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In Benanke's "Fantasy Island"?
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曾太公
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麥芽糖

Yesterday, I was offered an opportunity to buy a piece of Californian property for $53,500 (Also. I was offered to buy a property for $30,000. It is so incredible that the subject property was foreclosed for $120,000 in 2003 and well kept in the bank's vault as non-performing asset through those crazy 2004-2007 Bubble years, until the banker decided to pay back its Fed bailout money of $10 billions.  I may talk about it later.)  

It was sold for $225,000 on 02/06/2004, right on the eve of rapid price uprising.  So at its peak around the end of 2006, it is safe to assume the property is valued at half million dollars.

Sales HistorySales Price
2/6/2004$225,000

 

Sounds very attractive, right? Just so amazingly as Time magazine put Benanke on its cover page as the Man of the year or Obama won the PEACE prize.

Dig it out a little further.  From NAR's realtor.com we find the following listing and sold property data.  Pretty good, LPR is around 2 so that it is a Seller's market.  It should be a very HOT market area, isn't it? (Normally it is considered as a normal market when LPR is 5-6.) Am I lucky as Obama or Benanke?
For the first glance, there are 10 sales in this neighborhood.  

But give me a break!  Let's just not go so fast!
The TRUTH is: How come nobody is buying at this point of time?  Do you know what I mean?

It all depends on the definition of SALE.  Who sets the game rule?
Well, 10 sold comps are "SALES" in the eyes of National Association of Realtors.  But if you don't want to be fooled, you will say "NOT EVEN ONE" sales.  Is it weired?

Further check those sales, it is 100 percent sure that all of them are foreclosure taken back by a banker.  All the buyers are bankers. They are taking those "hot potatos" back into his hands.  No regular decent buyer is there.  Clearly this is a market qualified as a "freeze" one, if not "dead," let alone "HOT and delicious."  
Well, NAR and Benanke style politicians want you believe a "foreclosure" is a sale and serioulsy put into their statistic figures, no wonder our real market is claimed  more rosy as some reports claimed it is up 30 percent from last year. 

So please make more foreclosure; we'll have more sales to prove the market is working to cure itself and our economy is improving.
Want to know what I am going to do with it?  Very good asking! Keep in mind that I am a conservative with a CHICKEN heart: but my action may surprise you.
Well, let's not talk about me or MacroEconomics for now.  What is your response to this buy or not to buy situation? 

Here is what is in Realtor.com.


Here is what is in Realtor.com.

 

Showing 1 - 30 of 30
 














1-20 of 20 from available records



Set Favorite12731 3Rd Street

For Sale$1,860,00002-26-2007--12,136 sq.ft.VALLEY REAL ESTATE
Set Favorite12836 3rd Street

For Sale$599,90001-12-20091 br1 ba768 sq.ft.RICHARDS REAL ESTATE CO
Set Favorite12633 4th Street

For Sale$279,90008-23-20083 br2 ba2,187 sq.ft.ELITE REALTY GROUP
Set Favorite12858 Emerald Bay Court

For Sale$251,90012-11-20094 br3 ba1,956 sq.ft.AN**** INVESTMENT COMPANY
Set Favorite12658 3rd Street

Agent: LOREN
For Sale$225,00006-14-20084 br2 ba1,680 sq.ft.M***T REALTORS
Set Favorite34673 Creekwood Court

For Sale$219,90010-24-20094 br3 ba2,367 sq.ft.PRUDENTIAL CALIFORNIA REALTY
Set Favorite35114 Mountain View

For Sale$190,00011-02-20094 br1 ba1,558 sq.ft.M****L ESTATE-YUC
Set FavoriteNo Photo12774 3rd Street
Agent: MICHAEL NOVAK-SMITH
For Sale$129,90012-07-20093 br2 ba1,994 sq.ft.RE/MAX R****
Set Favorite12618 3rd Street Unit: 43

For Sale$99,90003-18-20082 br2 ba1,407 sq.ft.COLDWELL BANKER
Set Favorite12650 California Unit: 24

For Sale$68,00008-31-20093 br2 ba1,600 sq.ft.Century 21 
Set Favorite12680 4th Street Unit: 3

For Sale$39,90011-18-20092 br2 ba1,320 sq.ft.CENTURY 21 PROPERTIES
Set Favorite12700 2nd St. Unit: 35

For Sale$35,50011-16-20092 br2 ba1,368 sq.ft.VALLEY REAL ESTATE
Set Favorite12700 2ND Street Unit: 46

For Sale$30,90010-16-20092 br2 ba1,416 sq.ft.MOIST REALTORS
Set Favorite12700 2nd Street Unit: 34

For Sale$25,00011-11-20092 br1 ba950 sq.ft.

