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中國新戰略強化海權意識
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中國新戰略強化海權意識 .江迅

原載《亞洲週刊》二十卷二十三期(2006年6月11日)

隨著國家安全空間向海洋拓展,中國的海權意識迅速覺醒,人們對國家海上力量的強化開始關注,海權新戰略正在形成。

水下作戰是中國正在出現的海洋戰略的一個關鍵,近期中國在水下作戰的前沿取得重大進展。五月下旬,美國國防部公布的「二零零六年度中國軍事力量報告」說,「中國急需擴充軍力,這種勢頭已經改變了地區軍事平衡狀態,並引發對中國未來意圖的擔憂」,「中國戰略力量現代化的速度和規模令人吃驚」,「有跡象顯示,中國的考慮範圍更加廣泛,或許他們在擴充軍力之初就想到要應付除台灣之外的其他突發事件」,「中國官員還在討論是否修改中國的防禦原則」。美國已首次發現中國海軍建造出一種新型攻擊潛艇「元級潛艇」。儘管中國外交部指責美國的軍事報告是「繼續散布中國威脅論」,但中國海權意識的強化正成為一種新戰略。

中國海軍對大學生新兵要求身高符合標準,有氣質、形象好,引起了境外軍界的強烈關注。

指揮官須先訓後提

海軍近日還下達明確指令,全面推行作戰部隊指揮軍官「先訓後提,不訓不提」制度,軍官在晉升指揮職務前,必須經過軍事院校晉升班次的任職培訓。多位國防部官員和軍事學者,近日在不同場合紛紛發表講話,認為中國的軍事力量嚴重滯後,作為一個負責任的大國,中國需要建設一支與其國際地位相稱的軍事力量,中國正從傳統的陸權主義向海權主義轉型,中國未來的海權戰略要應對未來可能的挑戰。

中國海軍負責人五月說,海軍在二零零六年招募大學生入伍時,對新兵的身高和形象氣質提出了明確的要求,不合格者一律淘汰。男女新兵都必須五官端正,身體和心理健康,男性身高至少要一點七米,女的則要達到一點六五米。海軍負責人認為,「海軍是國際軍種,代表國家執行出訪和接待外賓的任務,必須具有軍人的形象氣質,身高則是要適應軍事崗位的要求」。用這位負責人的話說,海軍將嚴格執行與組織見面、與檔案見面和與個人見面的「三見面」選拔程序,新兵入伍後仍須接受審查和覆查,對於「思想不堅定、形象氣質差、體格不合格的學生,一律淘汰」。中國海軍近年來積極擴大與各國海軍的交流,曾和俄羅斯、英國、印度和法國海軍舉行聯合演習,遠洋出訪,提高對新兵的要求,顯然是要為中國海軍建立好形象。

海軍事故反思

二零零三年四月,中國海軍在一次意外事故中失去了一艘明級潛艇上的所有艇員。二零零六年四月三日的北京《解放軍報》,披露了中國潛艇部隊曾經發生多起事故,某潛艇一處高壓氣管出現問題﹔某型潛艇下水後,雷達屏幕上總是出現盲點和亂碼﹔某潛艇下潛了很長時間,但深度指示針依然顯示為「零」等等。海軍事故不斷反映了治軍問題。

專門負責研究中俄安全政策的美國海軍戰爭學院戰略研究部副教授萊爾.戈爾登斯特恩博士等人,從美國海軍的視角研究認為,中國潛艇部隊已經擺脫了艱難時期,正快步走向成熟。東亞沿海海上力量的平衡正在隨著中國的新戰略而發生改變。目前中國對第二代核潛艇進行海試,連續生產國產宋級潛艇,從俄羅斯購進八艘基洛級柴油動力潛艇,這些都印證中國水下作戰的部署取得進展。水下作戰是中國正在出現的海洋戰略的一個關鍵性因素,而美國潛艇部隊必須對中國這位潛在競爭對手有更多的了解。據美國國防與情報官員的說法,中國海軍已建造一種新型攻擊潛艇,而美國的情報機構事先並不知道中國在製造這樣的潛艇。由於是首次發現,美國軍方已將其列為元級潛艇。

軍官在晉升指揮職務前,均應經過軍事院校晉升班次的任職培訓,未經培訓的軍官,不得提升進作戰部隊營級以上領導班子。據海軍政治部披露,海軍指揮軍官培養將按照初級指揮員、中級指揮員、高級指揮員三個培訓等級進行,完成這三個等級分別要經過初級指揮、艦艇部門指揮、單兵種戰術指揮、多兵種戰術指揮、合同戰術指揮、戰役指揮、聯合戰役指揮等七階段的培訓。參加逐級班次培訓的官員應從後備幹部中遴選,具備大學本科以上學歷。在確定調學對象時,將採取測評、考試、答辯等方式考核,優中選優,並提出畢業後使用意見,未經考核或考核不合格的不得送學。參加逐級培訓學員實行全程考核、全程淘汰。

據中國國防部官員透露,中國海軍艦艇編隊同越南人民軍海軍艦艇編隊,於四月二十七日開始在北部灣海域舉行首次聯合巡邏,維護北部灣海域的秩序和穩定。這是中國海軍首次與外國海軍舉行聯合巡邏。來自海軍的種種跡象表明,中國海權新戰略正在形成。軍事科學院戰爭理論和戰略研究部研究員陳舟多次參加中國國防白皮書起草,著有《現代局部戰爭理論研究》、《美國的安全戰略與東亞》等著作。他表示,中國堅持和平發展,但絕不是和平理想主義。二零零六年五月初,他在一次談話時說﹕「我們反對在國際事務中搞實力政策,但我們自己必須有實力。對奉行獨立自主外交政策、安全環境又非常複雜的中國而言,擁有一支與國家地位相稱、同國家發展利益相適應的軍事力量至關重要。」他認為,提高維護國家利益的戰略能力是中國軍隊當前最緊迫任務。

中國加強大戰略研究

國防大學戰略研究所所長、海軍少將楊毅五月十五日在北京的一次講話中指出,發展為擁有適當的軍事力量,是任何主權國家維護國家安全和保障國家發展利益的正當權利。富國不意味著稱霸,強兵不等同黷武。中國走和平發展道路必須堅持辯證戰略思維。楊毅曾於一九九五年至二零零零年擔任中國駐美海軍武官,回國後任國防大學戰略研究所所長。他曾主持完成《中國二十一世紀國家安全利益目標和安全政策構想》、《增強國家戰略能力建設》等國家和軍隊重大課題。

