U.S. Warns Russia Over Military Support for Assad
By MICHAEL R. GORDON

WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart on Saturday that the United States was deeply concerned by reports that the Kremlin may be planning to vastly expand its military support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, warning that such a move might even lead to a “confrontation” with the American-led coalition, the State Department said.

Mr. Kerry called Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, “to discuss Syria, including U.S. concerns about reports suggesting an imminent enhanced Russian military buildup there,” the State Department said in an unusually blunt statement.

“The secretary made clear that if such reports were accurate, these actions could further escalate the conflict, lead to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk confrontation with the anti-ISIL Coalition operating in Syria,” the State Department added, using an acronym for the Islamic State.

The statement did not say if Mr. Lavrov provided any sign of Russia’s intentions, but there was no indication that he had eased Mr. Kerry’s concerns. The statement noted that the two diplomats planned to continue their discussions in New York this month, when the United Nations General Assembly is to meet.

Russia has sent a military advance team to Syria and has transported prefabricated housing units for hundreds of people to an airfield near Latakia, according to American intelligence analysts. Russia has also delivered a portable air traffic station to the airfield and has filed military overflight requests through September.

While American officials have said they are not sure of Moscow’s intentions, they say the airfield could be used to transport military supplies for the Assad government or to carry out Russian airstrikes to help Syrian government troops. The housing could accommodate as many as 1,000 Russian military advisers and other personnel, according to American officials, and one official suggested that the eventual Russian deployment might be even larger. 

The United States-led coalition has been bombing Islamic State positions in Syria. The United States and Turkey are also conducting airstrikes to try to clear Islamic State militants from the northern border area and support moderate Syria opposition fighters there.

The State Department warning that a major Russian deployment might “risk confrontation,” officials said, pointed to the danger that Russian airstrikes might interfere with the air operations that the United States and its partners are carrying out in Syria, or the possibility that Russian aircraft or Russian-backed Syrian government forces might attack opposition groups Washington is supporting.

The Russian moves come as Mr. Kerry has sought to persuade Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, to work with the United States on a political solution to the bloody conflict in Syria. The Obama administration has repeatedly said that any diplomatic solution must require that Mr. Assad, a Russian ally, relinquish power.

On Friday, Mr. Putin presented his own ideas, which he said had been endorsed by Mr. Assad. They called for holding “early elections” and bringing “healthy” elements of the opposition into a governing coalition.

Mr. Putin did not say which members of the Syrian opposition would be acceptable, but there have long been tensions between the Russian government and the moderate opposition backed by Washington.

Some analysts say there are different views in Moscow over whether Russia should strongly back Mr. Assad as a bulwark against the Islamic State or seek a political transition in which he might be eased out of power.

“The escalation is completely in keeping with hard-line Russian positions on Assad, which are juxtaposed with more conciliatory positions by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 

There was no immediate comment in Moscow on the State Department statement. 

俄增兵敘利亞 難民潮恐擴大

幾十萬敘利亞難民湧入歐洲，使得打了四年多的敘利亞內戰再度成為焦點，路透報導，敘利亞和談失敗的癥結在於俄國和伊朗仍堅定支持敘國總統阿塞德，俄國最近更準備增兵敘利亞，美國國務卿柯瑞警告俄國勿輕舉妄動。

專家說，目前看不到終結敘利亞內戰方案，最大障礙是列強對阿塞德去留僵持不下。

在各路反抗軍和「伊斯蘭國」（IS）的瓜分下，阿塞德政權掌控的領土不到五分之一，連他的盟友都承認，他不可能贏得這場戰爭，但俄國和伊朗找不到能維護兩國在敘國利益的替代人選，仍堅定支持阿塞德。

敘利亞一名軍官透露，俄國最近的軍援「大躍進」，包括提供武器和訓練。紐約時報報導，據美國情報分析，俄國派一支先遣部隊到敘利亞，運送可供數百人使用的組合屋到敘國港口城市拉塔基亞附近機場，甚至運去一座移動式的飛航管制塔台。

美國國務卿柯瑞五日與俄國外長拉夫洛夫通電話，表達美方的關切。他表示，若報導無誤，俄方的行動「可能升高衝突，犧牲更多無辜生命，擴大難民潮，並增加與敘利亞境內反伊斯蘭國聯軍發生衝突的風險」。

IS在敘利亞占領大片領土，使情勢更複雜。俄國和伊朗認為，阿塞德若下台，敘國政權就會瓦解。美國也認為，敘國政權快速瓦解對IS有利。中東專家塔伯勒說：「這是個難題，阿塞德若立刻下台，對IS是一大助力，他若不下台，敘利亞統一無望。」

阿塞德看準西方希望與他聯手對抗IS，美國首要目標是打垮IS，而非推翻阿塞德，但美國仍認為阿塞德是內戰根源之一。雖堅持阿塞德須下台，但未說出時間和方式，不排除在他仍在位時組過渡政府，但反抗軍不可能接受這種安排，敘國內戰依舊無解。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/john-kerry-russia-syria.html

2015-09-07．聯合報．A2．焦點．編譯田思怡