Wall St. Slides After Chinese Stocks Plunge
By PAUL MOZUR

Stocks worldwide tumbled in the first trading day of 2016, as fresh fears about a slowdown in China’s economy ignited concerns about global growth.

The sell-off started in Asia on Monday, triggered by weak manufacturing data for China and continued weakness in the country’s currency. The turmoil spread to Europe and the United States, where the escalation of Middle East tensions added to market jitters.

Global investors have been watching China warily for months, as they grow increasingly concerned about the country’s economic outlook. Last summer, a slump in the country’s once highflying market and a surprise devaluation of the Chinese renminbi set off turbulence around the world.

The same themes are carrying over into 2016. A report on Monday showed that the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted again. The Chinese renminbi looked shaky.

But there is a new twist to investors’ anxieties. Measures to help steady stocks that were put in place after last year’s market turmoil are exacerbating the sell-off in China.

“This will be the theme for the year,” said Devendra Joshi, an HSBC Asia equity strategist. “There will be more volatility.”

Few markets escaped the mess.

The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 6.9 percent on Monday. Asian stocks broadly were down, with the Nikkei 225-share index in Japan and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong both finishing the day about 3 percent lower.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off 1.5 percent for the day. The Nasdaq was down 2.1 percent.

In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 3.1 percent. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 2.4 percent, pulled down by shares of mining companies that were hit hard by China’s slowdown.

For global investors, China is a critical piece of the growth puzzle. As the second-largest economy, China drives demand around the world in commodities, consumer goods and other sectors.

The government has been trying to increase growth through stimulus measures and interest rate increases. It has tried to control the slide in the renminbi, by tapping its vast pool of foreign currency reserves. And it has moved aggressively to prop up the stock market with a series of policy actions.

But the latest economic data — and stock market tumult that followed — cast doubts on whether those efforts are working.

Despite the government’s moves, Chinese manufacturing has been steadily contracting for 10 straight months. The Caixin purchasing managers’ index for December, compiled by the market data firm Markit, fell to 48.2, well below expectations and lower than the reading in November. Any rating below 50 indicates a contraction.

Chinese demand is particular worrisome for commodity producers around the world, which have been hurt by the country’s economic slowdown. On Monday, Anglo American’s shares closed down about 7 percent, while Glencore’s were down 5.8 percent.

The pressure on the renminbi is further feeding investors’ concerns.

As the Chinese economy pulls back, the country’s companies and individuals have been looking for opportunities overseas, outflows that have weighed on the renminbi. The situation is complicated by the United States Federal Reserve’s move to raise interest rates, which makes it more attractive to keep money in dollars.

While China’s central bank has signaled it is willing to allow the currency to weaken, it must also control the slide, otherwise it risks spooking the markets. On Monday, the central bank set the renminbi at its lowest level since May 2011.

“The People’s Bank of China needs to be careful while making a fully flexible exchange rate,” said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. “It cannot create a one-way bet for renminbi depreciation. If they were to do that, we would run into an out-of-control scenario like we saw in the second half of last year.”

The government’s stock stabilization plan is also playing into the market sell-off.

A new rule, which went into effect on Monday, suspends trading in the major mainland markets when the CSI 300 index of blue-chip shares falls 5 percent during a session. The circuit breaker kicked in Monday, triggering a temporary halt.

Analysts indicate that the suspension might have led investors to later dump shares, which then brought on a halt for the day. Since trading was halted, it could mean more losses ahead, if investors remain nervous.

Another measure, a six-month ban on major shareholders’ offloading stocks in Chinese-listed companies, expires at the end of this week. The policy was imposed to stabilize share prices last summer. But now it could be having the reverse effect, leading those with smaller holdings to sell before larger shareholders do.

Hao Hong, chief strategist at the Bank of Communications International, predicted that the tough start to 2016 could continue.

“Volatility tends to beget volatility. It will more likely than not spill over to other asset classes,” he said. “Given we had such dramatic volatility, it’s really too early to see the bottom, especially now that the fundamentals are looking so ugly.”

紐時分析：亞股開年重挫 不會是今年唯一

紐約時報報導，由於大陸經濟持續降溫，加上美國升息趨勢確定，市場分析師認為，今年亞洲市場陰影籠罩，亞股會是動盪不安的一年；而亞股2016年首個交易日幾乎全面重挫，恐怕不會是今年唯一一次。

大陸民間數據顯示，大陸製造業意外下滑，加上沙烏地阿拉伯和伊朗兩大產油國斷交，中東情勢引發投資人不安，大陸股市四日應聲重挫，甚至觸發全天熔斷機制，兩市暫停交易至收市。滬深300指數大跌5%時，一度暫停交易15分鐘；重開後賣壓依舊沉重，滬深300指數大跌7%後，大陸股市下午1時34分停止交易，提前收盤。陸股和亞股重挫拖累歐美股，美股道瓊指數4日一開盤就大跌300多點，跌幅超過2%。

「凱投宏觀」的大陸經濟學家伊凡斯─普里查德說，當局引進熔斷措施，市場即會傾向測試這些機制，因此四日停市並不全然令人意外，倒是熔斷機制會限制流動性，導致股市交易更加困難，市場更往下挫。

前膽未來，匯豐銀行股市策略師喬希說，今年亞股若有股市上漲，較可能是拜公司營收成長所賜，不太可能來自市場氛圍廣泛獲得改善 。

至於沙烏地阿拉伯處決什葉派教士尼姆，沙國與伊朗兩國關係爆發危機，中東地區緊張升高，分析家認為，除非沙國和伊朗無法控制局面導致內亂，影響原油供給，否則這項因素對市場影響應該有限。

在亞洲市場，油價4日一度因中東情勢不安而上漲3%，但其後又回落至原點。由於沙國堅持不減產原油，伊朗也期望今年稍後增加原油出口，供給面暢旺讓油價面臨上檔壓力。

澳盛的經濟學家指出，他們對大陸經濟的其他部分仍能撐起整體經濟成長懷抱希望，儘管製造業疲軟，對成長不利，但若服務業，尤其是金融業表現強勁，仍能抵銷製造業的疲弱。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/05/business/international/stocks-asia-markets-china.html

2016-01-05．聯合報．A3．焦點．編譯王麗娟