Alarms Raised on Warming Cost
氣候暖化代價比想像的高
By Burt Helm

The unusual collection of business and policy leaders in the Risky Business Project don’t agree on much, but they concur on one issue: Shifts in weather over the next few decades will probably cost companies hundreds of billions of dollars, and they have no choice but to adapt.
「高風險企業計畫」罕見地聚集了企業和政策領袖，他們意見甚少一致，唯獨對一件事看法相同：未來幾十年的氣候變遷大概要花掉企業數千億美元，而企業別無選擇，只能適應。

Some in the project advocate a carbon tax, some want to mandate companies to disclose their climate risks. One suggests the world may be able to get by without any mandatory rules at all.
這些人有的主張徵收碳稅，有的要求強制企業公布氣候風險。另有一位認為，這世界也許不需任何強制規定就能安然無事。

The committee started in June as a way to promote a study that it commissioned, “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States.” It has since evolved into a loose network of missionaries publicizing the report’s data far and wide.
委員會去年六月啟動，為了宣傳委員會委託進行的研究報告「高風險企業：美國的氣候變遷經濟風險」，後來演進為鬆散的任務網絡，廣泛宣傳這項報告的資料。

The group is led by three men: Tom Steyer, the hedge fund billionaire whose super PAC spent $73 million last year attacking Republicans who denied climate change; Henry M. Paulson Jr., the former chief executive of Goldman Sachs and the Treasury secretary under President George W. Bush; and Michael R. Bloomberg, New York City’s former mayor and the billionaire founder of the financial information company Bloomberg L.P.
這個團體由三人領導：避險基金億萬富豪湯姆．史帝爾，他的超級「政治行動委員會」去年花7300萬美元攻擊否認氣候變遷存在的共和黨人；高盛公司前執行長、小布希總統任內的財政部長亨利．寶森；紐約市前市長、金融資訊公司彭博公司的億萬富豪創辦人麥可．彭博。

Mr. Paulson wants companies to implement and regulators to enforce disclosure rules regarding climate risk and carbon emissions for publicly traded companies. Mr. Bloomberg views the work as a way to spur city governments and local businesses to work together on climate issues. Mr. Steyer sees the research as a way to neutralize conservatives’ arguments that environmental regulation always hurts business.
寶森希望企業實施，政府主管人員執行強制上市公司公布氣候風險和碳排放的法規。彭博把這件工作視為督促市政府和在地企業在氣候議題上合作的方法。史帝爾認為這項研究可攻破保守派指稱環境法規總是傷害企業的論述。

“One side argues morality and polar bears, and the other side argues jobs,” Mr. Steyer said. “You’re never going to win with polar bears.”
史帝爾說：「一方主張道德和保護北極熊，另一方主張就業至上，你靠北極熊永遠贏不了。」

The project’s inspiration was a British report called the Stern Review, in 2006. That economic analysis, sponsored by the British government, examined all the costs of climate change, eventually concluding that the price of curbing global warming was small compared with the costs of doing nothing.
計畫靈感來自2006年英國的「史登報告」。此一由英國政府贊助的經濟分析評估氣候變遷的所有成本，最終做成結論：比起什麼都不做，抑制全球暖化代價要小得多。

In May 2014, the Risky Business members gathered at the Bloomberg Philanthropies offices in Manhattan to hear the findings of the study they had commissioned. They heard that, if the status quo persisted: Climate change would increase energy demand in Texas by between 3.4 and 9.2 percent by midcentury. Crop yields in Missouri and Illinois would face a 15 percent decline over the next 25 years. And in the Northeast, annual property damage from severe storms may increase $11.1 billion, to a total of $15.8 billion by the end of the century.
2014年5月，高風險企業委員會成員齊聚曼哈坦的彭博慈善基金辦公室，聽取他們委託進行的研究報告結果。他們聽到，如果現況持續下去，到本世紀中葉氣候變遷將使德州能源需求增加3.4~9.2%。未來25年密蘇里州和伊利諾州農作物將減產15%。東北部暴風雨每年造成的資產損失，到本世紀末可能增加111億美元，達到158億美元。

When Mr. Paulson speaks to local groups, he makes sure to bring data from the report tailored to their county.
寶森和地方團體談話時，一定帶著報告中適用於那個郡的資料。

“I’m not just having an abstract conversation about climate being this big risk. I can say, ‘Let me tell you!’ ” he said, slapping the table. “Here’s what this is going to mean to you, your industry and your family. Suddenly people are interested.”
他說：「我不只是抽象地談論氣候變遷風險很大。我會說，『讓我告訴你們！這對你們、你們的產業和家庭意味著什麼。』突然之間人們興趣來了。」

Another project member, Henry G. Cisneros, the former housing and urban development secretary under President Bill Clinton and now a real estate developer, warns audiences to budget for spiraling insurance premiums in coastal states like Florida, and to keep in mind that in drought-prone regions like California’s Central Valley, water permits may become hard to acquire.
計畫另一成員亨利．西斯內羅斯是柯林頓總統任內的住宅與都市發展部長，現為房地產開發商，他提醒聽眾為佛州這樣的沿海州保險費不斷飆高備妥預算 ，而且要謹記，像加州中央谷地這樣的乾旱地區，用水許可恐將難以取得。

Greg Page of Cargill, the food conglomerate, treads lightly when addressing farmers’ groups. He says they have been conditioned to think of global warming as a liberal euphemism for more regulation. “I ask simple questions: ‘Would you like universities to suspend research on seeds that grow in higher temperatures? Of course not! That’s all I’m saying!’ ” he said. “You get people to acknowledge that they, too, have anxieties.”
食品集團嘉吉公司的葛雷格．佩吉向農民團體發表談話時小心翼翼。他說，他們已習慣性的認為，全球暖化是自由派要求更多管制的委婉說法。他說：「我問些簡單的問題：像是你們想要大學中止研究能在更高溫生長的種子？當然不！這就是我要說的！你讓人們承認他們也有焦慮。」

Through this kind of education, committee members hope to recruit business leaders to the fight against climate change. “The whole point of all of this is that it can be mitigated,” Mr. Paulson said. “The enemies of what we’re trying to do are short-termism and a sense of hopelessness. But if we act soon we can avoid the worst outcomes and adapt.”
透過這類教育，委員會成員希望號召企業領袖起而對抗氣候變遷。寶森說：「這一切的重點是我們可以讓氣候變遷緩和下來。我們要做的事的敵人是短視和無力感。但如果我們很快就開始行動，便能避免最壞的結果，並且適應。」

Jon Doggett of the National Corn Growers Association was skeptical that the report would influence farmers much. His members need near-term incentives to cut greenhouse gases – immediate cost savings, government incentives and so forth, he said.
全國玉米農協會的強．道格特懷疑這項報告能對農人有多大影響。他說，他的協會成員需要減少溫室氣體的近期獎勵－立即節省成本、政府獎勵等等。

But, bit by bit, the Risky Business Project hopes to turn the tide. “We’ve made progress on things like civil rights, smoking, gay marriage and other things that seemed impossible to move when businesspeople joined the silent majority,” Mr. Cisneros said. “Congress tends not to act until the broad mainstream, including business, is aboard.”
不過，一點一滴地，高風險企業計畫希望能力挽狂瀾。西斯內羅斯說：「當企業加入沉默的大眾之後，我們已在民權、禁菸、同性結婚和其他似乎不可能有進展的事情上取得進展，在包括企業界在內的廣大主流加入之前，國會通常不會採取行動。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/03/science/deer-on-the-move.html

2015-02-17聯合報/G5版/UNITED DAILY NEWS 田思怡譯 原文參見紐時週報八版右