Acreage for Genetically Modified Crops Declined in 2015
By ANDREW POLLACK

The world’s farmers have increased their use of genetically modified crops steadily and sharply since the technology became broadly commercialized in 1996. Not anymore.

In 2015, for the first time, the acreage used for the crops declined, according to a nonprofit that tracks the plantings of biotech seeds.

The organization said the main cause for the decline, which measured 1 percent from 2014 levels, was low commodity prices, which led farmers to plant less corn, soybeans and canola of all types, both genetically engineered and nonengineered.

But the figures for the last few years show that the existing market for the crops has nearly been saturated.

Only three countries — the United States, Brazil and Argentina — account for more than three-quarters of the total global acreage. And only four crops — corn, soybeans, cotton and canola — account for the majority of biotechnology use in agriculture. In many cases, more than 90 percent of those four crops grown in those three countries, and in other large growers like Canada, India and China, is already genetically modified, leaving little room for expansion.

Efforts to expand use of biotechnology to other crops and to other countries have been hindered by opposition from consumer and environmental groups, regulatory hurdles and in some cases scientific obstacles.

“Onerous regulation for transgenic biotech crops remains the principal constraint to adoption,” said the executive summary of the report by the nonprofit, known as the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications.

The organization states its mission as helping small farmers in developing countries take advantage of biotechnology, which it maintains can increase farmer income and reduce use of chemical pesticides. It receives financial support from various foundations, companies, trade groups and governments, including Monsanto and the United States government.

Still, the group’s yearly acreage tallies are widely cited, even sometimes by critics of biotechnology.

The policy conclusions reached by the group are another matter. Bill Freese, science policy analyst at the Center for Food Safety, which generally opposes genetically modified crops, said that the organization’s reports were “just total boosterism.”

The slowing of growth in agricultural biotechnology has contributed to consolidation within the industry, with DuPont and Dow merging and Syngenta being acquired by the China National Chemical Corporation. It is also a factor behind Monsanto’s efforts to diversify, including through an unsuccessful bid to buy Syngenta last year.

Over all, the acreage planted with biotech seeds in 2015 fell 1 percent globally to 444.0 million acres, from 448.5 million acres in 2014. The crops were grown in 28 countries and used by up to 18 million farmers, most of them small ones in developing countries, the report said. Critics say that despite the expansion over the last two decades, biotech crops still account for a small fraction of global farmland and are grown by a small percentage of the world’s farmers.

The value of the seeds was $15.3 billion in 2015, down from $15.7 billion in 2014. That represents 34 percent of the global commercial seed market, the report said.

Most of the genetically modified crops contain genes from bacteria that make the crops resistant to certain insects or tolerant of Roundup or other herbicides. That tolerance of herbicides can allow farmers to spray those chemicals to kill weeds without harming the crop.

The crops were eagerly adopted from the moment they first became widely commercialized in 1996, particularly in the United States. Global acreage grew year over year, in many years by double digits, until a slowdown in the last two or three years.

The United States remained the largest grower of such crops in 2015, with 175.2 million acres planted, down 5.4 million acres from 2014. That decline was largely offset by an increase of nearly five million acres in Brazil, bringing its total to 109.2 million acres. Acreage in Argentina, the third-largest grower, increased to 1 percent, at about 60.5 million acres.

Plantings in India, whose only genetically engineered crop is cotton, were flat at about 28.7 million acres while cultivation in Canada fell by about 5 percent to 27.2 million acres because of lower overall cultivation of canola, the report said.

L. Val Giddings, a proponent of biotech crops, said the small yearly decline was a sign of a maturing market.

“I’m completely unsurprised to see this slight evidence of cycles, which are normal in agriculture,” said Dr. Giddings, senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, an organization in Washington that advocates for policies that enable innovation.

Efforts to introduce different traits and different crops have been slow to take hold.

In the United States, two notable new genetically engineered crops were approved since late 2014 — apples that do not turn brown when sliced and potatoes that produce less of a potential cancer-causing chemical when fried. But in response to activists, some food companies like McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Gerber have said they have no intention to use one or both of those products at present.

Development of those markets will be gradual, with only about 400 acres of the potatoes and 15 acres of the apples planted in 2015, according to the report.

With Vermont now set to require labeling of foods containing genetically modified crops, some big food companies like Campbell, General Mills and Mars have said they will start labeling all their foods nationwide. Del Monte Foods went even further, saying it would eliminate ingredients from genetically modified crops in many of its products.

In China and India, growers have widely adopted cotton engineered to be resistant to insects. But efforts to expand the use of biotechnology to food crops have faltered. China has devoted a lot of research into developing its own versions of genetically engineered corn and rice but has not approved them yet for commercial use.

In India, the government in 2010 imposed a moratorium on commercial cultivation of insect-resistant brinjal, a type of eggplant. Recently, the government has said it would reduce the fees that Monsanto and its local partner can charge cotton seed companies for their genes, prompting Monsanto to threaten to re-evaluate its business in that country.

Europe remains the center of opposition to the crops. Cultivation in the European Union fell 18 percent to only about 300,000 acres, almost all of that insect-resistant corn grown in Spain.

The report said the global acreage could expand if genetically modified corn were to be adopted in China and in other parts of Asia and Africa. Vietnam began growing such corn commercially in 2015. The report also said there were 85 potential new products being field tested, including drought-resistant corn and pest-resistant cowpeas for Africa.

全球基改作物種植面積 首下滑

基因改造技術一九九六年廣泛商業化後，全球農民使用的基改作物其後逐年激增，但此情此景已不復見。紐約時報報導，根據追蹤生物技術種籽種植的非營利組織「農業生物技術應用推廣協會」，全球基改作物種植面積二○一五年首見下降。

協會報告指出，二○一五年基改作物種植面積較二○一四年減少百分之一，從二○一四年的四億四千八百五十萬英畝，減至四億四千四百萬英畝，原因應是商品價格下滑，農民因此減少種植玉米、大豆、油菜，無論基改或非基改作物都見減少。

事實上，過去數年的統計數字已說明，基改作物的現行市場已接近飽和。全球四分之三的生技作物是由美國、巴西、阿根廷三國種植，其中又以玉米、大豆、棉花、油菜籽四種作物占生技使用的最大宗，這四種作物九成以上由這三國種植，其他主要基改作物種植國如加拿大、印度、大陸，可擴張的空間也極小。

一九九六年基改作物商業化後，全球種植面積逐年增加，許多年還以兩位數成長，但過去二至三年成長開始減緩。支持生技作物瓦吉丁斯說，逐年小幅下降是市場飽和跡象。

引進新特質和新種作物的努力，遲遲無法見到成果。二○一四年底至今，美國僅通過兩項較為人注意的新基改作物，一是切片後不會變色的蘋果，二是油炸後較不易產生致癌物的馬鈴薯。但因活躍人士反對，像麥當勞、溫蒂漢堡、嘉寶等連鎖店均說目前仍不打算使用這兩項基改食物。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/13/business/acreage-for-genetically-modified-crops-declined-in-2015.html

2016-04-14．聯合報．A13．國際．編譯王麗娟