兼顧交往與嚇阻的大陸政策（林中斌）

2010年02月22日蘋果日報

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過去一年，中國大陸有數項意外的發展，是我兩岸及國防政策無法忽略的。

一、經濟躍登世界第二大，環保大國崛起。○八年底、○九年初，即使中國GDP成長下滑，北京仍然大方地用上百億美元對外上撒錢。質疑○九年GDP成長8.7％是多餘的，即使打折扣成6.5％，也是世界翹楚。更令人驚訝的是，○九年中國成為數項世界最大生產國：發電風車、太陽能面板、汽車，而汽車工業以綠能為特色。此外，中國已是世界造林面積最大國、高速鐵路最快國。

大國示好小國威嚇

二、軍力高姿態展現，超越台灣邁向國際。○九年4月中國首次海上大閱兵，有14國21軍艦參與。10月國慶大閱兵，武器種類繁多、全部國產。北京派軍艦往亞丁灣護航商船至今已有4批，軍艦戰力僅次於美軍，是中國大艦隊遠航之創舉。10月，第一顆探測火星的衛星升空。一○年1月，第三顆北斗導航衛星升空，中國成為繼美國GPS、俄國GLONAS之外第三個有自主衛星導航能力的國家。
三、交好印度日本，對越南強硬。○九年11月中國國防部長梁光烈訪日簽訂今年兩國將首度聯合軍演。12月中國國家副主席習近平訪日臨時求見天皇，東京破例通融。同年中國超越美國成為日本最大出口國，於是日本依賴中國更深。○九年6月中國印度建立總理熱線，邊境衝突停止。6月，中國在南海強制延長休漁期，不准越南捕魚，並以「漁政船」撞翻越南漁船，26越南漁夫落海。北京視鄰國大小而拿捏對策。
四、內政改革跡象萌芽，但更嚴控輿論。○九年9月中共在四中全會後宣布今後領導幹部須申報財產，這顯然是借鏡台灣多年的作法，也是內政改革的大突破。
10月底，北京宣布廢除「四分之一條款」，打破城鄉人大代表選舉的不公平。11月初，官方媒體《經濟參考報》指控國企五礦集團製造污染。○九年有17名省部級官員因貪腐而落馬，創改革開放30年以來最多的紀錄。今年1月及2月，兩批共黨元老，包括《人民日報》前社長胡績偉及中組部前副部長李銳，公開聲援被判刑的異議份子劉曉波。在內政外交豎立權威的胡錦濤似乎展現信心，啟動最困難的政治改革，但嚴防因變動引起的不穩定，反而加強控制網路和黨外言論。
總體看來，過去一年，中國大陸在經濟、軍事、外交上都展現突破性的成就，都是它在金融風暴衝擊下經營出來的，更屬難得。
尤其意外的是，北京已開始在盤根錯節內政弊病上啟動改革。這些發展若有人在○八年預言，一定被人認為瘋狂。

台灣社會足供參考

以上發展對中華民國之意義有四：一、我將來經濟之發展無法自外於彼岸。除了中國大陸之外，台灣要找誰？印度？日本？美國？歐盟？但是他們經濟發展也要找中國。
二、我過去政治發展之經驗，無論好壞，有提供彼岸參考之潛力。台灣經濟金融發展之經驗20年前已提供給大陸參考。未來，台灣政治發展之經驗也可提供參考，好的借用（如官員申報財產），壞的防範（如立院打架）。
三、我社會之優點可協助大陸社會及人民。台灣是小國，若持大國心態是很危險的。
台灣的強項不是軍事、國際政治，甚至經濟力也有限，而是社會。我們人民的素質、生活的細膩、言行的自由比大陸先進，足以良性催化彼岸社會，改善其人民生活。
四、我國防之目的在於，大陸尚未政治改革前，確保台灣做為大陸催化劑之安全。我們應在以上的大格局下，考慮國防軍購的危機。北京已領悟到「買台灣比打台灣便宜」。
我國防目的應為「戰略防守多層嚇阻」，而非發展攻擊三峽大壩之武力（蚊子叮象）和玉石俱焚的核武（美國嚴控）。

作者曾任陸委會副主委、國防部副部長，現為淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所教授

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/jamesreynolds/

有興趣的不妨仔細看看。

小弟認為西藏事件也很重要, 還有一個次要但有影響的--昂山素姬問題.

