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麥芽糖

Olympic Gold Medal: Greenspan Tells us Housing will Bottom in 2008. Meantime Foreclosure Filings hit Historical Record.

Posted: 14 Aug 2008 02:47 PM CDT

....Today the nationwide foreclosure filings were released and guess what?  They are the highest ever!  Take a look at this chart:

Foreclosures

This was the largest number of foreclosure filings ever recorded yet if you look at some of the financial and housing stocks, they rallied because sales increased a bit.  Again, ... you'll quickly realize that things are not improving.  And you'll also notice how Greenspan talks about national housing prices bottoming in 2009.  Which is a nice way of covering yourself since 5 states make up 57% of all foreclosure filings.  Places like California won't be hitting a bottom until May of 2011 and the data points to this.

Here is a breakdown of foreclosure filings from the top 5 states:

Foreclosure states

 

Clearly ....  Even with the massive 38% drop, California home prices are still $368,250 while the median household income is $53,770.  This ratio is simply unsupportable even at current levels.

I've noticed a few mainstream articles cover the so-called shadow inventory issue.  We talked about this in the previous articlebut I've raised this issue for months on end.  Call it what you want but this is shady manipulation of the market and toying with nuisances of the MLS.  Want some proof?  Take a look at the July 2008 foreclosure filings for California:

July 2008 Data
REO:               23,406

NTS:                12,506

NOD:              36,373

Approximate California Inventory:    310,000

Total Southern California Foreclosure inventory today:    8,548

....

Think about that for a second.  Southern California made up 49.4% of all California sales in the month of June.  We had 23,406 homes go back to lenders in July and 12,506 trustee sales yet the MLS foreclosure sales are only at 8,548 for Southern California?  Let us assume that out of 35,912 homes that were foreclosed in July half are in SoCal.  That would push up the inventory numbers by 17,956 just in one month!  ....  (A)ccording to their data months of inventory is actually getting healthier.

It is absurd.  REOs are being understated to the point of being criminal.  ...like they saw nothing wrong with subprime lending.  When you look at various sources, isn't apparent what is going on?  Greenspan should win a medal for revising history.  Clearly people are now trying to underplay the actual market data and want to believe that housing is at a bottom.  Anyone with an ounce of logic can see the numbers above and see something is clearly wrong.

 

******   *******  *******

 

My first response:

My salute to Dr. Housing Bubble.

In a very short article, Dr. Housing Bubble covered so many doubts I have and provided his explanations:

1) FDIC and OTS took over Indymac Bank on July 11, 2008.  In fact, it is a "nationalization" of Indymac Bank to wipe out private IMB shareholders, without solid reason, as Greenspan suggested to two GSEs.  IMB had never been on the watch list of FDIC 30 risky banks this first quarter.  Hardly to say whether it was on the list until the month of July.  The only one reason OTS officially admitted for them to take over IMB is that they "believed"there is a situation with that Indymac couldn't deal.  In short, OTS did not believe Indymac could handle customers to "run a bank."  Is that what's the situation and who created it?  Go ask Senator Schumer about his series of "concerns" sent to FDlC and what's happen after his letters? 

Now, let me ask you a question: Is there any banker, including JP Morgan, Citi, BofA, who can deal with such a situation Indymac faced that most of his depositors want move money out of his bank?  Bear in your mind, how much cash reserve the banker has in order to run a federal banking business.  If the legal requirement is only 10% to 15%, how could he or she have the cash liquidity when all he/she has is those auction-grade securities at hand?  

Next, if all of our bankers would be unable to meet the challenge created by Schumer's situation of political manipulation, why pick on Indymac Bank alone?  Could Washington Mutual or Downey Savings handle it?  Or name me one who can?  

Thirdly, we America is a free society.  Could we be allowed to do things so radical as a communist to "nationalize" a private company to wipe out its shareholder's interest?  Is it what we called "due process" or "ends justify means"? 

I sure agreed on Dr. Housing Bubble's saying: "Baloney."  Common, that' a wrong answer.   Give me a better one.

2) I especially love these two expressions of Dr. Housing Bubble: "the logic is rather simple" and "Anyone with an ounce of logic can see the numbers above and see something is clearly wrong.  However, I am just wondering how many people have an ounce of logic when manias exist with herd mentality in his brain?

3) I have been wondering where those REOs have gone for a year.  How could they disappear in the thin air of writeoff or writedown?   Then, who is supposed to hold the bag?  

As figures said, in SoCal, we had 23,406 homes go back to lenders in July 2008 and total accumulated inventory of REOs should be 310,000.   In the summer of 1996, we saw the highest number in foreclosure activity report of about 60,000 at the peak.  Clearly, the situation is a lot worse than that, about 5 times more activities in foreclosure. 

But how come we have only 8,548 REO listed on the market?   Why those financial institutions are seemed not "anxious" in selling those "non-performing assets (allow me to say more precisely a.k.a. debts" or giving a hard time to give an approval to shortsale agents.   A lot of smokes here, are there some other "game plays" for them sitting comfortably on the "junk portfolio" and waiting to be "rescued" at other's expenses?

4) According to real estate statistics, there is only about 5 percent of our existing residential units that is available for purchase.  Some economic students said that creating 19 times wealth to our people (95% divided by 5%=19).  Yes, we felt so rich when housing prices went up, but it is just a "equity" or credit.  Everyone with knowledge knows the difference between warm "credit" and cold "cash."  Also, as Prof. Lestor Thurow said, our American economy is hardly qualified as a "perfect competition" model.  Indeed, we are an oligarchy market.  If everyone put his own house on the market, we would have a "perfect" market and price would be amazingly lowed.  

