ELEANOR HALL: But while you're talking about a decline in the dominance of the US, is that necessarily detrimental to the global economy?
CLYDE PRESTOWITZ: Depends on how it happens. I mean, I would say on the one hand it's desirable for the US share of the global economy to diminish. I mean after all the US has 5 per cent of the world's population and it accounts for 30 per cent of global production and 37 per cent of global consumption.
So this is a very distorted, bizarre, kind of unrealistic picture, and it needs to be rebalanced.
But how it happens is very important.
The most dangerous scenario I can imagine is a failing China and India. Imagine countries that are really falling apart with these huge populations. Millions of people fleeing, centres of development of new diseases that spread rapidly in the global system.
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So this is a new world and all the assumptions we've been living with really are no longer valid.
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