"西方"對東方的神秘特別有興趣, 特別同情. 尤其是西歐. 但對亞非拉國家, 達賴與昂山則很少人關心.

未來在相當一段時期內, 只要奧巴馬不啟動對歐保護主義, 由於美國形象轉好, 俄中的威脅性與負面性會更突出. 今年是西藏五十, 又是天安門二十, 加上經濟危機, 美中, 歐中會冷淡甚至緊張一段時間. 而中俄不無可能在伊核, 金正日, 加沙, 吉爾吉斯等問題對西方採行"不友好"立場.

會不會有1930年代初的氛圍? 國際關係進入以文明對立為基礎的硬力較量的軌道?

比較各國對中態度，歐洲國家法、義、德、西皆大幅惡化，可以支持Lukacs認為金融危機與Darfur是影響對中態度的重要因素。

迦納、奈及利亞、與中美洲對中態度則正面的多

While views of China were predominantly positive in 2008, they have eroded substantially so that views are now generally divided. On average, in 2008, 45 per cent had a positive view while33 per cent had a negative view. But now positive views have slipped six points to 39 per cent, while negative views have risen to 40 per cent. While in 2008 16 countries had a predominantly positive view and five a negative view, now 10 countries' views of China's influence are mainly positive, while in 10 they are mainly negative.

Negative views have grown most significantly in European countries over the past year, including France (70%, up from 46%), Italy (68%, up from 50%), Germany (69%, up from 59%), and Spain (54%, up from 32%), with corresponding drops in positive views. Positive attitudes among Britons have also dropped (39%, down from 48%) while 42 per cent now say China has a negative influence in the world, making attitudes in the United Kingdom divided.

Other countries that have seen views of China worsen considerably include Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, and Australia. Turkey has shown a dramatic decrease in positive views of China (18%, down from 30%) while negative views have increased (64%, up from 58%). A majority in the Philippines now sees China's influence as mainly negative (52%, up from 30%), while positive views have dropped also (39%, down from 48%). Egyptians have seen positive views of China drop 20 points (62%, down from 82%), though negative attitudes remain stable (11%). While Australians most commonly still see China as a positive influence, positive attitudes have decreased (47%, down from 60%), while negative attitudes have grown (37%, up from 28%).

Attitudes about China in the United States have remained somewhat stable. While a majority (52%) in the US continues to view China's influence as mainly negative, there has been little change in both positive and negative attitudes over the previous year.

Eight countries continue to show positive views of China's influence, including large majorities in Ghana (75%, up from 56%), Nigeria (72%), and Central America (62%). A majority in Chile has a favourable view (60%), while Mexicans lean positive (34% positive to 26% negative), as do Indians (30% positive to 24% negative). In Russia, attitudes have remained largely stable with most saying China has a positive influence rather than negative (45% positive to 18% negative).

此一多年民調, 中國首度逆轉為負大於正. 但國際負面觀感程度仍不如美國. 再者, 世界三強美俄中現在形象都不好. 舊帝國英, 德, 日是前三甲. 是全球形象最佳國家. 中方形像惡化原因:

1. 西藏事件
2. 達爾富問題
3. 奧運中若干不利因素被宣傳放大
4. 金融危機造成西方民眾的相對剝奪感並加深對華恐懼

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7873050.stm

Global attitudes towards Russia and China are worsening, a poll carried out for the BBC World Service suggests.

China's positive ratings fell six points over the year to 39%, while negative views of Russia jumped eight points to 42%, according to the survey.

The survey was taken after President Barack Obama's election, but 43% still felt the US impact was negative.

More than 13,000 people in 21 countries were interviewed for the poll, part of an annual survey of world opinion.

It was carried out by international pollster GlobeScan with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (Pipa) at the University of Maryland in the 10 weeks leading up to 1 February.

China and Russia

In last year's poll of the same countries, people leaned more towards saying China and Russia were having a positive influence on the world.