楊毅認為,對中國而言,要真正實現和平發展,就必須面對和解決中國國家安全和國家發展戰略中的兩大突出矛盾﹕一是迅速發展的國家利益和相對落後的保衛手段之間的矛盾﹔二是維護國家利益的迫切性與外部制約因素之間的矛盾。中國的經濟規模在不斷擴大,海外利益在迅速發展,但中國的影響力尚不能滿足維護國家利益的需要,也還需增強主動影響和塑造重大事態進程的戰略主導權。尤其值得重視的是,與維護中國利益的政治、外交、文化等手段相比,中國的軍事力量嚴重滯後。作為一個負責任的大國,中國需要建設一支與其國際地位相稱的軍事力量。

二零零六年國防預算二千八百三十八億元人民幣(約三百五十五億美元),軍費比上年增加百分之十四點七。國外有人曾提出﹕既然選擇了和平發展的道路,中國為何還逐年增加國防費﹖楊毅認為,一個國家軍事力量的強弱,並不能成為它構成威脅與否的標準,關鍵是擁有什麼樣的戰略意圖,如何使用軍事力量。中國要實現「硬實力」和「軟實力」的綜合協調發展,中國還必須理直氣壯地佔領「富國強兵」的道義高地,把中國軍隊建設成為與中國地位相稱、與中國發展利益相適應的軍事力量。

不惜代價保東海權益

無實力而乞和平,則和平危﹔有實力去保和平,則和平存。為應對世界和平與發展面臨的共同威脅和挑戰,中國必須把軍隊建設成為與中國地位相稱、與中國發展利益相適應的軍事力量。中國國家海洋局局長孫志輝四月二十八日在中國科學院作了《關於海洋的戰略地位與中國海洋面臨的幾個問題》的報告。關於中國與鄰國特別是日本的海域爭議,他表現出「不惜一切代價和犧牲」的強硬姿態,認為中國有相當水平的海上力量,在萬不得已時有能力、有決心在海上跟日本對抗

孫志輝的講話傳開,引起網友強烈反響,他們幾乎眾口一詞,振臂支持。有網友說﹕「我認為這也不能算是中國政府的態度,但預示了中國政府會是什麼態度。如果允許日本在春曉附近採油,那麼東海上我國將全面被動,包括喪失威信,政府信譽度下降,並引發東海戰略上的倒退,更有可能讓人誤會中間線的性質。」還有網友說﹕「國家利益高於一切。海洋局的表態很及時,也很到位。不管怎麼樣,百姓都支持咱們的政府。海洋戰略關乎中國是否成強國富民之道,不得不察。這回可不是退一步海闊天空了,而是退一步萬劫不復。」

北京大學出版社今春出版的三十萬字《戰略演講錄》(郭樹勇主編)收集了多位中國一流戰略學者的內部演講文章。他們圍繞著中國崛起過程中的一系列戰爭與戰略問題,展開深入剖析。此書出版後,中國軍方成批購買此書,也同樣引起了外國軍事部門的強烈興趣,紛紛委託不同渠道購買。書中,上海師範大學戰爭與文化研究所所長倪樂雄教授的《海權與中國的發展》一文,特別令人關注。倪樂雄認為,以小農經濟為基礎的中國陸權主義傳統,很難適應以海洋貿易經濟為基礎的西方霸權主義。中國如何完成從傳統的陸權主義向海權主義的轉型,中國未來的海權戰略如何應對未來可能的挑戰,是倪樂雄近來經常思考的問題。他認為,二十世紀九十年代末開始,中國社會海權意識迅速覺醒。當國家從「內向型經濟」轉向「外向型經濟」後,國家安全的空間便向海洋拓展,人們對國家海上力量也開始關注。

海外貿易擴大是動因

倪樂雄認為,「根據歷史經驗,發展強大的海上力量最根本的動力是海外貿易。國家經濟結構中,海外貿易成分不佔相當大的比重,也就不存在發展強大而持久的海上力量的基礎。二十世紀五十年代我們就立志﹕『一定要建立強大的海軍。』由於那時經濟不是外向型,因而海軍建設處於落後狀態。最近十幾年裡,我國的經濟結構中海外貿易比重越來越大,『海洋生命線』問題顯得越來越重要,建立強大海上力量的需要變得越來越現實,而『台獨』的政治因素則進一步刺激了這一需要」。

倪樂雄說,建設強大的海上力量同中國一貫奉行和平發展原則並不矛盾,如同發展核武器並非為了爭奪核霸權一樣。如果因此而引起霸權國家恐懼,甚至受到霸權國家「先發制人」的攻擊,那恰恰證明,要在這樣一個世界上生存,就一定要發展強大的海上力量﹔不能因為害怕霸權國家的猜忌,而放棄建設強大海上力量的努力。

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China conducts first test-flight of stealth plane
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Photo apparently showing prototype of Chinese-made stealth bomber Photos of the Chinese-made stealth aircraft began appearing on websites earlier this month
China has conducted the first test-flight of its J-20 stealth fighter, Chinese President Hu Jintao has confirmed to US Defence Secretary Robert Gates.

The confirmation came after images of the 15-minute flight in Chengdu appeared on several Chinese websites.

Mr Hu said that the flight had not been timed to coincide with Mr Gates' visit, the US defence secretary said.

The US is currently the only nation with a fully operational stealth plane.

But both Russia and China are known to be working on prototypes of stealth fighters, which are invisible to radar.

Mr Gates' three-day visit to Beijing comes amid US concern over the speed at which China's military is modernising and upgrading its technology.

"I asked President Hu about it directly, and he said that the test had absolutely nothing to do with my visit and had been a pre-planned test. And that's where we left it," Mr Gates was quoted as saying by Reuters news agency.

'Take some time'

There is also a video clip showing the stealth fighter taxi-ing, taking off and landing, accompanied by a trainer jet, with fans chatting and shouting "magnificent".

The spotters have been camped out near the fighter jet design institute in Chengdu, in south-west China. They have dubbed the prototype "Black Ribbon", meaning black 4th generation fighter.

They also say that Xi Jinping, China's Vice-President and Vice-Chairman of the Military Commission, visited the airfield on Saturday, presumably to witness a test flight that was aborted due to bad weather.

Leaked images of what was said to be China's J-20 fighter first appeared earlier this month during taxi tests at the Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute.

On Tuesday, the plane took off and flew for about 15 minutes, according to eyewitness accounts published on unofficial Chinese web portals.

A video clip of the flight was also posted on the web.

China says it expects the stealth plane to be operational some time between 2017 and 2019.

But earlier this month the Pentagon played down concerns over the fighter.

"Developing a stealth capability with a prototype and then integrating that into a combat environment is going to take some time," said US director of naval intelligence Vice Admiral David Dorsett.

China's official military budget quadrupled between 1999 and 2009 as the country's economy grew. In 2010 it stood at $78bn (£50bn).

But the US has by far the largest defence budget in the world at just over $700bn.

