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Will the phrase “Guns of August” one day refer not only to the prelude to World War I in 1914 but also to the prelude to a Middle East war in 2013?
That is the ominous question posed by Roger Boyes, the diplomatic editor of the Times of London and a foreign correspondent for the past 35 years.
“The direction of events in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Iran should keep us awake at night. History is taking a dangerous turn,” he writes. “The region certainly cannot sustain two wars — Syria’s bloody insurgency and a near-civil war in Egypt — without wrecking established peace treaties and the normal mechanisms for defusing conflict.”
I sat down with Boyes in our London newsroom. He acknowledged that the conflicts coursing through a half-dozen Middle Eastern countries did not come from a single source, nor did they stem from a single reason.
But he feared the problems were becoming intractable and were spreading across state borders: “the new Sunni assertiveness, the rise of the jihad, the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood not only in Egypt but in every Arab society.”
And Boyes warned that, as in August 1914, the world was not paying enough attention.
“In August 1914 there was a lot of grouse shooting going on. In August 2013, politicians prefer to read doorstopper biographies in Tuscany and Cornwall. Yet the spreading Middle East crisis, its multiple flashpoints, is every bit as ominous as the prelude to war in 1914.”
The news certainly seems to get worse by the day. The West is now directly blaming the Assad regime for using chemical weapons against its own people in Syria. The drumbeat toward a military strike in Syria grows louder by the hour.
The U.K. is “making contingency plans,” according to the prime minister’s spokesman.
“The use of chemical weapons in the 21st century, on a large scale like this, cannot go unaddressed, cannot be ignored,” warned the French president.
And as the United States’ top diplomat put it: “President Obama believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world's most heinous weapons against the world's most vulnerable people."
Western officials warn that the decision of whether to attack Syria will be made this week.
The Guns of August, indeed.
ABC News' Mary-Rose Abraham and Brian Fudge contributed to this episode.
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攻敘準備好了 就等歐巴馬點頭
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美國與數國代表告訴敘利亞反抗軍，最快將在幾天內對敘利亞政府軍發動攻擊，反抗軍應作好參加日內瓦和談的準備。 美國國防部長海格廿七日表示，美軍已完成戰備，只待總統歐巴馬一聲令下，便能對敘利亞政府軍展開攻擊。目前人在東南亞訪問的海格致電英、法兩國國防部長，重申美國要和國際社會共同因應敘利亞化武攻擊，美軍也已準備好因應各種情勢變化。 歐巴馬與國務卿柯瑞廿六日頻頻尋求盟邦理解與支持，美國將武力制裁阿塞德政府使用化武。 華盛頓郵報報導，美軍何時針對敘國軍事基地發射巡弋飛彈或出動長程轟炸機，取決於三因素：敘國政府在上周三疑似化武攻擊事件中的角色與責任評估報告完稿、白宮持續與國會和盟邦磋商的進度、符合國際法的法理。 柯瑞廿六日發表聲明表示，敘利亞當局使用化學武器攻擊脆弱的老百姓，對於犯下如此敗壞道德的事，歐巴馬總統將決定如何回應，讓那些使用最惡毒武器對付最脆弱人民的人負起責任。 柯瑞說，上周發生在敘利亞的事，違背一切道德規範；濫殺平民，以化武殺害婦女、兒童和無辜旁觀者，是敗壞道德的行為。他表示，此事不可原諒，也不容否認，「沒有事情比此事更嚴重，也沒有事情會受到比此事更嚴厲的檢驗。」 柯瑞表示，儘管聯合國調查人員仍在蒐集化武攻擊證據，但從傷亡數字和徵狀，以及從「無疆界醫師組織」等人道組織取得的第一手資料判斷，在在強烈顯示敘利亞的確發生化武攻擊行為。 柯瑞說，他在廿二日與敘國外長穆蘭通話時，就清楚告訴穆蘭，如果敘利亞當局自認沒什麼好隱瞞的，第一時間就應該透明及接受調查，而不是持續轟炸當地。問題是，敘國當局五天來拒絕聯合國人員到事發地展開調查，反而進一步轟炸當地並系統性地摧毀證據，這不是一個宣稱無需隱瞞的政府會做的事。 此外，歐巴馬也積極與各國領袖熱線通話，商討如何因應。歐巴馬致電澳洲總理陸克文前，已先後致電英國首相卡麥隆、法國總統歐蘭德，針對如何因應敘國情勢交換意見。 【2013/08/28 聯合報】 |
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