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看中國同胞解救美國房地產
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| | 2008/12/10 10:56:46 | | Chinese tour groups go house-hunting in U.S. 兩年前﹐在洛杉磯興起一陣風﹐一堆房地產經紀人﹐到處設研討會﹐招兵買馬﹐成立免費旅遊團﹐廣邀華僑回國買房﹔太公義兄油金﹐回安微老家玩一趟﹐在南京買了一公寓﹐他們準備養老用﹔他要我仔細看合約內容﹐在我大驚推銷員的天花亂舌之餘﹐馬上幫他們看合同﹐隨後提出可行性報告﹐他們馬上決定在合同規定的三天內（老美有制度﹐法律硬性規定的消費者無責毀約期）﹐要求撤銷合約﹐拿回押金一萬美元。 各地習俗有異﹐在中國大陸的房地買賣﹐因為土地公有﹐與老美地權私有大不同﹐基本上﹐內地的買房﹐類似老美法律的Ground Lease。 現在﹐真的風水輪流轉﹗生意人腦筋﹐絕不輸當官的﹐更是靈活﹐這就是資本主義的優點﹔買房旅遊團照辦﹐凱子還是來源不窮﹐只是東風壓倒西風﹐花錢大爺換邊做。當年兩岸出國﹐名為考察﹐不少是假公濟﹐純犒賞觀光﹐浪費不少人民血汗。現在﹐大陸大款花自己的錢﹐到美國解救經濟﹐太公看了報導大要﹐真的搖頭嘆息。見人吃麵就吃味﹐又喊燒乎﹖ 唉﹗都什麼時代啦﹖這讓我想起一九八六年﹐黎老總公子昌薏手握中華民國大關刀﹐所擬的『赴美投資方案』﹐讓我在西雅圖笑掉大牙﹐大概是駐美外交官﹐肯花點時間﹐寫公文回國表示『阻礙難行』唯一一人。今天﹐大陸同胞真的要至美投資﹐是這樣子搞法的嗎﹖九十年代﹐老台赴美投資地產﹐有多少人被自己旅美同胞坑殺的﹐好好回看歷史吧﹗ 唉﹗太公在美﹐人可真懶﹐足不出戶﹐絕不曾煩經紀帶我觀光看房﹔ 過去十年買屋﹐都是成交後﹐才見到所買的不動產。各位國內同胞﹐大老遠跨海東征﹐真的好認真﹐精神可佩喔﹗至盼各位知道﹐自己在搞什麼﹖能撿到便宜貨﹖能嗎﹖老天知道。
The cash-rich visitors are looking for bargains in the plunging market. The trips are part of a broader trend of individuals and businesses in China seeking greater investment opportunities abroad. By Don Lee and David Pierson
December 7, 2008
Reporting from Shanghai — Caravans of cash-rich Chinese in Hummers and Lincoln Navigators have been weaving through American neighborhoods in recent months, looking for foreclosures and other bargain properties to buy.
With housing prices crashing in the U.S., home-buying trips to America are becoming one of the more popular tour group packages in China. New U.S. visa rules for Chinese tourists and a loosening of foreign investment policies by China have made it easier for people such as Zhao Hongjun of Beijing to go house hunting across the Pacific.
The 48-year-old owner of a media company went on a two-week road trip through the U.S. last fall, visiting scenic sites and checking out properties from Los Angeles to New York. He's been following the swoon in prices ever since, and next month he's considering joining another prospecting group that is heading for San Francisco, Los Angeles and Las Vegas, three of the hardest-hit housing markets in the U.S.
Zhao's budget: $1 million.
"L.A. is not bad; a lot of Chinese live there," he said, noting that he was interested in both apartments and houses.
The tours are a new twist on an old phenomenon.
Overseas Chinese have been buying Southern California properties for years. What's different now is that they are starting to do it in large groups and quite openly.
"Before, it was kind of private, a quiet thing among friends," said Jamie Lee, a Chinese American who runs the Los Angeles Convention and Visitors Bureau office in Beijing. "Now it's full-blown. . . . It's huge." Some of these groups "are talking about going every two weeks."
Chinese home-buying missions in the U.S. are part of a broader trend of individuals and businesses in China seeking greater investment opportunities abroad. This week government and business officials from China's southern Guangdong province will arrive in Los Angeles to create a regional chamber office.
