In Cold Political Terms, Far Right and French President Both Gain
By STEVEN ERLANGER

PARIS — Amid the horrors of the last week, François Hollande is widely judged to have kept his calm, acted decisively and spoken the words of condemnation, defiance and unity expected of a French president, who by tradition is called on to embody the nation.

In the days after a series of terror attacks, Mr. Hollande, long seen by much of his electorate as weak and indecisive, has had a great boost politically. As he gathered around him dozens of world leaders for Sunday’s vast rally in support of liberty, solidarity and tolerance, he seemed for the moment to rise to their stature.

But no one expects this mood of solidarity to last very long; indeed, the attacks have already sharpened his clash with the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Mr. Hollande remains the most unpopular French president since World War II. He is troubled by a weak economy, high unemployment and an underlying atmosphere of anxiety and even fear, among both Muslims and Jews, about the impact of homegrown Islamic radicalism.

In coming weeks, he and his government are certain to confront painful questions about intelligence and security lapses and whether the carnage of last week could have been averted.

“Hollande has been extremely good in this crisis, showing calm and self-control, and using all the right words,” said Alain Frachon, an editorial writer for Le Monde. “If we do a cold, cynical political analysis, he did rather well. Afterwards, of course, all these questions will be raised about security failures and the future.”

If Mr. Hollande has gotten a small boost from these terrible few days, however, so have Ms. Le Pen and the far-right National Front, which has made the challenge of radical Islam to France the center of their politics. Even before the attacks, her brand of nationalistic French populism had helped make her a credible contender to succeed Mr. Hollande in the 2017 election.

The homegrown terrorism here, with its apparent links to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, will also be used by other far-right, nationalist and anti-immigration movements in Europe, from the United Kingdom Independence Party to the Sweden Democrats and Germany’s Pegida — Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West. That is another reason so many European leaders from the mainstream parties of the center right and center left, from Angela Merkel of Germany to David Cameron of Britain and Mariano Rajoy of Spain, came to show their own solidarity with France and Mr. Hollande.

Invitees also included the leaders of all the main French political parties, including former prime ministers and presidents, like Nicolas Sarkozy and his rivals on the center right in the Union for a Popular Movement, Alain Juppé and François Fillon, who themselves are divided but also battling for voters attracted to National Front.

Ms. Le Pen was excluded from the Paris rally, however, in what many consider a political mistake by Mr. Hollande’s Socialist Party, which organized the event.

Ms. Le Pen, whose support in various opinion polls for the 2017 presidential election comes close to 30 percent, loudly cried foul. Her exclusion made a mockery of the concept of national unity, she said, and was itself a violation of “freedom of expression,” which the rally was meant to uphold. She accused the political elite of “astounding cowardice” to isolate “the only political movement that has no responsibility in the current situation, nor do its millions of voters.”

“The masks fall,” she said. “National unity is a pitiful political maneuver.”

She said her supporters would see her exclusion as a “tribute” to their power, saying, “They will have the opportunity if they wish to express their opinion at the ballot box.”

Ms. Le Pen’s embrace of exclusion perfectly fits her politics. Using old tropes of the far right in France, she took pride in avoiding the capital, Paris, which she and her supporters view as the center of political corruption and cynicism, for “la France profonde,” the “real France” of genuine patriots tied to their land and their provinces. So she marched on Sunday instead in southern France, in Beaucaire, where her party won local elections.

“We’ll march there where the spirit of tolerance is the strongest,” she said, “where sectarianism is less violent.”

Alain Barluet, a journalist with the daily Le Figaro, said Mr. Hollande had handled the situation well except for his exclusion of Ms. Le Pen.

“The problem for us now is simple: Will she be the next president?” Mr. Barluet said. “Many people are unhappy with the exclusion of the National Front from the march, since she is always emphasizing this fracture — that she is a victim, that she is the real France.”

Mr. Hollande will benefit for a time from national mourning and solidarity, Mr. Barluet said. “We’ll have to see how long this very fragile unity will last,” he added. “You’ll see, next week things will again begin to crumble.”

