As Africa Prospers, Will Diets Improve?
非洲走向繁榮 期盼吃得更好
By David Leonhardt

For decades, the countries of Africa were the world’s economic laggards. But over the last decade, Africa’s per capita income has grown at a rate nearly identical to that of the rest of the world.
數十年來，非洲國家的經濟發展一直在全球敬陪末座。然而最近這十年，非洲人均收入的增長速度卻幾乎與世界上其他地區不相上下。

It’s reasonable to imagine that the continent is in the early stages of a trajectory that could mimic that of Latin America or, more ambitiously, parts of Asia. With the world experiencing one of the greatest extended reductions in poverty on record, Africa has finally become part of the story. A middle class is developing in West Africa, from Ghana and Nigeria to Angola. Severely poor countries, like Ethiopia and Liberia, are making rapid progress.
我們可以合理的如此想像：非洲大陸已經進入成長軌道的初期階段，類似拉丁美洲，或者說得更有野心一些，已然類似部分亞洲國家。在這個世界正經歷人類歷史上論規模之大、為時之久，幾乎均屬首見的減貧之際，非洲終於也成了這個故事的一角。從迦納、奈及利亞到安哥拉，中產階級正在西非發展成形。那些極度貧窮的國家，如衣索比亞和賴比瑞亞，也正在快速進步之中。

Along with Africa’s economic stirrings come the same questions that have confronted the rest of the developing world, especially around food. Will the economic growth prove lasting and broad enough to end the continent’s tragic famines? Will those Africans who today live almost entirely on starches like cassava be able to switch to a more varied and nutritious diet? On the continent likely to suffer some of the worst consequences of climate change, how will farmers cope?
非洲經濟轉趨活躍，伴隨而來的，是和其他開發中世界面臨的相同問題，特別是糧食問題。非洲的經濟成長能否持續得夠久，而且廣泛到足以結束非洲大陸的飢荒悲劇？非洲人現今仍然幾乎完全仰賴澱粉，如木薯澱粉存活，他們的膳食能否變得更多元，更營養？在可能遭受氣候變遷一些最嚴重影響的這塊大陸上，農民又應當如何因應？

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which has also spent more than $3 billion in grants on African agriculture, recently announced its goals for the next 15 years. Among them: programs to help Africa feed itself.
比爾與梅琳達．蓋茲基金會迄今提供給非洲的農業捐款已超過30億美元，該基金會最近宣布未來15年希望達成的目標，其中就包括如何協助非洲餵飽自己的一些計畫。

Africa’s farmers today are vastly less productive than farmers elsewhere – getting less than one-fifth the yield on corn that American farmers do, for instance. The foundation plans to finance more scientific research, new programs to disseminate that research, better food storage and more mobile phones. A more efficient agricultural sector, the Gateses write in their annual letter, “can drive massive poverty reduction and improve life across the continent.”
目前非洲農民的生產力遠低於世上其他地區，以玉米為例，非洲農民的生產量就不到美國農民的五分之一。比爾與梅琳達．蓋茲基金會計畫贊助的項目包括：更多的科學研究；讓這些科學研究得以廣為散播的一些新計畫；發展更好的糧食儲存方式；以及讓手機能夠更為普及。蓋茲夫婦在年度信函中寫道，更有效的農業部門，「可望帶動大舉減貧，並且改善非洲大陸全境的生活」。

Worries about the availability of food stretch back centuries, not just in Africa. The crux of the essay that made Thomas Malthus famous, in 1798, argued that food production grew arithmetically while the population grew geometrically, dooming the human species to a grim future.
人類對於糧食取得所懷有的憂慮，已有數百年的歷史，而且不僅非洲一地有此問題。湯馬斯．馬爾薩斯1798年因為發表一篇文章而聲名遠播，這篇文章的關鍵論點在於指出，糧產生產量係以算術（等差）級數增長，而人口數目卻呈幾何（等比）級數成長，慘淡的未來是人類的宿命。
（編按：馬爾薩斯是18~19世紀的英國人口學家兼政治經濟學家。他的《人口學原理》影響深遠，至今在社會學和經濟學領域仍有爭論。馬爾薩斯的《1798論文》表達了以下八個主要觀點：1.人口數量嚴重受限於生存手段。2. 當生存手段增加後，人口也相應增加。3.人口壓力刺激生產增長。4.生產增長反過來也刺激人口增長。5.從長遠來看，生產增長不能與人口的增長潛力保持同步，人口數量與供養能力之間必將出現巨大落差。6.性、勞動和子女等影響人口和生產力的諸多因素由個人的收支決定所影響。7.當人口增長超過供養能力時，正面的抑制因素會發揮作用。8.這些抑制因素的本質將對生物社會系統的其他部分產生影響。）