Certainly, a wave of Chinese bottom fishers won't end the housing woes in Southern California, where by some measures the median price has sunk more than 40% since the spring and summer of 2007.
But it could help rev up sales in some places, including the UC Riverside area and the San Gabriel Valley, home to large Chinese American communities and mentioned by some potential buyers as places of interest.
Ling Chow, president of the San Gabriel-based Chinese American Real Estate Professionals Assn., says brokers and agents welcome the mainland tours -- anything to shake the doldrums of the market crash.
But Chow, who mostly serves mainland Chinese buyers, is more skeptical about any new wave of Chinese home buyers making a significant imprint. Unless they're willing to spend more than $400,000, they'll probably be disappointed in the available homes. Chinese are culturally inclined to buy new homes and prefer high-achieving school districts, demands that drive up prices.
Chow said Chinese buyers' affinity for paying in cash will benefit them during the credit crunch. Many of her mainland clients have paid with cash, often for mansions and condos in Arcadia, where they can begin the immigration process or leave their college-age children to live alone.
The Chinese do have a lot of cash to spend. The central government holds the biggest stockpile of foreign reserves in the world, nearly $2 trillion, most of it in dollars. And the Boston Consulting Group estimates that there were more than 391,000 millionaire households in mainland China last year, up from 310,000 reported the previous year.
Still, Beijing has been cautious about outward investment, given the uncertainties of the financial crisis and heavy losses that its sovereign wealth fund has sustained buying stakes in American financial institutions such as investment bank Morgan Stanley. In addition, China's economic growth has slowed sharply in recent months as the nation's exporters have been hurt by slumping U.S. demand, and China's own real estate market has been sluggish.
But home prices in the U.S. have fallen more sharply than in China, and many Chinese consider the American market highly alluring as a place to invest and live because of the United States' developed economy.
The purchasing tours in the U.S. grew out of similar trips by well-heeled Chinese back home.
Investors from Wenzhou and other entrepreneurial hot spots were known for chartering buses to visit such cities as Shanghai to shop for apartments. Now some of them are signing up with outfits like Soufun.com, the real estate website that is sponsoring the home-buying trip next month from Beijing to California and Nevada.
Liu Jian, chief operating officer at Soufun Holdings, said his group's tour would focus on homes priced between $200,000 and $300,000, just at or below the median for Southern California. More than 300 people have registered for the trip, which could last 10 days and cost each person about $2,200, excluding airfare.
"Many of them want to buy because they have actual needs to live there or for their children," Liu said. "They will hold the property for quite a long period."
James Chou of Coldwell Banker George Realty in Alhambra said he was preparing for several groups from China early next year, totaling up to 200 people. His firm will provide hotels and tour buses.
Chou said the potential investors were keen to see foreclosed homes, but he warned that it would be difficult to educate them about the home-buying process in such a short time. He said they had little understanding of single-family houses, coming from a country where most people live in urban apartments.
"I don't think they know much about the market here," Chou said.
Lee, of the L.A. Convention and Visitors Bureau, has mixed feelings about these gou fang tuan, Chinese for home-buying groups. On one hand, she says, they will be staying and eating and shopping in Los Angeles, pumping dollars into the local economy.
On the other hand, Lee has been working hard in China to publicize the biggest attractions of Los Angeles: its great weather, beaches, Hollywood and theme parks.
"I'm promoting tourism to L.A., but not to go to buy cheap houses," she said. "Are we that desperate?"
Mei Xinyu is ambivalent for a different reason. As a researcher for China's Ministry of Commerce, Mei doesn't want to see a rush of Chinese buying homes in the U.S. and getting burned.
"The housing price right now in the U.S. is fairly low already, but it's hard to say how long it will remain in the valley," he said.
Chinese investors, Mei added, should be careful to study the markets before plunging into them. In some places, they could face a backlash, just as there was when the Japanese went on a shopping spree in the U.S. during the 1980s. What's more, he warned, some American cities may not bounce back at all.
"China is still in the process of urbanization. It's unlikely to turn into ghost towns," he said. "But the U.S. is different."
Yuan Lixin says his group's tour to the U.S. is meant to address precisely that concern -- to give visitors a deeper understanding of the real life of America over 14 days, before they buy into the real estate.
"What we sell is the culture, American culture," said Yuan, a planning department official at Beijing Youth, a newspaper enterprise that has organized group tours to the U.S. since late 2006.
