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天下沒有什麼天蹋下來的事
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Is it really so ordered by the doctor Adam Smith or John Keynes?

 

Up this morning, radio news reports:

1. Unemployment is up again.  15,000 people got into the line for the benefits.  Gee, we already had aggregate of 9 million people lost their jobs in a year!

2. Foreclosure is up 70% this quarter.  When the trend can be stopped? 

3. Alan Greenspan is about to testify in Congress today to express his view that we have a once in a life time "credit" tsunami.  (NOTE: Gee! Alan, are you out of your mind!   What are you talking about?  Who cares about a narrow "credit" tsunami; while facing a more broader gigantic "ECONOMIC" ones.  See below to see a Alex's remark) The reporter John Delmare asked who can save us?  John McCaiin or B. Obama?

I am just wondering none of them has a specific plan, let alone an effective plan to solve the difficulties we have faced today.  All they talked about is any kind of dream or principle.  They are good in labeling each other: socialism or capitalism.  The only thing I liked so far is the nuclear power plant John McCain supports when I dislike his recent "spreading the wealth."  No, trust me, Obama is not so smart to come up an idea of "spreading" it, even he did say it is for us to "steal(ing) it" from the crisis.

In a comment on Irwin's article "Just what the doctor ordered" , I mentioned that there is a clue to the map for us to see the light of direction.  Allow me to quote the comment here:

Gee, in this crisis of economy and presidential campaign, it seems we have a "Joe the plumber" without license and "the Henry the Secretary" without foresight. 
Situation is somehow like if we ask a blind: "you told me we had an urgency to spend $700 billion today on the front of a war.  How come everything went so wrong!  Did you put it on the front?"  I believe, the next question out of your mouth for him would be like this: "Can you tell me where the front is?" 
Ouch, where is the front for us to fight?  Gee, as Johnny the illiterate can't read, are you asking a Hankie the blind to see the front side of a coin?
Here enclosed is a hint to the map, can you see it?

October 22, 2008 12:20 P.M.ET
BULLETIN 
Dow falls as much as 700
INVESTOR ALERT
Earnings worries slam stocks

In the past two days, the frequent terms used in financial reports are "less earning", "no profit", "lower crude oil price", "job cutting" and "dim sales."   What all these mean?    To me, they tried to tell us one thing and one thing only:  no incentive of profit.  As to stock, fro the same token, we may call it "a lack of reasonable calculated risk of profit."

Without incentive, we are transformed into a zombi (no wonder some called it "voodoo economy" recently.)   No matter what it is in housing, financial, retailing or whatever you name it except crime, divorce and Ebay pawn shop sale, the downfall can't be stopped until we infuse it.

There are so many symptoms to the distress and so complicated to blind us to see the main cause.  Maybe the US economy does happen to have a heart attack and cancer at the same time as some people claimed.  If we skip (or ignore) the complexity and clarify our thoughts (to run into a possible single-minded risk) as Dr. House in "Grey's Autonomy"; or let me put it this way, if we can be so decisive as the GWB gang found the one and only resolution to cure the crisis: to spend $700 billion on "bad assets,"  can we find the main cause and a real medicine to urgently turn the economy around and stop job losing immediately?

What's the main cause or the one and only medicine under this simplified consideration?  I keep asking myself the question and try find an answer.   I have to say the main reason that causes all the above terms so popular can be concentrated on "demand" side, not Paulson's answer of (credit) "supply" side.   

Last night, I listened to Charlie Rose.  The former CEO Alex of Bear Steam claimed that the concept of "investment bank" is now dead and has no way to work again, after its great contribution to this country for 100 years.  A century-old notion can be vanished or abandoned overnigh, really? 

Wow! new generation needs new toys.  How can we make our society more fitter to survive or take new challenges?  Ooh, well, we all hear our society have all kinds of problems, like a lawsuit-prone society or "well regulation" or "no regulation".  Can we dump the idea of "lawyer rule" to have a much simplified society as Japanese have that a hot topic in 1980'?  Can we do...  It is too much for us to think for now.

Let's just pick this crisis dragging down everything financial and look at it very prudently.  Can we find a quick fix except the Paulson's baloney that is not working? 

Sure we can do it easiy.  Am I kidding?  Damn it, excuse me for expressing myself again.  Yes, I am surely an incurable optimistic, a capitalistic one, but not a naive. 

ps: No matter what kind of same old shits we put in today, tomorrow is still another different beautiful day with the Sun rising from the East as Annie's song.  Who cares whatever the GWB gang is doing if I can't do anything about it and I have my cute American dollar under my mattress?

ps: After I wrote the main article, Alan Greenspan just told the congress a few minutes ago: "It is a shock (or unbeleveable) to me" to see the current mess in financial crisis. 

