|
|
中國即將執行第11個五年計划。中國的經濟轉型可說是世界歷史上最為可觀的，旨在改善生活素質，惠及几占世界人口四分之一的人民。五年計划是給經濟轉型持續運行打下框架。這樣的可持續發展和大規模的掃貧努力，是史無前例的。
中國長期的成功發展，部分原因是其獨特的眼光和腳踏實地的作風。《華盛頓共識》形成后，在其他發展中國家都不切實際地致力于提高國內生產總值時，中國再次重申，人民實際生活水平的持續、均衡提高，才是它追求的目標。
中國非常清楚，它的經濟發展已進入了給環境造成沉重負擔的階段，這個負擔甚至讓發展難以為繼。除非改變方向，不然人民生活水平的提高將最終受到威脅。這也是新的五年計划把環境問題當作重中之重的原因所在。
中國很多落后地區雖然趕不上國內其他地區的進度，但其實也正以驚人的速度發展。在削減貧困的同時，這也加劇了不平等，使得城市和農村、沿海和內地的差距越來越大。
更應重視不平等
世界銀行的《2006年世界發展報告》說明了人們應該更關注不平等的問題，而不光是貧窮問題。中國第11個五年計划，也試圖正面解決這個問題。近年來政府一直宣傳建立更和諧社會，第11個五年計划具體地描述了實現和諧社會的宏圖大計。
中國也認識到，落后國家和發達國家不止在資源上存在著差距，在知識上也同樣有相當距離。因此中國制定了大膽的計划，不僅要縮小這種差距，還要為獨立創新奠定堅實的基礎。
中國在全球上和世界經濟中扮演的角色已經改變，這一點在五年計划中也有真實的反映。中國未來的發展要依靠國內需求而不是出口，這就需要擴大國內消費。實際上，中國面對的問題十分罕見：那就是儲蓄過多。人們大量儲蓄的背后是因為政府的社會保險計划存在缺陷，加強社會保險（養老金）、公共衛生和教育，將能夠減少社會不平等，而同時讓人民感到有保障和促進消費。
一直以來，中國几乎每次都能夠超額完成自己設定的最高目標。眼下的目標如果實現，這些調整就會給已經嚴重失衡的全球經濟體系帶來進一步的巨大壓力。
美國巨額的財政和貿易赤字，其實已夠讓體系失衡了。如果中國的儲蓄減少──如果中國真像官員們所說的那樣執行多樣化的外匯儲備投資政策──那么還有誰具有能力為美國每天超過20億美元的貿易赤字埋單？這個問題目前似乎并非迫在眉睫，但我們距離那天已經不會太遠。
中國對未來有清楚的認識，最大的挑戰在于如何執行計划。中國幅員遼闊，如果沒有廣泛的分權作為基礎，根本不可能成功。但權力分散也會帶來很多問題。
公開探討，揭穿謬論
舉例來講，溫室氣體的排放是個全球性問題。在美國宣稱無能為力的同時，中國高級官員無疑表現了更負責任的行為。計划被采納后短短一個月內，中國政府就對汽車、汽油和木制產品征收了新的環境稅：中國正利用市場機制解決自己和全世界的環境問題。
但這對要發展經濟和創造就業機會的地方官員造成巨大的壓力。他們會辯說，如果美國不能以環保的方式生產，我們又怎么能夠做到？
為了把遠見變成行動，中國政府需要推行強有力的政策，已經開始征收的環境稅即為一例。
向市場經濟過渡后，一直困擾發達國家的問題也開始困擾中國：在薄薄的市場面紗后，隱藏著有自私自利企圖的特殊利益集團。
有些人可能會支持涓流經濟學（trickle-down economics）：不必為窮人擔心，每個人最終都會從經濟發展獲益。有些人可能會反對競爭政策，反對強有力的企業監管法律，主張讓達爾文進化論的適者生存來決定一切。隨著政府推行強有力的社會和環境政策，與發展有關的爭論會進一步升級：比如有人會說，高額的燃油稅會扼殺我們新生的汽車工業。
然而，這些所謂的發展政策不僅不能帶來發展，還會威脅到中國的未來。阻止的辦法只有一個：那就是公開探討經濟政策。只有這樣才能揭穿謬論、為制定有創造性的解決方案提供條件。
布什的暗箱操作，把決策權交給一小部分拍馬逢迎之徒的做法，是極佳的反面教材。絕大多數外國人其實不了解中國領袖在解決所面對的重大問題時，如何廣泛地聽取意見（甚至包括外國人的意見）。
市場經濟不能全靠自我調整，不可以挂上自動檔就放手不管。如果想確保所有人都能分享市場經濟帶來的好處，就更不能放任自流。但管理市場經濟不是輕松的任務，必須按照經濟變化隨時進行調整。
中國須隨機應變，第11個五年計划的藍圖，是對調整的適當回應。全世界正目瞪口呆地靜觀其變，默默祈禱，看著13億中國人的生活繼續發生翻天覆地的變化。
﹒作者Joseph E. Stiglitz為2001年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主，現為哥倫比亞大學經濟學教授。曾任克林頓總統經濟顧問委員會主席、世界銀行首席經濟學家兼高級副行長。
http://www.zaobao.com/cgi-bin/asianet/gb2big5/g2b.pl?/yl/yl060412_501.html
VIEW: China’s roadmap —Joseph Stiglitz
Market economies are not self-regulating. They cannot simply be left on autopilot, especially if one wants to ensure that their benefits are shared widely. But managing a market economy is no easy task. It is a balancing act that must constantly respond to economic changes
China is about to adopt its 11th five-year plan, setting the stage for the continuation of probably the most remarkable economic transformation in history, while improving the well-being of almost a quarter of the world’s population. Never before has the world seen such sustained growth; never before has there been so much poverty reduction.
