網路城邦
回本城市首頁 中國星火論壇
市長:古士塔夫  副市長: lukacsGuoding
加入本城市推薦本城市加入我的最愛訂閱最新文章
udn城市政治社會公共議題【中國星火論壇】城市/討論區/
討論區外交、軍事 字體:
看回應文章  上一個討論主題 回文章列表 下一個討論主題
美中兩國誰做老大?
 瀏覽14,119|回應66推薦2

Guoding
等級:8
留言加入好友
文章推薦人 (2)

Chocola
lukacs

參考包公所貼高鐵為何讓奧巴馬側目一文

“老二”面臨的嚴峻挑戰

http://www.zaobao.com/yl/tx100204_002.shtml

薛理泰

美國總統奧巴馬發表《國情咨文》時指出:“我不接受美國成為世界第二。”他在講話中兩次提到中國,既沒有貶低中國,也沒有指責中國,是把中國作為正面例子給予引證的。外界解讀時,或謂奧巴馬不能接受退居世界第二的前景,實際上給中國下了競爭的挑戰書。對奧巴馬這番表態還應該想深一層,更貼切的潛台詞或許是“我絕不能讓你當世界老大”。
 就整體經濟量而言,去年中國GDP可能超過日本,已經躍居世界第二。況且,近年中國軍力也呈現突飛猛進的勢頭。這可能是奧巴馬對美國可能退居世界第二的前景引起擔憂心理的緣由,也是中國民眾以至不少官員沾沾自喜的由來。

 姑且不說中國GDP未來能否長期穩居“老二”的地位,也不談以房地產為主要支柱之一的GDP結構是否合理,也不論GDP畸形膨脹能否持久地支撐中國作為一個世界強國的國際地位,對此,簡單地持認同態度似乎不妥。本文著重論述一下即使中國名副其實地成了“老二”,對中國未來的發展前景又意味著什麼。說白了,在上自中央下至民間欠缺危機意識,在大戰略層面又缺乏因時制宜的對策的情況下,以“老二”自居,恐非國家之福。


 成為蘇聯的翻版?


 奧巴馬在《國情咨文》中針對中國的表態,其實集中反映了近年美國高層漸趨一致的對待中國崛起的後果的一種共識。倘若中國果真坐穩了“老二”的席位,美國乃至整個西方世界勢必會得出一個結論,即中國不久將成為蘇聯的翻版,是同美國爭霸的又一個超級大國。這是不以北京領導人信誓旦旦的解釋為轉移的。

 一部世界史或者一部冷戰史,無非揭示一個客觀事實:小則在一個地理區域,大則在全球範圍,舉凡政治、軍事、經濟、文化意識形態層面的鬥爭,主要都是環繞著“老大”、“老二”之間不惜代價地展開,結果很難善了,無非成王敗寇,以一方被徹底擊敗告終。

 遠的暫且不說,僅舉百年以來的歷史為例。一次大戰前,英國穩坐“世界老大”的席位久矣。德國在內部統一以後,在迭次戰爭中,戰敗了歐洲強國奧匈帝國、法國,在世界強國中躍居“老二”。其後,德國整軍經武,國勢浸浸乎直逼英國,英國不甘退居其次,一次大戰終於爆發。二次大戰也是一個翻版。大戰前,希特勒德國猛然崛起,德意志民族的爆發力噴薄欲出,於是對英、法操縱的世界秩序提出挑戰(當時美國實行孤立主義,自外于英、法為主的世界秩序體系),在歐洲列強縱橫捭闔之下,兩大陣營隱然成形,以至大戰爆發。

 環顧當年國際形勢,英、德、法等國社會、經濟制度相仿,又都屬於一個大的民族範疇,“老大”著眼於維持既得利益,“老二”為了打破既定格局,尚且兵刃相見,拼個你死我活。其義無他,勢所然也。史實可考,其理昭然。

 二次大戰結束以後,冷戰時代悄然到來。西方世界開始對蘇聯全力圍堵。其根本原因,就是美國認為蘇聯已經成為“老二”,是同美國爭霸的另一個超級大國,對美國的世界領袖的地位構成了挑戰。以當年美、蘇爭霸之烈,如果不是熱核武器已經問世,雙方不能承受核大戰的慘重後果,恐怕第三次世界大戰早已爆發了。然而,在將近半個世紀中,西方世界在政治、軍事、經濟、文化意識形態等層面,對蘇聯實行“分進合擊”,孜孜矻矻,不稍懈怠。積年累月以後,蘇聯終於一朝崩潰。
 返求諸今日狀況,美國、中國之間狹義的雙邊關係以及中國同西方世界廣義的多邊關係,日後均會經歷劇烈的互動、變動。清夜拊心,視野遠移,發人深省。

擔心中國崛起的後果

 西方政治家評判正在崛起的某個國家是否會構成威脅,是基於該國即將擁有的綜合實力,而不是其在某個時段的主觀意向。實力是客觀存在的,為其在未來可能造成的災難提供了可行的手段,而最終的意向則是捉摸不定的,領導人更迭即可能出現大幅度的變化。

 他們可能認為,中國已經成為“世界工廠”,又是聯合國安理會常任理事國,還是一個在亞太地區極有影響力的核大國。中國在這三個基礎上崛起,不久以後必然成為一個能與美國爭鋒的超級大國。這就是西方國家關於“中國威脅論”的立論依據。簡言之,他們只是擔心中國崛起的後果,而不是崛起的方式。
 西方流行一種說法,即“崛起的大國就意味著崛起的威脅”,正在為“中國威脅論”推波助瀾。中國官員、學者卻總是試圖僅從中國崛起的方式是和平的角度去解釋,顯然是一廂情願。這豈非低估了西方戰略家的智慧?如此說辭及做法,不啻緣木求魚。
 與“老大”對立的力量坐上“老二”的席位,還有不能不予以考慮的一層隱憂。在“老三”、“老四”的位子上,無論“老大”還是“老二”,都不至於視之為非要去之而後快的對象。然而,“老二”卻往往成為眾矢之的,不但“老大”視為眼中釘,在“老大”策動之下,連“老三”、“老四”、“老五”都會群起而攻之。一次大戰、二次大戰之前,位居“老大”的英國面臨“老二”德國的緊逼,不是聯合“老三”、“老四”等同“老二”兵刃相見了嗎?
 假如美國決策已定,絕不能讓中國當世界老大,對策不出兩個範疇:其一是化擔憂為動力,發動一場新的產業革命;其二是橫刀奪愛,拉中國的後腿,挫折中國發展的勢頭。或者雙管齊下,畢其功於一役。如此,中國發展的機遇期就失之交臂了。

            (作者是斯坦福大學國際安全和合作中心研究員)

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘

引用
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=3855482
 回應文章 頁/共7頁 回應文章第一頁 回應文章上一頁 回應文章下一頁 回應文章最後一頁
习近平会见美国国务卿克里和财长雅各布·卢
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