How are you going to interpret his words?  

Without his full text, my first impression is Alan is right.  Although Alan may try to excuse himself, I have to agree with him that the mess is literally mishandledly created by GWB.  History will tell.

I am just wondering what it woud be if Mr. Greenspan could be in power as the chief of FED today, who handled our economy so well for so long under his leadership.   Can we blame him for what happen now, after he stepped down as us, a Mr. Joe on the main street, without any say? 

I wouldn't.

 


雲遊去了﹐有緣自聚

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『正知足』﹖『歪自爽』﹖誰理『你他媽』的屁呢﹖
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麥芽糖

放棄美元﹖讓人想起蘇聯革命建國﹐癈棄西方國際法﹐也讓人憶及老毛土法煉鋼﹐『鎖國孤立在世界外﹐外匯存底只有二十三億美元的日子﹗

唉﹐現居美東北區的優秀『阿美士』人﹐認為電是邪惡﹐拒絕用電﹐排斥一切現代產品。伊娘列﹗從某種角度觀﹐沒有電﹐就沒生態問題﹐沒有溫室效應﹐是他們有先見﹐樂觀安命俗野﹖還是悲觀﹐因曀廢食﹐忽視主流﹐拒絕進步文明精緻﹖

此聯合報文是高論﹖還是『稿』論(亂搞﹖騙稿費﹖)人各由心﹐滿心喜悅的『正知足』﹖還是滿腔悲情的『歪自爽』﹖

咱日子過得去﹐誰理您眼睛張不開﹐就效『尋王城』文市長說的﹐花巧妹歌頌的﹐在那兒放『你他媽』的屁呢﹖

Dollar's uptrend against rivals, Europeans Don't Buy US Real Estate (尚未發行)
時事評論財經 2008/11/03 09:41 |瀏覽 1|回應 0|推薦 0|引用

SAN FRANCISCO-- That imported bottle of Dom Perignon may cost about 20% less to buy in dollars than it did three months ago, but Americans still shouldn't rush to toast the dollar's dramatic recovery against most of its rivals.
....
 
In October alone, the euro as well as the British pound sterling fell more than 9% against the dollar, and the Australian dollar plunged more than 16% against the greenback. The Canadian dollar lost over 14%. As credit conditions tightened, equities sold off and fears of global recession rose, the resulting flight-to-safety flows favored the dollar over all but the even lower-yielding Japanese yen.



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徐麗玲: 美國獨霸終結? 新總統大考驗
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美國獨霸終結? 新總統大考驗

2008年的美國總統大選即將在全球彌漫著迷惘不安的氣氛下進行。「美國製」的金融風暴襲擊全世界,動搖國際金融體系,也撼動美國的世界超強領袖地位。
2008年的美國總統大選即將在全球彌漫著迷惘不安的氣氛下進行。「美國製」的金融風暴襲擊全世界,動搖國際金融體系,也撼動美國的世界超強領袖地位。這一個多月以來,多國政府首長及媒體評論都相繼發表美國獨霸時代即將終結的言論,並有多股勢力在積極推動構築國際新秩序。美國能否繼續在國際上扮演唯一領袖的角色,如今許多國家都投以懷疑的眼神,這勢必成為未來白宮主人所要面對的重大考驗。

據美國華爾街日報披露,一份預定在11月總統大選後公諸於世的美國情報機構評估報告顯示,美國仍將是引人注目的強權,只是從現在起到2025年,美國統領全球的優勢將顯著下滑。金融風暴使美國國庫捉襟見肘,將使美國在國際間的影響力大不如前,諸如中國和俄羅斯等其他主要國家是否會在此時積極發動外交攻勢以擴大其影響力,必須密切關注。

過去這一個多月期間,國際間為了共商拯救經濟金融之道,創造出各國與地區之間密集磋商的機會,也確實開啟了新的結盟合作之門,逐漸脫離以往以美國為中心的國際運作模式。不久前剛結束的亞歐高峰會共有來自亞歐43國的領袖群聚北京,規模空前。英國外交大臣米利班德就表示,這場盛會不僅展現亞歐對重建國際金融秩序的共識,更顯示全球的經濟力量已由西向東移轉。

