Michael Bloomberg Says He Won’t Run for President

By MAGGIE HABERMAN and ALEXANDER BURNS

Michael R. Bloomberg, who for months quietly laid the groundwork to run for president as an independent, will not enter the 2016 campaign, he said Monday, citing his fear that a three-way race could lead to the election of a candidate he thinks would endanger the country: Donald J. Trump.

In a forceful condemnation of his fellow New Yorker, Mr. Bloomberg said Mr. Trump had run “the most divisive and demagogic presidential campaign I can remember, preying on people’s prejudices and fears.” He said he was alarmed by Mr. Trump’s threats to bar Muslim immigrants from entering the country and to initiate trade wars against China and Japan, and he was disturbed by Mr. Trump’s “feigning ignorance of white supremacists,” alluding to Mr. Trump’s initial refusal to disavow support from David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader.

“These moves would divide us at home and compromise our moral leadership around the world,” Mr. Bloomberg said in a column published Monday on Bloomberg View, his opinion site. “The end result would be to embolden our enemies, threaten the security of our allies, and put our own men and women in uniform at greater risk.”

The decision by Mr. Bloomberg, who served three terms as the mayor of New York, ends months of intensive preparation for a candidacy. Convinced that a restive electorate was crying out for nonpartisan, technocratic government, he instructed his closest aides to set up the machinery for a long-shot billion-dollar campaign that would have subjected his image to a scorching political test.

They covertly assembled several dozen strategists and staff members, conducted polling in 22 states, drafted a website, produced television ads and set up campaign offices in Texas and North Carolina, where the process of gathering petitions to put Mr. Bloomberg’s name on the ballot would have begun in days.

Mr. Bloomberg held extensive talks with Michael G. Mullen, the retired admiral and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about forming an independent ticket. Lawyers for Mr. Bloomberg had completed the process of vetting Mr. Mullen, and all that remained was for Mr. Bloomberg to ask formally that Mr. Mullen serve as his running mate.

Torn between his aspiration and a mountain of data showing that the path for an independent campaign aimed at the political center was slim and narrowing, Mr. Bloomberg, 74, ultimately abandoned what would probably have been his last chance to run for the White House.

Had both Mr. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont appeared headed toward victory in the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries, Mr. Bloomberg was determined to run, according to his advisers, several of whom insisted on anonymity to speak candidly about confidential discussions.

But Mr. Bloomberg balked at the prospect of a race against Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton, who has established a dominant lead over Mr. Sanders on the Democratic side. In his column, Mr. Bloomberg said he could not in good conscience enter a race that could lead to a deadlock in the Electoral College — and to the election of Mr. Trump, or perhaps Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.

Mr. Bloomberg’s decision brings a new measure of clarity to a race that has come sharply into focus in recent weeks, and reflects both Mrs. Clinton’s tightening grip on the Democratic contest and the growing alarm among mainstream political and business leaders about Mr. Trump’s populist insurgency.

Mr. Trump is widely seen as a weak general election candidate, and surveys conducted for Mr. Bloomberg bolstered that perception. Mr. Bloomberg’s veteran pollster, Douglas E. Schoen, gauged his prospects in polls in February and March, testing Mr. Bloomberg as a candidate nationally and in 22 crucial states.

At the outset, about two-fifths of the country had no familiarity with Mr. Bloomberg, who may be best known nationally for his support of expanded gun control legislation. But Mr. Schoen’s February polling found that after voters heard mostly favorable descriptions of Mr. Bloomberg, Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders, Mr. Bloomberg collected 35 percent of the vote and a solid lead in the Electoral College. In a race against Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton, however, Mr. Bloomberg faced far tougher odds.

The most favorable result for Mr. Bloomberg might have been a stalemate in the Electoral College, with no candidate capable of taking the 270 votes required. Under those conditions, the House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a majority, would choose the president.

A second poll, taken by Mr. Schoen from Feb. 28 to March 1, found that Mr. Trump was bleeding support with general election voters after a flailing debate performance and a disastrous interview in which he failed to disavow Mr. Duke’s support.

Still, the poll found Mr. Bloomberg could overtake Mr. Trump and fall short of eclipsing Mrs. Clinton.

Mr. Bloomberg acknowledged that cold math in his column. “I believe I could win a number of diverse states,” he wrote, “but not enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency.”

By opting not to run, Mr. Bloomberg is deactivating a political apparatus far more extensive than the one he assembled the last time he seriously weighed a run for president, in 2008. In private conversations, Mr. Bloomberg appeared far more enthusiastic about running now, and he laid out his ambitions in conversations with leaders including Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain.