习近平会见美国国务卿克里和财长雅各布·卢

字号:
2014-07-10 19:14:47
关键字 >> 习近平李克强克里雅各布·卢美国国务卿美国财长中美关系

中国国家主席习近平10日在人民大会堂会见来华出席第六轮中美战略与经济对话和第五轮中美人文交流高层磋商的美国国务卿克里、财政部长雅各布·卢等美方代表团主要成员。

习近平表示,第六轮中美战略与经济对话和第五轮中美人文交流高层磋商取得了积极成果,释放了改善和发展中美关系的重要信息。我对双方团队的辛勤努力表示赞赏,希望双方落实好这些成果,让其尽快发挥出积极效应,使两国和两国人民尽早受益。双方要重点做好以下几方面工作。一是加强沟通交流。我欢迎奥巴马总统今年11月来北京出席亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议并访华,也愿意继续通过通信、通话等方式同他保持沟通,就共同关心的重大问题及时交换意见,把握两国关系的发展方向。双方还要加强其他领域对话和交往。二是促进合作。我们要扎扎实实做几件事,加快双边投资协定谈判,加强两军交往,在气候变化、绿色发展等领域力争达成合作共识和协议,在地区热点问题上保持沟通和协调,同其他各方一道,维护朝鲜半岛和平稳定。三是减少麻烦。双方要求同存异、求同化异。凡是有利于为两国关系注入正能量的,都要做“加法”;反之,都要做“减法”。

习近平指出,中美建交35年来,两国关系走过了不平凡的历程,经验教训弥足珍贵、值得记取。中美双方应该坚持构建不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的新型大国关系的大方向,增进互信,扩大利益契合点,管控分歧,推动中美关系沿着正确轨道持续向前发展。

克里和雅各布·卢表示,两天来,我们同中方同事进行了富有成果的对话和磋商。奥巴马总统欢迎并希望看到一个强大、繁荣、稳定的中国,美方绝对无意遏制中国,无意同中国对抗、冲突。美方支持中国全面深化改革,中国经济保持发展对美国有利。美方希望美中关系取得更多成果,愿同中方加强对话,朝着早日达成双边投资协定的目标积极努力,加强两国经济伙伴关系。美中双方还要共同应对气候变化等全球性挑战和一系列地区热点问题,促进两国共同利益和世界的安全、稳定、繁荣。奥巴马总统非常期待再次访问北京并出席亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议。

国务院副总理刘延东、国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪等参加会见。

7月9日,第六轮中美战略与经济对话和第五轮中美人文交流高层磋商联合开幕式在北京举行,中国国家主席习近平出席并发表讲话。中国国务院副总理刘延东、汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪,美国国务卿约翰·克里、财政部长雅克布·卢出席。

7月9日,第六轮中美战略与经济对话和第五轮中美人文交流高层磋商联合开幕式在北京举行,中国国家主席习近平出席并发表讲话。中国国务院副总理刘延东、汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪,美国国务卿约翰·克里、财政部长雅克布·卢出席。

请支持独立网站,转发请注明本文链接:http://www.guancha.cn/politics/2014_07_10_245665.shtml
回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5135610
美国国务卿克里访华参加中美第六轮战略经济对话照片
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

美国国务卿克里访华参加中美第六轮战略经济对话照片

字号:
2014-07-10 17:41:17
关键字 >> 中美战略与经济对话S&ED克里雅各布·卢克里参观克里照片杨洁篪汪洋趣图集锦中美关系

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程。

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

7月8日下午,克里一行抵达北京参加第六轮中美战略与经济对话

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

美国驻华大使鲍卡斯及大批使馆工作人员到机场接机

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

7月8日,克里与雅克布·卢前往北京八达岭长城参观

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

八达岭长城的警戒

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

7月8日下午,美国国务卿克里站在窗前俯瞰故宫景色

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

7月9日,习近平在第六轮美中战略与经济对话开幕式上发表讲话

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

7月9日,杨洁篪和克里在钓鱼台共进圆桌会议早餐,与会的还有中美商业领袖

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

克里在钓鱼台国宾馆散步

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

汪洋、杨洁篪和克里

第六轮中美战略与经济对话9日开始一连两日在北京举行。国务院副总理汪洋、国务委员杨洁篪作为中国国家主席习近平的特别代表,与美国总统奥巴马的特别代表国务卿克里、财长雅各布·卢共同主持对话。国务院副总理刘延东与克里还共同主持人文交流高层磋商。10日下午,汪洋、杨洁篪与克里、雅克布·卢出席了第六轮中美战略与经济对话记者会。汪洋表示,本次对话取得圆满成功,达成了90多项重要成果。双方同意争取在2014年就双边投资协定文本的核心问题和主要条款达成一致,并承诺2015年早期启动负面清单谈判。下面是克里为期两天的访华行程

会议过后中美双方人员拍照合影

 

请支持独立网站,转发请注明本文链接:http://www.guancha.cn/america/2014_07_10_245623.shtml
回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5135609
美专家:中国默许美军主导亚洲 美需顺从中国规则
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

美专家:中国默许美军主导亚洲 美需顺从中国规则

 (2014-06-26 09:38:04)
标签: 

军事

分类: 【军事天地·热点评说】

    从“环太平洋”军演的观察员到参与者,穿越第一岛链、远赴夏威夷的4艘中国舰艇和1100多名官兵,今天正式亮相这个由美国">美国主导的全球最大规模海上军演。有23个国家将参加6月26日到8月1日的2014环太军演,首次参加的是中国和文莱。这不是美国的“假想敌”第一次参加环太军演,但两年前应邀参加的俄罗斯">俄罗斯这次却“遗憾”缺席。鉴于日本">日本、菲律宾越南等国不断搅乱东海和南海的局势、中美军事交流频繁又时有磕绊,中国海军此次参加军演甚至被一些舆论形容为“单刀赴会”。确实,除了眼前的僵局和争议,美国一些不合时宜、带有冷战思维的歧视性法案就像“紧箍咒”一样,也让中美两军军事交流不可能走得特别“近”,这也是中国海军不能参加传统作战课目演习的原因。但一个善意邀请,一个诚意参加,已经让美国海军战争学院的学者得出结论,美国已寻求中国“在既有的自由海洋秩序中成为负责任的利益攸关方”。

  1971年开始的“环太平洋”军演是冷战的产物,最初的主要“假想敌”是苏联。因此,即使在苏联解体多年后,俄罗斯也只在2012年参加过一次环太军演。对中国应邀参加2014年环太军演,“俄罗斯之声”认为,尽管中国与美国亚太主要盟友日本的领土争端持续发酵,但中国仍被邀请,这表明“现在的游戏规则是一边吵架一边合作”。

  据美国海军协会会刊《海上力量》杂志网站透露,美国国防部24日宣布,来自23个国家的47艘军舰、6艘潜艇、200多架飞机和2.5万名官兵参加今年的环太军演。作为世界上最大规模的海上军演,环太军演为参与促进和维持确保海上航线和安全的国际合作提供了独一无二的训练机会。中国海军首次参加环太军演就派出1100多名官兵,精锐舰艇包括导弹驱逐舰海口舰、导弹护卫舰岳阳舰、综合补给舰千岛湖舰以及“和平方舟”医院船。中国参加军演的规模仅次于美国。

  据了解,环太军演中,中国海军将和美国、法国">法国、墨西哥">墨西哥、文莱组成一个特混舰队,进行人道主义救援、海上安全行动(反海盗、打击武器非法运输)、水下搜救等涉及非传统安全的7个课目。这些演习可以为马航失联搜救、韩国">韩国沉船事故后续搜救等积累经验。这次演习的另一个亮点是,中国的“和平方舟”号与美国的“仁慈”号两艘医院船将首次进行交流活动。

