many Iraqi families to abandon their homes and move to other areas within the country or to flee abroad.

The International Organization for Migration, IOM, which monitors numbers of displaced families, estimates that in the four years 2006-2010, as many as 1.6 million Iraqis [pdf] were internally displaced, representing 5.5% of the population.

Of that total, nearly 400,000 people had returned by mid 2010, primarily to Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa, and Anbar provinces, according to the IOM.

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美聯參主席座機在喀布爾遭塔里班火箭襲擊
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新華網北京8月26日電(記者 李學梅)本周發生的兩件事讓駐阿富汗美軍再次陷入尷尬。

 

第一件是美軍參謀長聯席會議主席馬丁·登蒲賽的座機在阿富汗“挨炸”。

駐阿外國軍隊近來頻遭阿富汗安全部隊人員襲擊。今年初以來,這種“綠襲藍”事件已經發生32起,造成40名外國軍人死亡,其中包括22名美軍士兵。一面要與塔利班殊死搏鬥,一面還要提防親手培訓的阿富汗軍警“反戈”相擊,美國大兵處境之難可想而知——而這也是登蒲賽此訪要同阿方交涉的主要議題。

 

孰料登蒲賽20日剛剛抵達,21日淩晨,停放在駐阿美軍巴格拉姆基地的登蒲賽座機便遭火箭彈襲擊。塔利班隨後宣佈對此事負責。雖然登蒲賽本人及其隨行人員因在住處休息而避過此劫,但這無疑讓駐阿美軍顏面大失。

 

另一件尷尬事來自美國盟友新西蘭。

 

新西蘭總理約翰·基20日表示,新西蘭“非常可能”于明年4月提前撤回駐在阿富汗巴米揚省的100多名士兵。雖然新西蘭政府在撤軍理由上含糊其辭,但是其作出撤軍表態的時機很難不讓人產生聯想——就在本月19日,3名新西蘭軍人在巴米揚省執行任務時遇襲身亡,其中還包括一名女性。

 

新西蘭並不是第一個打算提前撤軍的國家。今年5月,法國總統奧朗德就明確表示,法國部隊將在今年年底前撤離阿富汗。而根據計畫,北約大部分作戰部隊應該在2014年年底前撤離阿富汗。當時就有分析人士指出,一些北約國家原本在從阿富汗撤軍的時間安排上就各懷心事,作為第五大出兵國的法國宣佈提前撤軍很可能產生示範效應。如今看來,果然被不幸言中。

 

美國“腹背受敵”並不令人感到意外。

 

前美國陸軍教官馬特·澤勒曾這樣描述自己在阿富汗的經歷:“兩個老年男子在阿富汗12月寒冷的夜裡瑟瑟發抖,他們被銬著的雙手顫抖不已……在我擔任駐加茲尼省美國陸軍隨軍作戰顧問期間,此類事件頻繁發生。這兩人的命運掌握在我手上。他們到底是大字不識的老農還是塔利班士兵?或者兩者都是?”

澤勒的經歷在駐阿美軍中極具代表性。阿富汗戰爭11年來,無處不在的死亡威脅讓許多美軍士兵精神壓抑,心靈扭曲。從虐囚到虐屍,從焚燒《古蘭經》到屠殺平民,無不是這種變態心理的體現。

 

醜聞的發生又會加劇當地人對美國的痛恨,從此陷入無休無止的惡性循環。面對不斷攀升的死亡人數和各自國內的反戰呼聲,美國的眾多盟友也難免對阿富汗駐軍計畫心生疑慮,希望提早抽身。

 

作為戰爭的始作俑者,美國總要吞咽這顆苦果,只是眾多阿富汗平民何辜,要為這場戰爭付出生命的代價。而活著的人也好不到哪裡去,即使駐阿美軍能在2014年年底如期撤出,留給他們的也只是一個支離破碎的國家,以及揮之不去的塔利班陰影。



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Assessing America's 'imperial adventure' in Iraq
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US soldiers pack equipment into an aircraft as they prepare to leave Iraq, 27 August 2010 US troops have been packing up as their combat operation in Iraq officially ends

"This," a leading American supporter of President George W Bush wrote in a British newspaper back in February 2003, just before the invasion of Iraq, "is our imperial moment".

He went on to argue that the British had no right to criticise America for doing what they themselves had done so enthusiastically a century before.