The tours didn't start out as home-buying trips, but while driving across the continent in luxurious SUVs, people couldn't help but take notice of "For Sale" signs outside houses, including those that appeared to be empty, Yuan said.
"In many cases, members would stop the car and actively ask about the house situation," he said.
"Now because of the financial crisis, ordinary people in China also are starting to make large purchases in the U.S.," Yuan said. "In the past, people who traveled to the U.S. might carry back a large luggage with American goods. It's just that this time, what they bring back are [papers showing] hundreds of thousands of dollars of a house."
Lee and Pierson are Times staff writers.
Cao Jun in The Times' Shanghai bureau contributed to this report.
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看了您老兄本主欄文﹐以及下面一主欄文﹐太公思潮萬千﹐想到羅馬共和國﹐和平轉變成為帝國制﹐想到中國皇帝的三宮六院制﹐唉﹗伊娘列﹐人老了﹐愛回憶﹐也想到我恩師西洋史學家裕隆董事長吳舜文。 就把因華碩而正在寫的另一文章放下（只提一小供部分有關者）﹐改變方向﹐跟國人談談最根本的基石政治學﹐寫一篇『美國早已實踐老鄧一國兩制精神』。但是一想﹐用太多精神﹐雞鴨還是不識牛肉﹐白費濟佛太極功﹐還是先測試聯網人的興趣與水平﹐若國人沒興趣﹐就不用費己神。 就先提二個主軸問題﹕ 【一】為何古中國有皇帝『三宮六院』制﹖提示引子﹕現代科技複製羊。 【二】民主政治與帝王專制固有其區別﹐但二者有一最大共同點﹐極力想解決的問題是什麼﹖提示﹕均富（例如﹐羅馬帝國興起）及均窮（例如﹐天主教教皇衰弱失勢）。 世事無常﹐人腦有活﹐現在先發表棄寫文中一部分有關內容如下﹐請丏兄及Ｐ兄賜教吧﹕ 暫停寫文片段 現在此際﹐老美國會動不動就大手一揮﹐撥個幾十幾百幾千萬億美元﹐不說眼睫毛啦﹐連臉皮都沒動一下﹐蓋小事一椿﹐這等功夫﹐言大利以營私﹐靠誰人推動大搞﹖就是華府說客（lobbyist ）。 那什麼又是說客﹖靠上下兩張皮嘴皮﹐能說善道者也。依老美法律﹐這事需要登記佈眾﹐言明為何主子服務。換言之﹐用法眼觀制度﹐這些說客﹐並非拍板決事的老闆﹐也非事主當事人﹐一個中間人的經紀人（agent ）﹐只是咱中國紹興師爺﹑台灣的黃牛是也。 目前老美華府公開登記的政治說客﹐為數約四萬人。這個數目字﹐在三億三千人口之國﹐只有四萬人﹐一萬人裡有一個而已﹐這僅約萬分之一。以比率言﹐沒有什麼了不起的嘛﹗ 常聽人說﹐只要大陸人﹐搞個運動﹐『一人一口痰』﹐就足以淹死全部台灣人﹔以台海兩岸人口數比﹐老台二千三萬﹐約佔老中十五億的七十分之一﹐純比數字﹐老美大眾應該更有機會﹐『以痰淹死』老美說客﹐會比親共狂徒更幸運﹐可以事半功千倍﹐同樣一口水﹐就可『淹死他個千百次』喔。 今天不談政治﹐回歸本題﹔這四萬二的遊客﹐操老美華府工廠﹐生產出貸生殺大權﹐是頂尖人中龍乎﹖呵﹗何止人龍躍龍門﹐萬人之上﹐應該是天子命﹗ 只是太公相對論者﹐向下比是太有餘﹐上面的推論﹐那是肯定而當然﹔只是若往上比呢﹖往北上﹐就會出華府到紐約﹐進入華爾街的小圈圈。唉﹗面觀此情勢﹐只能讓太公想起國人說的﹕『大圈圈裡﹐有個小圈圈﹔小圈圈裡﹐有個黃圈圈』。碰上那只有四千人的黃金圈﹐嘿嘿嘿﹗那些華府來客﹐與肥貓一聚﹐依娘列﹐宛似八十年代老台土財主出國觀光﹐今日大陸大款組團考察﹐就算個個不鄙俗﹐也總体形象無斯文﹐撇扭得怪喔。
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這可是華爾街的報導, 不是麥芽糖造謠: December 10, 2008, 11:31 am (Wall Street Journal) China: The Power Behind the $700 Billion Bailout
Posted by Heidi N. Moore
As Congress prepares to gift $15 billion to the three U.S. auto makers, there remains the mystery behind this year's $8.5 trillion bailout cycle: where is all the money coming from?