Aides planned an elaborate campaign to introduce him to the electorate, and consulted with Milton Glaser, the architect of the “I Love New York” campaign, and the Swedish-born designer Thomas Meyerhoffer, of California, to work on logos.

His messaging would have stressed Mr. Bloomberg’s identity as a self-made man and a problem solver not beholden to either party. A draft of his website carried the slogan, “All Work and No Party.” One logo, etched in purple, read simply: “Fix It.”

A rough cut of a presidential campaign ad described Mr. Bloomberg as the product of middle-class Medford, Mass., who built a multibillion-dollar enterprise from scratch. It cast Mr. Bloomberg as a philanthropist who had given generously to fight deadly diseases, and highlighted his experience managing New York’s security after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

“Finally, a new choice,” the commercial’s narrator says. “Independent Mike Bloomberg: President.”

Trevor Potter, the election lawyer who was counsel to Senator John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, was retained to assemble legal teams to handle local and state ballot-access issues, and address constitutional questions that could arise from an inconclusive result in the Electoral College.

A ballot-access consultant, Michael Arno, leased nearly a dozen offices in Texas and North Carolina to begin gathering signatures to place Mr. Bloomberg on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

For Mr. Bloomberg, the decision drops the curtain on a long-held dream.

In announcing it, Mr. Bloomberg said he expected to serve in other ways. “For most Americans, citizenship requires little more than paying taxes,” he wrote. “But many have given their lives to defend our nation — and all of us have an obligation as voters to stand up on behalf of ideas and principles that, as Lincoln said, represent ‘the last best hope of earth.’

“I hope and pray I’m doing that,” he wrote.

不想讓川普賺到… 彭博不選總統了

彭博曾嚴肅考慮競選美國總統，承諾3月初明示動向，他7日宣布，由於擔心三人角逐分散選民造成川普得利勝出，為國家大利，他決定不出馬。

彭博在《彭博新聞》編輯部「彭博觀點」撰文「我不要冒的風險」說：「我愛我們的國家，不希望扮演會造成一個要削弱全民團結，並且讓我們的未來變暗的候選人當選的角色。」

文章說，美國內則薪資停滯，外則美國影響力式微海外，人民憤怒復無奈，府會只知惡鬥與諉過之際，參選人競尋代罪羔羊，不思解決之道，空談毫無可能兌現的承諾。

文中指出，民主黨參選人抨擊柯林頓政府促進成長與機會的政策：支持貿易、削減赤字、扶助金融部門，共和黨人則抨擊雷根政府促進成長與機會的政策：移民改革、在稅賦與福利改革方面折衷而行，並支持跨黨達成的預算案。兩位總統皆為務實解決問題派，而非意識形態空談家。

文章說，他自幼所受庭訓是「回報」，因此犧牲小我擔任12年紐約市長，如今樂於繼續犧牲以助國家，迎向當前美國最大的課題：使政府為人民而非為遊說團體與選戰金主服務；欲成此功，領導者必須以獲致結果而非以連任為心，有打造中小企業與創造就業的經驗，懂得如何平衡預算，不惟特殊利益是贍，而且事事誠實面對民眾。

但彭博說：「加入角逐，我贏不了。我自信能夠贏得幾州，但不足以獲得勝選所需的270張選舉人票。三人角逐，不可能有任何一人贏得多數選票。」

「當前共和黨主控國會兩院，我參選非常可能導至川普或克魯茲當選」，「本乎良知，我不能輕冒此險」。

彭博接著痛斥川普選戰分裂美國與煽惑民眾，利用民眾的偏見與恐懼，訴諸人性裡最低劣的衝動，其立場「將分裂全民，損傷美國在全球的道德領導地位，令敵人壯膽，危害友邦安全，陷美國部隊於更大危險」。克魯斯言詞稍緩，但立場同樣極端，和川普的口號一樣不可能「使美國再度偉大」 。

目前民主黨的希拉蕊與川普仍在拉鋸，但希拉蕊似乎勝券在握。共和黨則仍是川普、克魯斯、魯比歐相爭之局，但川普勢不可當，望之穩居贏面。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-not-running-for-president.html

紐約時報中文版翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/usa/20160308/c08bloomberg/zh-hant/

Video：A rough cut shows an ad that would have been used in a Michael R. Bloomberg presidential campaign.
http://nyti.ms/1X7TFON

2016-03-08．聯合晚報．A6．國際焦點．編譯彭淮棟