  香港《南华早报》网站24日以“首次参加‘环太平洋’军演,中国海军‘单刀赴会’”为题评论说,对美日和中国来说,环太军演的政治外交意义大于军事意义,各自都会表明在太平洋的军事存在,震慑潜在对手的念头心照不宣。谈到中国参加环太军演的特殊意义,中国海洋军事学术研究所研究员张军社25日告诉《环球时报》记者,把中国海军参加环太军演形容为“单刀赴会”有点不妥,中国参加军演并不是多危险的事情,对中美两国来说是“双赢”,显示出美国的善意邀请,中国的善意回应。美国想维持“亚太再平衡”战略,不能不与在亚洲人力、军力都很强的中国和平相处,这样美国才能减少对中国的误解和误判。中国派出性能最新和最好的战舰,中国军人还会与其他国家的军人搞篮球赛、足球赛等文体活动以及举行研讨会,从多边角度看也让其他国家海军有了与中国海军面对面交流的机会,增加了中国海军的透明度,有助于减少“中国威胁论”。

  美国外交政策和军事分析师、纽约东西方研究院资深研究员弗朗茨·史提芬·盖迪23日在“中美聚焦网”以“环太军演2014和中美军事关系的未来”为题的文章中写道:“中国参演是一个明确信号,即美中都不希望两国间的军事关系恶化。”盖迪认为,这是双方军队和政府高层领导更努力深化两国军事关系的一部分。如美国防长哈格尔上次访华期间双方达成的多层次军方对话,以及去年6月中国领导人习近平在“习奥会”上呼吁中美建立“新型大国关系”。

  俄罗斯高等经济学院教授叶夫斯塔菲耶夫认为,在美方的邀请决定中有其逻辑性和一定的战略考量。他说:“美国正处于一个复杂时期,陷入一系列尖锐冲突,就像厨师遇到几个锅同时开锅。因此,华盛顿自然最不想让中国再成为不友好的力量。”同样,俄专家认为,参加这一军演也符合中方利益,可让中国展示军事外交的开放,并可能减少因东海和南海局势激化而招来的部分批评。

  美国海军战争学院教授詹姆斯·霍尔姆斯近日在接受“德国">德国之声”采访时表示,无论对中美政府,还是其他同盟、友好国家和旁观者而言,此举都是为缓和紧张局势。对美国而言,这意味着中国已默许美国海军自1945年以来一直主导的亚洲秩序。在中国看来,缓和紧张意味着美国顺从中国在北京宣布的海域和空域内制定管理军事活动的规则。

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5123111
The Middle East and the Pivot to Asia: Obama’s US Foreign Policy Bait and Switch
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

The Middle East and the Pivot to Asia: Obama’s US Foreign Policy Bait and Switch

Global Research, June 13, 2014

President Obama chose to ignore the most important strategic aspect of U.S. foreign policy in his major address May 28 at West Point graduation ceremonies. It was perhaps thought politically wise to emphasize current events rather than military preparations for a possible major future confrontation with China.

Instead Obama mainly focused on defending his policies against mounting criticism from warhawks in both parties variously demanding that the U.S. attack Syria, or Iran or Venezuela, and adopt more provocative measures toward Russia. He was even criticized for not being tougher toward China, which is preposterous, as we shall discuss in this article when deeds, not words, are examined.

Obama swings back and forth on toughness (he’ll bomb, not bomb, Syria) but he was correct to spend time explaining why he opposed the hawks this time around. Why get bogged down in Syria and Iran or into immediate clashes with Beijing and Moscow when there is a far more important long-range objective for the White House and those who rule America. At the same time, on his trip to Poland in early June, Obama rattled sabers to the delight of European allies, sending jets and military equipment and encouraging them to increase defense spending against the nonexistent “threat” from Russia.

Oddly, the president identified “terrorism” as the main direct threat to America “for the foreseeable future,” but just a year ago he suggested the war on terrorism was ending. He also wants several African countries to join the war on terrorism in place of the U.S. in most cases and is spending $5 billion to pay them off. He further pledged to continue supplying the non-jihadist sector of the war against the Syrian government when everyone knows the jihadists, particularly al-Qaeda’s Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, are responsible for the large bulk of the fighting.

Entirely omitted from his speech was the “pivot” to Asia and the principal thrust of foreign/military policy — maintaining unilateral (or unipolar) U.S. global hegemony when time appears to be running out on this endeavor. Washington attained solo world leadership, which it has transformed into world domination, by default, when the Soviet Union unexpectedly imploded more than 20 years ago, leaving but one superpower on top. That superpower has no intention of abdicating the global throne.

During this same period, however, other nations — such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, for example — have arisen to demand a more representative and collegial multilateral world order in place of one-nation world leadership. They think the U.S. throws its weight around more than it should; that it is too violent toward other countries and peoples; and that its main goal as leader is to further its own interests first, not those of the world. These states are getting stronger as America becomes weaker economically and politically incapacitated in internal affairs. Washington’s ability to order other nations around, which goes back in some cases to the mid-1800s, is declining, but this probably will continue for many years.

Much of Latin America, as an example of this change in world affairs, has broken away from its former overlord. And look how these other key countries have changed: Russia from 1991 to 2001 was prostrate and subservient to the United States. China until the mid-1990s was not considered a major industrial society. India, until somewhat later was in the same category. Brazil’s rise was even more recent. At the same time it appears that the U.S. economy has become stagnant, boosted by periodic financial bubbles that eventually burst in the face of the deteriorating working class, lower middle and portions of the middle class.

It is worth stressing at this point that (1) elements of multilateral leadership have already appeared on the world stage and that (2) Beijing has not evidenced a scintilla of interest in itself becoming world hegemon, replacing the U.S.

For these and other reasons the number one strategic foreign/military objective of the present and future U.S. government is to block or greatly delay the inevitable development of multilateral leadership, though it is never acknowledged openly. (Should the U.S. ever consent to sharing leadership in future, it probably would demand the status of first among equals.)

Obama hinted at his long-range goal in the West Point speech, camouflaged in nationalist jingoism, hubris and braggadocio:

“The United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century past, and it will be true for the century to come…. Here’s my bottom line: America must always lead on the world stage. If we don’t, no one else will. The military that you have joined is, and always will be, the backbone of that leadership…. I believe in American exceptionalism with every fiber of my being.”

In the first sentence substitute for the words “indispensable nation” the words “global hegemon” and you get the point. And while it is true that in time China may far exceed the U.S. economically and develop several major allies in the process, the U.S. military will insure American supremacy continues through this century — or so Obama slyly suggests.

Obama not only neglected to mention retaining hegemony, he avoided touching on Washington’s program to preserve its exalted status — the three-year-old reorientation of foreign policy primacy from the Middle East to Asia.

The transition has been slower than expected because the White House and State Department have been preoccupied by Iran, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Israel/Palestine, the Afghan war, drone wars in several other countries, and the Ukrainian imbroglio — this latter an entanglement of White House creation by supporting the ouster of the democratically elected president in Kiev. Political paralysis at home is another reason. The budget crisis forced Obama to cancel attending an important weeklong journey to four Asian countries in October to attend two regional summit meetings. Also the resignation of prime pivot advocate Hillary Clinton slowed the pivot process.

The delay in focusing on Asia provoked Richard N. Haass, who heads the establishment’s Council on Foreign Relations, to write April 22:

“U.S. foreign policy is in troubling disarray…. The change [to Asia] is warranted by the fact that the United States has enormous interests in the Asia-Pacific region, which is home to many of the countries likely to dominate the current century…. A Secretary of State [John Kerry] can only do so much; time spent in Jerusalem and Geneva is time not spent in Tokyo and Beijing.”

The pivot has moved somewhat forward with Obama’s recent (April 22-27) trip to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines.

The Asia policy has two main goals: (1) To politically constrain the international rise of China even within its own logical sphere of interest in East Asia. (2) To interject Washington deeply into Asia’s economic milieu, and for American corporations to become more profitably involved with the region’s extraordinary economic growth, especially since it now is the most advantageous location for direct investment, both to and from the United States.

