Alphabet Close to Overtaking Apple as Most Valuable Company
By ROBERT CYRAN

Alphabet could soon become the most valuable company in the world.

The Google powerhouse traded on Friday morning with an equity value above $500 billion, less than 10 percent shy of Apple’s value. Investors value the search firm’s earnings from rapidly growing digital advertising more than twice as highly as Apple’s in a saturating smartphone market. Wall Street, however, may be overlooking Alphabet’s risks.

Global smartphone sales growth slowed to 10 percent last year, according to the consulting firm IDC. Reports of cutbacks at Apple suppliers suggest tepid demand for its latest phones. Analysts fear that the company may struggle this year to match the 230 million or so iPhones sold in the last fiscal year to September.

An oversupplied market could bring price wars, which could hurt margins — and the iPhone accounts for about 60 percent of Apple’s revenue and a bigger chunk of its profit. As a result, investors expect little growth in the company’s top line this year and are paying only about 10 times estimated 2016 earnings for the stock.

The mobile digital advertising market, meanwhile, should almost triple to nearly $200 billion globally by 2019, consultants at eMarketer reckon. Alphabet’s sales are forecast to grow about 15 percent this year. This wind at Alphabet’s back and the possibility that its self-driving cars, robots or medical endeavors will pay off help explain why it commands a price-to-earnings multiple above 20.

A subpar earnings report from Apple next week, or a strong one from Alphabet the week after, could bring a new name to the top of the world’s most valuable companies list.

Investors are, however, prone to overconfidence in technology trends. Facebook is snagging more and more ad dollars. European antitrust authorities are circling. Moreover, some of Alphabet’s revenue comes courtesy of iPhone users: it cost Google $1 billion in 2014 to keep its search bar on the Apple device, Bloomberg reports based on transcripts of a court case.

Alphabet is far more reliant on Internet advertising than Apple is on the iPhone. Ads bring in about 90 percent of the company’s revenue. Any hint of investor skepticism about that market could keep Apple at the top of the list.

Alphabet企業值 超越蘋果

《紐約時報》23日報導，Google控股公司Alphabet的「市值」（即股市值）即將取代蘋果躍上世界第一；《金融時報》則報導，蘋果市值雖然仍是世界最大，但依照另一重要指標「企業值」，Alphabet已在22日超過蘋果。

《金融時報》說，Alphabet股價去年底勁飆，表示華爾街對Alphabet之戀愈演愈烈；蘋果股價漸降，則顯示投資人懷疑蘋果挺不挺得過智慧型手機市場非常清楚的走緩大勢。

蘋果在2013年超越艾克森美孚石油成為全球市值最大的公司。22日早盤，Alphabet市值攀上5000億美元，蘋果市值領先不到10%，不過仍在市值第一的寶座上。

但經過淨現金調整，Alphabet在22日值4240億美元，領先蘋果的3990億美元。

淨現金值就是通稱的「企業值」（enterprise value），是大多數華爾街分析師評量公司價值的基本尺度，因為這個尺度突顯一個公司的基本營運體質。蘋果的2050億美元現金儲備膨漲了蘋果的股市值，造成一般人忽略「企業值」這把更根本的尺。

2012年，由於投資人擔心蘋果成長減緩，蘋果股價重挫45%。上周五，蘋果股價已比2015年2月的盤高峰銳減27%，是此憂重現之徵。

根據專業預測，2016年智慧型手機市場將漸陷停滯。分析師表示，去年9月為止的會計年度，iPhone賣出2億3000萬支，今年可能難繼盛況。供過於求的市場可能發生價格戰，大傷利潤，而iPhone占蘋果營收約60%，占蘋果獲利之比更大。

兩年前，Alphabet（當時仍叫Google）的企業值曾超過蘋果，只是為時不久，但領導階層重組之後，「Alphabet長、蘋果消」之勢幾告確定。蘋果的運勢綁在漸告成熟的智慧型手機市場上，Alphabet則以其看來無限的商機取信於投資人。

Google在核心業務之外雄心勃勃投資其他行業，華爾街上有人看好，有人澆冷水，但Google去夏改組成新的控股公司Alphabet，將網路業務與其他暫時比較無利可圖的自動駕駛車與先進醫藥等新事業區隔開來之後，華爾街觀感一新。Alphabet將在2月1日首度公布「非網路」投資的財報。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/business/dealbook/alphabet-close-to-overtaking-apple-as-most-valuable-company.html

2016-01-24．聯合晚報．B3．國際財經．編譯彭淮棟