For Emerging Markets, A Strong Run Is Ending
新興市場奔騰走勢告終
By Landon Thomas Jr.

In Russia, it’s assassinations and war. In Brazil, a corruption scandal may derail the economy. And in Turkey, the president is attacking the country’s senior central banker.
在俄國，有暗殺和戰事。在巴西，貪瀆醜聞可能讓經濟發展偏離正軌。在土耳其，總統批評央行總裁。

Emerging markets are taken on a toxic quality as messy politics and staggering economies are prompting investors to reassess their investment rationale.
政治混亂和經濟遲緩促使投資人重新評估投資組合，新興市場大勢不妙。

Compounding these concerns are the dollar’s upward march and the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve will soon increase interest rates as the United States economy outpaces the rest of the world’s.
讓情勢雪上加霜的是美元持續升值，以及越來越多人相信，美國經濟成長率超過其他國家之際，聯邦準備理事會不久後將調升利率。

Emerging-market currencies are suffering the consequences. The Turkish lira and the Brazilian real have touched multiyear lows against the dollar while the Russian ruble remains volatile after its 65 percent plunge. Even the currencies of economies seen to be in better shape, like the Mexican peso and the Indian rupee, are under pressure.
遭殃的是新興市場的貨幣。土耳其幣（里拉）和巴西幣（雷亞爾）對美元匯率雙雙創下多年來新低；俄國盧布在大貶65%後仍舊很不穩定。即使是被視為狀況較佳的經濟體，像是墨西哥和印度，其貨幣披索和盧比也依然面臨壓力。

“You are seeing all the bad things about emerging markets that originally made them sub-investment grade,” said Daniel Tenengauzer, an emerging-market specialist at the Royal Bank of Canada.
加拿大皇家銀行新興市場專家丹尼爾．田寧高澤說：「原先讓新興市場的投資級評等欠佳的壞事，現在全都冒出來了。」

Mr. Tenengauzer points to Brazil as the main culprit. Allegations of kickbacks and bribes at Petrobras, the country’s energy giant, threaten to engulf the country’s elites. But the outlook is no better in Russia, where a war with Ukraine and President Vladimir V. Putin’s erratic ways have rattled investors.
田寧高澤直指巴西是罪魁禍首。巴西能源巨擘，國營石油公司的收回扣與賄賂等指控，幾乎讓該國菁英全軍覆沒。而俄國的展望也好不到哪兒去，與烏克蘭的戰事和總統普亭難以捉摸的行事風格，讓投資人驚惶失措。

Beyond these surface problems are deeper vulnerabilities that, analysts say, will become more acute as the dollar continues to strengthen. In a recent report, Mr. Tenengauzer highlighted how, in the last five years of central bank easing, emerging markets have taken on more debt as developed markets have done the opposite. Companies in need of capital have borrowed heavily in dollar and made money off investor who were seeking for high-yielding bonds. Chinese short-term debt has exploded to $850 billion from $101 billion since 2008; in Brazil, the increase was to $112 billion from $47 billion, and Turkey’s near-term liabilities jumped to $95 billion from $56 billion.
在這些表面的問題底下是一些更嚴重的弱點，分析家說，隨著美元持續走挺，問題將會惡化。在最近的報告中，田寧高澤強調在央行五年來的量化寬鬆政策下，新興市場如何累積更多債務，已開發國家則恰好相反。需要資金的企業用借了很多美元債，從追求高殖利率債券的投資人手裡賺到錢。中國的短期債務從2008年的1,010億美元，暴增到現在的8,500億美元。巴西則從470億美元增加到1,120億美元。土耳其的短期負債從560億美元增至950億美元。

When their currencies were strong and the dollar weak, such a strategy made sense. But when the reverse is true, foreign investors take their money elsewhere, and these dollar debts become harder to pay off.
當這些國家的貨幣匯率走挺，美元走軟時，此一策略算是合理。但是當走勢相反時，外資把錢移至他處，要償還以美元計價的債務就比較難了。

Not all emerging markets are suffering. Stocks and bonds soared in India under a new reform-minded government. Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines also attracted investor interest because of their economic policies.
不是所有的新興市場都蒙受虧損。印度在銳意改革的新政府上台後，股票和債券都上揚。印尼、台灣和菲律賓，也都因為經濟政策而引起投資人的興趣。

While currencies have been volatile, capital from emerging markets has not approached the levels of a year ago. According to the Institute of International Finance, the trade group for global banks, money moving into emerging markets nearly halved last month, to $12 billion from $23 billion, with money flowing out of Brazil, Ukraine and Thailand and into Indonesia and India.
匯率一直變化莫測，新興市場的資本已不如一年前的水準。據全球銀行業同業組織國際金融研究院統計，上個月流入新興市場的資金從230億美元跌到120億美元，幾乎腰斬；資金從巴西、烏克蘭和泰國流出，流入印尼和印度。

Experts say the fact that the dollar is rising and that interest rates in the United States are moving up will entice investors to hunt for returns there as opposed to Brazil and Turkey.
專家表示，美元持續升值和美國將調高利率的事實，將誘使投資人從巴西和土耳其轉移陣地到美國去追求利潤。

The United States’ appeal is reinforced by the questionable decision-making of some leaders in developing countries. In Turkey, the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been pressuring his central bank, which is nominally independent, to bring interest rates down even though inflation is high and the lira shaky.
某些開發中國家領導人靠不住的決策，增強了美國的吸引力。在土耳其，儘管通膨嚴重、里拉（本國貨幣）匯率搖搖欲墜，總統厄多岡卻一直對名義上應為獨立機構的央行施壓，要求它降低利率。

Brazil and Turkey have taken steps to reassure investors. But as long as turmoil and scandal persist, such measures, while helpful, run the risk of being too little too late.
巴西和土耳其已採取讓投資人安心的步驟。但只要混亂和醜聞繼續存在，相關措施即使有幫助，恐怕也是杯水車薪、為時已晚。

Mr. Tenengauzer, the emerging-market expert, said he had been barraged by calls from investors about the chaos in these markets. “It’s really affecting the asset class.”
新興市場專家田寧高澤表示，他一直接到投資人的電話轟炸，詢問這些市場的亂局。「資產類別真的大受影響」。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/business/dealbook/emerging-markets-lose-their-luster-as-crises-mount.html

2015-03-24聯合報/G5版/UNITED DAILY NEWS 張佑生譯 原文參見紐時週報八版左