處今大變局﹐各國中央銀行黃金儲備只有$845 Bil﹐世界ＭＯ現金帳金只有$3,9 Til﹐銀行擴張信用至$39 Til﹐股市基金零活運用催化成$62 Til﹐投機房市者又再吹氣﹐金融汔球澎脹﹐全世界各先進國的資產值吹大﹐原先在２００２年約值 $115 Til （含房地產﹑股市及債券）﹐直逼至$290 Til 而告漲破（單股市就漲至 $51 Til）﹔這種氣爆有如洪水海嘯。
以史觀﹐任何經濟狂熱颯漲（如五百年前的Tulip Mania﹐四十年前的台灣十姊妹鳥市）﹐在災後﹐先進國的資產值當然要還原﹐甚至在人心畏懼預期下﹐慘跌至 $100 Til以下（這是非常正常的經濟現象）﹐勢將出現 $190 Til 的票面損失（就私經濟“private economy”言﹐並非真正價值“value”的失卻﹐但在現今會計金融制度下﹐以“fiat money”計算﹐對公經濟“public economy”﹐是非常鉅大的狂洪海嘯）。
現今全球的ＧＤＰ約只有年達$55 Til﹐以各國央銀財力﹐迄今日止﹐所澺注融資總額僅約$2 Til﹐１９０兆比２兆﹐杯水車薪﹐能螳臂擋車﹐力能強抗如此巨大災害﹖
現今各國政府以公經濟的角度﹐目前所採取的切入法“approach”﹐一意以補強金融体這個現代主軸經濟工具為本﹐宛如鯀面對大水之來﹐只顧築高堤防固強﹐不僅忽視私人政濟『母体』中﹐原先人民正常運作的大力能﹐ 根本無從自然發揮﹐甚至『撓亂一池春水』﹐讓人造制度猛如虎﹐人民無正常經濟秩序可遵循﹐亦無『賞罰分明』可據以決策﹐只能在旁受政府擺佈（英文言“ on the sideline”﹐即不採任何行動介入經濟活動﹐以不變的『持現保本』應萬變﹐經濟何能復蘇﹖）。民之活潑力（或可謂經濟學所言的“ incentive”）﹐根本遭棄如狗屎﹐無從發揮『變則通』的潤滑動力﹐一切看政府支配和表演﹐如共產体制吃大鍋飯﹐人人失卻靈活創意﹐仰望共黨的『恩德』佈施﹐也期待民主政府給錢脫困（即今日老美各界大款﹐大言不慚﹐視為當然的“ bailout ”）。自由市場將暫竭﹐或已臨死寂﹖。
The Main Dishes Are Coming Out: Senators' Bullshit! (edit/delete)
I wish I could be wrong.
CNN said, there are 3 main dishes coming out of the Senate. Look at them, I feel so funny to smell something like bullshits.
Nobody is a fool when we look at the recent 3 days stock performance after the last Wednesday. On Wedesday 1-29, we saw Dow surged 200 pionts, Thurday it went down 226, Friday it further dipped another 148. After the weekend, this early morning today 2-2-2009, it heads down 104 points. Do those indices tell us one thing? Everyone shall clearly knows what it is, i. e. they are not going to work, except those sweet-talking politicians.
This morning Inman send me an email with a topic: Inman AM: Housing fixes fall short. I am sorry I can't open the link so that I am not sure about its content. But I believe the article shares the one thing mentioned above: The Senators are farting and bring us all kinds of Bullshit that are ineffective to revitalize the housing downturn.
Well, what kind of quality service we are getting from our senators' wisdom, knowledge or expertise? Those senators are saying that they are "PULLING UP" the housing market, how come all I saw is they are "PULLING DOWN" it, if not "PUTTING DOWN" all the hopes? I don't want to say too much because I am in the bussiness, not in the Ivory Tower or on Fantasy Island to be a unreal idiot cassette player to reiterate "lip service". [NOTE: It depends on what kind of responses from ****** readers. Maybe I will release a draft article "Do We Really Care?" to further express my disappointment at those politicians]. Just enclosed herewith an article to conclude my 2 pennies.