Like the “Devil’s Pitchfork,” the pivot has three prongs:

1. Political: The best way to undermine China regionally is to surround the country with U.S. allies, a process that is nearly complete. Washington has been engaged in this effort since the success of the Communist revolution in 1949. To quote from an article in the May-June Foreign Affairs: “The United States has five defense treaty allies in the region (Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand), as well as strategically important partnerships with Brunei, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan and evolving ties with Myanmar” and Vietnam. In East/Southeast Asia this leaves Beijing with friendly Russia, troubled North Korea, essentially allied Cambodia, and Laos with one foot in China and the other in Vietnam.

Since the pivot was announced, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam have become embroiled with China over territorial claims in the vast East and South China Sea as never before. These are long standing differences but were largely low-key disputes until the U.S. interjected itself on behalf of its allies.

It was reported May 25 in Chinatopix that Washington is constructing a new “security alliance [consisting] of the Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and Japan, according to unnamed official sources in the Philippine government. Press reports from Manila said Washington also wants to include Singapore and Thailand in the alliance while encouraging Malaysia to become its strategic partner.”

Last month, Obama announced the U.S. would abide by the terms of its defense treaty with Japan if its dispute with China about dominion over the Diaoyu islands (called Senkaku by Japan) became a serious confrontation. The U.S. hasn’t said what it would do in that event. At worst is the surreal possibility of a war over possession of several uninhabited mostly barren islands that are little more than rocks, the largest being 1.7 miles square. The irony is that the Obama Administration does not have a position on which country actually has the right to possession —Taiwan also claims the islands — but it will defend Japan in event of a confrontation.

“In the Chinese perception,” according to J.M. Norton in The Diplomat April 21:

“Washington is the principal driver of Japan’s transformation. Over time it has helped transform [‘pacifist’] Japan’s self-defense force into a national military. And it has assisted the Japanese side in acquiring and manufacturing through joint cooperation technologically advanced weapon systems, some of which have offensive capabilities. Right now the Chinese leadership sees the U.S. as the main driver of Japan’s resurgence and as lacking the political will to restrain an increasingly assertive Japan. Further, the current Japanese leadership’s increasing assertiveness takes place in the context of growing nationalism with an imperial twist. In short, from the Chinese viewpoint, U.S. leaderships have spurred the ‘revival and outward expansion of Japanese militarism,’ which represents a violation of Chinese concerns articulated in the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué establishing Sino-U.S. relations.”

2. Economic: Washington’s hoped for economic power in the Far East is the vast expansion of the relatively small Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was formed by the Bush Administration in 2006. The Obama Administration seeks to transform the TPP into the most important free trade organization in the East Asia/Pacific region with participating countries from the Americas, the main Pacific island nations, and as many states on the Asian mainland as possible. Ideally, from the White House perspective, such an entity would surpass all other East and South Asian regional trade groupings. China, which has been excluded from the TPP, supports development of an inter-Asian trade organization similar to a 2012 proposal by the Association of South East Asian Nations. According to a June 9 article in Global Times by Lancaster University (UK) Professor Du Ming, “Both ASEAN and China share concerns that the TPP may be a centrifugal force arising to rip asunder the economic integration of East Asia.”

An important purpose of the TPP is to position the U.S. as a major economic actor in Asia, reinforcing its global dominance and extending its sphere of influence into China’s front and back yards. The trade deal, however, has encountered many problems in the U.S. as well as Asia. Among some countries, including many people and politicians in the U.S., there is a fear that the still mostly secret deal allows capitalism to run riot against the interests of the people. Congress has rejected Obama’s demand for fast-track approval of TTP, indicating continued delay as changes are made. Supporters of environmental sanity, labor rights and full disclosure are among the most vociferous opponents.

Despite satisfying the U.S. by apparent willingness to return toward militarism, Japan’s right wing nationalist Prime Minister Shinzo Abe refused Obama his main reason for visiting Tokyo in April. He did not agree to become a TPP member, despite the American president’s extreme entreaties. Japan — the intended Asian keystone of the project — demands concessions on agricultural tariffs and automobiles.

It must be understood that the United States has no desire to weaken China economically, just politically so that it cannot erode Washington’s unilateral world leadership. Indeed, as Indian correspondent M. K. Bhadrakumar wrote in Asia Times May 9:

“China’s growth is integral to the recovery and rejuvenation of the American economy. China is potentially the principal source of investment in the American economy. China’s proposed reforms in the direction of opening up the financial system and domestic market are hugely attractive for the American business.”

3. Military: This is where all Washington’s continual pledges that it isn’t out to “contain” China fall apart. The U.S. has surrounded China with an ever-increasing ring of military fire, from NSA surveillance and spy satellites, to Army, Marine, Navy and Air Force bases; from nuclear-armed submarines and a majority of America’s 11 mammoth aircraft carriers to warships, bombers and fighters in dozens of varieties; from short-, medium- and long-range missiles to thousands of nuclear weapons that can be fired from the U.S. and demolish hundreds of major Chinese cities. This does not include firepower from America’s ally, Japan, which amazingly possesses a larger and stronger navy and air force than China.

While it is true China is far behind the U.S. in military technology, weapons development and a contemporary arsenal it is trying to catch up. The U.S. continually complains about the size of Beijing’s war budget, but it is at most a tenth that of the U.S. budget. Indeed, the 2012 combined military spending of China, Russia, the UK, Japan, France, Saudi Arabia, India, Germany, Italy and Brazil are close but cannot match the Pentagon’s yearly spending about $650 billion — and this doesn’t count an almost equal sum for national security outlay, including Homeland Defense, enormous interest payments on past war debts, building and maintaining nuclear weapons, fielding 17 government spy agencies and costs related to security and war by other government departments.

But isn’t the U.S. cutting defense spending while China is increasing? In answer we’ll quote from President Obama’s November 2011 speech to the Australian parliament when he announced the U.S. was expanding its role in the Asia/Pacific region:

“I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority. As a result, reductions in U.S. defense spending will not, I repeat, will not, come at the expense of the Asia Pacific. Indeed, we are already modernizing America’s defense posture across the Asia Pacific. It will be more broadly distributed, maintaining our strong presence in Japan and the Korean peninsula, while enhancing our presence in South-East Asia.”

Two things must be kept in mind:

(1) Militarily, China is at least 20 years behind the U.S., but it is swiftly improving its weapons technology, development and manufacturing. The U.S., however, is doing the same and it plans to retain a huge lead well into the future. (2) Beijing has sought no military bases abroad (compared to 800 for the Pentagon) because its main interest by far is developing, enriching and protecting its own territory. Don’t touch Tibet. Breakaway Taiwan does not deny it is part of China, so its apostasy is accepted. Hong Kong is what the Chinese Communist Party used to call a bourgeois democracy, but it remains part of China so hands off. China has some sharp squabbles with its neighbors, which is unfortunate, but it is about China Sea territories Beijing has long assumed were part of China. The present system is too confrontational and it is not all because of China by any means, despite contrary White House allegations.

Since the pivot was announced, the number of U.S. bases in Asia/Pacific has been expanding rapidly, from Australia to the Philippines. According to Agence France Presse April 28:

“The Pentagon has been scouring the western Pacific for alternative airfields for its aircraft, harbors for its ships and bases for its troops…. The plan to spread the U.S. military’s presence across the region accelerated in late April as President Barack Obama visited the Philippines. Although Manila asked the U.S. to vacate its longstanding bases in the country [in 1991 after mass protests], Chinese assertiveness has generated a change of heart: the U.S. and the Philippines signed a new agreement today that will allow more visits by U.S. aircraft and ships and a rotating presence of marines….