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China Expands Naval Presence through Jeddah Port Call
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lukacs

China Expands Naval Presence through Jeddah Port Call

Publication: China Brief Volume: 10 Issue: 25
December 17, 2010 05:34 PM Age: 19 days
Category: China Brief, In a Fortnight, Military/Security, Foreign Policy, China and the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Home Page
 

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37292&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=70a403bdf6

Chinese Rear Admiral Wei Xueyi (L), Saudi Rear Admiral Abdullah Al-Sultan (C), and Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Yang Honglin (R)

China’s naval presence on the global stage is expanding. While counter-piracy and escort operations in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea have significantly contributed to the Chinese navy's growing profile, foreign port visits by its naval vessels to the Gulf region are emerging as an important element in Chinese naval strategy.  China’s overseas naval presence is an important measure of its great power status, and port visits are an effective means of projecting naval power. The Chinese Navy's growing naval activism was recently highlighted by an unprecedented visit by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) at Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia. On November 27, China's sixth naval escort flotilla arrived at the port of Jeddah. The port call was officially billed as a five-day "goodwill" visit and marks the first ever call to Saudi Arabia by Chinese naval vessels (Xinhua News Agency, November 28; Fmprc.gov.cn, November 29). In light of the apparent expansion of the diplomatic mission of the PLAN, a careful study of Chinese port visit activities may provide useful insights into Chinese foreign policy objectives.

The sixth naval escort flotilla just completed a five-month long escort mission in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Somalia. According to the official Xinhua News Agency, the flotilla, which is under the command of the chief of staff of the PLAN South Sea Fleet, Rear Admiral Wei Xueyi, included the Chinese Navy’s largest surface combatant, the amphibious dock landing ship Kunlunshan, missile destroyer Lanzhou, and supply ship Weishanhu (Xinhua News Agency, November 28). A reception that was reportedly organized on the deck of Kunlunshan was attended by Rear Admiral Abdullah Al-Sultan, the commander of the Saudi Navy's Western Fleet and other officers. Chinese Ambassador Yang Honglin, Consul General Wang Yong, Military Officer Zhang Zhuoyong, and hundreds of people from the business community were also in attendance (China Review News, November 28; Fmprc.gov.cn, November 29).

The Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Yang, hailed the sixth naval flotilla's port call as an important milestone in the two countries’ military exchanges that will benefit the deepening of their "strategic friendly relations" (China Review News, November 28).  Rear Admiral Abdullah Al-Sultan expressed hope that the visit will help advance the two countries' military exchanges and cooperation, and contribute to the comprehensive development of bilateral relations (China Review News, November 28). Indeed, the port visit will likely enhance cooperation between the Chinese and Saudi navies, promote mutual understanding, and further strengthen lines of communication between the two militaries.

The notable uptick in port calls made by the PLAN seems to reflect the Chinese renewed appreciation of the value of naval presence for its foreign policy implementation. For instance, the missile destroyer Guangzhou was sent through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean to conduct port calls in Egypt, Greece, Italy, and then later visited Burma (Myanmar) and Singapore earlier this year (PLA Daily, July 26). The Chinese Navy's increasing role as an instrument of state policy follows in line with President Hu Jintao's 'New Historic Missions,' which underscores the PLA's role in safeguarding Chinese interests overseas. Through extended port calls, the PLAN is demonstrating its capacity and capability to promote the nation’s global interests.

While the exact purpose of the Jeddah port visit is uncertain, the motives behind the visit appear both strategic and political-diplomatic. The rapid modernization of China’s naval forces coupled by its growing naval diplomacy illustrate the rise of China as a naval power with global ambitions. The first ever port call also occurred in the context of China's broader engagement with the Middle East region, and signals the deepening of relations between Beijing and Riyadh. To be sure, Saudi Arabia is now China's leading overseas oil supplier―oil import from Saudi Arabia in 2009 stood at 41,857,127 tons―and the current impasse over Iran offers a political backdrop for the visit (See "Hobson's Choice: China's Second Worst Option on Iran," China Brief, March 18). Furthermore, the protection of China's oil interests in Sudan may have also factored into the overall calculation.

In the final analysis, increasing Chinese port visits is not itself a military feat, but does indicate a willingness to commit the PLAN in promoting Beijing’s foreign policy initiatives. It is not simply a demonstration of “showing the flag.” While Beijing is eager to portray its military expansion as in the interest of global stability, conducting port visits is a useful tool that extends China’s naval presence and exhibits the country’s soft power. As China expands its naval presence on the international stage and projects naval power in new theaters, Chinese leaders appear to be taking careful steps to balance the use of hard and soft power.

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PLA's Growing Force Projection Capabilities
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PLA's Growing Force Projection Capabilities

Publication: China Brief Volume: 10 Issue: 25
December 17, 2010 05:39 PM Age: 19 days
Category: China Brief, Home Page, Military/Security, Foreign Policy

China’s assertiveness along its littoral—underscored by recent diplomatic disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea—has raised international concerns about how Beijing intends to project its growing military power.  While certainly worthy of attention, a narrow focus on Chinese activities along the periphery obscures a more profound trend, whereby the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is modernizing in ways that will allow it to project forces farther beyond its borders.  In the wake of President Hu Jintao’s promulgation of the “historic missions of the armed forces in the new period in the new century” (xin shiji xin jieduan wojun lishi shiming) or “new historic missions” for the PLA in 2004, China has engaged in a variety of missions abroad, including counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, disaster relief in Haiti, and non-combatant evacuation operations in the Kyrgyzstan. Indeed, Beijing has invested resources in a number of platforms—such as large amphibious ships, long-range transport aircraft, at-sea replenishment vessels, and hospital ships—that cannot be explained in the context of preparing for a Taiwan conflict.  Meanwhile, the PLA has begun training and equipping for a wider range of activities, some of which have already been demonstrated on the international stage. These types of activities are likely harbingers of Chinese force projection over the next few decades [1].

Force Projection Activities to Date

Non-combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO): As Beijing’s foreign interests and holdings continue to grow, its citizens are increasingly living abroad to manage and engage in a variety of business, manufacturing, energy, and mineral extraction activities.  This trend increases the likelihood that foreign disasters, either natural or manmade, could affect Chinese citizens overseas. In the wake of ethnic unrest in southern Kyrgyzstan this past June, China evacuated nearly 1,300 nationals using a total of nine chartered flights (BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific, June 17). Similar small-scale Chinese non-combatant evacuation operations have also occurred in Haiti (2010) and the Solomon Islands (2006).

Peacekeeping Operations (PKO): China’s first foray into United Nations peacekeeping operations occurred in 1989, when Beijing sent 20 election observers to Namibia in support of UNTAG [2].  In subsequent years, the number of Chinese deployed at any one time has swelled to over 2,000 peacekeepers [3].  During this period, Chinese personnel have also participated in a wider range of activities well beyond their original observer duties, including peacekeeping and civil policing, as well as providing engineering, transport, and medical services.  Today, Chinese peacekeeping personnel can be found in Cote D’Ivoire (UNOCI), Lebanon (UNIFIL), Liberia (UNMIL), Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC), Sudan (UNAMID & UNAMIS), Timor-Leste (UNMIT), and Western Sahara (MINURSO).  Participation in UN missions provides the PLA with a number of benefits such as training in a multinational context, experience in conducting military operations other than war (MOOTW), and operational knowledge of different political, ethnic, and geographic environments [4].

Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response (HA/DR): China has contributed to at least 10 HA/DR missions since 2002 [5].  These include taking an active role in responding to Cyclone Nargis in Burma in 2007 and sending a 60-person search and rescue team to Haiti in January 2010.  Meanwhile, the recent seventh revision of the PLA’s Outline of Military Training and Evaluation (OMTE), which delineates specific training requirements, underscored the importance of humanitarian assistance/disaster response.  Both the recently built Anwei-class hospital ships and multipurpose large amphibious ships (of which one was recently added to the fleet) will contribute to the deployment of emergency response personnel overseas [6].

Sea-lines of Communication (SLOC) Protection: In December 2008, days after Chinese sailors were rescued from a pirate attack by Malaysian naval forces, the PLAN dispatched a flotilla of three ships.  This original flotilla consisted of two destroyers, an at sea replenishment ship, included helicopters and approximately 70 naval special forces, and sailed over 4,600 nm to the Gulf of Aden [7].  Now two years later, China has deployed its seventh flotilla and has maintained a continuous presence in the Gulf.  Two Fuchi-class at-sea replenishment ships have alternated duties refueling a pair of deployed PLAN surface ships (a combination of various destroyers, frigates, and recently a landing platform dock), as well as re-stocking them with drinking water and food.  The at-sea replenishment ships have made extensive use of local ports to re-supply (See “The Chinese Navy’s Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean,” China Brief, July 22).

Current and Future Capabilities

As the PLA’s force projection capabilities continue to improve over time, China will have the means to participate in a wider range of operations outside of its borders, to potentially include counterinsurgency, foreign internal defense, and even forcible entry operations.  Considered below are five categories of key platforms that will be crucial to China’s future force projection capabilities: transport aircraft, aerial refueling, large amphibious ships, aircraft carriers, and satellites.  The PLA will undoubtedly have to develop associated doctrine as well as tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) to effectively employ these platforms, but the actual development of the platforms is an important and necessary ingredient for force projection.

Transport aircraft: Transport aircraft are the quickest means to move troops and most materiel long distances and to send forces far inland, often necessary when infrastructure such as road and rail are lacking. Provided a friendly airfield (or at least permissive skies for airborne insertion or drop), transport aircraft are essential arrows in the quiver of force projection as they can deliver mission critical materiel to overseas units in hours or days, rather than weeks typically required by cargo ships. While only the United States and Russia possess numbers of transport aircraft ranging in the hundreds, China currently has a small but not insignificant fleet of approximately 47 large and medium transport aircraft (the Il-76M and Y-8, respectively) [8].  Augmenting China’s military airlift capability is a growing civil aviation fleet that consists of two dozen large transport aircraft and is composed of Boeing 747F, McDonnell Douglas MD-11F, and Airbus A-300F aircraft [9].

Aerial refueling: Aerial refueling presents another vital component for the projection of military force, without which many expeditionary capabilities are severely hampered.  China currently possesses approximately 13 aerial refueling aircraft that can deliver slightly over 35 percent of France’s total refueling capacity at a range of approximately 1,000 nm [10].  Cognizant of the need to improve capabilities in this realm, China has sought to purchase tankers abroad, as well as indigenously produce more aircraft capable of carrying out this task (Jane's Intelligence Review, June 12, 2008).  Currently, the indigenously produced H-6U (converted from the B-6 medium bomber) is only capable of refueling PLA Air Force and Navy J-8s and J-10s through a probe-and-drogue system. China recently demonstrated its aerial refueling capability in support of simulated long-range operations this past September during the Peace Mission 2010 multilateral exercise in Kazakhstan (See “China Showcases Expeditionary Military Power in Peace Mission 2010,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, September 28).

Large amphibious ships: More than any other platform, large amphibious ships arguably most embody force projection because they allow a country to place forces ashore almost anywhere.  Based on sealift capability alone, China can currently transport a theoretical maximum of nearly 12,000 PLAN marines and PLA amphibious infantry for relatively short distances to potential hot spots in the East and South China Seas with its fleet of 50+ medium and tank landing ships (LSM and LST, respectively) [11].

With the recent acquisition of a landing platform dock (LPD), Beijing has begun to develop amphibious capabilities that can achieve global reach.  As a result of its single Type-071 LPD, an amphibious battalion of up to 800 PLAN marines can potentially be placed on nearly any undefended or lightly defended shore in the world without the need to secure basing rights or over-flight permission (Globalsecurity.org).  This ability of the Type-071 LPD to operate worldwide was demonstrated recently in the aforementioned SLOC protection operations in the Gulf of Aden and could also be used to support other types of operations in the future such as an out of area HA/DR or NEO.

Though its goals are currently unknown, China is likely to develop more large amphibious ships in the future.  For example, the theoretical acquisition of an additional two Type-071 LPD would provide enough sealift for a Marine Expeditionary Unit-sized force—a unit that is arguably the United States’ most flexible tool for force projection. However, to achieve true MEU-like ability China would still need to develop or acquire a helicopter carrier such as a landing helicopter assault (LHA) or landing helicopter dock (LHD) to provide air support.

Aircraft carriers: China is by some accounts currently pressing ahead with refurbishing the Soviet-built, Ukrainian-supplied carrier Varyag. Others have suggested that Beijing is seeking to build an indigenous carrier from scratch (See “Is the PLA Navy Making Plans for a Three Carrier Battle Group?”, China Brief, January 4, 2008; “China’s ‘Charm Offensive’ Loses Momentum in Southeast Asia [Part I],” China Brief, April 29). Further speculation exists over whether the PLAN will purchase Russian built aircraft such as the Su-33 or develop an aircraft carrier capable version of the J-10, tentatively named the J-15 [12].  A future Chinese aircraft carrier would provide defensive air cover and a platform for strike aircraft, a capability that would vastly enhance force projection capabilities and flexibility, but is certainly not the only means to prosecute such operations.

Satellites: China is developing satellites for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and navigation purposes.  The Jianbing/Haiyang series of electro-optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) reconnaissance satellites has grown over the past decade and is currently supplemented by one Tianlian data relay satellite [13].  China is expected to eventually develop a future network of six data relay satellites that will provide near real-time feeds of its various ISR satellites [14]. Not willing to fully rely on unimpeded access to the U.S. maintained GPS network in the future (a system that Washington can turn off), China sees its Beidou series of satellites as an important means of navigation.  That said Beijing has yet to expand the system for extra-regional use [15].