Here we go: If Christopher Dodd is Delighted ...
They should be concerned with guiding the US economy out of the wilderness and back to an equilibrium which we can use as a starting point for new growth. Preventing foreclosures is like holding back the tides.（請見上面補釋） It can't work for long and its likely to cause stiffer consequences.
Stimulus: Senate's housing hopes
Lower mortgage rates, a foreclosure moratorium and more attractive tax credits to spur home buying are among the contenders for amendments to recovery bill.
By Jeanne Sahadi, CNNMoney.com senior writer Last Updated: February 2, 2009: 9:51 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the economic stimulus package moves to the Senate, the drumbeat is growing louder for new provisions that directly address the housing crisis.
Key senators from both parties said they will push for measures intended to spur sales and help homeowners at risk of foreclosure.
"We need to go right at the housing problem. That's what started all of this," Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told CNN.
The Senate floor debate is set to begin on Monday. Here are three ideas likely to show up in amendments:
Create a 4% mortgage: Senate Republicans are likely to introduce a provision that would encourage lenders to offer a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 4% for a limited period of time. The loans would only be available to credit-worthy home buyers and homeowners seeking to refinance.
The government would guarantee the loan for a number of years, an aide to McConnell told CNNMoney.com.
Senate Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., said on the Senate floor Friday that the measure could involve not only a government guarantee but a subsidy as well.
"If today's prevailing rate were 5.2 or 5.3 percent ... the government would make up the difference."
The cost of such a provision hasn't been determined yet, but the aide said Senate Republicans would seek to structure the proposal in a fiscally responsible way, without specifying exactly what that meant.
Offering government-backed low-rate mortgages "could be very popular politically as it tries to fix the banks by fixing consumers," financial services analyst Jaret Seiberg of the Stanford Group wrote in a research note.
But using government funds to force rates lower "could be very expensive," Seiberg said.
And as mortgage rates rise, which they have in recent weeks, such a proposal could grow even more expensive.
Expand home buyer credit: Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., said last week he would propose an expansion of a temporary $7,500 first-time home buyer credit so that it applies to all purchases of primary residences.
Some Republican senators have called for an increase in the credit to $15,000.
On "Face the Nation," Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Sunday that lawmakers "can do more for housing." The proposal to increase the home buyer credit to $15,000 and make it available to all home buyers is "something that we look favorably upon," he said.
The Senate recovery package as it stands now removes the requirement under current law that the credit be repaid by buyers over time, assuming they don't sell their home for three years after claiming the credit.
The credit phases out for individuals making more than $75,000 ($150,000 for joint filers).
Hold off on foreclosures: Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., told reporters last week that he would like a provision in the stimulus package that would impose a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures. Dodd may consider other housing measures as well.
Postponing a foreclosure for three months might allow some troubled borrowers to keep their homes by buying them time to work out a new loan agreement with their mortgage servicer.
Obama housing proposals on deck
Advocacy in the Senate for more housing measures in the stimulus bill comes while President Obama is expected to release a comprehensive plan to fix the financial system within the next two weeks.
Obama has been promising for the past month that he would soon propose a foreclosure prevention program, and many believe that could be part of a plan he announces in the coming week. Indeed, he said Saturday that his plan will include a proposal to lower mortgage costs.
Last month, Obama's economic team promised lawmakers they would use $50 billion to $100 billion of the remaining money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to prevent foreclosures.
Whether the housing measures proposed by Republicans on the Senate floor are intended to be in addition to Obama's proposals or as replacements isn't clear yet.
One of the ideas likely to influence Obama's plan is a loan modification program put forth by FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair that has garnered support from lawmakers. That plan would require that lenders reduce housing payments for delinquent borrowers to 31% of gross monthly income.
Lenders could achieve that by lowering mortgage rates to as low as 3% for five years, before increasing at an annual rate of 1 percentage point until they hit the prevailing market rate. Loan terms could be extended as long as 40 years.
In exchange, Bair proposed the government would share up to 50% of the losses if a borrower who gets a modified loan ends up defaulting anyway. And it would help foot some of the servicers' loan modification costs.