“The U.S. military has been quietly putting in place arrangements that will give it a much broader geographic presence in the Asia-Pacific region to deal with the growing challenge from China…. One part of that new approach has been to boost [military] co-operation with longstanding allies…. The other approach has been to revamp older facilities on the many small islands further out into the Pacific, most of which are at the outer edge of China’s missile range.”

Incidentally, the U.S. and Japan have both agreed not to respect China’s establishment of an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea that includes the Diaoyu islands. Beijing’s zone overlaps that of Tokyo (which has existed since 1969), reflecting differences over territorial rights. Beijing’s zone extends 81 miles from China, exactly the length of Tokyo’s zone from Japan. The ADIZ, in accordance with international rules, requires aircraft to be identified when entering the zone. The day after China’s move last November, a U.S. plane entered the zone intentionally not identifying itself, a practice that has continued without any Chinese retaliation. Should an airplane enter the U.S. ADIZ refusing to identify itself, warplanes would force the offending aircraft to the ground one way or another.

It could fill a book to list and describe all the military preparations the U.S. is taking vis-à-vis China. If Beijing just took one similar step, such as sending a surveillance ship into the Caribbean, as the U.S. does routinely in the China Sea, there would be a threatening outcry from Washington to desist or face military action.

The point is that while aspects of the pivot may have slowed down somewhat, the military part is developing rapidly. Reports about the buildup appear in the press from time to time, but the great majority of the American people have no idea what’s happening, and many who do are misled.

It’s probably understandable why President Obama refused to mention the pivot, much less the details, in his speech. But if he did it would only be in superficial generalities about America’s good intentions. As yet there has not been an honest national discussion of the purpose behind the military buildup, the defense treaties, the TPP, the effort to contain China and the dedication to continue American leadership (global hegemony) for the rest of the century. To do so, in a nationwide speech no less, would make it appear that a serious future confrontation may be on the horizon. And that, of course, is impossible — isn’t it?

www.globalresearch.ca/the-middle-east-and-the-pivot-to-asia-obamas-us-foreign-policy-bait-and-switch/5386941" data-title="The Middle East and the Pivot to Asia: Obama’s US Foreign Policy Bait and Switch">
Copyright © 2014 Global Research
回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5117781
大陸網友對南海前途的想定
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

强悍:习主席在南海做出一重大决策

http://www.fxingw.com/wwjx/2014-06-14/67787.html

2014-06-14 15:07:22    来源:互联网    编辑:mohuangrui

南沙大建人工岛不止着眼南沙,更是为了控制马六甲海峡

  大家想象了10多年的南沙填海造地,终于成了国家的决策,若干年后,南沙必将建成几个1-5平方公里的人工岛。

  到那时,以强大的军事实力和经济实力为支撑,以这些人工岛为前沿基地,控制整个南沙群岛和整个南海,自不在话下。

  笔者这里要说的是我们纠结了几十年的马六甲海峡。

1.jpg

图为中国军舰停靠新加坡樟宜海军基地码头。新加坡是马六甲海峡的重要战略据点

  马六甲海峡以及附近的巽他海峡等战略水道的重要性也无须多说。马六甲等水道对中国是如此重要,却是美国表示必须控制的16条水道之一。

2.jpg

中国在南海赤瓜礁填海造陆

  多少年来,如何和敌人争夺和控制马六甲海峡,一直是我等纠结的对象之一,现在,我们终于可以说,中国真的要具备争夺和控制马六甲海峡的实力了。

  中国在赤瓜、永暑、美济甚至安达等礁的填海造地,已经在习近平主席的英明决策下,以标准的中国速度进行。 

  几年后,几个面积1-3平方公里不等的人工岛上,将会建成一个个各种用途的机场、港口、村庄、城镇,再过几年的10年后,最大的那个主岛,将达到5平方公里的面积。
  这其中必将包括2个军用机场和几个军用港口,部署一批歼-11、歼-20、歼-31、各型无人机、侦察机、预警机、搜救机,驱逐舰、护卫舰、巡逻舰、潜艇、侦察船、登陆舰、补给舰。其他警用、民用的机场、港口也都将具有军用功能。

这样的实力,足以令10年后的周边各国胆寒,加上随时可以赶赴南沙的几个航母群、两栖打击大队和空军的轰-6K、轰-20战略轰炸机群,即便美国想进来插一杠子,也会感到力不从心。

  以南沙中南部岛屿,到马六甲海峡1000公里左右的距离,歼-11、歼-20、预警机、大型侦察机都可以有效覆盖马六甲海峡的东出口。

  对新加坡、马来西亚、印尼形成直接的军事威慑力,将来一旦有事,他们都不可能主动或被迫加入美国一方,对中国的这一重要海运线实施封锁。4.jpg

中国军舰

或者说,他们即使这么做,中国也可以先用战斗机夺取制空权,并用战略轰炸机射出几波巡航导弹,给其以灭国性的打击。

5527010_220124325108_2.jpg

歼15舰载机

 再用这些基地、航母群、两栖打击大队、空降兵群,直接登陆马六甲两岸。马六甲的安全畅通从此就有了保证。
  10年后中国控制马六甲海峡,同期或者稍晚的2030年获得整个第一岛链的对马海峡、宫古水道、台湾东北水道、台湾海峡、巴士拉海峡、巽他海峡等主要水道的军事优势,也就彻底打破了美国在西太平洋的霸权,美国在西太平洋的军事、政治、经济存在,将不再是主导性的,中国将取代美国成为西太平洋的主导性军事、政治、经济力量

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5117543
美智库调查东亚统治力:超7成中国大陆专家选美国
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

美智库调查东亚统治力:超7成中国大陆专家选美国



http://www.guancha.cn/strategy/2014_06_07_235695.shtml“大多数亚洲学者认为中国将成为该地区的主导力量,但仍支持美国在亚太保持强势存在”——法新社6日报道称,总部位于美国华盛顿的国际战略研究中心(CSIS)5日发布对亚太11个国家和地区402名“战略精英”的调查结果,53%的受访专家认为中国将在未来十年成为在东亚最具统治力的国家,56%的人认为中国将成为本国(或地区,下同)最重要的经济伙伴。但同时,除中国以外,其他几乎所有国家和地区的多数专家都支持美国总统奥巴马提出的转向亚洲(重返亚太)政策。有趣的是,调查结果显示,71%的中国专家认为,未来十年美国将是东亚最具统治力的大国,这一比例超过其他任何国家,包括美国。CSIS专家就此称,该结果“揭穿了有关所有中国人都自大、自信和富有侵略性的谎言”。

该报告名为“亚洲的权力与秩序——地区期望调查”,调查于今年3月24日至4月22日进行。调查对象由CSIS的亚洲专家团队挑选,402名“战略精英”被定义为在国际或亚洲地区政治讨论中具有影响力,但目前不在本国政府的立法、司法和行政机关担任职务的专家。调查报告称,对精英阶层的调查具有局限性,调查对象的挑选具有主观性,他们很多曾在政府决策部门担任高级职务,调查结果也无法同大规模、随机性的民众调查相比。402名专家共来自11个国家和地区,其中美国81人,中国大陆35人,台湾29人,日本52人,韩国59人,印度33人,另有澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、新加坡、泰国和缅甸的专家。

