Jakarta Attack Raises Fears of ISIS’ Spread in Southeast Asia
By JOE COCHRANE and THOMAS FULLER

JAKARTA, Indonesia — The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack in the Indonesian capital on Thursday, raising the specter of an expanded presence by the group in Southeast Asia.

The Syrian civil war has been a source of inspiration for violent Islamists in Indonesia, and hundreds have traveled to Syria to join the Islamic State over the past several years. But recently they appear to have sought targets closer to home. Extremists claiming to represent the Islamic State carried out small-scale attacks in Indonesia and the Philippines last year.

“In the last six months, we’ve seen a spike of planning for violence in Indonesia,” said Sidney Jones, a terrorism expert and the director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict in Jakarta. “It’s a desire to prove that jihadi groups are still alive and well in Indonesia and are committed to carrying out the ISIS agenda.”

In Thursday’s attack in the center of Jakarta, militants targeted a police traffic post near an affluent shopping area, then set off explosions, apparently in a suicide attack, outside a nearby Starbucks coffee shop. At least seven people were killed, including five of the assailants, and 23 people were wounded, the police said.

The Islamic State took responsibility for the attack in a statement released on its official Telegram channel, an encrypted phone app.

Gen. Tito Karnavian, chief of the Jakarta Provincial Police and the former head of the country’s elite national police counterterrorism unit, said at a news conference on Thursday that the perpetrators were linked to leaders of the Islamic State in Raqqa, Syria, and warned that the group was expanding its operations across the region, including in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.

He identified the organizer as an Indonesian citizen believed to be in Syria. The suspect, Bahrun Naim, is a leader of Katibah Nusantara, a Southeast Asia-based military unit under the Islamic State, General Karnavian said. The police appear to have been aware of Mr. Bahrun for some time.

At least 16 terrorism suspects have been arrested in Indonesia in the past month alone, and the police said they received information in late November that the Islamic State was planning “a concert” in Indonesia, possibly meaning an attack.

Despite the fear caused by gunfire and blasts in the middle of a major Asian city, the limited casualties on Thursday raised questions about the terrorists’ destructive capabilities. The police said the explosives used were small bombs or grenades, much less powerful than those used in previous attacks in the country, including one in which a large car bomb on the resort island of Bali in 2002 killed more than 200 people, the vast majority of them foreigners.

Indonesia is the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, with a tradition of tolerance toward other religions. A tiny fraction of the population is radicalized, analysts say, but in recent years, the country has grappled with rising tensions between moderates and hard-line groups, some of them peaceful and others militant, promoting what they say is a purer interpretation of Islam.

Militants inside Indonesia have often targeted churches, Buddhist temples, Western embassies, businesses and tourists — the very symbols of the country’s openness and plurality. Thursday’s attack was the first major one in Jakarta since the bombings of two hotels in 2009.

Mr. Bahrun served a prison sentence in West Java Province in Indonesia in 2011 and 2012 for illegal possession of firearms and explosives, and he is identified as the author of a recent blog post praising the November terrorist attacks in Paris and their high death toll. The post, titled “Lessons From the Paris Attacks,” urged his fellow Indonesians “to study the planning, targeting, timing, coordination, security and courage of the Paris teams,” according to an article by Ms. Jones, the terrorism expert.

In April 2015, Katibah Nusantara fighters captured territory held by Kurdish forces in Syria, a boon for its online drive to recruit new fighters and supporters among Malay speakers in Southeast Asia, according to a research paper published last year by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“The growing reach of Katibah Nusantara could lead to its expanding influence in Islamic State’s decision-making process, in turn leading I.S. giving greater priority to Southeast Asia as its war zone,” the researches said.

The militants initially targeted the police traffic post on Jalan Thamrin, one of Jakarta’s main thoroughfares. Video showed a series of blasts in a parking lot across the street from the post, just yards from the front doors of a Starbucks coffee shop and a Burger King restaurant. Video on local television appeared to show two of the attackers blowing themselves up near the Starbucks.

At least one assailant fired at the police post. Security forces stormed the area, and the police later said they had arrested four suspects. An Indonesian television station reported early Friday that the police had arrested three more people suspected of being connected with the attack.

The two civilians killed in the attack were a Canadian and an Indonesian, President Joko Widodo’s cabinet secretary, Pramono Anung, said at a news conference. Canada’s foreign affairs ministry did not immediately confirm whether a Canadian citizen had died.

A Dutch man, an expert in forestry and ecosystems management for the United Nations, was seriously wounded and was in an intensive care unit after surgery, a United Nations official in Jakarta said. The United Nations declined to identify the man, but said he was “fighting for his life.”

The police department’s public relations division said in a post on its official Facebook page that 23 people had been treated for injuries, including five police officers, four foreigners and 14 other civilians.

