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民為重﹐社稷次之﹐君為輕?
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曾太公
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麥芽糖

2010/01/30 03:54:33 瀏覽7|回應0|推薦0

I told you so, didn't I? 

I've kept to point out that inflating housing price is the Washington's policy many times in the past 2 years.   Now you know that fact; but you still didn't dig out the real reason behind the scene.  Work harder to ask yourself more why, please, my friend.

Obama is working on an approach that I called "top down" method many times.  He eyes on the symptoms "shown up there" only and uses scientific "drugs" (man-made toxic substance) to control or depress the pains.  On the other hand, I am trying to use "bottom up" approach to cure the disease "deep down here" Naturally (not man-controlled and all nature essence) by market forces of Adam Smith.

Well, don't blame the capitalist "Invisible Hand" not working since all the Washington politicians (as many of them openly admitted that they don't understand the financial world) and New York fat cats try to use toxic formula to eliminate the function of natural market forces.  

Also, don't blame Obama since he is by no means a Chinese (Don't ask me why the famous Reagonist Jude Wanniski could be a Chinese in terms of culture, knowledge and wisdom.)  Conversely he treats "KING", the predators said by James Galbraith or the ruling class called by Karl Marx), the most important. 

As Confucious said "People  First, Country Next, and the King Last 『民為重﹐社稷次之﹐君為輕』."  I am his follower as Jude is.

Why Obama Wants High Home Prices

obamasotuDuring President Obama’s State of the Union Speech tonight, he didn’t talk long about the housing market.

But, what he did say speaks volumes about his policy intentions and the questionable philosophy of his economic advisers.

Obama:

Now, the price of college tuition is just one of the burdens facing the middle-class. That’s why last year I asked Vice President Biden to chair a task force on Middle-Class Families. That’s why we’re nearly doubling the child care tax credit, and making it easier to save for retirement by giving every worker access to a retirement account and expanding the tax credit for those who start a nest egg. That’s why we’re working to lift the value of a family’s single largest investment – their home. The steps we took last year to shore up the housing market have allowed millions of Americans to take out new loans and save an average of $1,500 on mortgage payments. This year, we will step up re-financing so that homeowners can move into more affordable mortgages. And it is precisely to relieve the burden on middle-class families that we still need health insurance reform.

Barney Frank had already semi-officially declared high home prices to be government policy. But this is different…this is from the President.

They are working to “lift home values, allowing “millions of Americans to take out new loans“…do they not remember how we got in this mess in the first place?

It is true that rising prices increase equity and that equity can be withdrawn and spent. This mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) can provide a short-term boost the economy, but the long-term results are obviously disastrous.

Continuing to borrow more money as home prices rise, hoping to someday sell and cash out before the inevitable collapse, is quite literally a Ponzi scheme. This was the economy from 2002-2007.

It doesn’t take an MBA to realize that this path does not lead to economic prosperity.

Who benefits from high home prices?

  1. Banks – who take a greater share of our paychecks
  2. State and Local Budgets – who take a greater share of our paychecks

Who is hurt by high home prices?

  1. Homebuyers – who can’t afford a decent house
  2. Homeowners – who pay too much in interest and taxes
  3. Every other shop or business where that extra money could have been spent
  4. The whole economy as this excess money is wasted on taxes and interest rather than on innovation and starting small businesses

So…why does the government want to lift up housing prices?

The answer: to restore enough homeowner confidence to prevent a stampede of strategic defaults that could cripple the economy.

For example: if Obama had said that the government was working to keep our banking system solvent while the housing market continues its natural market correction, millions of underwater homeowners might decide it’s not worth trying to fight anymore and walk away.

I would have preferred that Obama announce a principal reduction program that would have helped ease the debt-burden for millions of homeowners. Or, more simply, he could have announced support for bankruptcy cram-downs, allowing judges to reduce mortgage debt. This is the kind of help that homeowners actually need.

Instead, he proudly announced that the government will continue to spend billions to make owning a home far more expensive than it should be.


雲遊去了﹐有緣自聚

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麥芽糖

The first chart shows how little money was actually allocated to supporting homeowners. 

The Obama's key policies to keep housing price high are as the following chart (please keep in mind that "reducing dollar's value= high inflation" is one of means in the last of high price expectation):

NOTE: Congratulations.  In some areas of Califronia, US government has been very successful in inflating housing price.  A condo with 989 sqft was listed for about $200,000 one year ago and now today it is listed for $319,000 that is the price level seen at the peak back in 2006.   

If you don't believe it, please see this web link and do your reserach to see it yourself what the similar unit was listed for a year ago:  http://www.redfin.com/CA/Diamond-Bar/23518-Silver-Spring-Ln-91765/home/8049580

Estimated Home Values:

eppraisal value

$250,966

help

Low $213,321 - High $288,610

close Help Icon

Our estimated home value range, an eppraisal, is determined using historical data from public records for properties in the area. However, public records are not always accurate or complete.

The estimated home value range can not capture current market trends or be used in lieu of a visual inspection of the property. These conditions and other local "on the ground" differences can sometimes affect estimated value range.

To obtain a more accurate home valuation, please contact a local real estate professional.