It turns out that the fruits of human ingenuity grow geometrically, too – more than rapidly enough to keep pace with population growth. The share of income that societies devote to food has fallen sharply even as the world’s population has grown to 7.3 billion.
然而實際發展卻證明，人類智巧的果實同樣也呈幾何級數成長，而且速度快到足以跟上人口增長的速度猶有餘裕。儘管全球人口已成長至73億之多，社會收入投入糧食的比例仍然大幅下降。

I asked the Gateses why food production needed to be among their big new goals. After all, private market economies have generally managed to deliver enough food, at least to countries on the rise.
我請教蓋茲夫婦，為何他們新列出的重大目標新中，會有生產所需糧食這一項。畢竟，私人市場經濟已大抵能夠提供足夠的糧食，至少對成長中的國家而言確是如此。

I mentioned Paul Ehrlich and his well-known $10,000 bet with the economist Julian Simon in 1980, over the price of a basket of commodities. Mr. Ehrlich thought the prices would rise by 1990, in a sign that the resources could not keep up with population growth. Mr. Simon thought otherwise – and won.
我提及保羅．艾利希（美國知名生物學家兼人口學家）和經濟學家朱利安．西蒙，1980年以1萬美元賭1籃子商品( 原物料）價格的知名賭局。艾利希認為物價到1990年時將上漲，因為跡象顯示，資源供應無法跟上人口增長。西蒙看法則相反，最後西蒙贏得了賭注。

“Even Simon’s view was that humans would have to change to innovate,” Mr. Gates said. Innovation is not preordained. Indeed, it’s happened much more in some societies than in others. And it has happened, Mr. Gates was arguing, because people and institutions took steps to remove the barriers to progress.
蓋茲說：「即使西蒙也是抱持這種觀點，人類必須改變，追求創新。」創新與宿命無關。事實上，它發生在某些社會要比其他社會多得多。蓋茲說，它已經發生了，因為人類和各種機構制度已採取行動，拆除阻擋進步的障礙。

With African agriculture, those barriers include roads that are too narrow to transport grain quickly, lack of knowledge about how crops fare best in some places and a dearth of basic information – on market prices, for instance – that hampers farmers.
就非洲農業而言，這些障礙包括道路過於狹窄，無法快速運送穀物；農作物知識欠缺，無法讓它們在某些地方長得更好；以及如市場價格等等基本資訊的缺乏。這些都會阻礙農民。

“They get taken by the middlemen,” Ms. Gates said. “If they have a cellphone, they’re informed.”
蓋茲女士說：「他們受到中間商剝削，要是他們有手機，就能資訊靈通。」

Climate change, left unaddressed, presents grave dangers for everyone.
氣候變遷若置之不理，會嚴重危害所有的人。

But much of the world is enjoying one of history’s most rapid increases in prosperity. Life expectancy has risen more than six years just since 1990.
不過，世界的大部分地區正享受著歷來增長最快速的繁榮。自1990年迄今，人類平均壽命延長了6年多。

As Mr. Gates says: “The world is actually improving a lot. We’re trying to deliver both the good news on the progress and the possibility to do more.”
蓋茲先生說：「這個世界其實改善了很多。我們正努力在進步和可以做得更多這兩方面傳送好消息。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/22/upshot/africas-economy-is-rising-now-what-happens-to-its-food.html

2015-02-17聯合報/G9版/UNITED DAILY NEWS 王麗娟譯 原文參見紐時週報七版左