在被问及你认为“中美哪一国将在未来十年成为在东亚最具统治力的国家”时,中国大陆专家中有26%选择中国,71%选择美国,意外成为选择美国比例最高的国家这个比例比其他国家包括日本都来得高。而美国专家中32%选择中国,68%选择美国。

美智库调查未来十年东亚统治力:超7成中国大陆专家选美国

美智库调查未来十年东亚统治力:超7成中国大陆专家意外选美国

印度尼西亚、印度和泰国专家对中国的期望值最高,分别有70%、79%和89%的人认为中国将在未来十年成为在东亚最具统治力的国家。总体平均来看,53%的受访专家选择中国,43%选择美国。法新社引述CSIS中国问题专家、前中情局分析师克里斯托夫-约翰逊的话分析说,此次调查揭穿了有关所有中国人都自大、自信和富有侵略性的谎言。他还称,该调查与2008年经济危机时相比发生了大的转变,当时许多中国人预测美国将会大幅度衰退,怀疑美国是否实现持续增长。约翰逊说,可是当前的这份调查显示,这种看法已不复存在,反倒是中国国内对于中国是否能持续保持增长,浮现了质疑的声音。

“亚太学者对中国经济和安全的看法出现巨大差距”,调查报告称,79%的受访学者认为中国对地区经济发展的影响“非常或比较正面”,61%的受访者认为中国对地区安全局势的影响“非常或比较负面”。

法新社称,基于中日关系因历史问题和领土主权争端而日渐恶化,日本对于美国占统治性地位最为热心。只有2%的日本专家表示,中国在地区安全中扮演了积极角色。“83%的日本受访专家希望未来十年日本最重要的双边经济关系是日美关系,尽管中国业已成为日本最大的贸易伙伴。”此外,印度学者中,也有更多人希望美国而非中国成为其主要经济伙伴。

在“你对未来十年东亚政治权势变动的预期”和“你认为何种变动对本国最有利”的问题中,受访者出现分化。美国及其在亚洲的盟友澳大利亚、日本、韩国和中国台湾的大多数专家选择“让美国继续发挥领导作用,即便美国力量相对衰退”。东南亚和印度的精英们则选择国际合作,印度尼西亚、印度和泰国分别有约80%、60%和50%的学者认为东亚建立“多边体系和国际合作”最符合本国利益。法新社称,甚至在中国国内,也很少有人认为东亚将出现“中国霸权”的格局,超过40%的中国学者认为国际合作对中国最有利。

在“你是否支持奥巴马总统的亚太再平衡战略时”,除中国外大多数地方的专家都表示支持。但与日韩相比,东南亚国家倾向于选择美国“安静、持续的存在”。CSIS中国问题专家邦尼-格拉瑟说,东南亚国家感谢美国在面临南海紧张局面时对于自由通航的维护,但他们不希望看到美国与中国之间爆发对抗和摩擦。

法新社称,美国的传统盟友——泰国在此次调查中的表现值得注意。89%的泰国专家表示,未来十年,中国将在东亚地区拥有最大的影响力,只有不到10%的人认为,美国继续发挥领导作用符合泰国利益,这与其他美国盟友形成了鲜明对比。CSIS的东南亚研究主任厄尼-鲍尔说,泰国精英阶层的态度表明了他们对于美国在1997年亚洲金融危机中的表现以及2006年因为军事政变而短暂制裁泰国感到失望。

请支持独立网站,转发请注明本文链接:http://www.guancha.cn/strategy/2014_06_07_235695.shtml
回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5112867
美代表:美不想與中國開戰 對日本也很不滿
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 
美代表:美不想與中國開戰 對日本也很不滿 掃描二維碼訪問中評社微信
http://www.CRNTT.com   2014-06-03 16:24:39

http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1032/2/0/1/103220185.html
  中評社香港6月3日電/有分析認為,雖然言辭激烈,但中美日關係並沒有惡化到不可挽回的地步。路透社援引新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院院長馬凱碩的話說,“整體說來局面在向正確方向發展,沒人認為會爆發戰爭,但現在確實存在一絲不安,這是一種新現象。”華盛頓戰略和國際研究中心的葛萊儀表示,關係還遠未到破裂的地步,各國領導人都知道保持關係意義重大,也努力去尋找利益重叠的地方開展合作。美國前防長科恩表示,美日發表強硬言論是必要的:“中國在發展成熟,現在中國要施展一下手腕,這在無制衡情況下是正常的。” 

  環球時報報道,一名與會美方代表對《環球時報》透露,美國方面強調了美國“亞太再平衡”戰略是著眼於亞洲的經濟增長與經濟繁榮,並不是要與中國發生戰爭。此外,美國對日本在TPP談判上的磨蹭表現相當不滿。一名與會美國官員對美國全國廣播公司表示,中國代表團的調門在王冠中結束公開講話後馬上變得友好了。這名美國官員說:“有時這種會議就是這麼個開法,私下裡和公開的說法是不同的。” 

  中國人民大學國際關係學院副院長金燦榮2日對《環球時報》說,中美在多邊場合相互“強硬表態”可能會是一種“常態”,不過,這種坦率並不意味著中美彼此會逾越“底線”。中美私下的二軌交流依然是非常穩固與通暢的。在香格里拉對話“歐洲與亞洲地區安全秩序構建”分會上,與會的金燦榮表示,亞洲存在兩個狀態,“地緣政治上的亞洲”和“地緣經濟上的亞洲”。在不同的狀態,中美日之間的競合關係是不同的,需要具體問題具體分析。
回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5109677
中美學者辯論 閻學通:不必質疑中國的和平 2014-06-04
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 
中美學者辯論 閻學通:不必質疑中國的和平

http://www.CRNTT.com   2014-06-04 



卡內基國際和平基金會舉辦美中關係研討會 中評社記者 余東暉攝
  中評社華盛頓6月3日電(記者 余東暉)中國知名國際關係學者閻學通在此間指出,因為中國不是西方俱樂部的一員,不管中國做什麼,都會被視為威脅。他認為,不必質疑中國的和平崛起,只要中美之間還能相互保持有效的核威懾,儘管中國核能力較弱,仍能在亞太地區保持和平。 

  清華大學當代國際關係研究院院長閻學通是日前在美國智庫卡內基國際和平基金會舉辦的研討會上做此論斷的。 

  他對中評社記者表示,中國在海上爭端和主權問題上具體處理的技巧有可能不太成熟,但大方向是正確的,即中國要確保周邊國家不在主權問題上故意挑釁中國。 

  香格里拉亞洲安全對話會剛在新加坡落幕,美日越聯手指責中國在海上爭端方面咄咄逼人,單方面改變現狀,中方代表強力反擊,會上出現唇槍舌劍之場面。在美國國內,外交學界關於中國外交政策希望和平崛起與行為日趨強硬自相矛盾的看法也時常可見。 

  美國國防大學中國軍事事務研究中心主任孫飛(Phillip Saunders)日前在威爾遜學者中心舉行的研討會上稱,中國外交面臨的“戰略困境”是,一方面要與地區其它國家和解,保持經濟發展需要的和平穩定環境,另一方面要在地區發揮主導作用,在領土主張上更加強硬,還要不激怒美國,並保持地區穩定。他認為,中國很難做到這種“自行矛盾”的平衡。 

  孫飛分析,現在中國採取的戰術是,分化對手,不讓領土爭議方聯合起來反對中國;依靠海監、漁監等准軍事部門執法,但以強大的軍力做後盾;保持對競爭對手的威懾力,警告它們不要挑戰中國;做好準備,抓住機會應對,並改變現狀。他說,中國一方面知道不能逼對方太甚,否則就把它們逼入美國的懷抱,同時要美國保持旁觀,不要介入;另一方面,希望美國出面約束盟友不要與中國對抗。 