But America's imperial moment did not last long. And now, seven years later, the US is criticised for just about everything that happens here.

Opinion is evenly divided between those who are glad to see the Americans go, and those who criticise them for leaving too soon and potentially laying Iraq open to fresh sectarian violence.

It is a pattern that every occupying power becomes used to. America, it seems, cannot do anything right - not even getting out.

Most of the arguments in favour of invading back in 2003 have come to nothing.

Many Iraqis welcomed the overthrow of Saddam Hussein - 50% regarded the invasion as a liberation, according to a BBC poll taken in 2004, while 50% regarded it as an occupation - but nowadays it is hard to find anyone who sees America as Iraq's friend and mentor.

Nor has the overthrow of Saddam Hussein led to a general domino effect towards democracy throughout the Middle East.

On the contrary, America's position in the Middle East has been visibly eroded.

Some of the things done by the American authorities in Iraq, based in the Green Zone in Baghdad, were sober, positive and practical.

Some have become a burden, for instance the constitution the Americans wished on Iraq, which makes it fiendishly hard to create a decent effective government.

Grotesque mismanagement

And because the Green Zone administration was thrown together in a huge hurry back in 2002-03, overseen by former Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - a man with no interest in nation-building - some of what was done involved grotesque levels of corruption and mismanagement.

A boy cheers in front of a statue of Saddam Hussein that was set on fire on 12 April 2010 The toppling of Saddam Hussein failed to trigger any domino effect in the Middle East

Mr Rumsfeld was sent a careful, conscientious 900-page report by the state department containing detailed plans for the post-invasion period. He reportedly dumped it, unopened, straight into his waste-paper basket.

Iraqis, and some Americans, pile a good deal of the blame for what happened during this period on to Mr Rumsfeld's ally Paul Bremer, the temperamental pro-consul who often seemed unaware of what was going on right under his nose.

Former Vice-President Dick Cheney, when asked by the Saudi foreign minister why the US insisted on going ahead with the invasion, answered: "Because it's do-able."

But the problem began even higher up.

A respected Iraqi dissident, who later became vice-president, has described how shocked he was to find, a few weeks before the invasion, that President Bush seemed wholly unaware that Muslims in Iraq were divided between Shia and Sunni Islam.

American generals seemed to despair of finding a solution to the growing insurgency.

Petraeus's luck

The US forces, contrary to all the basic rules of counter-insurgency, allowed the enemy to attack "Route Irish", the main road between Baghdad airport and the Green Zone, as and when it chose.

British soldiers, used to Northern Ireland, pointed out again and again that occasional nervous sorties in armoured vehicles were not the same as taking control of it.

Their American counterparts took no notice, and the situation grew worse.

It took an expert in counter-terrorism, Gen David Petraeus, to turn the situation around. Like most successful generals, he had luck on his side.

Gen Petraeus understood that insurgencies have a specific life-span, and he was fortunate enough to arrive in Baghdad at the time when the Iraqi insurgency was starting to wind down.

Sunni Muslims were increasingly sick of the violence that Sunni extremists were causing, and he encouraged the growth of Awakening Councils which enabled moderate Sunnis to rise up and deal with both Baathists and supporters of al-Qaeda.

The supply of people willing to become suicide bombers began to dwindle.

Gen Petraeus's tactics turned the tide. At the height of the violence something like 100 people were dying each day across the country from bombings and shootings.

Now the number killed in political violence has dropped to about 10 a day - unacceptable in a more peaceable society, but a great relief here.

Uncertain future

Yet many Iraqis fear that with the Americans no longer here in force, and the Iraqi army and police still lacking sufficient training, the violent extremists on both the Sunni and the Shia sides could start fighting again.

Great military powers run big risks by putting their strength to the test against weak-seeming opponents”

Whatever happens here for the next decade, the Americans will get the blame - unless of course Iraq becomes peaceful and prosperous, in which case no-one will thank them.

That is the usual fate of an occupying force.

Vast numbers of people have died, the overwhelming majority of them Iraqi.

Unthinkably large amounts of money have been spent here, and yet Iraq has slipped far down the world's rich list.

Has the United States benefited? It is hard to see how.

As the British learned in the Boer War, and Russia learned by invading Afghanistan, great military powers run big risks by putting their strength to the test against weak-seeming opponents.

America seems to have shrunk as a direct result of its imperial adventure in Iraq.

It will have to work very hard to persuade the rest of the world that it is strong again.

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