ISIS Fighters Seized Advantage in Iraq Attack by Striking During Sandstorm
By ERIC SCHMITT and HELENE COOPER

WASHINGTON — Islamic State fighters used a sandstorm to help seize a critical military advantage in the early hours of the terrorist group’s attack on the provincial Iraqi capital of Ramadi last week, helping to set in motion an assault that forced Iraqi security forces to flee, current and former American officials said Monday.

The sandstorm delayed American warplanes and kept them from launching airstrikes to help the Iraqi forces, as the Islamic State fighters evidently anticipated. The fighters used the time to carry out a series of car bombings followed by a wave of ground attacks in and around the city that eventually overwhelmed the American-backed Iraqi forces.

Once the storm subsided, Islamic State and Iraqi forces were intermingled in heavy combat in many areas, making it difficult for allied pilots to distinguish friend or foe, the officials said. By that point, the militants had gained an operational momentum that could not be reversed.

“The dust storm at the very least neutralized capabilities that could have been decisive,” said one former senior military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential battle assessments.

The episode reveals the limitations in America’s formidable aerial arsenal and also the weaknesses in the Iraqi military’s ability to reinforce and resupply troops facing heavy attack, particularly in Ramadi and elsewhere in Anbar Province, where the government has struggled to recruit capable Sunni troops.

Although American military officials challenged the notion last week that bad weather hindered the effectiveness of the airstrikes, other officials in the United States and Iraq said Monday that the sandstorms played a more important role than previously acknowledged. Islamic State fighters have used this tactic before — in January they launched a surprise attack against Kurdish forces in Kirkuk during a sandstorm — but not with such formidable results.

Pentagon officials vowed that the Iraqis would retake Ramadi and pointed to 19 airstrikes since the sandstorm subsided.

But Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former commander in Iraq, offered a more sober assessment on Monday: “ISIL’s gains in Ramadi are a serious setback for its long-suffering inhabitants,” he said, using another name for the Islamic State, which is also known as ISIS. “It is also a setback for the I.S.F.” I.S.F. stands for Iraqi security forces.

“Setbacks are regrettable but not uncommon in warfare,” General Dempsey continued. “Much effort will now be required to reclaim the city.”

Col. Steve Warren, a Defense Department spokesman, told reporters that although “ ‘cut and run’ is a mischaracterization” of the Iraqi forces’ withdrawal, there is “a realization that ISIL has the upper hand.”

Since retaking Ramadi cannot be done by airstrikes alone, the United States is once again finding itself in an uneasy parallel war with Iran against the Islamic State. A column of 3,000 Shiite militia fighters, many supported by Iran, has arrived at a military base near Ramadi as part of the effort to reclaim the city. American officials say they will continue their air campaign as long as the Shiite militias are led by the Iraqis, and not by Iranian advisers.

“The militias have a part to play in this,” Colonel Warren said. “As long as they’re controlled by the central Iraqi government, there’s a place for them.”

Colonel Warren’s remarks were far different from those two months ago by Gen. Lloyd J. Austin III, the commander of the United States Central Command, when the fight to retake the city of Tikrit began. During testimony to Congress, General Austin denounced the militias, which had once conducted a deadly campaign against American forces in Iraq. “I will not — and I hope we will never — coordinate or cooperate with Shiite militias,” he told a congressional hearing.

But in the end, the administration modified that position and used the Iraqi government as a go-between for airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Tikrit while Shiite militias operated on the ground. That template may be reused now in Ramadi.

But Ramadi is not Tikrit, foreign policy experts cautioned.

Ramadi, the capital of the Sunni heartland province of Anbar, is a bigger city, and therefore it is much harder to conduct airstrikes without large numbers of civilian casualties. A meaningful ground campaign would be necessary to retake Ramadi, and there is also the danger that if that campaign is led by the Shiite militias, it could quickly descend into a sectarian blood bath.

“There should be no expectation that the militias can just show up and save the day,” said Landon Shroder, an intelligence analyst for corporations in Iraq. “For some, the arrival of the militias in Anbar will only reinforce the Islamic State’s messaging, and for others, the arrival of the militias will be perceived to be just as bad, if not worse, than the Islamic State.”

Senators John McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said in a statement on Monday that there were “disturbing” reports that the Shiite militias were preparing a counteroffensive in Ramadi.

“Whatever operational success Shia militias may have in Anbar would be far exceeded by the strategic damage caused by their violent sectarianism and the fear and suspicion it breeds among Iraqi Sunnis,” the statement said. “Moreover, the prominent role of these militias continues to feed the perception of a Baghdad government unable or unwilling to protect Sunnis.”

IS趁沙塵暴拿下拉馬迪 美軍沒轍

紐約時報報導，遜尼派激進組織「伊斯蘭國」（IS）利用沙塵暴來襲美軍無法轟炸的空檔，取得關鍵優勢，讓伊拉克部隊潰不成軍，順利攻下伊拉克安巴省省會拉馬迪。

美國官員表示，IS戰士顯然料準沙塵暴來襲的時機，趁著美軍戰機延遲起飛與轟炸的空檔，IS先發動連環汽車炸彈攻擊，再以一波接一波的地面攻勢，裡應外合，殺得美軍支持的伊拉克安全部隊（ISF）猝不及防。

等到沙塵暴停息，兩邊人馬已在許多區域激烈交戰，美軍難以分辨敵我，無法空襲，最後大勢已去。

前高階軍事官員表示，沙塵暴壓制住原本很有效的火力。美國官員上周駁斥壞天氣影響空軍作戰的說法，但這次沙塵暴凸顯出美國空軍的局限和ISF陷入苦戰時的補給困難。

如今官員改口，坦承沙塵暴扮演的角色比以往的認知更重要。IS今年元月就曾利用沙塵暴來襲時猛攻基爾庫克的庫德族部隊，但結果沒有這次這麼成功。

五角大廈官員矢言重新拿回拉馬迪，指出在沙塵暴結束後已發動十九次空襲。曾任伊拉克美軍指揮官，現為美軍參謀首長聯席會議主席的鄧普西則說，拉馬迪失守是ISF的重大挫敗，重新奪回得費更大力氣。

美國國防部發言人華倫上校坦承，用潰逃形容ISF撤退雖然不是很準確的說法，但IS確實占了上風。

由於奪回拉馬迪不能只靠空襲，這讓美軍再度陷入和伊朗部隊「並肩」對抗IS的尷尬處境。伊拉克政府招募遜尼派部隊不力，反攻拉馬迪需要以什葉派民兵為主力，而且已有三千名戰士在拉馬迪附近的基地集結完畢，多數效忠伊朗。

華倫說，只要民兵接受伊拉克政府指揮，而非伊朗，作戰任務就會有他們的一席之地。不過，美軍中區司令部指揮官奧斯汀才表示不會和什葉派民兵合作，還說希望永遠不會。

安全專家指出，更麻煩的是安巴省以遜尼派民眾居多，到時候由什葉派民兵帶頭進入拉馬迪，某些遜尼派的民眾感覺就算不是比IS更糟，也是同樣惡劣。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/19/world/middleeast/isis-fighters-seized-advantage-in-iraq-attack-by-striking-during-sandstorm.html

Graphic: A visual guide to the crisis in Iraq and Syria.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/12/world/middleeast/the-iraq-isis-conflict-in-maps-photos-and-video.html

2015-05-20．聯合報．A13．國際．編譯張佑生