Conclusion

Although still relatively nascent compared to France or the United Kingdom, two countries that regularly send forces abroad, Chinese force projection capabilities are growing and expanding under the broad rubric of President Hu’s “new historic missions.”  The development witnessed in these growing operational capabilities along with an expanded strategic-level focus potentially is a double-edged sword, likely to have profound implications for both the U.S.-Sino relationship and international politics more broadly.

On the one hand, Washington’s call for China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system implies burden sharing in the maintenance of international peace and security.  In this regard, a more active and capable PLA will enable China to better contribute to multilateral efforts seeking to provide global public goods.  The ability to identify and capitalize upon opportunities for military-to-military collaboration will be a crucial task for U.S. policymakers. On the other, even in the defense of the global commons—the policing of sea-lanes, for instance—Chinese force projection capabilities have the potential to erode or displace American leadership.  A more active PLA also increases the possibility of encountering U.S. forces abroad or, even possibly, of the PLA operating at cross-purposes to American interests.  Finally, future expeditionary activities, even of a non-combat nature, will further improve the war-fighting capabilities of the PLA, a point clearly not lost on Chinese strategists.  

Notes:

1. I define Chinese force projection capability as the ability of the PLA to send military equipment and personnel from Mainland China to engage in overseas military operations across the full spectrum of combat and non-combat missions.
2. Bates Gill and Chin-Hao Huang, “China’s Expanding Role in Peacekeeping,” SIPRI Policy Paper, No. 25, November 2009: 4-5.
3. As of February 28, 2010 China was the 14th largest contributor of currently deployed peacekeepers, ahead of the United States, France, or the United Kingdom. “Factsheet: United Nations Peacekeeping,” United Nations, accessed: December 13, 2010, www.un.org/en/events/peacekeepersday/2010/factsheet.pdf.
4. Bates Gill and Chin-Hao Huang, “China’s Expanding Role in Peacekeeping,” SIPRI Policy Paper, No. 25, November 2009: 15-16.
5. Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009, Washington, D.C.: Office of the Secretary of Defense: 56.
6. The OMTE is “the authoritative guide to how the PLA organizes, implements, and evaluates training.” Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009, Washington, D.C.: Office of the Secretary of Defense: 51; Jane’s Information Group, “Anwei (Type 920) class,” Jane’s Fighting Ships, February 2010 and Jane’s Information Group, “Procurement, China,” Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment, April 2009.  
7. China did not undertake this operation lightly. Beijing acted only after the passage of four related United Nations Security Council resolutions, an invitation from the Somali Prime Minister to join the operation, and public statements testing the waters of international opinion by senior PLA officials. Peter Kammerer, "Shot Across the Bow," South China Morning Post, January 9, 2009: 13.
8. The Military Balance 2010, London: IISS, 2010: 402-404; Jane’s Information Group; “Infrastructure, China,” Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment, January 2010; Jane’s Information Group; “Air Force, China,” Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment, August 3, 2010.
9.  “Infrastructure, China,” Jane’s Sentinel Security Assessment, January 2010 and “Jade Cargo International – Details and Fleet history,” Planespotters.net, accessed: December 15, 2010, www.planespotters.net/airline/jade-cargo-international.
10. It is also important to note that the B-6 has a much more limited range than France’s aerial tankers which have refueling reach well beyond 1,000 nm. These estimates are approximate and are based on simple modeling using data provided by The Military Balance 2010, London: IISS, 2010: 129; Jane’s Information Group, “XAC H-6”,” Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft, May 25, 2010; Air Force Pamphlet 10-1403: Air Mobility Planning Factors, Secretary of the Air Force, Washington, DC: U.S. Air Force, December 18, 2003.
11. These numbers exclude the Yulian-class (a ship that is limited to coastal use) and are derived from data from The Military Balance 2010, London: IISS, 2010; 402; Jane’s Information Group, “Sea Lift,” Jane’s Amphibious and Special Forces, August 27, 2009; and “Type 079 (Yulian Class) Medium Landing Ship,” Sinodefence.com, accessed: December 14, 2010, www.sinodefence.com/navy/amphibious/type079_yulian.asp.   
12. Roy Kamphausen, David Lai, and Andrew Scobell, eds., Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other Than Taiwan, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2009: 371.
13. Kim Nodskov, The Long March of Power: The New Historic Missions of the People’s Liberation Army, Copenhagen: Royal Danish Defence College Publishing House, 2009: 246-258.
14. Ibid., 248.
15. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010, Washington, D.C.: Office of the Secretary of Defense: 36.

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學俄國?學美國?
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崑崙山類似美國的,殲二十有自己特色,共軍發展速度出人意表,那麼瓦良格之後,中國航母還是那個樣子嗎?我有些懷疑。

黃蜂級兩棲攻擊艦,或許是值得觀察的學習對象。四萬噸。

真正的大型航母,得另外設計了。

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新華社公開為中共造航母正當性辯護
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外媒议论中国航母 西方应有开阔胸襟

http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-01/04/c_12944742.htm

近日,有关中国将造航母的报道,再一次见诸于外国媒体。其内容不外乎猜测中国到底什么时候会建成航母,或者中国建航母会给其他国家带来什么影响等,而且依然在字里行间表达了某种“担忧”。从外媒有关中国造航母的报道越来越集中于中国建造航母本身,而不是渲染所谓“中国军力威胁”这一点来看,外国媒体多年来有关“中国造航母就是军力威胁”的炒作,至今已没有多大市场,再炒冷饭,已经没有什么人理睬。

  外媒猜测:千奇百怪

  美国媒体:此方面报道最积极,认为解放军的舰载机歼-15早在2009年就已完全准备停当,又认为解放军的航母技术将借鉴英国。

  日本媒体:一方面宣称美日联合演习就是为针对中国航母,又扬言自己已研制了“专门克制中国航母”的反舰导弹。

  韩国媒体:在近日美国“里根”号航母开赴亚太后,绘声绘色地描绘出一幅“解放军攻击美国航母”的效果图。在韩国《中央日报》绘制的该攻击图中,解放军先用无人侦察机确定美国航母的位置,随后地对舰导弹、驱逐舰、潜艇、战斗机等从海陆空向美航母编队攻击,将其击沉。报道还专门指出,不久前展出的中国C-602、C-705和C-802A三种导弹如果同时发射,将扰乱美航母的防御网,只要有一枚导弹命中,就可以给美航母致命打击。

  印度媒体:未雨绸缪地分析起“中国航母挺进印度洋的弱点”。

  加拿大媒体:称中国已经聘请了乌克兰专家在帮忙造航母。

中国海军的“航母之梦”历史悠久。早在抗战时期,当时的海军司令陈绍宽就曾设想要建20艘航母,这让所有人目瞪口呆。如今,中国海军拥有官兵20多万、水面舰艇500多艘,然而让军事爱好者叹息的是,在大型舰艇方面总不“过瘾”。这其中,对航母的期盼尤其突出。

  当今,航母已然是世界强国的“名片”。不仅美国把航母集群四处派遣,英国在马岛战争动用了航母编队,就连印度也费尽心力自己造航母。这种情况下,堂堂中国海军要是没有满载舰载机的航母,何以保卫海疆?

