Vietnam’s Communist Party Gives Old-Guard Leader a New 5-Year Term
By MIKE IVES

HANOI, Vietnam — The Communist Party of Vietnam has chosen the incumbent general secretary as the country’s top leader for a second five-year term, the official Vietnam News Agency reported Wednesday.

The reappointment of Nguyen Phu Trong, 71, could slow the pace of Vietnam’s shift to a more open, market-oriented economy, but it is unlikely to alter its strategic balance in relations with China and the United States, analysts said.

Mr. Trong is a leader of the party’s old guard, which was trained in Soviet-style economics and has long seen neighboring China, Vietnam’s top trading partner, as a critical strategic and ideological ally. Notably, Mr. Trong appeared reluctant to criticize China when it deployed an oil rig in disputed waters in 2014.

But his visit to the White House last July underlined a growing view among party elites that developing better relations with the United States is in Vietnam’s national interest, and an essential counterweight to China’s influence in the region. Mr. Trong steered Vietnam into the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an American-led trade agreement among a dozen Pacific Rim nations that excludes China.

Vu Xuan Nguyet Hong, a former vice president of Vietnam’s Central Institute for Economic Management, said the party’s 19-member Politburo, which has more power than any single politician, was in broad agreement on the need for both domestic economic changes and better relations with the United States.

“The reforms and renovation toward the market economy will continue,” and Vietnam’s relations with the United States will improve steadily, she said.

But Mr. Trong’s reappointment will send the United States-friendly prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, a rival who had reportedly sought the general secretary job, into not-so-early retirement later this year.

As prime minister, Mr. Dung has overseen a wave of foreign investment and cultivated warm relations with top American officials, analysts said. He has also spoken out more forcefully than other party leaders against China’s assertive claims to territory in the South China Sea and won support from ordinary Vietnamese who believe the country needs to escape China’s orbit as a way of securing its economic independence.

When China towed a giant oil rig into contested waters of the South China Sea near Vietnam’s central coast in May 2014, anti-China demonstrations erupted in Vietnamese cities, and rare riots broke out in several industrial zones. The United States later eased a longstanding ban on lethal weapons sales to Vietnam, although Russia still supplies the vast majority of Vietnam’s military equipment.

Mr. Dung, 66, is technically barred from serving another term under party rules because he is over 65 and has already served two terms as prime minister. Mr. Trong is also ineligible because he is over the age limit, but the party has apparently granted him a special exemption, for a second time.

Several analysts predicted that the pace of Vietnam’s already sluggish economic liberalization may slow further after Mr. Dung retires this year, in part because he has a better understanding than Mr. Trong of how to communicate with foreign investors and has been more eager to shake off the party’s Marxist-Leninist ideological mantle.

Tuong Vu, a political scientist at the University of Oregon, said Mr. Trong would probably be more receptive to hard-line party apparatchiks who argue against opening the country’s state-dominated agricultural and service sectors to foreign competitors and against a draft law that would codify rights for nongovernmental associations in Vietnam.

Both changes are seen as critical to bringing Vietnam into compliance with the Trans-Pacific Partnership. If approved by its member legislatures, that deal will require Vietnam to further open its economy to foreign competition and make concessions on labor rights, on intellectual property and in other areas.

“All factions agree on a need to have more trade and investment,” Professor Vu said in a telephone interview. “But the Trong faction would resist any concessions, whereas the Dung faction would try to make the gesture of reform to keep money coming in.”

Sami Kteily, executive chairman of PEB Steel, a construction company in Ho Chi Minh City, said the country’s membership in several recent trade agreements underlined its commitment to being an active member of the global economy.

“I think it will be business as usual,” he said. “Vietnam is a country of institutions and policies not determined by one person.”

Frederick Burke, managing partner for Vietnam at the American law firm Baker & McKenzie, said the smooth leadership transition at this week’s party congress was encouraging because it highlighted the country’s political stability and respect for the rule of law.

“For people who live here, that’s what you want,” he said. “You don’t want a virtual civil war going on.”

越共總書記之爭 親中派打垮總理

越南共產黨第12屆全國代表大會26日選出新一屆中央委員會，原本有意角逐總書記的現任總理阮晉勇並未在中央委員會委員候選人名單上，他的支持者雖然在25日最後關頭補提名他，但他終究未爭取到過半數黨代表的支持而退出，也阻斷了他角逐總書記之路，外界解讀這位親美反中的總理在黨內的權力鬥爭中敗給親中的現任總書記阮富仲。

阮晉勇已擔任兩任10年的總理，不能再連任。他在任內大力推動經濟改革，使越南成為亞洲經濟成長最快速的國家之一，過去10年人均GDP成長3倍，達到2100美元，去年經濟成長6.7%，外國投資也打破紀錄。越南並和美國等11國簽署「跨太平洋夥伴協定」（TPP）。

阮晉勇被視為親美和親商，他在南海主權爭議上的強烈反中言論，受到國內老百姓歡迎。他也長期經營與商界和黨內基層的關係，影響力日增。

但黨內大老顯然容不下他的高人氣。歐亞集團的路易斯指出，黨內高層想要有均衡的領導階層，「不願意容忍阮晉勇彰顯的強勢個人政治品牌。」阮富仲多年來一直想拔除阮晉勇。

越共大老不滿改革腳步太快及日益嚴重的貪腐問題，指責阮晉勇對經濟處理不當，包括國營的造船工業集團倒閉、未控制龐大的公共負債、未妥善處理公營銀行壞帳和放任貪汙。

越共每5年召開一次黨代表大會，選出新領導人。通常在大會召開前，黨內已協調好總書記人選，但今年阮晉勇和阮富仲的鬥爭一直延續到黨代表大會開議。

依照程序，黨代表先選出200名中央委員，再從中央委員中選出16名政治局委員，今年可能增至18名，之後再從政治局委員中提名總書記、總理和國家主席，總書記必須由黨代表大會通過，總理和國家主席人選則在五月由國會通過。

但現任國家主席張晉創與阮晉勇都不在中央委員候選人名單內，兩人的支持者不死心，25日補提名他們，依照黨規，兩人必須拒絕接受提名，黨代表大會再投票表決他們的拒絕提名案，若有過半數的黨代表支持提名他們，可否決他們的拒絕提名，但黨內人士向路透證實，黨代表已表決接受兩人的退出提名。

阮晉勇從未公開宣布退休，他對26日選舉結果未發表評論。他將繼續擔任總理至5月。

觀察家說，即便被視為親中的阮富仲篤定連任總書記，不代表越南的經改會停滯，或會向大陸的南海主張屈服。華府的東南亞專家希伯特說：「意識型態上，阮富仲和阮晉勇沒有巨大落差，不過，多數人認為，阮晉勇出局後，經改的速度會較緩慢。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/28/world/asia/vietnam-communist-party-nguyen-phu-trong.html

紐約時報中文版翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20160128/c28vietnam/zh-hant/

2016-01-27．經濟日報．A7．國際．編譯任中原