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呂紹煒: 老驥伏櫪的伏爾克, 「殺死通貨膨脹這條巨龍」。
    回應給: 曾太公(et13808) 推薦0


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我見我思-老驥伏櫪的伏爾克


呂紹煒
中國時報  2010.01.29


     在美國總統歐巴馬宣布對金融業祭出一連串「緊縮管制」措施的時候,有一個高大的老者站在旁邊。他就是金融史上的傳奇之一:伏爾克。他以鐵血手段,把通貨膨脹「擠」出經濟體系外,從而奠定美國經濟復甦的基礎。 


  伏爾克在一九七九年由卡特總統提名,擔任聯邦準備理事會(FED)主席,當時,美國經濟衰弱、通膨橫行。一九七八年初通膨約六.八%,年底就到九%;到一九七九年,伊朗巴勒維國王被基本教義派推翻,第二次石油危機出現,通膨堂堂邁向二位數,當年秋季已達十二%。


     伏爾克在這種爛環境中就任,他很清楚自己的任務,就如他說的:「殺死通貨膨脹這條巨龍」。這事,說得容易、做起來難。每個人都知道,穩定的物價是經濟長期繁榮與發展的基本要素;藥方也非常簡單:緊縮貨幣、壓制通膨。但,這一來,必然把經濟推向衰退:更多的失業、更多的企業倒閉,甚至可能引發社會動亂。也許,尚未殺死「巨龍」前,已殺死經濟。


     不過伏爾克鐵了心的做此事,他一口氣把利率拉到兩位數,就任一年後的一九八○年,美國民間利率上升到廿%以上,失業率節節升高到十一%。根據葛林史班的回憶錄說,失業者抗議信塞爆伏爾克的辦公室,建商載一堆鋸碎的木材到他辦公室,象徵他們蓋不成的房子;車商把汽車鑰匙寄來,代表他們賣不出的車子。年中通膨高到十五%


     不過,這只是巨龍的最後一擊─也算是一種「死貓跳」吧。通膨終於逐漸下降和緩,利率也逐漸下滑。但也要到三年後,通膨才算是完全被「擠」出經濟體系外。


     回顧這段過程,連葛老都說,要做伏爾克的事情需要「非凡的勇氣」,在他擔任主席後更相信如此。因為,要把美國經濟「推向慘不忍睹的不景氣有多艱難」。


     為什麼伏爾克成功,其他人無法成功?嗯,因為他夠狠,或說他夠專注,一次只解決一個問題。在經濟發展的目標中,事實上有許多彼此衝突,經濟規劃者多在其間尋求一個平衡點。但對付通膨巨龍,這種「平衡點」勢難奏效。


     葛老就說,他的恩師伯恩斯一直在尋找一個中間地帶,既要不刺激通膨又要不讓經濟窒息。但,這位擔任過十八年聯準會主席的結論是「據我所知,他們所要找的中間地帶並不存在」。


     伏爾克幹了兩任主席就由葛老接任,開啟另一個十八年的傳奇。有人說伏爾克因主張金融管制而被換,事實上當年此議題尚未存在,主因應該是雷根總統的財政部長兼主要幕僚貝克,一直遊說雷根說「是該要有你自己的聯準會主席的時候了」;而個性堅毅、自稱一生不為五斗米折腰的伏爾克,選擇「自我了斷」,在見雷根時遞出一封信,表達不再接受提名。最後,共和黨的葛老就取代伏爾克。


     葛老的傳奇掩蓋了伏爾克,但海嘯讓葛「破功」,把伏爾克再推向歷史舞台。伏爾克「殺巨龍」的狠勁與決心,這回,華爾街碰上他,皮是該繃緊點了。




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ZT: Unbelievable
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麥芽糖

Unbelievable
回覆此篇 刪除 2010/01/30 05:54
I cannot believe the intent behind inflating the price of houses. Did he really believe that would work? Or does he have an ulterior motive?
曾太公(et13808) 於 2010-01-30 06:45 回覆: 刪除

有太多的事﹐是您難以相信的。

談房地產﹐馬上讓我回想起大二經濟學恩師的話:『土地為生產要素之一﹐過高的地價﹐不利經濟活動。』

約兩年前吧﹐破筍及病拉雞用三頁紙﹐提出拼經濟(救銀行家)的八千億元大企劃﹐全國老百姓嘩然﹐群起反對﹔第一次交鋒﹐在國會兩院全部都摃龜﹐對吧﹖但不到約十天﹐偉大的華府說客﹐就四兩撥千斤﹐讓這個惡法﹐輕鬆過關﹐太公的眼鏡都當場跌破﹔宛如看顧公政『第三共產國際的真面目』一書﹐恍然大悟﹐對美式民主有更深的瞭解。

唉﹗太公專精房地產﹐近日匯集觀察﹐實在感觸良多﹐有空提一些讓您想不到的Predator(原譯低痞﹐近日有意改譯成『鴨霸)實踐﹐諸如AMC(Appraisal Management Co﹐LLC)近兩年的興起﹐如FDIC的接收銀行﹐美式廖添丁的『劫急濟鴨【】』﹐來個五鬼搬運於無形﹐或許您能看出一句名言﹐有多少正確性﹕“It depends on who you know﹐ not what you know。”用中文說就是『靠山吃山﹑靠水吃水』﹐只可憐一般老百姓喔﹗

這樣說來﹐太公寫那一文﹐似乎太悲觀消極﹔但要是太公能寫那一文﹐從另一角度看﹐或許您能看到中國『超英趕美』的曙光或方向。

當然這個方向﹐絕對讓中國後來居上﹐不必老是崇洋媚外﹐跟著人家屁股走(西洋的賽先生﹐面對華夏老土的針灸﹐不也得低頭﹖不信乎﹖去看當年『中』美建交時的有關報導﹐中國醫術﹐伊娘列有多神﹐讓老美拜倒﹗唉﹐曾幾何時﹐昨日又黃花【火花】)不是大人物老毛式的﹐一言興邦大躍進﹔而是太公老台土狗﹐人微言輕狗爬耳。



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