U.S. Proposes Reviving Naval Coalition to Balance China’s Expansion
By ELLEN BARRY

NEW DELHI — The chief of the United States Pacific Command, Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., on Wednesday proposed reviving an informal strategic coalition made up of the navies of Japan, Australia, India and the United States, an experiment that collapsed a decade ago because of diplomatic protests from China.

The proposal was the latest in a series of United States overtures to India, a country wary of forming strategic alliances, to become part of a network of naval powers that would balance China’s maritime expansion.

The American ambassador to India, Richard R. Verma, expressed hope in a speech that “in the not-too-distant future,” joint patrols by navy vessels from India and the United States “will become a common and welcome sight throughout Indo-Pacific waters.”

And officials have said that the United States is close, after 10 years of demurral from the Indian side, to concluding a logistics agreement that would allow the two countries’ militaries to easily use each other’s resources for refueling and repairs.

Though he did not specifically mention China on Wednesday, Admiral Harris said powerful countries were seeking to “bully smaller nations through intimidation and coercion,” and made the case that a broad naval collaboration was the best way to avert it.

“Exercising together will lead to operating together,” he said, before meetings with his Indian counterpart. “By being ambitious, India, Japan, Australia and the United States and so many like-minded nations can aspire to operate anywhere in the high seas and the airspace above it.”

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office, India has ramped up naval cooperation with the United States. It reacted angrily in 2014 when a Chinese People’s Liberation Army submarine docked in the Sri Lankan port of Colombo, and has warily watched the expansion of one of President Xi Jinping’s priority projects, a maritime “silk road” with major ports in Gwadar, Pakistan, and Chittagong, Bangladesh. When President Obama visited India last year, the two countries issued a joint statement on “the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean region,” something India had refused to do in the past.

Still, some of the American proposals smack of wishful thinking. India has not, to date, shown interest in carrying out joint patrols with the United States, even under the more neutral auspices of counterpiracy operations.

Officials here rebutted a Reuters report last month in which a United States official suggested India might participate in joint patrols in the South China Sea, something not even treaty allies like Australia or Japan have agreed to.

“The last thing India wants to do is accidentally make itself into a front-line player in the South China Sea,” said Nitin A. Gokhale, a security analyst, adding that “the best U.S.-aligned players can expect” is for India to remain active in regional forums, and shore up smaller navies like those of Vietnam and the Philippines.

“I don’t think India will be a front-line state,” he said.

Admiral Harris’s proposal of a quadrilateral security grouping, given at a forum hosted by the Observer Research Foundation, is certain to capture Beijing’s attention. It did the same in 2007, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan introduced the idea.

But Chinese analysts viewed the grouping as hostile; one called it a “mini-NATO.” Even before the four countries convened for their first joint meeting, China had sent formal diplomatic protests to Washington, New Delhi, Canberra and Tokyo. At a summit meeting with China less than two years later, Australia announced that it was withdrawing from the quadrilateral arrangement.

Under Mr. Modi, India’s navy has embarked on the creation of a web of bilateral and trilateral agreements, which serve the same purpose but are less likely to be “caricatured” by China as a containment strategy, said Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Security College at the Australian National University. He added, however, that growing cooperation with the United States had forced China to take India more seriously.

Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, dismissed the idea that the grouping could be revived, and said that India would not join such a network for fear of Chinese retaliation.

“China actually has many ways to hurt India,” he said. “China could send an aircraft carrier to the Gwadar port in Pakistan. China had turned down the Pakistan offer to have military stationed in the country. If India forces China to do that, of course we can put a navy at your doorstep.”

美倡組海軍同盟 揪日印澳抗中

太平洋美軍司令哈里斯2日提議恢復非正式的海軍戰略同盟，成員包括日本、澳洲及印度，被解讀為意在制衡北京擴展海域。紐約時報報導，類似構想在2007年就曾由當時的日本首相安倍晉三提出，後因北京反對而解體。

人在印度訪問的哈里斯表示，美國與印度擴大軍事合作不僅對美國的亞太再平衡政策非常重要，更堪稱是「美國在21世紀最具指標意義的夥伴關係」。

美國駐印度大使威瑪表示，希望「在不遠的未來，印度與美國海軍船艦在印度洋與西太平洋共同巡弋，成為常見且受歡迎的景象。」哈里斯深表同感，還說印度與美國海軍船艦很快就會「聯手維護所有國家的航行自由」。

美方官員透露，印度反對10年後，美國總算快要和印度簽訂讓兩軍使用對方資源加油和維修的後勤協議。

哈里斯沒有點名中國，但批評有大國對小國威脅恫嚇，「印度、日本、澳洲和美國聯合在海空巡弋，是嚇阻大國霸凌小國的最佳方式。」

印度總理莫迪上台後，印度開始加強與美國海軍的合作。但是要延伸到共同巡弋，仍言之過早。連共同打擊海盜的巡弋，印度都沒參與。月前媒體報導印度可能會參與美軍在南海的巡弋，遭到駁斥。

印度國安專家高海爾表示：「印度最不願意做的事情就是在南海爭端站上第一線。」

9年前類似同盟成立後，北京透過外交管道向4國表達抗議，稱為「迷你北約」。兩年後，澳洲宣布退出同盟。

上海復旦大學國際關係教授沈丁立告訴紐約時報，因為擔心中國報復，印度不可能加入美國的同盟：「中國有很多種手段可以傷害印度，像是派航母到巴基斯坦的瓜達爾港。中國已經拒絕巴國的邀請。如果印度逼使中國那麼做，我們當然可以擺艘軍艦在你家門口。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/03/world/asia/us-proposes-india-naval-coalition-balance-china-expansion.html

紐約時報中文版翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20160303/c03india/zh-hant/

2016-03-04．聯合報．A17．國際．編譯張佑生