Sizzling Real Estate Market Starting to Cool in China
滾熱大陸房市開始冷卻
By Keith Bradsher

HONG KONG – After almost two decades of nearly unceasing increases in real estate prices and construction across China, one of the world’s longest-running bull markets finally seems to be stalling, with broad consequences for the country’s economy and possibly its politics.
中國大陸各地不動產價格和建築規模在連漲近20年後，這個堪稱世上持續最久的牛市似乎終於出現了停滯的跡象，不僅對中國經濟造成廣泛的影響，還可能波及政治。

Prices are falling for apartments. The volume of deals is drying up. And developers are furloughing workers and delaying projects. In the latest sign, housing starts plummeted 25 percent in April from a year ago, the government said in late May.
公寓房價下跌。成交量也衰退。房產業者給工人放無薪價並推遲新建案。政府五月底宣布四月新屋開工量比一年前少了25%，則是最新的跡象。

It is a severe blow for a country where real estate sales offices have become ubiquitous and tower cranes are jokingly described as the national bird.
對於房仲公司隨處可見，高塔起重機被戲稱為國鳥的中國來說，這是狠狠的一擊。

Su Hua, a real estate broker in Shenzhen, had his highest commissions ever last year, as a speculative frenzy prompted families all over China to buy and sell apartments at a brisk pace. But he sat in a deserted office late recently with several silent phones on his desk. His income has halved so far this year.
去年一陣投機熱促使各地家庭快步買賣房屋，讓深圳房仲業者蘇華（音譯）拿到了職涯數額最高的佣金。但最近他坐在冷清的辦公室裡，桌上的幾支電話鴉雀無聲，今年到目的收入僅及去年同期之半。

The question is whether the slump will spill into other sectors of the economy, notably the banking system. Any weakness in the Chinese economic engine could reverberate across the global.
現在的問題是房地產市場衰退會不會波及其他經濟領域，尤其是銀行體系。中國經濟引擎出現毛病，影響恐將及於全球。

The Chinese leadership has been increasingly concerned that housing prices were rising to unaffordable levels and that the economy was becoming overly dependent on investment; residential construction accounts for one-ninth of all economic output.
住宅建案已占全部經濟產出的九分之一，中國領導層日益擔心房價漲到人們買不起，經濟過度依賴投資。

The result has been a series of policies that includes punitive interest rates for mortgages on second homes, a ban on the purchase of third homes and deliberate action by the central bank to keep short-term interest rates well above the rate of inflation.
結果就是一連串政策出台，包括購買第二套房貸款需要支付懲罰性利率，禁買第三套住房，央行還刻意把短期利率保持在遠高於通貨膨脹率的水準。

The economic data that was released also showed a deceleration in industrial production. And retail sales grew more slowly.
日前發布的經濟資料還顯示工業生產減速，零售銷售額增長也趨緩。

Chinese economists say that a severe housing downturn would most likely cause a considerable increase in loans that go into default at the country’s banks.
大陸經濟學家表示，房市嚴重低迷很可能使全國各銀行貸款的呆帳激增。

A bigger worry is the extent to which companies in other sectors have borrowed money from banks and trusts that they were supposed to invest in other business activities, but have secretly speculated in real estate instead.
更令人憂心的是，其他領域的公司向銀行貸得的款項本應投入生產，卻暗中挪去炒房地產的程度，究竟有多嚴重。

Other sectors of the economy are healthier than residential real estate, and could help sustain economic output. Infrastructure spending remains high. And the central bank has y pushed down the renminbi against the dollar in currency markets this year, helping the competitiveness of Chinese goods.
大陸經濟的其他領域比住宅房地產健全，可望支撐全國經濟產出。基礎建設的開支依舊很高。人民銀行今年壓低人民幣兌美元匯率，有助於中國商品的競爭力。

But the trouble in the housing market has serious implications for consumers. A survey released in March by the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu, China, found that households across the country had 66 percent of their assets in their homes, a figure that rises to 84 percent in Beijing.
但房市的問題對消費者有嚴重的影響。成都西南財經大學三月公布的調查顯示，住宅占全國各地家庭資產的66%，在北京更高達84%。

With so much wealth tied up in housing, concerns are rising about the potential for protests if real estate prices keep falling.
這麼多財產押寶在房屋上，房價繼續下跌會不會引發抗爭，日益令人擔心。

Discounts of 10 to 20 percent from a year ago are increasingly common for homes sold between individuals, and for new units sold by developers as well, real estate executives said.
房仲業主管表示，個人轉手房屋和開發商銷售新房時，價格比一年前低個一至二成的現象越來越普遍。

One developer said offering price discounts for the remaining units in half-sold projects was extremely difficult, because earlier buyers could demand refunds equal to the discounts. The developer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the potential for protests, and not banking sector exposure to real estate, “is what concerns me.”
一名房地產業者表示，賣到剩一半的建案要打折，非常困難，因為早先購買的客戶可能要求退錢，比照辦理。不願具名的房地產業者說，「我擔心的」不是銀行體系對不動產的曝險程度，而是爆發抗爭的潛在風險。

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/14/business/china-real-estate-falls-back-to-earth.html

2014-06-10聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 張佑生譯 原文參見紐時週報七版下