At the rally, near the Bastille, Nicolas Michaud, 31, said he came to defend “French values, freedom of speech and liberty — France is not a race or a religion.” Mr. Hollande and the police did well, and “he assumed his role as president,” Mr. Michaud said. Today is for unity, he said, “It’s a turning point, but divisions will resurface.” As for Ms. Le Pen, he said, “Her bread and butter is division.”

Valérie Berjolet, 50, who came with her family, said that every politician will try to capitalize on the event. Ms. Le Pen “always profits by playing the role of martyr,” she said. “The others gave her the opportunity so she could act like this.”

With the Union for a Popular Movement so divided, “It’s very difficult not to see Le Pen doing better,” said Pierre Rousselin, a political analyst and author of a book, “The Democracies in Danger.”

Faced with a challenge from Mr. Sarkozy and the center right, Mr. Hollande is trying to establish himself as the only viable alternative to Ms. Le Pen, he said.

“If Hollande can do that, it will be good for him,” Mr. Rousselin said. “This is cynical politics, and there’s a lot of this going on beneath the spirit and the beautiful slogan that ‘we are all Charlie.’ ”

The problem, Mr. Rousselin said, is that “the National Front is the only party that is saying out loud things that many people feel, and the current moment is playing into this discourse.” He added, “If you had national unity with the National Front present, you could say that we are united and the terrorists are isolated, but the problem is the infighting that starts the day after.”

At the rally, Nasser Khassani, 39, came from the suburbs to wear a placard on his chest reading: “I am a Christian, I am a Jew, I am a Muslim.” He said he came out of “empathy for the victims,” and to “thank the police and the government — not the Socialist Party, but the Republic,” he said.

But Claude Dugenet, 60, was less appreciative. “This national unity will not last, for sure,” he said. The crisis was handled well once it happened, he said, but it was “deplorable” not to have acted sooner. “Today we are suffering the consequences.”

抗恐攻加分 法總統歐蘭德谷底反彈

紐約時報指出，巴黎上周一連串攻擊案讓民調支持率低迷的法國總統歐蘭德加分不少，但他未邀國內極右派民族陣線參加團結大遊行，被批違反遊行主張的「表達自由」，讓民族陣線藉機拿下一城。

紐時說，近來因國內經濟不振、失業率高漲而被視為優柔寡斷的歐蘭德，在此次危機保持鎮定、行動果決，政治形象加分不少。但沒有人認為這股團結的氣氛能長久持續下去。未來幾周，歐蘭德及其政府必得面對痛苦的情報及安全疏失問題，民眾會問：查理周刊攻擊案是否可避免？

紐時引述法世界報主筆佛雷尚說：「歐蘭德在此次危機中表現極佳，展現鎮定及自制，用詞恰當……。當然，之後所有關於安全疏失及未來的問題，都會被人提出來。」

如果歐蘭德在此次危機中有加分，同樣得分的還有主張反移民的該國極右派民族陣線及其黨魁瑪蘅．雷朋。

無論是法國民族陣線、英國獨立黨、瑞士民主黨或德國反穆斯林組織佩吉達，這些極右派政黨或民族主義團體都會利用國內恐怖團體，達成其政治目的。那正是來自中間偏右或中間偏左政黨的德國總理梅克爾、英國首相卡麥隆及西班牙總理拉霍伊聯手參加遊行原因之一。

十一日大遊行是由歐蘭德所屬的社會黨主辦，獲邀參加者除了世界領袖，還有法國國內各政黨，但民族陣線被排除在外。瑪蘅．雷朋藉機遠離巴黎，到法國南部、該黨贏得地方選舉的博凱爾市參加遊行。

她還大大發揮一番，稱民族陣線被排除在團結大遊行之外，違背遊行標榜的「表達自由」，顯示全國團結一致的概念是個笑話，而民眾「如果希望表達意願，將有機會在選票上表達」。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/12/world/europe/in-cold-political-terms-far-right-and-french-president-both-gain.html

2015-01-13．聯合報．A13．國際．編譯馮克芸