But views of China are now divided, with 40% rating it negatively compared with 39% who view it positively.

Our poll results suggest that China has much to learn about winning hearts and minds in the world," said GlobeScan chairman Doug Miller.

"It seems that a successful Olympic Games has not been enough to offset other concerns that people have," he added, referring to the summer games hosted by Beijing in August 2008.

The poll also suggests that substantially more people now have a negative view of Russia's influence - 42% negative versus 30% positive - and that was before the recent disruption in Russian gas supplies to Europe.

"As for Russia, the more it acts like the old Soviet Union, the less people outside its borders seem to like it," Mr Miller said.

The World Service poll has been canvassing opinions on the influence of countries since 2005.

Obama's challenge

The US, for the first time since 2005, has surpassed Russia in positive ratings, with an average of 40% compared with 35% last year.

But it is still rated negatively by 43% of those polled, down from 47% in the 2008 poll.

Views of the US have improved in six countries, but attitudes towards it in Russia and China have grown more negative, while most people in Europe show little change.

"Though BBC polls have shown that most people around the world are hopeful that Barack Obama will improve US relations with the world, it is clear that his election alone is not enough to turn the tide," said Steven Kull, director of Pipa.

"People are still looking to see if there are significant changes in US policies."

Germany once again fared best in the poll, with every country viewing it positively and 61% of people rating it favourably, up from 55% last year.

The UK also moved up seven points, with 58% of people rating it as having a positive influence.

As was the case last year, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea were rated most negatively.

The latest results are based on 13,575 responses in 21 countries around the world. The survey has a margin of error ranging from 2.4% to 4.4% depending upon the country, 19 times out of 20.

日本有普世性的一些文化產品，尤其是動畫，確實可說獨步全球。中國有什麼？赤壁？

如果只有先進的文化才具有擴散的動能，中國目前還不具備。

如果從獨特性來說，那麼人口多且流動性大、擴散的能力就大些；這個就幾乎等於GDP了。把寶來烏的全球發行也視作文化擴張，那麼赤壁也許也可以說是某種擴張。

這個報告最奇怪的，還是其看不出標準；怎麼西班牙這些還跑到日本前面去了？

http://world.people.com.cn/GB/57506/8690193.html

中新社北京一月十七日电 (记者周兆军)中国科学院中国现代化研究中心十七日在北京发布《中国现代化报告二00九——文化现代化研究》。报告依据二00五年世界各国的各项指标数据，认为中国的文化影响力指数在全世界排名第七，居于美国、德国、英国、法国、意大利、西班牙之后。

　　报告同时还指出，截至二00五年，中国的文化生活现代化指数位列世界第五十七位，文化竞争力指数居第二十四位。

　　中国现代化战略研究课题组组长、中科院中国现代化研究中心主任何传启说，文化影响力既是一个国家通过国际文化互动对国际环境施加的实际影响的大小，也是一个国家的国际影响力在文化领域的一种表现形式，它与国际文化互动的强度和国家参与程度有关，在一个程度上也可以作为国家“软实力”的一种衡量方法。

　　报告还指出，二十一世纪中国文化现代化的战略目标可以分为两个阶段目标。第一阶段目标是：在二0五0年前，文化生活现代化达到世界中等发达水平，全面完成第一次文化现代化，进入第二次文化现代化。第二阶段目标是：在二一00年前，文化生活现代化达到世界先进水平，全面完成第二次文化现代化。

　　何传启说，第一次现代化是指从农业时代向工业时代、农业经济向工业经济、农业社会向工业社会、农业文明向工业文明的转变过程和深刻变化，第二次现代化是指从工业时代向知识时代、工业经济向知识经济、工业社会向知识社会、工业文明向知识文明和生态文明的转变过程和深刻变化。目前世界上共有美国、瑞典、丹麦等二十九个国家处于第二次现代化阶段，中国处于第一次现代化阶段的成熟期。

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光領先日本這點就證明這份研究水分太多. 隨便在哪個發達國家作民調, 日本絕對領先中國30%以上. 就算到非洲與東南亞, 日本最少也和中國打平手.