A Game of Chicken
BY Paul Krugman

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank announced that it would no longer accept Greek government debt as collateral for loans. This move, it turns out, was more symbolic than substantive. Still, the moment of truth is clearly approaching.

And it’s a moment of truth not just for Greece, but for the whole of Europe — and, in particular, for the central bank, which may soon have to decide whom it really works for.

Basically, the current situation may be summarized with the following dialogue:

Germany to Greece: Nice banking system you got there. Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

Greece to Germany: Oh, yeah? Well, we’d hate to see your nice, shiny European Union get all banged up.

Or if you want the stuffier version, Germany is demanding that Greece keep trying to pay its debts in full by imposing incredibly harsh austerity. The implied threat if Greece refuses is that the central bank will cut off the support it gives to Greek banks, which is what Wednesday’s move sounded like but wasn’t. And that would wreak havoc with Greece’s already terrible economy.

Yet pulling the plug on Greece would pose enormous risks, not just to Europe’s economy, but to the whole European project, the 60-year effort to build peace and democracy through shared prosperity. A Greek banking collapse would probably lead Greece to leave the euro and establish its own currency — and if even one country were to abandon the euro, investors would be put on notice that Europe’s grand currency design is reversible.

Beyond that, chaos in Greece could fuel the sinister political forces that have been gaining influence as Europe’s Second Great Depression goes on and on. After a tense meeting with his German counterpart, the new Greek finance minister didn’t hesitate to play the 1930s card. “Nazism,” he declared, “is raising its ugly head in Greece” — a reference to Golden Dawn, the not-so-neo-Nazi party that is now the third largest in the Greek legislature.

What we’re looking at here is, in short, a very dangerous confrontation. This isn’t diplomacy as usual; this is a game of chicken, of two trucks loaded with dynamite barreling toward each other on a narrow mountain road, with neither willing to turn aside. And all of this is taking place within the European Union, which is supposed to be — indeed, has been, until now — an institution that promotes productive cooperation.

How did Europe get to this point? And what’s the end game?

Like all too many crises, the new Greek crisis stems, ultimately, from political pandering. It’s the kind of thing that happens when politicians tell voters what they want to hear, make promises that can’t be fulfilled, and then can’t bring themselves to face reality and make the hard choices they’ve been pretending can be avoided.

I am, of course, talking about Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and her colleagues.

It’s true that Greece got itself into trouble through irresponsible borrowing (although this irresponsible borrowing wouldn’t have been possible without equally irresponsible lending). And Greece has paid a terrible price for that irresponsibility. Looking forward, however, how much more can Greece take? Clearly, it can’t pay the debt in full; that’s obvious to anyone who has done the math.

Unfortunately, German politicians have never explained the math to their constituents. Instead, they’ve taken the lazy path: moralizing about the irresponsibility of borrowers, declaring that debts must and will be paid in full, playing into stereotypes about shiftless southern Europeans. And now that the Greek electorate has finally declared that it can take no more, German officials just keep repeating the same old lines.

Maybe the Germans imagine that they can replay the events of 2010, when the central bank coerced Ireland into accepting an austerity program by threatening to cut off its banking system. But that’s unlikely to work against a government that has seen the damage wrought by austerity, and was elected on a promise to reverse that damage.

Furthermore, there’s still reason to hope that the European Central Bank will refuse to play along.

On Wednesday, the central bank made an announcement that sounded like severe punishment for Greece, but wasn’t, because it left the really important channel of support for Greek banks (Emergency Liquidity Assistance — don’t ask) in place. So it was more of a wake-up call than anything else, and arguably it was as much a wake-up call for Germany as it was for Greece.

And what if the Germans don’t wake up? In that case we can hope that the central bank takes a stand and declares that its proper role is to do all it can to safeguard Europe’s economy and democratic institutions — not to act as Germany’s debt collector. As I said, we’re rapidly approaching a moment of truth.

希臘、德國比狠…不會有贏家

歐洲央行（ECB）4日宣布不再接受希臘公債做融資擔保品，這個動作其實象徵意義大於實質。不過，攤牌的時刻已經接近，這不但是希臘的關鍵時刻，也是整個歐洲的考驗，特別是ECB可能很快就得決定自己是為誰效命。

基本上，目前的情況可以總結為以下的對話：

德國對希臘：你的銀行體系近來還不賴，要是出什麼差錯就太可惜了。

希臘對德國：噢，是嗎？我可不想看到你也不賴且漂亮的歐洲聯盟給摔破了。

具體來說，德國要求希臘繼續實施極度嚴苛的撙節措施，以全額償還債務，如果希臘拒絕，ECB將切斷對希臘銀行業的支持，進而讓已經很糟的希臘經濟更加惡化。

但放棄希臘將承擔重大風險，不只是對歐洲經濟，還威脅到60年來嘗試透過分享繁榮而建立和平與民主的歐洲計畫。希臘銀行體系崩潰可能導致希臘脫離歐元區，創設自己的貨幣，而即使只有一個國家放棄歐元，投資人將發現歐洲的單一貨幣大計是可逆轉的。

我們正目睹一場極度危險的衝突。這不是一般的外交，而是比看誰狠的遊戲（a game of chicken），兩輛裝滿炸藥的卡車在狹窄的山路急速駛向對方，誰也不願讓開。向來提倡建設性合作的歐洲，何以走到今日這個地步？而結局會是如何？

和許多危機一樣，希臘新危機源自迎合政治，當政治人物告訴選民想聽的話、做無法履行的承諾，然後不願面對現實做困難的決定時，這種危機就會發生。我現在說的，當然是指德國總理梅克爾和她的幕僚。

希臘確實因為不負責的舉債而惹出大麻煩，而且希臘已為其不負責任付出慘痛代價。不過，展望未來，希臘還能承受多少？顯然它已無法全額償付債務；任何計算過的人都知道。

不幸的是，德國政治人物從未向選民解釋這種計算，反而把不負責的舉債道德化，宣稱債務必須全額償付，訴諸南歐人得過且過的刻板印象。現在希臘選民終於宣告再也無法忍受，但德國官員仍舊重複老套的說詞。

現在我們還有理由希望，ECB將拒絕跟隨德國起舞。ECB宣布不接受希臘公債當擔保品聽起來像懲罰希臘，其實不是，因為ECB仍保留支持希臘銀行業真正重要的管道－緊急流動性協助（ELA）－所以只算對希臘的一個警告，而且甚至可以說是對德國的警告。

而如果德國不警醒，我們希望ECB可以堅定立場，宣告自己的角色是竭盡所能保衛歐洲經濟和民主體制－而非德國的收帳員。剛才我已說過，我們即將面對這個關鍵時刻。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/opinion/a-game-of-chicken.html

2015-02-08．經濟日報．A7．國際．編譯吳國卿