Part of the key to China’s long-run success has been its almost unique combination of pragmatism and vision. While much of the rest of the developing world, following the Washington Consensus, has been directed at a quixotic quest for higher GDP, China has once again made clear that it seeks sustainable and more equitable increases in real living standards.
China realises that it has entered a phase of economic growth that is imposing enormous — and unsustainable — demands on the environment. Unless there is a change in course, living standards will eventually be compromised. That is why the new five-year plan places great emphasis on the environment.
Even many of the more backward parts of China have been growing at a pace that would be a marvel, were it not for the fact that other parts of the country are growing even more rapidly. While this has reduced poverty, inequality has been increasing, with growing disparities between cities and rural areas, and between coastal regions and the interior.
This year’s World Bank World Development Report explains why inequality, not just poverty, should be a concern, and China’s 11th five-year plan attacks the problem head-on. The government has for several years talked about a more harmonious society, and the plan describes ambitious programmes for achieving this.
China recognises, too, that what separates less developed from more developed countries is not only a gap in resources, but also a gap in knowledge. So it has laid out bold plans not only to reduce that gap but also to create a basis for independent innovation.
China’s role in the world and the world’s economy has changed, and the plan reflects this, too. Its future growth will have to be based more on domestic demand than on exports, which will require increases in consumption. Indeed, China has a rare problem: excessive savings. People save partly because of weaknesses in government social-insurance programmes; strengthening social security (pensions) and public health and education will simultaneously reduce social inequalities, increase citizens’ sense of well-being, and promote current consumption.
If successful — and, so far, China has almost always surpassed even its own high expectations — these adjustments may impose enormous strains on a global economic system that is already unbalanced by America’s huge fiscal and trade imbalances. If China saves less — and if, as officials have announced, it pursues a more diversified policy of investing its reserves — who will finance America’s more than $2 billion a day trade deficit? This is a topic for another day, but that day may not be far off.
With such a clear vision of the future, the challenge will be implementation. China is a large country, and it could not have succeeded as it has without widespread decentralisation. But decentralisation raises problems of its own.
Greenhouse gases, for example, are global problems. While America says that it cannot afford to do anything about it, China’s senior officials have acted more responsibly. Within a month of the adoption of the plan, new environmental taxes on cars, gasoline, and wood products were imposed: China was using market-based mechanisms to address its and the world’s environmental problems. But the pressures on local government officials to deliver economic growth and jobs will be enormous. They will be sorely tempted to argue that if America cannot afford to produce in a way that preserves our planet, how can we? To translate its vision into action, the Chinese government will need strong policies, such as the environmental taxes already imposed.
As China has moved toward a market economy, it has developed some of the problems that have plagued the developed countries: special interests that clothe self-serving arguments behind a thin veil of market ideology.
Some will argue for trickle-down economics: don’t worry about the poor, eventually everybody will benefit from growth. And some will oppose competition policy and strong corporate governance laws: let Darwinian survival work its wonders. Growth arguments will be advanced to counter strong social and environmental policies: higher gasoline taxes, for example, will kill our nascent auto industry.
Such allegedly pro-growth policies would not only fail to deliver growth; they would threaten the entire vision of China’s future. There is only one way to prevent this: open discussion of economic policies in order to expose fallacies and provide scope for creative solutions to the many challenges facing China today. George W Bush has shown the dangers of excessive secrecy and confining decision-making to a narrow circle of sycophants. Most people outside China do not fully appreciate the extent to which its leaders, by contrast, have engaged in extensive deliberations and broad consultations (even with foreigners) as they strive to solve the enormous problems they face.
Market economies are not self-regulating. They cannot simply be left on autopilot, especially if one wants to ensure that their benefits are shared widely. But managing a market economy is no easy task. It is a balancing act that must constantly respond to economic changes. China’s 11th five-year plan provides a roadmap for that response. The world watches in awe, and hope, as the lives of 1.3 billion people continue to be transformed. —DT-PS
Joseph E Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is professor of economics at Columbia University and was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to President Clinton and chief economist and senior vice president at the World Bank
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C04%5C09%5Cstory_9-4-2006_pg3_7
|
本城市首頁
等級：6