金融風暴加速了全球經濟實力西消東長的趨勢,也牽動國際均勢的微妙變化。在德國外長率先宣判美國將喪失其經濟強權地位之後,德國明鏡週刊則倡議全球新秩序已經浮現,未來應是美國、歐洲與中國三強鼎立的局面。這將是影響未來全球經貿的三大主要勢力,彼此之間不但存在競爭較勁,更需要相互合作、維持均勢,才能確保世界和平與繁榮。因此,美國新任領導人上台之後必須推動三方集團的形成,更重要的是美國不能再處處以自身利益為優先,而是應該從全球利益的角度出發。

俄羅斯則是另有一番盤算。在新興經濟體中,俄羅斯與巴西、印度和中國並列為「金磚四國」,這四國過去的經濟表現吸引全球目光,在金融風暴之後的國際舞台上能否繼續扮演重要角色同樣引起關注。俄羅斯總理普亭宣稱,金融危機顯示金磚四國將是未來全球經濟的火車頭。俄國外長拉夫羅夫則表明,金磚四國將會通力合作對抗金融危機,並將在11月15日於美國華府舉行的全球高峰會中力抗美英歐所代表的西方銀行利益。

俄羅斯還邀集金磚四國的財金首長在華府高峰會之前另行會商,以協調四國在因應金融危機上的步調。俄羅斯與中國的關係也因此次危機而更趨緊密,中國同意提供250億美元貸款予俄羅斯,俄羅斯則將在未來20年供應中國三億噸原油,交涉長達14年的俄羅斯油管中國支線也終於拍板定案。俄羅斯總理普亭並且還主張,未來中俄間的貿易應該揚棄美元,而直接用本國貨幣進行。

事實上,不僅俄羅斯有意揚棄美元做為國際貿易計價貨幣,在歐亞高峰會召開期間,中國人民日報海外版也在頭版評論中倡議歐亞雙邊貿易應該放棄美元。評論中並指責美國是利用美元的獨尊優勢而掠奪全球財富,全球迫切需要以其他貨幣取而代之。另同屬金磚四國的巴西則是與阿根廷達成協議,自10月初起兩國間的貿易就不再以美元為交易單位,直接改以本國貨幣進行。巴西政府並且表示,希望在兩國率先示範之下,其他拉丁美洲國家也會跟進。

這種種發展無疑都對美國的至尊地位形成挑戰,美國該如何維護其超強霸業,在國內已浮現多種聲音,值得關注。華爾街日報的一篇專論就認為,美國未必會喪失超級大國的地位,因為全球經濟衰退可能反而符合美國利益。最近幾天,網路上則廣泛流傳一篇中國人民網引述法國媒體的報導,指稱美國智庫蘭德機構向國防部建議,以7000億美元紓困還不如用同樣代價發動戰爭,更能收振興經濟之效,並維護美國的超強地位。

這類說法使未來美國的對外關係蒙上陰影。儘管過去八年來全球反美情緒高漲,但不容否認國際間普遍還是希望美國能扮演領袖角色,而且是一個能融入國際群體、遵守遊戲規則並顧及全球利益的負責任領袖。在全球經濟金融情勢深陷混亂之際,美國及全世界都殷切期盼「改變」,下一任美國總統正是處於這重要的轉折點,他所肩負的不只是對美國人民的承諾,還要滿足全世界的期待。

【2007/11/03 聯合新聞網】






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老美固有雞鴨﹐還是比聯網老中講理﹐對吧﹖
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曾太公
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麥芽糖

Folks,


I got 4 thumbs down and 1 up in my previous comment. I would like to say: "Sorry for those 4 who choose to live in denial" even I was not given their reason(s).
Sorry again to say it is of no use to point our finger at others as a scapegoat and express our angry. Our ancestors did whatever they believed good for us. However, It is still up to us to take care of ourselves.  Even President Abraham Lincoln did a great job, he is unable to keep his offsprings from running into "no kid" situation. 
It is not the time to blame at Mr. Greenspan. At least, he didn't DIRECTLY create the recent mess.  It is the time for us to wake up and find the solution.  Even I believe the GWB gangsters have the major responsibility, not Alan; I have never shout at them.


Take our responsibilities to beat the challenge, not complaints.

I don't know why you guys are just shouting angry out here. Nobody leaves me a comment on my article "McCain, Obama or Zombi rule our economy" and enlightens me so far.

I decide to post the above article at the other website here in case you are unable to make a click; and critcize me with reason as hard as you can (just please don't give me a shit "silent thumb down" as a stupid dummy).

If you happen to not agree with me, and threw your shits on me. No complaint from me, only appreciation for your job to make me more realistic.

ps: Within 3 minutes, I immediately got 3 thumbs up and no down after posting the above comment.  I am glad to see you guys are with reason that we can have a good discussion.

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