  過去兩三個月,美國在亞洲海上爭端問題上的立場愈益明顯,儘管奧巴馬政府表示對主權終極歸屬不采立場,但頻頻公開指責中方採取挑釁行動,並要求中方按國際法辦事。加上美方在網絡安全問題上起訴中國軍官,中美關係由是趨於緊張。 

在卡內基國際和平基金會舉辦的美中關係研討會上,有美方學者問:為何中方的外交政策自相矛盾,在國際爭端中更加咄咄逼人?閻學通反問:當年中國行為還不像西方媒體說的那麼強硬時,中美之間難道有好的關係?中美關係穩定嗎?美國當時難道不覺得中國是威脅?他指出,“中國威脅論”始於1993年,即便那時中國還不像現在這般自信。不管中國做什麼,總是被視為威脅;即便發生了撞機和炸館事件,中國依然是威脅。為什麼?因為中國不是西方俱樂部的一員。他自問自答:“為什麼中國作為1984年以來唯一沒有介入任何戰爭的大國,仍被看作威脅?我的理解,不是中國有什麼行為的問題,而是中國是否加入西方俱樂部的問題。” 

  隨後又有美國聽眾質疑中國和平崛起,閻學通表示,和平是戰爭的反義詞,沒有遭遇戰爭,又談何不和平?歐洲在冷戰結束後還遭遇過兩場戰爭,而東亞冷戰後再沒有發生戰爭,儘管確實有發生意外的風險。他說,只要中美之間能保持相互的核威懾,雖然中方的核能力較弱,就仍能保持本地區的和平。如果中國核能力能加強到與美國對稱的程度,則本地區和平更有保證。 

  曾任白宮國安會中國事務主任的清華—卡內基全球政策中心主任韓磊(Paul Haenle)指出,中國提出建立“新型大國關係”,是想得到更多的尊重。美國如果真有遏制中國的政策,必定會遭到慘敗,中國不可能被遏制,問題在於中國怎樣對國際社會的公共利益做出建設性貢獻。中國抱怨西方主導的秩序,抱怨西方解決危機的方式,但中國應提出自己具有建設性的方式,這是中國獲得尊重和建設新型大國關係必需的。 

韓磊認為,去年美中元首陽光之鄉峰會後,網絡安全、海上爭端、軍事關係等一些問題亟待處理,但從那以後再沒有那種不系領帶、隨性的深入交談的安排,只有正式會議之外的領導人會晤,其實解決不了太多問題。雙方應當多尋求可合作的領域,判定利益重合點。 

  閻學通則指出,中美雙方過分強調互信基礎上的合作,如果得不到合作,就認為對方不是朋友,不可信任,其實可換一種思維,即沒有信任也能合作,就像當年毛澤東與尼克松握手時,雙方根本沒有信任,但為了共同利益走到一起。他認為,雙方對合作的期待值不必太高,應當更多地尋求在沒有信任的情況下如何發展合作。 

  閻學通對中評社記者表示,新型大國關係要管理的就是在沒有共同利益時,如何發展預防性的合作,不能沒有共同利益就不發展合作,往往在利益有衝突時更需要發展預防性合作,就像當年克林頓訪華時與中方達成核武器互不瞄准協議一樣。 
 

http://hk.crntt.com/doc/1032/1/9/7/103219722_2.html?coluid=93&kindid=7950&docid=103219722&mdate=0604002218

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5109673
歐巴馬主義:US Must Lead Globally but Show Restraint
    回應給: 沙包(solpao) 推薦0


lukacs
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

US Must Lead Globally but Show Restraint

Full transcript of President Obama’s commencement address at West Point

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/full-text-of-president-obamas-commencement-address-at-west-point/2014/05/28/cfbcdcaa-e670-11e3-afc6-a1dd9407abcf_story.html

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you, General Caslen, for that introduction. General Trainor, General Clarke, faculty and staff at West Point, you have been outstanding stewards of this proud institution and outstanding mentors for the newest officers in the United States Army.

I’d like to acknowledge the Army’s leadership -- General McHugh -- Secretary McHugh, General Odierno, as well as Senator Jack Reed who is here and a proud graduate of West Point himself. To the class of 2014, I congratulate you on taking your place on the Long Gray Line.

Among you is the first all-female command team: Erin Mauldin and Austen Boroff. In Calla Glavin, you have a Rhodes Scholar, and Josh Herbeck proves that West Point accuracy extends beyond the three point line. (Laughter.)

To the entire class, let me reassure you in these final hours at West Point, as commander in chief, I hereby absolve all cadets who are on restriction for minor conduct offenses. (Laughter, applause.)

Let me just say that nobody ever did that for me when I was in school.

I know you join me in extending a word of thanks to your families. Joe DeMoss, whose son James is graduating, spoke for a whole lot of parents when he wrote me a letter about the sacrifices you’ve made. “Deep inside,” he wrote, “we want to explode with pride at what they are committing to do in the service of our country.” Like several graduates, James is a combat veteran, and I would ask all of us here today to stand and pay tribute not only to the veterans among us, but to the more than 2.5 million Americans who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as their families. (Applause.)

It is a particularly useful time for America to reflect on those who’ve sacrificed so much for our freedom, a few days after Memorial Day. You are the first class to graduate since 9/11 who may not be sent into combat in Iraq or Afghanistan. (Cheers, applause.)

When I first spoke at West Point in 2009, we still had more than 100,000 troops in Iraq. We were preparing to surge in Afghanistan. Our counterterrorism efforts were focused on al-Qaida’s core leadership -- those who had carried out the 9/11 attacks. And our nation was just beginning a long climb out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Four and a half years later, as you graduate, the landscape has changed. We have removed our troops from Iraq. We are winding down our war in Afghanistan. Al-Qaida’s leadership on the border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been decimated, and Osama bin Laden is no more. (Cheers, applause.) And through it all, we’ve refocused our investments in what has always been a key source of American strength: a growing economy that can provide opportunity for everybody who’s willing to work hard and take responsibility here at home.

In fact, by most measures America has rarely been stronger relative to the rest of the world. Those who argue otherwise -- who suggest that America is in decline or has seen its global leadership slip away -- are either misreading history or engaged in partisan politics.

Think about it. Our military has no peer. The odds of a direct threat against us by any nation are low, and do not come close to the dangers we faced during the Cold War. Meanwhile, our economy remains the most dynamic on Earth, our businesses the most innovative. Each year, we grow more energy independent. From Europe to Asia, we are the hub of alliances unrivaled in the history of nations.

America continues to attract striving immigrants. The values of our founding inspire leaders in parliaments and new movements in public squares around the globe. And when a typhoon hits the Philippines, or schoolgirls are kidnapped in Nigeria, or masked men occupy a building in Ukraine, it is America that the world looks to for help. (Applause.) So the United States is and remains the one indispensable nation. That has been true for the century past, and it will be true for the century to come.

But the world is changing with accelerating speed. This presents opportunity, but also new dangers. We know all too well, after 9/11, just how technology and globalization has put power once reserved for states in the hands of individuals, raising the capacity of terrorists to do harm.

Russia’s aggression towards former Soviet states unnerves capitals in Europe while China’s economic rise and military reach worries its neighbors.

From Brazil to India, rising middle classes compete with us, and governments seek a greater say in global forums. And even as developing nations embrace democracy and market economies, 24-hour news and social media makes it impossible to ignore the continuation of sectarian conflicts, failing states and popular uprisings that might have received only passing notice a generation ago.