Thursday’s attack took place just yards from Plaza Sarinah, a shopping mall that was one of the few landmarks President Obama recognized on a 2010 state visit, as his motorcade rolled through Jakarta, where he lived as a child.

Numerous high-rise buildings, including offices occupied by the United Nations, lie within yards of the police post, as well as several four- and five-star hotels and Tanah Abang, Southeast Asia’s largest traditional textiles market. The United States Embassy is a little over half a mile from the attack site, which is also near Indonesia’s National Monument and the presidential palace complex.

Indonesia’s violent Islamists are made up of at least three overlapping pro-Islamic State groups, including Ansharut Daulah Islamiyah, a sort of umbrella group that claims to be the main Islamic State structure in Indonesia; Mujahedeen of Eastern Indonesia, based in Poso, on the island of Sulawesi, whose commander, Santoso, leads a band of about 30 armed men, including several ethnic Uighurs; and a group based in central Java that is believed to take instructions directly from an Indonesian fighter for the Islamic State in Syria.

The country is also home to Jemaah Islamiyah, a group that has been blamed for a number of deadly attacks in Indonesia, according to Ms. Jones. It supports the Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front, and not the Islamic State. Though the group is rebuilding, it does not appear for the moment to be interested in violence in Indonesia, she said.

The most severe attacks by Islamic militants occurred on Bali in 2002 and again in 2005, when 25 people were killed.

In 2003, an attack on a hotel in Jakarta left 12 people dead. The hotel was struck again in 2009, nearly simultaneously with the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Jakarta, and eight people were killed.

Yohanes Sulaiman, a political analyst, said Indonesia’s government had not done enough to contain Islamist radicals in recent years. He said the police had “done a good job in preventing such attacks, considering that Indonesia is kind of a messy place. What the government hasn’t been doing is to stop the radicalism.”

Indonesian extremists are known to have trained and fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s and ’90s, in the Philippines, possibly in Bosnia and now in Syria.

IS戰士返鄉 東南亞恐懼成真

2002年印尼峇里島一家夜總會發生恐攻後，多年來，印尼一再努力擺脫印尼是伊斯蘭恐怖分子大本營的印象。14日雅加達發生恐攻，世人眼光再度向印尼聚焦。分析家指出，這項攻擊證實東南亞國家對好戰恐怖組織「伊斯蘭國」（IS）的恐懼並非無的放矢。印尼恐攻陰霾揮之不去，低迷的經濟料將更難翻身。

雅加達14日發生「巴黎恐攻式」自殺攻擊，且同樣是IS所為，東南亞國家政府的恐懼成真。他們曾憂心表示，與IS肩在中東作戰後返國的國人，可能發動本土攻擊。這些國家數月來持續接獲可能發生恐攻的警告。目前不清楚雅加達恐攻是否為返回的戰士所為。

新加坡南洋理工大學反恐戰略專家羅摩克里希納說：「我們知道，IS早想在這個地區宣稱成立某個省，這個地區也有組織向IS宣誓效忠。」

他說：「在伊拉克／敘利亞地區偏激化後返回東南亞的戰士所構成的威脅是關切之一，此外，印尼也可能有自己偏激化的獨狼。」

澳洲檢察總長布蘭迪斯也曾警告，IS夢想在印尼建立「遠方的哈里發國」，「IS指定印尼為發展野心的地點，無論是直接或透過代理人。」

之前，印尼的恐攻多為本土恐怖組織伊斯蘭教祈禱團（Jemaah Islamiyah）所為，如造成逾兩百人死亡、多數是西方觀光客的峇里島恐攻，以及其後的雅加達萬豪飯店和澳洲大使館攻擊都是。2009年，印尼成功圍剿伊斯蘭教祈禱團，於一座農舍槍戰中擊斃領袖，其後並將該組織精神領袖巴希爾逮捕入獄，重創其勢力。

印尼度過相對平靜的六年後，雅加達恐攻為印尼再帶來震撼。

印尼總統佐科威正試圖將印尼形塑為適合外資投資的現代化國家，這項計畫可能因新發生的恐攻受挫。

已是全球表現最差貨幣之一的印尼貨幣印尼盾14日因恐攻再貶1%，12個月來貶值9%。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/world/asia/jakarta-explosion.html

紐約時報中文版翻譯：
http://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20160115/c15indonesia/zh-hant/

Slideshow：
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2016/01/14/world/asia/isis-attack-in-indonesia/s/15JAKARTA-slide1.html

Video：An explosion and a crowd dispersing quickly at the site of several explosions in Jakarta, Indonesia, can be seen in video by the local broadcaster Metro TV.
http://nyti.ms/1N8TE67

Video：Indonesia’s police chief, Tito Karnavian, said the Islamic State was responsible for a bombing in Jakarta that killed at least two people on Thursday.
http://nyti.ms/1RPBm05

2016-01-15．聯合報．A17．國際．編譯王麗娟