MO***

REALTORS

Set Favorite12680 4th Street Unit: 60

For Sale$24,90010-14-20092 br2 ba1,120 sq.ft.CENTURY 21 
Set Favorite12710 3rd St. Unit: 17

For Sale$24,90008-18-20092 br2 ba960 sq.ft.VALLEY REAL ESTATE
Set Favorite12700 2nd Street Unit: 25

For Sale$19,90005-23-20092 br2 ba1,040 sq.ft.PRUDENTIAL CALIFORNIA REALTY
Set Favorite12650 CALIFORNIA Street Unit: 1

For Sale$17,90011-12-20092 br1 ba800 sq.ft.

M***

REALTORS

Set Favorite12650 California Street Unit: 40

Agent: LORENA VELOZ-MARTINEZ
For Sale$15,00012-07-20092 br2 ba1,000 sq.ft.M**** REALTORS
Set Favorite12650 CALIFORNIA Unit: 62

For Sale$7,20002-06-20091 br1 ba500 sq.ft.

DE****

REALESTATE

1-20 of 20 from available records

Set FavoriteNo Photo12654 4TH ST

Sold$95,00011-06-20092 br1 ba844 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12937 3RD ST

Sold$162,50010-30-20094 br2.5 ba1,586 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo34410 VIA BUENA DR

Sold$183,00010-27-20093 br2 ba1,492 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo34335 FAIRVIEW DR

Sold$130,00010-22-20092 br1 ba1,249 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12743 4TH ST

Sold$158,50008-25-20093 br2 ba1,482 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12964 3RD ST

Sold$110,00008-06-20092 br2 ba1,716 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12824 CALIFORNIA ST

Sold$149,00007-31-20092 br1 ba777 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo34670 CREEKWOOD CT

Sold$250,00007-08-20094 br2.5 ba2,111 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12865 EMERALD BAY CT

Sold$222,00006-19-20094 br2.5 ba1,949 sq.ft.
Set FavoriteNo Photo12949 3RD ST

Sold$205,00005-28-20094 br3 ba1,708 sq.ft.

1-10 of 10 from available records
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麥芽糖
A few days after this post of mine:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/times-person-of-the-year-drives-the-crisis-spiral-4-36995 

Quoted: 

It only meant that he or she had made a big influence on the course of history during the preceding year. Some have brought us blessings, while others have brought plagues.

And this year it surely seems that Time’s journalists think of Bernanke as a blessing for the world.

Well, I have to strongly disagree …

It Didn’t Work in Zimbabwe,
And it Won’t Work in the U.S.

unquoted

*****

Let's forget the perspectives of MacEconomics, just pay attention to a simple formula:

A + B=C (say, 51+49=100)

If C is made to be a bigger one as Karl Marx's talking: M is becoming M1, M2,...Mn, can we reasonably say A shall be bigger, B is bigger or both figures are bigger at the same time?  

If you say there is no decent base to have the above conclusion valid; Well, probably you are right?

Assume A is foreclosure sale numbers and B is normal sale figures, can you say, when C increases from 100 to 200, A or B is also doubled equally and accordingly?  Is it a fallacy you can see easily?

Anything is possible; A may increase while B is decreasing, say 125+75=200 or the opposite is present (125+75=200); or A is smaller while B is much bigger (40+160=200.)  

Can anyone tell me where I can find a statistics based on "true" sales figures, that is, a collection of SALE transactions as a "normal sale" supposed to really mean, without those distressed" ones?




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用錢賺錢和望梅止渴
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用錢賺錢碰到奧婆媽這個曹操, 當然甘拜下風!

諾貝爾獎委員會, 是當年曹操的部下.

歪人說奧是美國阿扁, 倒是歪打正著!
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