  中国对航母的呼唤,还有很现实的国防意义。我国领海面积广阔,要保卫自己的领海,就需要在南沙等地投入兵力。然而,南沙最远处距离我国最南方的军用机场1500公里,而我空军的主力战机歼-8,其有效作战半径只有800公里。如果能有航母组成编队,为作战飞机提供移动的中继站,则我军可能投放到南沙的综合实力将大增。因此改革开放以来,中国民间关于“造航母”的传言几乎年年都有。前苏联解体后,中国先后购买了前苏军退役航母明斯克号、基辅号用于旅游参观。后来,前苏联尚未完工的瓦良格号又被购买并进行翻修,成为一艘“模型实体舰”。在2007年香港军备模型展上,就有仿造瓦良格号的“中国航空母舰”模型亮相。

  正如去年3月中国海军副政委邬华扬表示的那样,中国已具备自主建造航母的经济与技术能力。至于到底造不造,什么时候造,还得根据具体条件和需要。造一艘航母耗资巨大,比如美军一艘大型航母,建造费用约40亿美元,而每年的维护费就达十多亿美元。

  总之,如果下决心造航母,就要建立一个真正有战斗力的海外编队,而不是仅仅拼凑几艘船、几架飞机做样子。在这一步棋上,中国军方表现得谨慎、稳健。实际上,就算中国真的建造了自己的航母,也不可能拿航母编队去和谁硬拼。面对全球霸权挑战时,保家卫国主要还是依托于岸基导弹和潜艇

西方应有胸襟 接纳中国航母

  作为在“二战”时就已大面积使用的舰艇,航母早已不是什么新鲜军事武器。在安理会5个常任理事国当中,只有中国没有航母;在金砖四国当中,巴西、印度、俄罗斯都有航空母舰,惟独中国没有;而在亚洲地区,泰国都有航母,但比泰国规模大得多的中国却没有。

  与日本和德国作为法西斯战败国不敢建造航母不同,中国是第二次世界大战的战胜国,也是联合国的创建者之一,因此中国没有航母,本应该是一件让人奇怪的事情。但是在一些西方媒体的炒作和歪曲下,一些人一度把中国拥有航母与“中国军事威胁论”搅和在一起,以至于形成了一个奇怪的西方舆论氛围。

  现在是西方某些国家改变这种不正常的舆论和心态的时候了。因为,不仅几千年来的历史证明,中国有着传播和平、保障和平的传统,而且“二战”以来的世界历史和中国历史也证明,中国是一个爱好和平的国家。中国的和平诚意,体现在解决与周边国家的各种领土纠纷中:中国一贯主张以和平的方式解决争端。

  当前,中国的海外贸易也已经成为世界上最重要的财富创造和交流通道。因此,中国有责任也有义务,为保障这种造福于各国的财富创造和交流行为提供更好的安全保障。这一点,从中国舰艇参与亚丁湾打击海盗的行动上就可见一斑。

  其实,绝大多数国家和民众是欢迎中国为世界和平与发展承担更多责任的,他们早已有了接纳中国建造航母的期待。因此,我们从未见过某个非洲国家、拉美国家公开非议中国建造航母。而一些别有用心的西方势力,也应该顺应潮流,开阔自己狭隘的胸襟。

  关注 美军三航母 会师于亚太

  近日,大洋上惊涛四起,美国核动力航母“里根”号驶往西太平洋,加上刚赶到关岛的“卡尔·文森”号和在日本部署的“华盛顿”号,届时美军三个航母战斗群将在亚太会师。这使得原本就剑拔弩张的朝鲜半岛局势更加阴云密布。

  据说按照美军的习惯,在发生危机的地区,一艘航母表示警告,两艘航母表示严重警告,三艘航母则有了战争准备的味道。当前朝核问题正是紧锣密鼓的时候,“山姆大叔”把航母派来,炫耀武力的意图十分明显。

  我外交部发言人姜瑜上月28日在回答记者提问时表示,“我们希望有关国家采取负责任的态度,多做有利于增进地区国家间互信、有利于维护本地区和平稳定的事,而不是相反。”

我国周边地区 海军力量扫描

  日本:海上自卫队拥有4万多人,水面舰艇100多艘,其中5000吨以上大型舰艇近30艘、潜艇20多艘。其装备先进、人员训练素质高、出航经验丰富。值得一提的是,日本1.4万吨级的“日向”号、“伊势”号直升机驱逐舰已经下水,这两艘舰艇完全可能在短期内被改装成轻型航空母舰。

  印度:海军兵力约6万人,拥有水面舰艇一百多艘,其中驱逐舰和护卫舰约20艘,潜艇十多艘。印度从英国购买了一艘二战末期的航母,排水量为2万多吨。此外向俄罗斯购买的一艘4万吨级航母正在改建中,印度还计划自建一艘中型航母。

  越南:海军约4万余人,水面舰艇一百多艘,除了几艘护卫舰超过千吨,其余都是几百吨到几十吨的小艇,还有几艘潜艇。

  菲律宾:海军兵力约3万人,水面舰艇百余艘,其中护卫舰1艘,轻型护卫舰13艘,其余都是小艇。

  韩国:海军约6万人,水面舰艇一百多艘,其中驱逐舰、护卫舰约40艘,装备较为精良。

  朝鲜:海军约4万余人,拥有护卫舰3艘,轻型护卫舰4艘,还有各式小艇数百艘和潜艇约80艘,是一支神秘之师。

  俄罗斯:前苏联曾拥有庞大海军,如今虽实力严重下降,但“虎威”仍在。俄罗斯太平洋舰队拥有潜艇二十多艘(其中核潜艇近20艘),巡洋舰和重型驱逐舰10艘左右,依然是一支不可忽视的力量。

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胡錦濤收官之作: 2011航空母艦下水
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中國航母戰鬥群 至少建兩個

