Post-Bailout Portugal and Its Challenges
葡萄牙脫離紓困後的挑戰
By Raphael Minder

LISBON – Europe’s climb out of its debt crisis has been marked by a long debate on whether the austerity imposed on countries that needed international bailouts would bring more pain than relief.
歐洲擺脫債務危機的過程始終伴隨著一大辯論：強加於接受國際紓困各國的撙節措施帶來的痛苦會不會多於好處。

Portugal’s move to exit its bailout gives new ammunition to the austerity advocates who have called for shredding European-style social safety nets that no longer seem affordable.
葡萄牙不再需要紓困，讓所謂撙節派聲音更大了。此派主張廢除顯已無力負擔的歐洲式社會安全網。

As practiced by Portugal, austerity meant deep cuts in public employee wages, lower pension payments and unemployment benefits and budget rollbacks in areas like education. Adding to the pain were higher personal income taxes, steeper value-added taxes and reduced reimbursements for drugs and doctor bills.
以葡國實例而言，撙節意味大削公務員薪資，減少退休年金與失業給付，以及削減教育等預算。加重痛苦的措施還包括提高個人所得稅與增值稅，以及減少醫藥補助。

The Lisbon government and its creditors have now concluded that the country has done enough cutting that it can exit its three-year, 78 billion euro bailout program on schedule this month. But Portugal is also demonstrating that there are harsh trade-offs that leave the economy in a fragile position.
葡萄牙政府及其債權機構認定，葡萄牙砍得夠多了，可以如期於本月結束總額780億歐元的3年紓困案。然而此例同時顯示，嚴格的交換條件已使葡國經濟更脆弱。

Such themes are common across Europe. The recovery is punctuated by serious problems that threaten to derail the weak economy. Unemployment remains stubbornly high. Deflation fears are mounting. And the geopolitical situation remains unstable as Europe faces potential fallout from the crisis in Ukraine.
在歐洲，這種話題非常普遍。復甦之中存在著一些可能危及脆弱經濟的嚴重問題。失業率仍居高不下。對於通縮的疑慮有增無減。地緣政治局勢仍然不穩，因為烏克蘭危機可能波及歐洲。

The European Commission said recently that growth in the European Union would gain momentum through 2015. But it also warned that an unwillingness to continue reforms could threaten the recovery.
歐盟執委會最近說，歐盟會持續成長直到明年底。不過它也警告，不願繼續改革可能危及復甦。

In Portugal, unemployment is still above 15 percent, higher than the euro zone average. Tens of thousands of workers have moved to Britain or Germany, as well as distant Portuguese-speaking countries like Brazil and Angola. And Portugal will still need decades to pay down the total of €738 billion ($1 trillion) in public and private debt the country has amassed.
葡萄牙失業率仍高於15%，高於歐元區平均值。數以萬計的勞工已移居英國、德國，以及遙遠的葡語國家如巴西與安哥拉。此外，葡國要到數十年後才可能還清總額7380億歐元（約一兆美元）的公私部門債務。

“My estimate is that we are considerably better off than we would have been had the program not been implemented,” said Luís Cabral, a Portuguese economist and professor at New York University. “Austerity has made a positive contribution to growth.”
紐約大學葡裔經濟學者兼教授卡布拉爾說：「我認為，葡萄牙目前的處境比不實施撙節好很多。撙節對成長有正面貢獻。」

Having emerged last year from recession, Portugal is now expected to grow more than 1 percent both this year and next. That is about in line with the 1.2 percent growth that the European Commission forecast for the euro zone as a whole this year and 1.7 percent for 2015.
葡萄牙去年擺脫衰退，今明兩年可望成長1%以上，與歐盟執委會所預測歐元區今年1.2%，明年1.7%的成長率相當。

But the bailout – secured by a Socialist administration in 2011 although carried out by a center-right government that came to power only a month later in a voter revolt – has come at a high social cost. And politics could determine whether even Portugal can and will stay on this new, hard-won course.
葡萄牙紓困案2011年由社會黨政府談妥，卻由一個月後因民心思變而上台的中間偏右政府執行，社會成本極高。政治可能決定葡萄牙是否堅守此一得來不易的新路線。

Portugal became the third euro economy to negotiate a bailout, after Greece and Ireland. But the country was not hit by the bursting of a construction bubble, as happened to Ireland and Spain. Nor was the reliability of its government accounts ever called into question, as in Greece. Instead, Portugal suffered what its former finance minister, Vítor Gaspar, called “a bust without a boom.”
葡萄牙是繼希臘與愛爾蘭之後，第三個接受紓困的歐元國家。然而它並未如愛爾蘭與西班牙般受房市泡沫破滅重擊，其政府帳目的可靠性也從未像希臘般受到懷疑。葡萄牙前財長賈斯巴爾說，它的問題是「無繁榮的爆裂」。

Portugal’s biggest challenge may be reining in public debt. Government debt has soared during the bailout program by almost a third, to €276 billion, or 129 percent of gross domestic product, compared with 94 percent at the end of 2010.
如何控制政府負債可能是葡萄牙最大的挑戰。政府負債在紓困期間大增近1/3，達2760億歐元，相當於國內產毛額的129%，高於2010年底的94%。

Portugal’s overhaul has gone far beyond fiscal tightening. Changes to labor rules have significantly lowered the cost of hiring and firing employees.
葡萄牙的改革不止於財政緊縮。它還修改勞動法規，大幅減少雇用及解雇勞工的成本。

That has helped attract foreign investment. Volkswagen recently said it would spend €677 million to expand production at a factory near Lisbon.
這有助於吸引外資。福斯汽車最近表示將以6.77億歐元擴大里斯本附近一座工廠的產能。

Jobs are being created in some new sectors. Teleperformance, an outsourcing company in Paris, is helping turn Portugal into a European call center hub. Teleperformance’s call centers employ 4,600 people here compared with a staff of 1,800 in Portugal at the end of 2010, before the bailout.
一些新領域正在創造工作機會。巴黎外包公司Teleperformance正協助葡萄牙成為歐洲的客服中心重鎮。該公司在葡萄牙的客服中心雇用4600人，而2010年底只有1800人。

And exports now represent about 40 percent of G.D.P., up from 28 percent in 2009.
出口如今約相當於國內產毛額的40%，高於2009年的28%。

Still, the austerity debate is unlikely to end.
然而有關撙節的辯論只怕還不會結束。

Like many other critics of austerity, João Cravinho, a former Socialist minister, equates the tough discipline with the German government that has been its most vocal preacher.
前社會黨籍部長柯拉文赫不贊成撙節，把它與主張最力的德國政府相提並論。

“Making Portugal appear like a very successful case and proving that austerity works in the short term is an important political message,” he said, “Not so much for us, but more for Germany.”
他說：「如何使葡萄牙看似成功的實例，同時證明撙節短期內有效是重要的政治訊息。對我們未必如此。對德國卻是。」

原文參照：
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/business/international/bailout-is-over-for-portugal-but-side-effects-will-linger.html

2014-05-20聯合報/G9版/UNITEDDAILYNEWS 陳世欽譯 原文參見紐時週報七版右