Chinese Missiles on Disputed Island Underscore Growing Conflict Risk
By MARK LANDLER and MICHAEL FORSYTHE
WASHINGTON — China’s deployment of surface-to-air missiles on a disputed island in the South China Sea, at the very moment that President Obama is trying to buttress American influence in the region, underscores the growing risk of conflict among the Chinese, their neighbors and the United States.
A day after Mr. Obama gathered 10 leaders from Southeast Asian countries for a summit meeting in California, a United States official said the Pentagon had evidence that China had placed missile batteries on an island that is part of an archipelago claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, as well as by China.
At the meeting, Mr. Obama sent a warning to China, declaring that the United States would “continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows” and that “we will support the right of all countries to do the same.” He said he had discussed with the leaders the need to halt further reclamation and militarization of islands in the South China Sea.
“What China is doing is worrisome because they’re obviously increasing their capacity for surveillance and for sustaining a presence that is well beyond what they’ve had before,” said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a senior fellow and an expert on China at the Brookings Institution.
But even as Beijing reclaims land to bolster its claims to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and its many reefs and islets, the United States is likely to move cautiously, current and former officials said. It does not want to set off a military confrontation with China over territorial claims on which the United States has not taken a position.
Moreover, the Asian countries remain divided over how robustly to resist China’s expansion. Maritime countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, which have competing claims with Beijing, are pushing for more vigorous action, while continental countries like Laos and Cambodia, which have close economic ties to China, are reluctant to provoke their neighbor.
Those divisions were evident in the wording of a joint statement issued at the end of the California meeting, which asserted the need for freedom of navigation and the peaceful resolution of disputes, but made no direct mention of China or the South China Sea.
A senior administration official said the specific weapons system that China had placed on the island was less of an issue than the signal it sent to neighbors.
China’s move appeared to be a coincidence, despite its disclosure just hours after the end of the summit meeting.
The United States official who described the missile batteries, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, did not give details about how many missiles were on the island, known as Woody Island, or how long they had been there. But another official said they appeared to be operational. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry also issued a statement on Wednesday saying that antiaircraft missiles were present on the island.
The Chinese Defense Ministry did not confirm or deny the deployment, but noted that the Chinese Navy and Air Force had maintained forces on the Paracel Islands “for many years.”
“The Paracel Islands have always been a part of China’s territory,” the ministry said in a statement. “China has the legitimate and legal rights to deploy defense facilities within its territory, in order to defend the sovereignty and security of the country.” It dismissed the reports about the missile deployment as “hype by certain Western media outlets.”
Tensions are also rising elsewhere in the region. The United States is in formal talks with South Korea about moving an antiballistic missile system to the peninsula to deter an attack from North Korea. The Chinese government has objected to the system, known as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or Thaad, saying it would be a threat to its security.
The Chinese missile deployment in the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea was reported by Fox News, which said pictures from ImageSat International showed that two missile batteries had appeared on the island sometime between Feb. 3 and Sunday. The missiles have a range of about 200 kilometers, or 125 miles, and are capable of destroying aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, according to Missile Threat, a website run by the George C. Marshall Institute in Arlington, Va.
“It’s not that they would use the missiles to shoot down a plane,” said Mr. Lieberthal, of the Brookings Institution. “That would be a game changer. The question is, are we going to see a situation where they turn targeting radar on a ship conducting a freedom of navigation mission?”
Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., the head of the United States Pacific Command, said on Wednesday that the missile deployment, if verified, would go against pledges not to militarize the South China Sea that China’s president, Xi Jinping, made at the White House in September.
But Mr. Xi, in his remarks in Washington, referred specifically to the Spratlys, a different chain of islets and reefs, and not to the Paracels when saying that China “does not intend to pursue militarization.”
Zhu Feng, a professor at Nanjing University who studies China’s foreign policy, said the Chinese made a distinction among South China Sea island groups. He noted that the Paracels were much closer to the Chinese mainland than the Spratlys, which are more than 250 miles to the south and have been the focus of much of China’s island-building efforts.
Woody Island, known as Yongxing in China, has a military airstrip that juts out from both ends of the small island and is used by fighter aircraft. It also has a military garrison and a civilian government building.
The missiles may give the United States and other nations pause before they send aircraft over the area to challenge China’s maritime claims, said Euan Graham, the director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia.“There may be a military element to this, but also a signaling element,” Mr. Graham said.
陸強勢槓美 飛彈部署西沙永興島
美國與台灣國防部官員分別證實,中國大陸在南海西沙群島的永興島(Woody Island)部署遠程防空飛彈。這是美國口頭警告、派遣戰機、驅逐艦到南海爭議水域巡航挑戰北京主權宣示以來,陸方最強勢的回應。
五角大廈官員指出,中方部署的應是「紅旗九」(HQ-9)防空飛彈系統,射程200公里,接近俄羅斯的S-300防空飛彈系統,將對接近的民用與軍用飛機造成威脅。圖像衛星國際公司(ISI)提供的衛星空照圖顯示,大陸在永興島沿岸部署兩處地對空飛彈陣地,設置8座地對空飛彈發射器與雷達系統。
美國上月30日派遣驅逐艦駛近西沙群島的中建島,與部署防空飛彈的永興島距離160公里。
美國華府智庫「戰略暨國際研究中心」(CSIS)資深研究員葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)表示:「我相信中國計畫這些部署已有相當時日。中國近來在永興島替戰機建造強化的機棚,部署防空飛彈加強防備,並不令人意外。」
根據衛星照片,永興島的海灘在3日仍空無一物,14日就看到飛彈,應是在上周完成部署。一位美方官員證實照片的真實性。五角大廈官員表示,正密切觀察事態發展,呼籲各聲索國停止在南海島礁填海造陸、興建工程和軍事化等舉動。
澳洲國立大學國家安全學院院長麥卡夫認為,北京在南海爭議水域持續軍事化,下一步可能是宣布成立防空識別區。
原文參照:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/world/asia/chinese-missiles-underscore-a-growing-conflict-risk.html
紐約時報中文版翻譯:
http://cn.nytimes.com/china/20160217/c17missiles/zh-hant/
2016-02-18.聯合報.A3.焦點.華盛頓記者賴昭穎-編譯張佑生