The usual answer is "taxpayers," but the real answer is a bit more complicated. Yes, taxes will pay part of the bill. But the rest will be piled onto the national debt, which will be financed by selling Treasury bonds to other countries. Primarily, these days, that means China and the countries of the Middle East. Chinese money, in fact, was one of the few things that kept Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going as long as they did before a government takeover. It doesn't take a geopolitical genius to figure out that situation will lead to awkward diplomacy.
China isn't ignorant of this power. This month, veteran journalist James Fallows interviewed Gao Xiqing, the man who oversees $200 billion of China's $2 trillion in dollar holdings for China Investment Corp., or CIC. CIC is China's sovereign-wealth fund and owns stakes in Blackstone Group and Morgan Stanley. The interview in this month's edition of The Atlantic is forebodingly titled "Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money," which is Mr. Gao's primary advice.
One of Mr. Gao's thoughts illuminates his take on how we got into a mess that needed an $8.5 trillion cleanup. In his vision, Main Street and Wall Street share equal blame, and, like the chubby, infantilized citizens in "Wall-E," are shunting off their problems on other countries and perhaps, soon, other planets. Here is what Mr. Gao tells Mr. Fallows:
Think about the way we've been living the past 30 years. Thirty years ago, the leverage of the investment banks was like 4-to-1, 5-to-1. Today, it's 30-to-1. This is not just a change of numbers. This is a change of fundamental thinking.
People, especially Americans, started believing that they can live on other people's money. And more and more so. First other people's money in your own country. And then the savings rate comes down, and you start living on other people's money from outside. At first it was the Japanese. Now the Chinese and the Middle Easterners.
We—the Chinese, the Middle Easterners, the Japanese—we can see this too. Okay, we'd love to support you guys—if it's sustainable. But if it's not, why should we be doing this? After we are gone, you cannot just go to the moon to get more money. So, forget it. Let's change the way of living. [By which he meant: less debt, lower rewards for financial wizardry, more attention to the "real economy," etc.]
Compare that to the take of New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki:
Last year, Asian countries invested almost four hundred billion dollars in the United States, mostly in government bonds. China is effectively taking most of its excess national savings and lending it to the United States. The Japanese, who despite their creaking economy remain flush with savings, bought a quarter trillion dollars of American debt last year, even though the interest is lousy and the assets themselves are losing value. More than any other nation in history, the United States depends, economically, on the kindness of strangers. Right now, Asian investors appear very kind.
Mr. Surowiecki wrote that, by the way, in April 2005. Other publications were sending up warning signals about the portion of national debt in foreign hands soon after.
The problem, of course, is that depending on the kindness of strangers is not, by most accounts, sound economic policy.
The bailout has revealed the ignorance of many Americans about the the financial food chain. Just like consumers who believe beef comes from shrink-wrapped packages in the supermarket rather than actual cows, many Americans have long acted as though money comes from ATM machines and plastic cards. The credit crisis, with its top-to-bottom ravaging of the financial system, made that naivete impossible to maintain: the average citizen's borrowed money comes from banks, and those banks borrow from Wall Street investment banks, and Wall Street investment banks borrow from the government, and the government borrows from China, Japan and the Middle East. A flat-screen TV bought in Dubuque is financed with part of the tax bill of a salaryman in Tokyo.
Mr. Gao's comments also reveal a bailout paradox: the more America bails its companies out, the more they will need bailing out. That is because other countries–including, yes, China–don't have any guidelines about how TARP is being deployed. That prohibits their investment. CIC said it doesn't "have the courage" to invest in Western banks because the fund doesn't know how bad things will get. The U.S. government's bailout efforts may be, despite the best intentions, hindering the recovery.
As the bailout inevitably heads into the second phase of its deployment–criticisms of misuse, and later, perhaps, villainy and indictments–the government surely will look to impose laws to ensure such a financial crisis isn't repeated. But if Mr. Gao is right, it isn't new laws that are needed, but a new appreciation of where our money comes from, and who we will owe in the end.
 
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