http://opinion.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-05/812293.html

環球網轉光明網評論

靜靜的他來了，悄悄的他又走了，帶來了一部指導創作的歌劇《紅樓夢》，帶走了多少東西還不知道？但一定不會空手的。

　　他是金正日，金日成之子，金正銀之父，朝鮮最高領袖。

　　古風之國

　　領袖是現實的。金正日在與中國領導人會談中有一句至關重要的表述--"不會因時間推移和世代交替而發生變化。"可見，托孤大概是他此行的首要目的。

　　朝鮮前財長朴南基就沒那麼幸運了，今年貨幣改革失敗。這位"大地主的兒子"以"潛入革命隊伍，蓄意置國家經濟於死地"的罪名被槍決。這是一幕活脫脫的曹操"借糧官之頭以安軍心"的現代翻版。

　　古書新翻，確有意蘊：染重疾的人主，流放中的長子，剛正位的太子，神秘的影武者，護國的大將軍，名聲很不好的廠衛，終年辛勞只求一飽的百姓……這些場景一一浮現，讓人有"不知今夕是何年"的感慨。

　　經濟、政治、外交、軍事是國際政治中的四大支柱是。長期被封閉和自我封閉的朝鮮，被隔離在全球化繁榮之外，一直是在苦尋找解題之道。朝鮮的特殊之處在於是軍事上較強，"先軍政治"一切以軍隊為先。外交上處於隔離狀態。政治上是經常出人意料。經濟上已基本可忽略。

　　十年"撫"局

　　長久以來，韓國對朝的政策一直是在"撫""剿"兩字間搖擺。軍政府時期主要是"剿"，從金大中執政時期開始的"陽光政策"是"撫"。金大中本人也因2000年訪問平壤，得到了當年諾貝爾和平獎。但從2008年開始，李明博上任伊始，就放出口風要裁撤"統一部"，開始對朝冷處理。

　　有意思的是，金正日與金大中（2000年6月）和金正日與盧武鉉（2007年10月）的兩次首腦峰會都是在平壤舉行的。韓方曾一再邀請金正日回訪，但朝方不置可否，一直沒有回應。李明博上臺後也曾表示願和金正日會晤，但要求根據禮節，這次應該是金正日回訪首爾。

　　與此同時，韓國也對"陽光政策"進行反思。經過統計，在金大中和盧武鉉兩任總統期間，韓國共為朝鮮提供了5600億日元的援助。十年光陰，彈指一揮間，金家已是有核初長成。2006年朝鮮進行首次核爆，導彈問題成了核子危機，"撫"局失敗。

　　對朝"冷處理"並不是韓國單方策略，在東北亞詭譎的六國棋局中，美韓日這方中，美國才是定調的老大。和富裕的美國建立直接聯繫，獲得認同與援助是朝鮮一直以來隱晦的夢想。

　　朝鮮也曾離這個夢想很近，2000年10月奧爾布賴特訪問了朝鮮，在平壤，她受到了隆重款待，金正日在陪同她觀看大型團體操時表示，朝鮮1998年進行了"第一次衛星發射，它也將是最後一次發射"。當時，奧爾布賴特說她發現金正日是"一個善於聽取意見的人，一個很好的對話者，一個果斷和務實的人。"對於美朝，那都是一個令人回味的蜜月。

　　2001年，共和黨人小布希入主白宮，重新審視朝鮮。2006年他在"國情咨文"中把朝鮮稱為"邪惡軸心"，敵我身份已分。接著美朝就吵吵和和，談談斷斷。2008年6月，朝鮮用炸毀甯邊核反應爐的冷卻塔來把昭示天下自己的去核決心，美國為此次爆破支付了250萬美元，多國進行了直播。

　　在被朝鮮牽著走了八年後，2009年1月，非洲裔的奧巴馬就任總統。已有些不耐煩的朝鮮開始軍事冒險，在戰爭邊緣滋長。2009年5月，進行了二次核爆，給奧巴馬下馬威，逼其表態。2009年4月朝鮮又發射了飛越日本的"光明星2號"，裹挾日本進彀。接著，今年3月，又發生了大家都知道是怎麼回事但又都不好說的"天安艦事件"，造成韓方沉艦一艘，亡46人。

　　已很明顯，在金融危機和兩場戰爭重壓之下的美利堅是無意再陪朝鮮玩了，奧巴馬政府一直都是在敷衍著"冷處理"，讓千斤之力踢在棉花之上，但又沒有糖。另在口頭上，把維持東北亞安全的議題，更多的託付給了中國。

　　三點看法

　　梳理種種，朝鮮問題的核心大體可見三點：一是朝鮮核武只是工具。選擇這個是因為這個最嚇人，容易吸引注意力。今年4月希拉蕊稱朝鮮擁有1至6枚核武器。朝鮮2009年的"光明星2號"未能進入軌道。也就是說，有彈射不了（遠），或就是朝鮮目前核武現狀。

摘自朝鮮中央社: http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

Speech of Chinese President at Banquet

Pyongyang, May 8 (KCNA) -- Hu Jintao, general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and president of the People's Republic of China, made the following speech at a banquet: You, Comrade Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and chairman of the National Defence Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, have visited China with the friendly feelings of the Korean party, government and people toward their Chinese counterparts in this beautiful spring season. I, on behalf of the party, government and all the people of China, warmly welcome your visit to China. It is my belief that your current visit to China would be recorded in the history of the development of the bilateral relations as an important occasion in boosting the traditional friendship. Last year our two countries grandly celebrated the 60th anniversary of the establishment of China-DPRK diplomatic relations and held successful events to mark the "year of China-DPRK friendship," the first of its kind in history, demonstrating the vibrant bilateral ties. The six-decade-long history has proved that the bilateral relations can certainly make steady progress, weathering difficulties caused by the complicated international situation, if the two countries adhere to the correct orientation of the development of the bilateral relations in the spirit of "inheriting tradition, facing up to the future, building good neighborly friendship and strengthening cooperation", help and cooperate with each other for mutual benefits and common prosperity from a broad perspective and in a far-sighted way, jointly push forward the socialist cause through an active exchange of views and close collaboration and pool efforts to defend interests common to the two countries and the two peoples. The traditional China-DPRK friendship is a valuable asset of the two parties, the two countries and the two peoples and it is, therefore, our historic responsibility to advance the friendship with the passage of time and convey it down through generations. The Chinese party and government have consistently defended and developed the relations of friendship and cooperation between the two countries on a strategic level, attaching utmost importance to them. It is an unshakable policy of the party and government of China to steadily boost the bilateral friendship and cooperation. They will exert joint efforts with their Korean counterparts to make a greater contribution to putting the relations between the two countries on a new, higher level, bringing bigger happiness to the two peoples and achieving a lasting peace and common prosperity in the region. The diligent and resourceful Korean people are now working hard to greet the 65th anniversary of the WPK with fresh achievements. We, as your friendly neighbor, dear comrade and true friend, sincerely hope that the DPRK would enjoy political stability, make economic growth and bring a happy life to its people. I believe that the Korean people, under the resolute leadership of the WPK headed by you, would explore a road of development suited to the actual conditions of the country and certainly register fresh and greater achievements in their cause of building a great prosperous and powerful nation.