It will be your generation’s task to respond to this new world. The question we face, the question each of you will face, is not whether America will lead but how we will lead, not just to secure our peace and prosperity but also extend peace and prosperity around the globe.

Now, this question isn’t new. At least since George Washington served as commander in chief, there have been those who warned against foreign entanglements that do not touch directly on our security or economic well-being.

Today, according to self-described realists, conflicts in Syria or Ukraine or the Central African Republic are not ours to solve. And not surprisingly, after costly wars and continuing challenges here at home, that view is shared by many Americans.

A different view, from interventionists from the left and right, says that we ignore these conflicts at our own peril, that America’s willingness to apply force around the world is the ultimate safeguard against chaos, and America’s failure to act in the face of Syrian brutality or Russian provocations not only violates our conscience, but invites escalating aggression in the future.

And each side can point to history to support its claims, but I believe neither view fully speaks to the demands of this moment. It is absolutely true that in the 21st century, American isolationism is not an option. We don’t have a choice to ignore what happens beyond our borders. If nuclear materials are not secure, that poses a danger to American citizens.

As the Syrian civil war spills across borders, the capacity of battle-hardened extremist groups to come after us only increases. Regional aggression that goes unchecked, whether in southern Ukraine or the South China Sea or anywhere else in the world, will ultimately impact our allies, and could draw in our military. We can’t ignore what happens beyond our boundaries.

And beyond these narrow rationales, I believe we have a real stake -- abiding self-interest -- in making sure our children and our grandchildren grow up in a world where schoolgirls are not kidnapped; where individuals aren’t slaughtered because of tribe or faith or political belief.

I believe that a world of greater freedom and tolerance is not only a moral imperative; it also helps keep us safe.

But to say that we have an interest in pursuing peace and freedom beyond our borders is not to say that every problem has a military solution. Since World War II, some of our most costly mistakes came not from our restraint but from our willingness to rush into military adventures without thinking through the consequences, without building international support and legitimacy for our action, without leveling with the American people about the sacrifices required. Tough talk often draws headlines, but war rarely conforms to slogans. As General Eisenhower, someone with hard-earned knowledge on this subject, said at this ceremony in 1947, “War is mankind’s most tragic and stupid folly; to seek or advise its deliberate provocation is a black crime against all men.”

Like Eisenhower, this generation of men and women in uniform know all too well the wages of war, and that includes those of you here at West Point. Four of the service members who stood in the audience when I announced the surge of our forces in Afghanistan gave their lives in that effort. A lot more were wounded.

I believe America’s security demanded those deployments. But I am haunted by those deaths. I am haunted by those wounds. And I would betray my duty to you, and to the country we love, if I sent you into harm’s way simply because I saw a problem somewhere in the world that needed to be fixed, or because I was worried about critics who think military intervention is the only way for America to avoid looking weak.

...................

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5109194
傅莹香格里拉对话会先发制人 驳安倍晋三“中国威胁论”
推薦0


沙包
等級:8
留言加入好友

 

傅莹香格里拉对话会先发制人 驳安倍晋三“中国威胁论”

字号:
2014-05-31 11:42:56
http://www.guancha.cn/politics/2014_05_31_234106.shtml

昨日(30日)下午5时30分许,全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹亮相香格里拉对话会,率先在这个亚太地区最有影响力的多边安全论坛上为中国发声。傅莹当时参加了主题为“亚太地区安全和外交管理”的电视辩论,就地区安全形势、中日关系、中美关系、地区争议问题等发表了看法,并抢在安倍当晚毫无新意的演讲之前,提前驳斥了日本的“中国威胁论”。

傅莹香格里拉对话会先发制人 驳安倍晋三“中国威胁论”

傅莹在香格里拉峰会。日媒评论:傅莹是安倍的强大对手

面对中国与日本、中国与菲律宾、中国与越南摩擦不断加剧,在将近一小时的辩论会中,傅莹多次提出亚洲增进互信,珍惜和平,以谈判解决问题的柔性诉求,但她也清楚表明,在中越的海上主权争议中,中国认为没有美国的位置。

在美国参议院外交事务委员本· 卡丁(Ben Cardin)的发言后,傅莹回应说:“我不觉得Ben(本·卡丁)可以到那里(西沙群岛)去帮我们解决问题。中国和越南必须找到出路。”

同场出席辩论的本· 卡丁在此前说,美国在南中国海领土争端中不偏袒任何一个国家,但美国重视航运自由,也非常关注挑衅的行为,并认为冲突应该在地区和国际组织的框架内解决,而非采取单边行动。他对傅莹说:“应该告诉你的邻居你想干什么。”

傅莹则表达中国无意与美国对抗。虽然中美可能一直都误判了对方,但是中美合作依然是两国唯一的出路,关键是怎么样在每一件事上体现共同合作的精神。她说:“我想两国之间没有过大的分歧,没有分歧大得能够让中美真的走到对抗的路上,我们都必须相互了解,相互的寻求共识。”

但中国也流露出对美国在本区域强化盟友关系的疑虑。在被问到美和菲律宾的军事合作时,傅莹形容美菲的盟友关系,是“冷战的残留产物”。她说,如果美国与盟友的关系把中国作为对立方,如果美国利用中国和邻国的摩擦来强化美国与盟友关系,中国会对这种同盟打上很大问号。

而更激烈的批评,她留给了日本首相安倍。

谈到中日有主权争端的钓鱼岛时,她批评说,安倍上任以来就“没有什么兴趣要解决钓鱼岛的争端”,反而在进一步扩大争端,并制造迷思(myth)将中国渲染为一个会威胁日本安全的国家。她说:“我想他让这个区域里的人担心的一点是,他会修改日本的安全策略”。

她强调,日本否认自身的侵略历史,更加剧了大家的担忧。

与傅莹一起参加辩论的有:美国参议院外交关系委员会东亚和太平洋事务小组委员会主席本杰明·卡丁、新加坡巡回大使许通美以及印度国会上议院议员、印度人民党全国发言人塔伦·维吉伊。

对于此次安倍“主动请缨”为香格里拉会议开幕会做主旨发言,日本《外交官》做出如下评价:对于这样的安排,中国不但没有慌乱,还派出重量级的代表团参与此次会议,这正是中国外交政策越来越明智,越来越成熟的体现。中方代表团包括全国人大外事委员会主任傅莹,她正是21世纪中国更温和、更细致入微的外交政策的典范。但是,傅莹外柔内刚。2012年,菲律宾和中国的船只在黄岩岛对峙时,她曾一反常态,严厉提醒马尼拉“不要误判形势”,不要“不考虑后果地加剧紧张局势”。此外,傅莹也曾和东京针锋相对。今年早些时候,傅莹就曾公开批评日本的军国主义。傅莹是安倍一个强大的对手。

该媒体称,从一开始不情愿参与到现在如此积极主动,可以看出中国正绕过现有秩序造成的约束,“更加自由地为自己的野心寻找操作空间”。

香格里拉对话会正式名称为亚洲安全峰会,是由总部设在伦敦的智囊机构——国际战略研究所主办的多边论坛,因其每年在新加坡的香格里拉酒店举办而得名,近年来已成为亚太各国防务高官和学者讨论区域安全议题的重要平台。

(观察者网综合中国网、大公网等消息)

回應 回應給此人 推薦文章 列印 加入我的文摘
引用網址:https://city.udn.com/forum/trackback.jsp?no=53732&aid=5105974
頁/共7頁 回應文章第一頁 回應文章上一頁 回應文章下一頁 回應文章最後一頁