【世界日報╱大陸新聞組北京24日電】 2010.12.24 09:27 pm

作為2012年任滿前的收官之作,兼任中共中央軍委主席的中共中央總書記胡錦濤,可能在明年向世界公布中國的第一艘航空母艦服役。路透23日指出,中國估計將至少建造兩個航母戰鬥群。
報導說,解放軍海軍每年購買武器的開支估計為數十億美元,未來很可能繼續增長。建造一艘類似俄羅斯「庫茨涅佐夫級」的6萬噸級中型常規動力航母,成本估計超過20億美元。航母需要配備艦載飛機和護航艦艇,包括艦載戰鬥機、預警機、反潛直升機、搜救直升機、導彈驅逐艦、護衛艦和補給艦等。
一個航母戰鬥群的總體成本,估計為100億美元左右,建造周期近10年。兩個航母戰鬥群的訓練、維護、維修、燃料開支,估計為航母建造費用的10%,即共4億美元左右。
報導指出,中國航母一旦公開亮相,將激發中國民眾的民族自豪感,提升中國的國際地位。
報導說,中共已故領導人毛澤東曾在1958年提出要建設「公海上的鐵路」,即由航空母艦護航的遠洋商船艦隊。但由於資金不足,這一計畫未能實施。鄧小平就任最高領導人後,削減了國防預算,以集中力量發展經濟。曾任海軍司令員、中央軍委副主席、中共中央政治局常委的劉華清上將,在1982至1997年間主持了發展航母計畫。但接替鄧小平擔任最高領導人的江澤民否決了航母計畫,認為這將刺激美國和中國的鄰國。江澤民的繼任者胡錦濤則對航母計畫給予支持。
報導說,中國遠洋航運規模不斷擴大,因為通過麻六甲海峽和其他關鍵海域的商船和油船隊需要保護。中國海軍艦隊已在亞丁灣參加國際反海盜護航行動。中國不斷擴大的海外投資和遍布全球的僑民需要保護,中國富庶的沿海地區、資源豐富的領海、專屬經濟區,以及南沙群島等與其他國家存在爭議的地區,也需要保護。此外,中國航母也可參加人道救援或救災行動。

【2010/12/24 世界日報】
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中国八大海外军事基地:真真假假搞不清楚....
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中国八大海外军事基地

http://qyt433.home.news.cn/blog/a/0101003E1CD40B0CE6EF7C7B.html

一、缅甸科科群岛


科科群岛是缅甸在孟加拉湾的一个岛群,位于东经93.4度,北纬14度,是印度安达曼-尼科巴群岛的北延。其主要包括大科科及小科科等岛,总面积约为30平方公里,其中大科科岛占去大半。该岛也北距中国只有1200公里,东南距马六甲海峡只有数百公里,战略地位十分重要。


缅甸政府将其中17个岛屿租借给中国做海军基地和观测雷达卫星中心,监控印度洋态势,而科科群岛距离印度的底格里普尔(Diglipur)仅几公里远,底格里普尔距离印度安达曼-尼科巴群岛首府布莱尔港只有185公里。中国向缅甸提供无息贷款和帮助缅甸清剿反政府武装。科科群岛对于中国强化对马六甲海峡的控制有极大帮助,中国目前60%的能源补给来自中东,80%的石油进口经过马六甲海峡。中国军队在此建有长波导航电台,便于中国海军的潜艇进入印度洋。


二、巴基斯坦瓜达尔港


瓜达尔原本只是巴基斯坦西部俾路支省马克兰地区的一个非常不起眼的小渔村。距离伊朗边境只有72公里,距离全球石油供应的主要通道——霍尔木兹海峡大约400公里。紧扼从非洲、欧洲经红海、霍尔木兹海峡、波斯湾通往东亚、太平洋地区数条海上重要航线的咽喉,战略意义十分重要。巴基斯坦1964年就决定把瓜达尔建成港口。然而,直到2001年中国同意参与这个深水港的建设和开发,此项目才进入实施阶段。利用中亚与该港口相连的公路与铁路,中国有望开辟一条往新疆等西部地区输送能源的通道。在该处设立电子监听站,可以监视从霍尔木兹海峡到阿拉伯海之间的船行航行动态,以及美国位于印度洋上的迭戈加西亚军事基地。


三、孟加拉吉大港


吉大港是孟加拉最大海港和第二大城市,临孟加拉湾,人口约340万。是孟加拉的重要交通枢钮和工业中心。有28个码头,泊位吃水深6.4-8.5米。有现代化装卸设备。海轮可沿卡纳富利河入港,航道宽198-274米。中国在孟加拉吉大港建有安格达旭货柜港,并加强和孟加拉海事关系及商业关系。中国是孟加拉军队武器的主要提供者。


四、柬埔寨苦克莫岛


苦克莫岛隶属于柬埔寨,位于东经10度,北纬103度,2003年11月,中国与柬国签署军事协议,柬埔寨与中国合作兴建连接中国西南至柬国海港铁路。中国租借柬埔寨苦克莫岛兴建海军补给站和雷达基地。主要用于给船只补给及维修,但不会驻兵,只留技术人或顾问,平时由柬方管理,有紧急情况中方可以合作调用救助船只或提供信息。


五,所罗门群岛所属比卡齐克亚岛


所罗门群岛鲁斯群岛所属的比卡齐克亚岛,位于东经165.3度,南纬11.7度。是南太平洋的一个岛国,位于澳大利亚东北方,巴布亚新几内亚东侧,是英联邦成员之一。共有超过990个岛,陆地总面积共有28000平方公里。所罗门群岛的首都霍尼亚拉(Honiara),是第二次世界大战在太平洋的转折点所在地。中国在此建有卫星探测和气象基地,中国在附近海域探测到的深海锰矿资源属中国政府所有。


六、法属土阿莫土群岛


土阿莫土群岛位于太平洋中南部法属波利尼西亚东部岛群,西经144度,南纬18度,由80多个珊瑚环礁组成。陆地面积900平方公里。人口8540,常受飓风袭击。产磷灰石、椰子和珍珠等。1844年起被法国占领。中国在临近的波立尼西亚罗弗迪尔维尔岛建有观测中心,是前往南极考察的远洋轮往返徒中的补给站,虽然非主权所有,但是为中国所控制。


七、泰国宋卡中泰联合基地


泰国现有75个府和曼谷直辖市。宋卡府是泰国南部的一个府,人口约125万(2000年),面积约7394平方公里。宋卡中泰联合基地位于攀牙-宋卡府之间。


1990年,张狂的印尼海军悍然打击了泰国海军巡逻队。泰国当时最先进的战舰“腊达那克辛级”轻型护卫舰,1987年采购自美国满载排水960吨,根本不足以对抗印尼海军。随即1991年泰国主动与中国接触,秘密协商建造2艘F25T型战舰的协议。同时,中国在泰国攀牙,宋卡,分别“协助”泰国开发建设500公里港区。攀牙是泰国控制安达曼海的门户,地理位置优于苏门达腊。中国不惜巨资在这里兴建多处所谓“军事设备维持基地”,并且以“协助训练”泰国海军为名义公开进驻2个港口。借此,中国陆军势力进驻泰国,并因此从侧翼支援缅甸。广州军区派一个营400-500人的兵力常驻,装备有各式轻重武器。


