Federal Experts: This El Nino May Be Historically Strong
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON — The current El Nino, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal meteorologists say.

But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nino rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action movie, experts say.

“A big El Nino guarantees nothing,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. “At this point there’s no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save the day.”

Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino (ehl NEEN’-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.

In addition to California, El Nino often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.

It’s also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much, Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn’t get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.

California’s state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Ninos has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1½ times its normal rainfall to get out of this extended drought and that’s unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.

Still, this El Nino is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.

NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nino to be currently more powerful than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.

This El Nino is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the “Bruce Lee” of El Ninos after the late movie action hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to Godzilla.

Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22 billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.

El Nino does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year, tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.

綽號李小龍！今年聖嬰現象 恐變史上最強

美國聯邦氣象學家說，這次綽號「李小龍」（Bruce Lee）的聖嬰現象，到目前為止已是歷來第二強烈，仍可能繼續發展成史上最強。

今年的聖嬰始於3月，預料會持續約一年的時間。美國海洋暨大氣總署（NOAA）的氣候預測中心副主任哈伯特13日說，從8月的情況看，我們預測這個聖嬰可能躋身1950年有紀錄可查以來最強大的嬰聖之一。

聖嬰現象開始時，東太平洋的水溫會比平常升高，逐漸影響全球氣候，以美國來說，可能導致加州與南方冬季氣溫的陡降。但聖嬰現象也和澳洲、印度的乾旱有關，太平洋的颶風會變多（大西洋則變少），整個地球會變暖。

專家表示，為乾旱所苦的加州和其他地區，不能期待聖嬰會像電影中的李小龍一樣，帶領他們脫困。哈伯特說，大號聖嬰沒什麼好指望的，沒有高興的理由。

甚受關注的「加州氣候部落格」主持人史旺，是史丹福大學博士候選人，他表示，目前的聖嬰加上北太平洋出乎尋常的溫暖天氣，非常可能讓今年成為有史來最溫暖的一年。

美國聯邦氣象學家表示，目前的聖嬰，有九成以上機率會，在整個冬季籠罩北半球，延伸到明年初春的機率，也從早先預估的80%，升高到85%。

太平洋目前情況顯示，現有的聖嬰可能和1997年到1998年綽號酷斯拉的聖嬰匹敵。酷斯拉讓加州冬季氣溫陡降，帶來暴量雨水，導致水患、土石流的災害，長留加州民眾記憶之中。

哈伯特說，太平洋主要地區過去三個月的氣溫出奇地溫暖，目前的情況已堪與1997年到1998年、1982年到1983年和1972年到1973年匹敵。

美國太空總署的大氣學家帕徹特說，衛星測量的數據顯示，這個聖嬰目前就已比1997年到1998年的酷斯拉強大。酷斯拉一向被認為是聖嬰中的巨無霸，不過，酷斯拉開始時較弱，結束時格外強大。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/08/13/science/ap-us-sci-el-nino.html

延伸閱讀：
NOAA’s El Nino page:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

NASA’s El Nino page:
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/index.html

2015-08-14．聯合晚報．A8．焦點．編譯陳澄和