Clearly, it is not the case in our scoiety.  But how could the 5% affect the other 95%?  How come our lawmakers are seemed very concerned about the 5% and have tried to rescue them by at least putting our green dollar at hugh risk and inviting "inflation"?  Who is daring to ask those 5% liable for what they have recklessly done?  To avoid them as plaque and have a surgical operation to get rid of them as a cancer to our body.  Who would take care of the majority of taxpayers to stop the cancer spread (a.k.a. subprime toxic loan spillover)?  Looking around, there is none, except the Indymac's downfall.

Recently when my neighbors came to my doorsteps and asked me to loan them $20 for their gas purchase, I wish someone who runs for the recent presidential campaign could come up and say, "Enough is enough.  Let's get down to the Earth and do the basics to take care of our own people first." 

Don't tell me that I am a protectionist when we spent trillions of dollars to be nice to other people and ignore the poverty in our backyard in which 20-25% of our American (a.k.a. poor folks) faced and suffered. 

Sen. Schumer gave 4 Gold Medals of "Bad Policy Olympic" to Bush administration yesterday for surging foreclosure, highest inflation, job loss.  Why didn't the Senator give Himself the 5th one of "politic interworking with economy"?

I am sure be very happy to give Dr. Housing Bubble a Gold Medal for his "Good Insight."

I hope, someone has the guts to tell us the real picture or interesting stories.  And I believe it would be as interesting as the $100 billion JP Morgan and other big corporations are NOW so eagerly making a $6 stove sale to people in the 3rd world.   Be careful, use your imagination to not look down at JP Morgan!  Through the "skilled" handling, a huge profit can be created by their magic wands: $30 of carbon credit out of every smallest deal as valued as a $6 McDonald's hamburger package. 

Gee! make a profit of $30-60 out every sale of $6, I have to say "mission impossible" done perfectly.  I couldn't done better than that.

 


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***** ****** *****

Invisible Lives

Anderson suggests that the cycle of poverty can begin to be broken. "We think about what big government can do, but it boils down to individuals helping individuals and reaching out."

For Oprah, providing education and hope are critical keys to decreasing poverty. "The greater percentage of my money goes to education and educating kids, because I think education is enormous in opening the door to opportunity for people … We can help people hold on."

What a coincidence!  Just after expressing my concern over the poverty we have in our own backyard, I took a break to barely watch Oprah's show: "A special report: America's Poor."  

[ please go to watch it at http://www.oprah.com/dated/oprahshow/oprahshow_20051012: Oprah Special Report: Inside the Lives of America's Poor The dirty secret nobody wants to talk about: Thirty-seven million people live this way. On location with CNN reporter Anderson Cooper, Maria Shriver and Gayle King. ]

In my life, I have lived in so many places from Atlantic Ocean to Pacific Ocean.  I have never thought of this kind of poverty does exist in America for I was a public officer living in all kinds of luxury environments.  Even I am not a rich guy, I have never lived in a "two pay check" situation as Oprah mentioned.   I have never seen so many poor people in our own country until I decided to retire 4 years ago.

When I told my friends I was going to Texas,  I was told that "why you are going there?  It is poor people area".   I didn't believe it, all I had in my mind was the movie "Dynasty."  Now, I saw a lot of sad stories caused by poverty.  And I can't agree enough with Anderson for what he said, "Once fall, hard to get up."  The poor do need a good "break," but who will give them an instant one in time, except Food Stamp or SSI program?  

When I read an article reporting a lot of Church giving out daily financial advice to their distressed homeowner members, I was just wondering: Is there a "home sweet home" project for them?    

Oprah was striken out by the situation reported.  She is so brave to let us watch the "invisible" reality and face the cruelty.  Why we don't see them?    Simply as Oprah stated, "we can't pretend we don't see it."   Wake up, Americans need to preserve "the Family Value" those poor said of.

All the solutions are good from the observation of Oprah, the Anchorman Anderson Cooper or the California First Lady Maria Shriver.  They are with merits.  However, I feel that they are too general in principle.   They are not a set of step-by-step working programs directly to the point, particularly when Oprah said, "most of my contribution to charity goes to education first."   Yes, education is very important.   But it is NOT the only resolution, particularly it is too late for those poor who made wrong decisions to be a high school dropout.  

Could we afford to sacrifice the current parent generation for the next one?  If the poor could not deal with their daily life NOW, how can we expect their children get what they need and have the opportunity to learn of how to cope with the real world and act with the society correctly?  Education has to long term effects, but too far away from being a savior to the poor families.

Can we, as real estate professionals, do something such as helping them to live in their house?  Certainly I am not referring to those inhabitable ones without plumbing, phone, or electricity in the show.  Without a decent home/shelter provided by their parents (amazingly unbelievable, 42% single parent countrywide are living under the poverty level), how can we give those children other means to education?

In this housing downturn turmoil, I believe, we can do better to the poor.  However, it seems just as Oprah said, "nobody wants to talk about the dirty side of America."  

Yes, most of us are busy in making money or bragging about how glorious we are in building a democracy in Iraq.   But, wait a minute, please look at our own people under the poverty level first.

 

與歐普拉報導老美貧窮困境﹐純屬巧合﹔中國民國能做些什麼﹐回報當年老美扶我們一把﹐以彰顯老丏在他欄回應中﹐說的『中華民族智慧』﹖

唉﹗雞鴨只知義和符﹐猛耍雙節歪棍﹐狂頌『中國王道大國』以自淫而已﹔口水大道滿天飛﹐實策實益卻不至﹐就別妄思啥個『智慧』。

還是繼『往日絕學』﹐當土八路吧﹗距老鄧『現代化理想』﹐仍日遠喔﹖



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