1995年印尼采购美国战机,而泰国则以“维护领空安全”为名义,随即引进中国歼7PM“空中闪光”,引进12架“运-12”巡逻机,2架Y8DC反潜机。部署到泰国攀牙海空基地。该基地有海空勤务部队1630人,歼-7P战机24架,苏-27战机12架。


八,迪索布伦奥尔岛


位于东经148度,北纬19度的毛格群岛中,毛格群岛位于北马里亚纳群岛亚松森(东南36公里)和德帕哈罗斯(西北64公里),是由一个沉没的火山锥形成的三个小岛。三岛形成一个平均深度200米的泻湖,二战期间(1939至1945年)日本曾在此设有一个载人气象站。
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美國海軍不是澡盆海軍: 中國不可能相信美國意圖良善
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回到現實主義啊。

不靠相信意圖良善,相信彼此利益關聯,相信保證毀滅,相信槍桿子出霸權。

國強必霸。至少心理上,就不得不霸。

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中國海軍不再是澡盆海軍: 他國不可能相信中國意圖良善
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葉海林:中國不可能繼續維持「澡盆內的海軍」

http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1014/0/0/3/101400366.html?coluid=7&kindid=0&docid=101400366&mdate=0803001925

 

中評社北京83日電/此間國際先驅導報刊載作者葉海林的文章指出,《國際先驅導報》文章 將“喬治.華盛頓”號航母沒有進入黃海參加美韓軍事演習和希拉里.克林頓國務卿在越南河內宣稱“南中國海主權爭端是美國國家利益的一部分”聯繫起來的方式可能有兩種。一、美國人因為在航母去向問題上考慮了中國的“擔憂”而覺得面子上有些受傷,要在南中國海找補回來;二、中國出於穩定中美關係大局的考慮在對美外交的某個話題上採取了回旋姿態,從而導致中美兩國圍繞黃海的爭執已經告一段落,希拉里的河內講話其實是中美海上博弈新一回合的開始。

  不管美國的動作是黃海博弈的後手,還是南海爭奪的先手,兩者都預示著未來一段時間,中美在中國近海區域的矛盾集中爆發期已經到來——到來的時間比中美5月舉行戰略經濟對話時大多數人的預期還要早些。


  至少透過希拉里亞洲四國之行中美方在幾次國際會議的表態——阿富汗問題國際會議上的敷衍了事、韓美2+2會談上的閃爍其辭、東盟地區論壇外長會上的突然襲擊,人們大概可以得出結論說,中美安全關係當中,以西部反恐合作推動以及換取東部海上局勢穩定的時代已經過去了。當然,若是把台灣售武問題考慮進去,還可以爭辯說這個時代其實從未到來過。


  從今以後,美國是否會受制於中國的嚴正態度而在接下來的8次黃海軍演乃至更長期限內不派航母挑戰中國神經,是否會在海南島附近水域對中國海軍採取更加咄咄逼人的姿態,是否會像越南等少數東南亞國家期待的那樣調高在南中國海主權爭端問題上的調門,這一切不僅取決於美國的政策和政策實施,更取決於中國的應對手段和意志。

 

美國打算依托自己的海軍和外交優勢遏制中國海上力量的崛起,這一點早已無須贅言。中國理論上可能通過展示對美國乃至任何有關國家的善意以消除別人對我們的疑慮——在過去三十年裡我們一直是這樣做的,在中國只擁有一支“澡盆裡的海軍”的時候,讓別人相信我們的善意是相對容易的。但問題是,情況如今顯然已經發生了即使不是本質的也是關鍵的變化,更為重要的是,以中國當前乃至未來可能的“全球連結性”,我們能繼續承受只擁有澡盆海軍的政治、安全和經濟代價嗎?

  中國與任何國家未來的海上關係,只能放在中國海軍不斷發展而且不斷按照世界海軍強國的海上力量建設規律而發展的前提下考慮。


  這就是說,中國不可以也不可能因為其它國家的外交顧慮而放緩自身海上力量的發展過程,更不能“自廢武功”。在這一前提下,中國所能做的事情大體有三:


  中國應該有區別地對待周邊海上鄰國。儘管美國才是中國海上安全的首要考量因素,然而不能因此否定周邊海上鄰國可能產生的積極或消極作用。對於那些和中國沒有領海主權爭端,在中美之間採取更超然態度的國家,應該給予更多回饋。這種回饋既是外交成本,也是外交收益。而對於那些一心想要把第三方勢力引入他們和中國的海上爭端的國家,則必須公開、嚴厲地給予回擊。安撫他們不但不會讓這些國家相信中國的善意,反而使他們得出結論認為拉上某個孔武有力的“水霸”訛詐中國是有效的。

中國應該拒絕美國企圖將海上安全問題與中美關係任何美方關切的議題掛鈎的企圖。應該看到,以當前中美的海上實力對比——不論是海軍戰鬥力還是海洋安全外交話語權,中國都遠遠落在美國後面。美國在相當程度上掌握了中美海上事務的話題制定權。最直觀的例子就是美國只是“默許”韓國在美國航母是否進入黃海問題上大造輿論,就將之“培育”成了中美之間一個非常嚴肅的話題。而實際上美方連嘴皮子都不需要動一下。在這種實力對比下,中國若是想在海上安全博弈中獲得任何正收益,都幾乎不可避免地要在其它領域支付成本。這是實力對比導致的必然結果。因而,中國只能在現實主義邏輯下努力將海上安全博弈限制在海上,以避免產生連帶的附加後果,並且導致美國不斷在海上玩新花樣對中國進行訛詐。

  最後,也是最重要的,中國應該不遺餘力地發展一支現代化的、符合國際標準的海上力量。遏制美國的海上威脅,不能只靠近海防禦的某些“殺手鐧”,這類武器系統不是不管用,而是管不了大用。中國應該努力建設的是能夠產生對等威懾能力的海軍力量。陸軍有一種說法“最好的反坦克武器就是坦克本身”,這一邏輯對於海軍其實同樣是適用的。當然,發展這樣一支海上力量需要相當長的時間和相當艱巨的努力,更需要決心。

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英報告稱08年後中國軍艦數量超美顯示已崛起

http://www.chinareviewnews.com   2010-09-02 00:07:26  


  中評社北京9月2日電/環球網消息:據韓國《朝鮮日報》9月1日報道,英國《經濟學家》網絡版於上月31日援引國際戰略研究所(IISS)的報告報道說:“IISS最近制定區分戰艦和普通船舶的標準後,對世界主要國家的戰艦展開了調查,結果顯示,中國的戰艦數量超過美國,成為世界最大的戰艦擁有國。”

  報道稱,據IISS報告顯示,1971年至1996年擁有戰艦數量最多的國家是俄羅斯,1997年至2006年是美國,而2008年以後是中國。

  《經濟學家》報道說:“中國的戰艦數量超過美國是表明‘中國崛起’的另一個事例。”
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